With not enough time to deliver a forecast for winter 2017 I decided instead to blog my old piece of research into references found in old texts about climate change, that old debate about whether the world is square round, doomed or saved….or just endlessly fascinating.
I am blogging this tp give fodder to the debate on climate change and global warming, with no bias or preference, just a tour of the debate over the centuries but in brief.
http://www.ebooksread.com/authors-eng/charles-lyell/the-students-elements-of-geology-hci/page-23-the-students-elements-of-geology-hci.shtml shows evidence of climate change through plants.
Paradise Found, by William F. Warren, , at sacred-texts.com
Some interesting findings to suggest that rather than being scaremongered into believing carbon emissions and burning fossils will destroy the planet ( though for sure some of the e methods of exploiting them do cause tremendous pollution and irreversible desecration of the environment), should we be delighting in the fact that climate change could take us back to our very origins. Here’s a tour of some ancient texts reportage of climate change down the ages:-
THE TESTIMONY OF PREHISTORIC CLIMATOLOGY.
Ver Iliad erat, ver magnus agebat Orbis.—Vergil.
One of the most startling and important of the scientific discoveries of the last twenty years has been that of the relics of a luxuriant Miocene flora in various parts of the Arctic regions. It is a discovery which was totally unexpected, and is even now considered by many men of science to be completely unintelligible, but it is so thoroughly established, and it has such an important bearing on the subjects we are discussing in the present volume, that it is necessary to lay a tolerably complete outline of the facts before our readers.—A. R. Wallace 1880).
It is now an established conclusion that the great aggressive faunas and floras of the continents have originated in the North, some of them within the Arctic Circle.—Principal Dawson (1883).
All the evidence at our command points to the Northern hemisphere as the birth-place of the class, Mammalia, and probably of all the orders.—Alfred Russel Wallace.
Another well-known naturalist says: “It should also be observed that in the beginning of things the continents were built up from North to South,—such has been, at least, the history of the North and South American and the Europeo-Asiatic and the African continents; and thus it would appear that north of the equator, at least, animals slowly migrated southward, keeping pace as it were with the growth and southward extension of the grand land-masses which appeared above the sea in the Paleozoic ages. Hence, scanty as is the Arctic and Temperate region of the earth at the present time, in former ages these regions were as prolific in life as the tropics now are, the latter regions, now so vast, having through all the Tertiary and Quaternary ages been undisturbed by great geological revolutions, and meanwhile been colonized by emigrants driven down by the incoming cold of the glacial period.” …..
……Professor Friedrich Müller, of Vienna, and Dr. Moritz Wagner, both of whom place the probable cradle of the race in some high latitude in Europe or Asia, lay the utmost stress upon the mighty climatic revolution which came in with the glacial age, ascribing to it the most stupendous and transforming influences that have ever affected mankind. 1 In our view the deterioration of natural environment reduced the
vigor and longevity of the race; in theirs it changed one of the tribes of the animal world into men! Which of these views is the more rational may safely be left to the reader’s judgment. Few will be disposed to accept the doctrine that man is simply a judiciously-iced pithecoid.
….We must now be prepared to admit that God can plant an Eden even in Spitzbergen; that the present state of the world is by no means the best possible in relation to climate and vegetation; that there have been and might be again conditions which could convert the ice-clad Arctic regions into blooming Paradises.—Principal J. W. Dawson.
Mr. Scribner’s answer to the question, “Where did Life begin?” human as well as floral and faunal life should be included. After examining these fresh lines of evidence it is believed that the reader will find more impressive than ever the words with which our author concludes his charming tractate:—
“Thus the Arctic zone, which was earliest in cooling down to the first and highest heat degree in the great life-gamut, was also first to become fertile, first to bear life, and first to send forth her progeny over the earth. So, too, in obedience to the universal order of things, she was first to reach maturity, first to pass all the subdivisions of life-bearing climate and finally the lowest heat degree in the great life-range, and so the first to reach sterility, old age, degeneration, and death. And now, cold and lifeless, wrapped in her snowy winding sheet, the once fair mother of us all rests in the frozen embrace of an ice-bound and everlasting sepulchre.”
RAGNAROK:THE AGE OF FIRE AND GRAVEL.BYIGNATIUS DONNELLY,
Ragnarok, The Age of Fire and Gravel, proposes that a comet impacted the Earth several tens of thousands of years ago; the impact produced the ‘Drift’ layers of gravel which have been attributed to the Ice ages; this event destroyed a civilization which had high technology, a civilization which vanished completely except for some myths; the disaster was accompanied by catastrophic fire followed by years-long cloud cover and extreme cold. Humanity survived only by hiding in deep caves; when they re-emerged they had to restart civilization from scratch. Donnelly provides extensive geological, archeological, astronomical and mythological evidence for this theory. The book is not academic and often sensationalistic, but his populist style does not seem to detract from the argument.
Today, mass extinction from cometary impact is considered mainstream science, supported by a huge body of physical evidence.
More recently the book When the Earth Nearly Died When the Earth Nearly Died by D.S. Allan and J.B. Delair  (reissued as Cataclysm: Compelling Evidence of a Cosmic Catastrophe in 9500 B.C.), brought together a mass of evidence that a catastrophic impact of extrasolar material occurred in 9,500 B.C.
You can also read how it may be that the Zoroastrians may have left us evidence that they were preparing for a nuclear disaster and how it may be that climate change is a result of extra terrestrial impacts of earth with comets and other objects…..
http://www.sacred-texts.com/afr/we/index.htm Wonderful Ethiopians
of the Ancient Cushite Empire by Drusilla Dunjee Houston
[1926, no renewal] read how the desert regions of Africa have been subjected to horrors of horrors….CLIMATE CHANGE!
CHAPTER III. ANCIENT ETHIOPIA, THE LAND.
The Nubo-Egyptian desert was once abundantly watered and a well timbered region. With the exclusion of the narrow Nile valley, all of this is generally a barren waste today. Geology reveals that in the primitive ages, this country had a moist climate like the Congo basin; but these conditions prevailed in remote geological times, probably before the creation of the delta. The changes that turned the Sahara into a burning waste in time made Upper Egypt dry and torrid. Keane describes its climate as often fatal to all but full blooded natives. Under those brazen skies the children of even Euro-African half castes seldom survive after the tenth or twelfth year. Passing southward, we find that ancient edifices occur throughout the whole extent of Ethiopia. In the olden days, the climate there was favorable to the nurturing and development of a high type of civilization and produced an Ethiopian so superior to the later types, that they were called by the ancients, “the handsomest men of the primeval world.”
The Lore and the Lure of the Yosemite The Indians Their Customs, Legends and Beliefs, and the Story of Yosemite Herbert Earl Wilson
Not only Africa but the Yosemite Valley as well…..was affected by climate change and not a motor car or airplane in sight….
‘It is known that since the beginning of time the surface of the earth has undergone various changes brought about by its cooling and shrinking and by internal eruptions and disturbances.
During one of these disturbances the region between the Pacific Ocean and the Rocky Mountains was affected. Here the surface of the earth was broken into great blocks and one of these, four hundred miles long and eighty miles wide, was pushed up at its eastern edge, separating it from the depressed region to the east, leaving a steep scarp, and pulled down at its western edge giving it a gentle slope to the sea.
The streams which flowed in diverse directions before the uplift of this block now were given a definite course flowing down the slope to the west and forming broad shallow valleys. One of these streams was the Merced River which now flows through the Yosemite Valley.
After a great period of time there occurred a second upward thrust which raised the eastern edge of the block to an elevation of several thousand feet making a distinct mountain range, later known as the Sierra Nevada. This second uplift gave to the western side a greater incline so that the Merced River was given enough velocity to enable it, through the millions of years elapsing before a third series of uplifts, to cut a narrower valley within its old broad valley.
The tributary streams which flowed parallel to the range and at right angles to the Merced River were not benefited by the tilting of the block, hence the deeper the main river cut the higher the side streams were left above it. With the broadening and leveling of its bed the Merced lost its cutting power and flowed lazily over the valley floor.
Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Vol. 1 by Edward Gibbon 1776
We can learn ever so much about the impact of climate change in this book……
Find out how Germany has been affected by CLIMATE CHANGE…….which meant that vines brought to the dinner table were still frozen posing a problem for hungry diners…and find out if the reindeer ever lived in Germany…
‘The modern philosophers of Sweden seem agreed that the waters of the Baltic gradually sink in a regular proportion, which they have ventured to estimate at half an inch every year. Twenty centuries ago the flat country of Scandinavia must have been covered by the sea; while the high lands rose above the waters, as so many islands of various forms and dimensions. Such, indeed, is the notion given us by Mela, Pliny, and Tacitus, of the vast countries round the Baltic. See in the Bibliotheque Raisonnee, tom. xl. and xlv. a large abstract of Dalin’s History of Sweden, composed in the Swedish language.
Diodorus Siculus, l. v. p. 340, edit. Wessel. Herodian, l. vi. p. 221. Jornandes, c. 55. On the banks of the Danube, the wine, when brought to table, was frequently frozen into great lumps, frusta vini. Ovid. Epist. ex Ponto, l. iv. 7, 9, 10. Virgil. Georgic. l. iii. 355. The fact is confirmed by a soldier and a philosopher, who had experienced the intense cold of Thrace. See Xenophon, Anabasis, l. vii. p. 560, edit. Hutchinson. Note: The Danube is constantly frozen over. At Pesth the bridge is usually taken up, and the traffic and communication between the two banks carried on over the ice. The Rhine is likewise in many parts passable at least two years out of five. Winter campaigns are so unusual, in modern warfare, that I recollect but one instance of an army crossing either river on the ice. In the thirty years’ war, (1635,) Jan van Werth, an Imperialist partisan, crossed the Rhine from Heidelberg on the ice with 5000 men, and surprised Spiers. Pichegru’s memorable campaign, (1794-5,) when the freezing of the Meuse and Waal opened Holland to his conquests, and his cavalry and artillery attacked the ships frozen in, on the Zuyder Zee, was in a winter of unprecedented severity. – M. 1845.
Note: The passage of Caesar, “parvis renonum tegumentis utuntur,” is obscure, observes Luden, (Geschichte des Teutschen Volkes,) and insufficient to prove the reindeer to have existed in Germany. It is supported however, by a fragment of Sallust. Germani intectum rhenonibus corpus tegunt. – M. It has been suggested to me that Caesar (as old Gesner supposed) meant the reindeer in the following description. Est bos cervi figura cujus a media fronte inter aures unum cornu existit, excelsius magisque directum (divaricatum, qu ?) his quae nobis nota sunt cornibus. At ejus summo, sicut palmae, rami quam late diffunduntur. Bell. vi. – M. 1845.
http://www.sacred-texts.com/chr/ecf/008/0080496.htm Ante-Nicene Fathers, Vol. VIII The Twelve Patriarchs, Excerpts and Epistles, The Clementina, Apocrypha, Decretals, Memoirs of Edessa and Syriac Documents, Remains of the First Ages
A good source of ancient documentation quite long but this link takes you to the bit about climate…http://www.sacred-texts.com/chr/ecf/008/0080496.htm
Are the Romans responsible for climate change…..read on….
Chapter XXVII.—Doctrine of “Climates” Untenable.
“Moreover, we ought to remember the things which have been mentioned, that in the one country of India there are both persons who feed on human flesh, and persons who abstain even from the flesh of sheep, and birds, and all living creatures; and that the Magusæi marry their mothers and daughters not only in Persia, but that in every nation where they dwell they keep up their incestuous customs. 847 Then, besides, we have mentioned also innumerable nations, which are wholly ignorant of the studies of literature, and also some wise men have changed the laws themselves in several places; and some laws have been voluntarily abandoned, on account of the impossibility of observing them, or on account of their baseness. Assuredly we can easily ascertain how many rulers have changed the laws and customs of nations which they have conquered, and subjected them to their own laws. This is manifestly done by the Romans, who have brought under the Roman law and the civil decrees almost the whole world, and all nations who formerly lived under various laws and customs of their own. It follows, therefore, that the stars of the nations which have been conquered by the Romans have lost their climates and their portions.
Origin of Species, by Charles Darwin, 6th ed. , at sacred-texts.com
Let’s see what Darwin had to say on the issue of climate…but surely he isn’t arguing we can adapt to climate change ….is he???….
‘The capacity of enduring the most different climates by man himself and by his domestic animals, and the fact of the extinct elephant and rhinoceros having formerly endured a glacial climate, whereas the living species are now all tropical or sub-tropical in their habits, ought not to be looked at as anomalies, but as examples of a very common flexibility of constitution, brought, under peculiar circumstances, into action.
How much of the acclimatisation of species to any peculiar climate is due to mere habit, and how much to the natural selection of varieties having different innate constitutions, and how much to both means combined, is an obscure question. That habit or custom has some influence, I must believe, both from analogy and from the incessant advice given in agricultural works, even in the ancient encyclopaedias of China, to be very cautious in transporting animals from one district to another. And as it is not likely that man should have succeeded in selecting so many breeds and sub-breeds with constitutions specially fitted for their own districts, the result must, I think, be due to habit. On the other hand, natural selection would inevitably tend to preserve those individuals which were born with constitutions best adapted to any country which they inhabited.
Now lets visit and old treatise named the Bible and see what Revelations we can find there …..millennia old I might add, that inform us of how old climate change actually is….THE NEW EARTH.
“Thus saith the Lord that created the heavens; He is God; that formed the earth and made it; He established it, He created it not a waste, He formed it to be inhabited.” See also Jer. 4:23-26. What caused the earth to become a waste after its original creation is not expressly stated. Some awful catastrophe must have befallen it. It is clear from the account of the Fall of Adam and Eve that sin existed before man was created. The inference is from Ezek. 28:12-19, and Isa. 14:12-14, that when the earth was originally created that Satan was placed in charge of it, and that he and his angels rebelled and led astray the inhabitants of the Original Earth, and that the Pre-Adamite race are now the demons who as they are permitted liberty seek to re-embody themselves in human beings that they may again dwell on the earth. It is clear that the Original Earth was inhabited, or God would not have blessed Adam and Eve and said–“Be fruitful and multiply and REPLENISH the Earth.” Gen. 1:28. It does not follow however that those inhabitants were human beings like ourselves. No human remains have been found ante-dating the creation of man.
http://www.sacred-texts.com/chr/tbr/index.htm The Book of Revelationby Clarence Larkin 
‘Is there a conflict between the biblical and scientific theories of the origin of our planet and climate change??
There can be no question but what the Earth in its original formation required millions of years. There is ample time in the statement of Gen. 1:1 that–“In the BEGINNING God ‘created’ the heaven and the earth,” for all the “Geologic Ages” that science declares were necessary for the creation of the Earth. There is no conflict between the Bible and Science as to the time occupied in the formation of the Earth.
Happily, we are told not to worry about the earth being overcome by a natural process of climate change because:-
‘NEW HEAVEN AND A NEW EARTH.” 2. Pet. 3:13. These words of Peter reveal the fact that this Earth is to pass through 3 stages. First the Original Earth that “perished” by WATER. Second the Earth that is now, that is to be renovated or cleansed by FIRE. And the New Earth that is to exist forever. See the Chart “The Three Stages of the Earth.”
Goodness me…. a new earth that will last forever……..amazing…
“And I saw a new Heaven and a NEW EARTH: for the first heaven and the first earth were passed away; and there was no more sea.”
Why haven’t we got a map to show how the UK was once joined to mainland Europe and other geo changes that would give us a better idea about how climate change is a natural process, pre the motor car, air travel and energy giants trying to charge us more for setting up sustainable fuel systems that none of us will be able to afford?
Such a map does exist though. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piri_Reis_map
The Piri Reis map is a patchwork which has gaps (most notably the Drake Passage between South America and Antarctica) which can be explained as non-overlapping areas between the source maps. Maps of the Ancient Sea Kings and Hapgood’s other book The Earth’s Shifting Crust, in which he advanced a theory of polar shifts, are controversial, and earned him the scorn of official academia.
A Journey to the Earth’s Interior
by Marshall B. Gardner
Finally, in 1999 the http://www.dailycal.org/ featured an article by Westyn Branch-Elliman entitled Longterm Climate Change Due to Astronomical Cycles.
‘’Climate cycles on Earth are directly related to astronomical cycles in the solar system, UC Berkeley researchers have found.
The team of scientists collected evidence of ice ages stored at the bottom of the oceans and found that there is a distinct pattern of cycles – an ice age that lasts approximately 90,000 years is followed by a warm period that lasts approximately 10,000 years.
“Astronomy is responsible for almost all climate changes,” said project leader Richard Muller, a UC Berkeley professor of physics and a researcher at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratories. ‘’
In addition, the researchers examined the astronomical cycles caused by variations in the tilt of Earth’s orbit. They found that the tilt cycles match the cycles of the ice ages.
“When we look at ancient records of planets, these astronomical cycles appear in the climate record,” Muller said.
Due to gravitational forces caused by other planets, the tilt of Earth’s orbit changes depending on the position of these other objects.
“The orbit of the earth around the sun is constantly changing due to the gravitational effects of other planets,” Muller said.
The law of gravitation is dependent on the distance between two objects. When objects are closer together, they exert stronger forces on each other than when they are farther apart.
Other planets orbit the sun, so their proximity to Earth varies over time. Due to gravitational forces exerted by other planets, the tilt of Earth’s orbit changes in a cyclic pattern.
“By using the laws of physics, we can figure out what kind of cycles (other planets) induce on the orbit of the earth,” Muller said.
The two planets that most strongly affect the tilt of Earth’s orbit are Jupiter and Venus, Muller said. Jupiter is large an massive, so the planet exerts strong gravitational forces on Earth. Venus is relatively close to Earth, so it also has a large effect on the tilt of the orbit.
“Jupiter, which is the biggest planet (in our solar system), is the most important,” Muller said. “The other planet that is very important is Venus. Even though it is much smaller, it comes much closer to the earth.”
…………………………………………………. All of civilization has taken place during this short and relatively unusual warm period, which won’t last very long,” Muller said. “We have been through 10,000 (years of this warm period), so some time in the next 10,000 years, another ice age will arrive.”
FOOTNOTE Astro-meteorologists have been watching planetary cycles down millennia using satellite technology to forecast weather and still do so proficiently and accurately today.
Astro meteorology has been around for a couple of millennia and hasn’t brought any harm to the planet. Astro mets use tried and tested and highly honed techniques, along with fantastic insights from George McCormack who used Pearce, Goad and other brilliant astro mets, to add to Kepler and ancient mariner laws of celestial-terrestrial converging , to give long range forecasts of a meteorological nature.
We use the original satellite technology that has been around since time began and you can be very assured that long range astro meteorological forecasting doesn’t harm the planet at all.
Autumn 2016 sees some good weather to enjoy as well as storms from a cyclone east of Trinidad for November, along with widespread floods and travel disruption. Snow to Highland for October, and potential for more snow late November in other parts of GB. The first week of November looks poor for W Yorks and yonder, with strong winds expected but mid November brings the weather dramas to NW Scotland circulating to northern parts of England so watch out for this. 7th-14th Nov are best for weather outlook that month.
The first week of October sees thunderstorms circulating, and last two weeks of October seem full of heavy precipitation outbursts which could affect transport to NW regions.
Temps continue on the warmer seasonal range and days prior to this phase could outstrip the headline high of Oct 2014.
Seismic outbursts to southern hemisphere expected around 27th Sept…Tonga/Polynesia region or Southern sandwich Island regions on opposite side of globe….The East coast of Georgia also looks seismically vulnerable or it may just be a revolution breaking out…………Some rain expected heavier to NW regions.
23-24th Look to have static around with humidity ruling along with mists and mizzles to east of us. Very high seasonal temps for us to enjoy but this can lead to outbursts of showers too. Cooler temps to NW regions where rain will have cooled before arriving here…23rd warmest of the two days. Durham areas also experiencing higher temps with accompanying outbursts.
25th Could bring some early morning showery conditions but a fairer oulook to folow with some lovely sunshine around during pm fetching early showers after midnight into 26th
26th Highs still operative after overnight cooling with sunshine to enjoy.
27th weather changes to South England some cooling on temps northern parts of UK some showery conditions, with short sharp showers for us around 9-10 am again at 4-5pm and more outbreaks to NW regions by late eve. Cooler temps.
28th Mists and mizzles, humidity around to eastern parts, could be patchy fogs around but skies clearing slowly.
29th Clearer outlook expects some sunshine.
30th Any showery outburst will be spartan and move eastwards swiftly rapidly changing skies sun with cloud scurrying along finer outlook late pm.
1st NW winds scattered t/storms likely from last night into this morning.
This phase is unsteady weather wise with scattered t/storms circulating and Autumnal lows setting in to remind us summer doesn’t last forever. Winds becoming lively to gale force potential as the days progress.
Generally drier during the day with scattered t/storms overnight but some days will see scattered showery outbursts.
1st Gusty Nor westerlies, localised showery outbursts, winds variable high humidity to valleys with mists forming overnight.
2nd Stronger erratic winds around cold and strong on high and exposed places producing turbulence in high stratas therefore for air transport and exposed bridge and road routes. Strong and gusty to N West so take care on mountains and moors. Sudden erratic outbursts of t/storms in many areas and some precipitation for us overnight 1st-2nd.
3rd Weather to southern England changing with more rain expected there and to Scotland, winds increase speeds blowing around clouds, but we should see some blue skies in between, temps on cold side.
4th Some blue skies with much gloomy cloud around but clearer by evening, should be a drier day.
5th Circulating t/storms to Scotland and NW now, but we should see a dry day with sunshine with static.
6th Dry but gloomy start, fair day but scattered localised outbreaks by evening.
7th-8th Northerlies are strong today trying to see off the bad conditions, winds icy, gusty and stronger on high ground. Cold sharp sudden showery outbursts around breakfast time will be short lived some blue skies around as clouds get blown onward….very cold temps. Winds could move to gale force for some regions…..
9th Appears to be a dry day with precipitation in very early hours–heavy at times, but winds still strong blowing away clouds that scurry by.
10th Seems like a fair to fine Autumnal day
11th Strong northerlies around with milder temps arriving but not reliable, some mists and haze over watery places, generally fine to fair day otherwise.
12th Cold to varying temps with snow herald for Scotland’s Highlands, skies clearer for us by sunrise, could even be some frost around.
13th Whippy westerlies, some blue skies, easterlies with gloomier outlook to south but much fairer for us in the north.
14th Weather moving quickly along with more touches of frost around or ovenight mists, fair Autumnal conditions continue
15th -16th Potential precipitation around the start of the day with a promise of some blue skies with icy temps especially on high or exposed places…..short sharp showers could break out to the west, arriving here by 17th…
Not a dry phase and many GB areas will get heavy precipitation around 18th.
16th Generally dry with any showers further to west of our region, where it will be heavier.
17th Fair seasonal outlook, breezy, potential frost overnight.
18th Some haze and early morning rain expected during the day. very heavy and prolonged.
19th Rain to west of us continues heavy, varying temps but sunshine and warmth by mid day for us.
20th Find mid day but Rain 4pm approx, but temps varying from mild to very cold depending on whether you are on high exposed places. Clearer night skies but some erratic gusty winds about continuing into tomorrow
21st-22nd some overnight frosts likely but temps warm in mid day sunshine, winds less active 21st, 22nd warmer day although some northerlies could start up.
Not too confident for this phase so don’t use the forecast for anything important………
It does appear to show potential floods to western regions due to heavy precip there on previous days and more added during this phase.
Generally this phase can be greatly unsettled with generally drier outlook early morning to mid day, but no guarantees.
22nd A fair day but growing unsettled towards late evening
23rd Winds active, but some serene weather otherwise
24th Rain, heavy from 2am
25th-27th Cold but weather improves, nice afternoon 26th fast moving systems by 27th
28th rain likely to western parts causing some problems with floods on roads, gale force winds breaking out, likely across southern shores but also high places to NW for a few days with rain brought our way by 30th around 5-8 pm
A quick tour of this phase which continues the gloomier or droll weather trend with some dull skies around as easterlies prevail along with fogs, haze mists and mizzly outbursts. The Taurids are expected to play in the skies on 5th but clouds could hinder full view of the spectacle. Winds have potential to be very strong, erratic and troublesome to northern and high regions 5th-7th.
30th Rain early morning and dull skies around damp and humid atmosphere
31st Unsettled some good vying with bad trends nothing settles
1st more mellow but haze and mist to low lying places, winds around but not gale force!
2nd Rain looks to be travelling clockwise east and down southern ways, still atmosphere and could see some sun between clouds for us
3rd -4th A warming trend if sun peeks out mid day, high humidity around
5th Southern Taurids display, but expect sun with cloud to continue bewildering any attempts at good weather.
6th mists mizzles and haze around much of GB, snow and frost on high or exposed places autumnally cool.
7th Some strong winds across northern parts sun with cloud expected.
7th -14th Nov
Some thunderstorms expected and likely dates are 12th-13th when conditions get wild and very unsettled. This will interfere with those wanting to see the display of northern Taurids on 12th, but the drama of the weather will more than make up for it!
7th Looks unsettled and a little wild but some fair conditions after mid day
8th Looks like a fair to fine day
9th Fair till evening when showers may arrive
10th Seems fair Autumn day
11th Some haze around but any weather conditions soon move onwards quickly
12th-13th Stormy outlook very unsettled with winds active and gusty too
14th Perigee moon read on……………………..
Stormy outlook batten down the hatches, and if you are out at sea check the shipping forecast for this phase.
14th Sees perigee Full Moon the closest of 2016 so a very intense weather outlook expected.
Cyclone forming to East Trinidad travels here by 23rd, creating sea turbulence for 16th-18th to NW Scotland then travels NE direction to northern England over following days bringing much rain in with strong winds and turbulent weather.
Expect very heavy rain 16th-18th, and unsettled conditions continuing till 23rd. Stormy conditions expected for this phase.
17th Might be too busy weather-wise to see the Leonids display………………….
Seismic events expected for Germany 10E 15 53N15 , while Neptune looks active over the Azores….watch that space…
This phase has two halves.
Neptune, Lord of the sea is very powerful now going Direct with his rule on 21st and watch the seas to note his strength. T/storms breaking out in response, with floods likely to NW and lake areas as precipitation adds to former rainfall causing traffic and transport problems, farmers may need help taking sheep away from flood zones.
The cyclone I told of last phase is swinging around fetching t/storms 20th-23rd, dull easterlies causing gloom and cloudy skies, but precipitation continuing again by 24th, adding to floods and stormy outbursts.
The second half of phase begins on 25th when clearer weather is expected to fetch a brighter day to clear up the mess left by this storm outburst and strong winds on 26th help dry things out.
27th Sees potentially more precipitation for some regions this could be frost or snow.
28th-29th Drier with windy conditions……..feeling decidedly wintery!!
Expect some drier conditions during sunrise to sunset but some snow and frost around to keep everyone on their toes.
29th frosty with potential for some snow to fall, clear blue skies and sunshine to enjoy.
Similar over next few days with some gusty northerlies active from 2nd-7th while 1st sees seasonally cold temps arrive to warn of winter coming in.
6th looks good with bright conditions and blue skies but gusty winds which become erratic and stronger by 7th. Frosts prevail by 7th too.
Not a happy weather phase as conditions become more wintry and heavy precipitation wil add to water logged areas of previous weeks. Far North West regions could be flood prone at this time
10th is singled out as the day for heavy rain to begin across GB including London. I expect record levels to fall to the western regions for this phase.
7th-8th Are gusty with wind chill and frost looks likely. Weather systems move rapidly so don’t expect the bad or good outbursts to stay around for long as conditions are not reliable or stable and soon change.
9th looks gloomy, breezy and cold with potential showers around 7-8am onwards, heavy clouds forming by mid day, but clearer outlook late at night into early morning.
10th IT WILL RAIN. The rain will be prolonged with a damp gloomy cloudy atmosphere prevailing over a few days now, rain can turn to sleet and snow then back to rain again, outlook can see storminess to northern GB, chilly days ahead.
11th continues gloom of yesterday and i expect icy conditions overnight with frost likely on roads so drive carefully. Winds active too today so any lying snow in any region will drift.
12th Moon is perigee today, temps icy some showery outburst, sporadic and intermittent. Skies could begin to clear to icy blue over next few days.
14th Geminid Meteor showers should be visible as overnight skies get clearer with less cloud, but we will see more winter showers today in our region moving eastwards, heavier by evening. Temps peak today at wintery cold.
The good news in the run up to Christmas and Pagan festivities is that this should be a week of some days with spectacular icy blue skies with sunshine, but less to no cloud overnight means that it will be icy temps so watch out when travelling on icy roads. Temps gradually moderating by the end of the phase when more cloud develops.
The weather is much more settled this phase and more reliable.
14th as previously forecast, while 15th is set to be a fine Autumn/wintery day but cold, frosty and icy underfoot.
This theme continues over next four days, allowing some respite from unsettled weather on previous weeks just in time to get festival shopping done.
20th sees some clouds forming but will be cold frosty overnight, though some milder conditions sees a gentle thawing.
21st SOLSTICE today so get your long pagan dress out and celebrate the astronomical start of Winter in the northern hemisphere.
An extremely seismic phase for some regions of the globe. Southern hemisphere re SW Australia region likely to experience this event 22nd, with cusp of Chinese republic and Islamabad also vulnerable, but by 25/26th we may get repercussions from a massively powerful opposition by Jupiter and Uranus spanning the region W Yorks/Leeds city so will be watching to see how this plays out. Potentially a trend for wild NW strong winds knocking down pylons, trees and comms systems as well as interfering with air travel by 26th, but hopefully I am wildly wrong due to Mercury zapped at perihelion!
Chronic cold conditions begin to ease for tis phase. Frost and snow could still be lying around at the start, but as days continue thawing gradually takes place getting stronger by 29th December when temps will be much milder.
21st-24th sees some sunny days with cloud around. Ursid shower display on 23rd, cloudier conditions by 24th when gustiness greets the day and perhaps a gloomy air to greet the day, and rain could potentially arrive before sunrise on 24th but wont stay around.
25th The fairest day of the bunch, 3/4 Moon phases usually bring in storms or turbulence. Some fair conditions operating by mid day after a fine start, but some high northern altitudes could see snowfall or frosts forming today. Skies should be brilliant and clear good for photographers by late pm.
26th Brings strong and erratic winds, seismic shocks and comms problems and pylons swaying around, while overnight into 27th a gloomy air prevails with potential for more winter showers, so a bit of a stormy feel around.
27th mists or cloudy some blue sky might be a rare sight while 28th-29th brings some sun between isolated patchy rain spells with haze mists if not mizzles, humid with much mild winter temps.
Autumn Weather 2015.
Using satellite technology, all astro mets are able to see further ahead than traditional met methods allow, and use ancient satellite technology tried and tested for thousands of years.
I forecast for W Yorks N Yonder to make sure I can monitor my success rate as met forecasts often are different to what the outcome is.
Because micro weather patterns often circulate, such as mists, mizzles to valleys as Addingham, Ilkley and Otley, while hail and sleet can also travel micro style, as do some static showers, it takes too long to track them and would make the weather report too unwieldy to read, so if the forecast is for dry but over the road from you there is a shower or mist, this is the reason why.
10th-20th Oct looks stormy with flash floods likely, and Christmas could see high levels of precipitation with threat of floods for the season for some regions.
Many changes as equinox arrives 23rd September with shifting planetary positions and move to closest perigee Moon 2015, adversely affecting the weather. Flash floods expected to headline to locations 24 east longitude of Britain. Rains will be heavy to East Britain around 26th, with 25th beginning the breeding of stormy outbursts to low lying areas in west regions; Ireland vulnerable to these, but they will travel over our way before moving eastwards. Expect choppy seas growing wilder over coming days with high tides causing probs on coastlines with mists n mizzles more likely to eastern shores.
14th-16th September sees more afflictions to East Asia regions such as China, Taiwan/Japan areas.
21st Sun with cloud, temps low to mod for season, some NE breezes, and any rainy outbursts will be further out to western regions of W Yorks.
22nd Clearer skies promising a fair day around sunrise but sporadic showers expected to come in as day progresses, heavier to west. Unsettled by late eve along with localised static outbursts to our region and yonder.
23rd Very unsettled today as the Sun moves into the southern hemisphere, with temps variable but some blue skies around and cool with much colder conditions to high or exposed places such as the Chevin, moors and highlands. Sudden sporadic micro hail or sleet showers can move around but wont be long lasting from 7-8 am and intermittently t/out the day and into next morning.
24th More rainy outbursts expected combined with northerlies trying to clear away the unsettled weather of previous days.
25th -26th Gusty westerlies around with a bright start 25th combining with gusty westerlies, but some stormy outcomes breeding to low lying areas indicating more unsettled weather, with very heavy rains forming flash floods expected further eastwards as referred to above, East Anglia may also see heavy rains. Mists, mizzles fogs and drizzles to eastern Brit generally.
27th A faster moving weather system begins to flow with warmer temps today but mugginess, could be misty start, cloud around and humidity. NE speedy winds arrive today
28th Sept-4th Oct
Temps begin to climb this phase peaking around 3rd. Expect clearer overnight skies generally, but some mugginess and clouds delivers mists and high humidity with clouds preventing sun shining fully during the day. The East coast of Britain gets the highs of the season, so book now to make the most of what looks like a mini Indian Summer coming in….
Some of the disturbances of previous week still operate and in W Yorks and Yonder there will be still some electrical outbursts with power lines affected, more fires to buildings could be in news.
28th Some warmth but also static outbursts. Winds strong NW with high areas more vulnerable to these speedy outbursts.
29th-4th looks likely to have showery outbursts due to rising temps, so humidity is high but rains can be refreshing. Winds die out after 30th.
1st Can be calm, misty, muggy in areas such as Addingham, Ilkley and other valleys, but higher ground should show a clearer outlook. A sultrier outcome prevails to southern Britain where mists and mizzles due to higher temps will be found. Around 2–5 am some mists and mizzles with cloud around to many Brit areas, but clearing for a better evening later in the day.
2nd-4th Windy/breezy with clearer skies indicating sunshine and warmth from sun and seasonal highs. Could be some sea disturbances NW Scotland region 1st-2nd so watch out for ocean news if you are a seabird.
4th Oct-13th Oct
Unusual Autumnal weather circulating and I had to look further than W Yorks and yonder to see what is going on and how it will break over our region as it travels. no guarantees due to some conflicting patterns making it difficult to see which would prevail.
Some sea disturbances moving around SE Anglia, Kent regions will create hazards for sea goers around 5-7th….but 6th is most likely day for culmination. Fruits and flowers affected by either drought for some regions, and humidity for others mould breeding conditions seem widespread.
Fogs mists and mizzles prevail more to eastern quarters, with some mini thundery showers circulating t/out this phase due to static build up as rising warmth hits falling lows.
4th Scattered showery outburst attempts from 6-10 am, with temps warming mod to high seasonal temps but causing static outbursts of hail and sleet by the evening rush hour.
5th Drier sun with cloud.
6th-7th A lot going on today with semi tropical lows off-shore East Anglia/Kent coastal regions migrating north-eastwards towards northern Midlands and further westwards during next few days. Troubled waters off-shore expected so check seagoing services.
Expect clouds to W Yorks and yonder as this humidity rises north, but fairer outcomes to our region than these southern parts. Further west of us on 6th another system shows some static creeps in around mid day and with an easterly wind/weather pattern we get some muggy atmospherics to contend with Some rain could break out but is more likely in southern GB and western areas.
By 7th Some mini cloudburst expected mostly in valleys where haziness is likely to prevail around watery places. Static, hazy and humid fungal, breeding weather travelling from S E towards NW regions.
8th-9th Cloud, mists mizzly, sultry and still but also foggy breakouts affecting traffic flow by rush hour after work, so visibility not clear. This looks like a damp wet and muggy day with southerly air flows keeping things muggy.
10th cooler temps around with clearer skies trying to break out some gusty breezes or winds helping move clouds away but this could be a day when thundery outbreaks arise, more evident to eastern parts.
11th Rain, sleet clouds and easterlies keeping things overcast, damp conditions if not heavy rain, fogs and mists to coast and inland valleys. It is fairer much further north from 10th-13th and we benefit too fairing better than southern regions, but with news of snow on mountains of Scotland not out of the question.
12th Looks cold overcast, gloomy and bleak with more lightening/ thundery outbursts….clearer better even sunnier outlook by evening around sunset…but read on will double check this…
An exceedingly excitable weather phase with violent and intense electrical t/storms with lightening strikes, strong winds and floods expected, causing travel chaos and some damage to transport routes including M 62 and M1 and roads adjoining and city wide. Here is a quick tour rather than a detailed analysis……this is a very spectacular, dramatic and awesome weather phase. Normally a new moon brings rain from evenings into the night and at the outset this is the case, but with such strong celestial combinations it could be overruled and due to so much going on it would take too much space to record every detail of it.
12th-13th sees a taste of stormy outbursts stronger to western extremities i.e. Cornwall, Wales, NW Scotland and centring on Irish Sea. Ireland gets rising temps while mainland GB and W Yorks and yonder gets clearer skies but lower temps and we will hear of hail, sleet even snow to high ground. N Westerlies become strong and powerful during this phase. Winds will be howling around too.
13th-15th fairer days with 13th showing last pitch of rainy outbursts 6-8 am likely to finish off outpourings coming in from 12th with a fairer day to follow. Temps will be cold but skies will be clear and blue but winds will be strong and blustery blowing off your hat. Some quick showery outbursts intermittent, but mostly blue skies in between. 14th should be drier and more reasonable weather although a few scattered showers may break out, but by 15th strong winds continue with rising temps to west and t/storms can cause problems to transport routes.
16th More cracking electrical outbursts and there will be high amounts of speedy rainfall potentially creating floods to routes and places near rivers and lakes. Flash floods more likely further to western areas as we see heavy rain moving eastwards too. For us there should be some warmth and clearing occasionally to bluer skies with sunny spells alternating with sudden hail or sleet. Do prepare for the worst even if the skies seem to promise the best when you set off as these systems are speedy and can catch up with you with little warning.
17th Flood problems still trouble western regions where fogs and mists create low visibility, we may have fairer weather but the NW winds can soon scatter rogue showers around intermittently.
18th Storms still circulating with NW very strong it will be 19th before this drama of cracking static weather passes on leaving some destruction in its wake.
Temps are cooler but at least accompanied by calmer weather. Frosts likely but we will see some sunshine along the way.
20th-21st Some cloud around but a calmer autumn outlook with sunshine once mists clear, mini sporadic outbursts likely to 21st but this wont spoil outdoor events.
22nd Some gusty spurts around cheeky at times with cold frosts to keep you on your toes.
23rd Could see some precipitation, intermittent by late afternoon, cloud, mists and some unsettled weather but fair weather should prevail during the day.
24th Cold and cutting with gusty NW breezes/winds…this looks hazardous out to seas to Eastern regions. Frosts highly likely to form.
25th Looks like another good days for outdoors with fresh atmosphere, but very cold, though exhilarating. Some NW to nip your exposed extremities too.
26th Sporadic hail and sleet showery stuff around with gusty breezes turning windy and keeping things cold feeling wintery. Frosts also likely.
27th Very strong windy weather today likely to turn into gales to NW and on high ground..
27th Oct-3rd Nov
Strong winds and gales continue for the first two days of this phase, blustery weather as temps decline steadily. This is when we glimpse winter ahead.
Clearer skies at night allow temps to fall but this will please sky gazers.
It will be mountains, Pennines and moors that get the worst of some of the blasts blowing over with snow likely on very high ground.
27th-28th Very strong winds around with sudden spurts of speedy velocity, cold and cutting. Winds bring some rain on its wings and by 28th snow on high ground is expected, along with some sleet and strong NW Frost expect late night 28th. Cold, sunshine and cloud and windy weather for these two days with exhilarating fresh air to take your breath away.
29th Still windy but not as wild as previous days. Sunshine after a frosty start some roads could be icy. It seems too cold to allow rain to fall, but beyond W Yorks, to far west may have some outpourings today
30th The day seems sunny with cloud around, could be some freezing mists around valleys and low lying roads near watery areas.
31st Temps peak to coldest but a very bright sunny day expected.
1st-3rd Breezy conditions which can turn into whippy westerlies, frost around, some sunshine with cloud…..but read on for 3rd.
Indications are of a more settled phase with some gentle showery weather mostly overnight, and coldest temps gradually subsiding as 7th arrives.
3rd Looks to have sunshine and northerlies less active, but still chilly. Rain expected overnight into early 4th, bonfire piles will need to be kept dry if you want a good blaze for bonfire night— a little rain stills a great wind. Cloud and sunshine around for 4th -5th with more cloud expected to cover views of Taurids meteor showers. Cool but dry for 5th.
6th Looks fair by mid day some mists around watery places. Sudden winds spurts or breezy outbursts around today.
7th -10th Temps seasonally milder, with some showery outbursts. Clouds around with sun spells and mists/fogs likely.
11th Brings rain for the evening which will move eastwards overnight.
11th can bring some showery outburst mid morning but this should be a fair day with sunshine.
12th Taurids are lively for sky watchers at night and sudden wind spurts will keep clouds moving to give occasional view of the night sky.
13th Northerlies seem strong today but outlook is for fair with fresh atmosphere after a cloudy night.
14th Rain or showers could miss our region, though some tail ends could be blown in by the wind mid morning. Cool with sunshine likely.
15th Some mists and clouds around but the afternoon should be sunny and fine. Windy outdoors
17th-18th Scattered showers likely, intermittent and sporadic turning to hail and sleet showers by 18th. The winds get extra lively for next few days. The Leonids may be difficult to spot with some cloud around.
19th Continuing windy with sun and clouds but also some showery weather later in the day……read on
Not a pleasant outlook at all could turn out stormier than the outlook forecast for some isolated regions. News of landslides highly likely. Regions around John O Groats, Dundee, Gloucester, Cornwall, Blackpool, Keswick, Wigton regions look to encounter the worst of this weather and landslides could affect mountains and coastal areas.
Mists and mugginess can prevail with unsettled weather to come. Risk of high levels of rain from mid afternoon 19th creating isolated flash floods and very damp humid atmosphere.. Damp and oppressive weather around, not good for planning outdoor activities.
The 20th is unsettled with rains continuing and shows a little sun, with a lot of cloud also some winds racing around taking heavy rains eastwards. 22nd will see mini whirlwinds to some localities.
Excess cloud around and temps lowering again after 21st with potential for ice to form. Snow for mountains and Pennines peaks by 23rd when winds get wild and nasty, with cold, frosty outlook for us 23rd/ 24th onwards. 25th Continues the dark, dull gloomy weather with hazes, mists and fogs around and variable winds battling it out in sudden spurts.
25th Nov 2nd Dec
This phase should see an eventual turnaround on previous gloomy wet damp conditions. Temps get much colder and bring frost over, some iciness expected and it looks too cold to rain though some sporadic hail or sleet could affect isolated locales. Weather settles into cold frosty and less agitated by 27th for a few days and by 1st December it is looking very wintery.
Winds turning northerly to clear away the bad and bring in more settled outlook but will be chilly. 25th-29th has clearer calmer weather with sunshine, overnight frosts expected. 30th holds potential for showers around London areas, and 2nd could bring some winter showers to our regions.
Weather system flowing in from the East could be making headlines, as it did 13th 14th August when heavy rains came over from Spain and beyond. Some static conditions mean we can expect a few sleet and hail outbursts for this phase. Flash floods expected to cause problems to the western areas the general trend is for very heavy precipitation 3rd-5th causing more flash floods circulating to some southern regions too as with 13th/14th August.
This phase will prove extra stormy for Cork, Lewis and Stornaway with snow for Glencoe expected and a little turbulent for us too.
Some precipitation potential lingers to the west threatening to travel here to dampen our parade early morning on 3rd but we should see some sunshine breaking out in the afternoon with clearer skies by eve.
4th brings in some invigorating trends with blue skies and sunshine but winter temps leave an intense chill.
5th A little unsettled today and a mix of precipitation potential so winter outbursts likely with snow, sleet and hail in the mix, and some nippy breeziness to contend with.
6th Onwards continues chilly but less likelihood of showery outbursts, although 7th could see winter outbursts to eastern parts after sunrise. 8th sees northerlies active while 9th and 10th is cold but with sunshine around and some blue skies mid afternoon could bring some winter outburst around mid afternoon both days some sleet and snow expected.
11th Is when static brings down more cutting rain, hail, sleet and snow
The last three days will see likelihood of higher levels of winter showers crossing Gloucester, John o Groat’s regions.
Gusty wind patterns for this phase but these can send clouds scurrying along and help dry out any winter precipitation.
11th sees some strong hail and sleet showers with gusts of NW. Air travel could be disrupted around these days, especially for those going to Iceland to see Santa, make sure your travel is insured. Disruptive weather mid Atlantic will interfere with journeys crossing them. Mists and fogs potential for early morning today and 12th, with some regions of UK seeing snow and sleet attempts.
13th-16th NW gusty weather, some haze, mist and cloud but with temps on the seasonally mod to mild side these won’t be freezing mists. Some showery outbursts around 8-10 pm on 13th, and evening to sunrise from 14th-15th with sunshine and cloud during the day. 16th continues the scattered showers theme but these will not be long lasting, though will cause mists to valleys.
17th Cloudy and misty start looks likely to be more cloud than sun today, Rain could be heavy over to far west regions
18th Doesn’t look healthy….read on
Temps move towards very cold and wintery, turning to frosty by the last few days, with some bleak weather around for Christmas shopping.
The West coastal regions get covered in fogs mists and mizzles around the winter solstice on 22nd this year when the sun i giving Australia a dose of summer, and bringing us an awareness of how gloomy winter can be.
18th Winds with rain, scattered showery outlook rain could be heavy and NE Scotland looks likely to feel the heavy rains expected, some flash floods likely, but W Yorks seems to avoid these as fast moving weather systems move up from the south.
19th Cold temps with southerly systems active. Could turn frosty and snow to high ground highly evident. Air will be crisp and light snow, sleet and wintery outbursts continue from yesterday, some sunshine with cloud gathering gloomy during the day.
20th Could be muggy with some gusty weather at times very cold outlook but sun with cloud mid day, cloud more likely to northern parts and some of W Yorks, fairer weather to south.
21st Strong winds, spasmodically gusty and speedy at times look set to strike today and looks like blizzards herald the solstice. I expect hail, sleet and snow storms to develop as unsettled weather breaks out for 21st-22nd. Freezing fogs and mists develop to western coastal regions with some tidal traffic upsets due to low visibility/choppy seas. Expect transport routes to be affected, air travel included. Some fairer outlook trying to break out by pm on 22nd, but it will develop icily on high terrain by evening and overnight. Bleak weather for these two days.
23rd Outlook gloomy at times. Colder but less wild, sunshine with cloud by mid day with some northerlies trying to battle away the S Easterlies.
24th Fairer start and sunshine looks likely to prevail with occasional gusty breezes/winds fair to mod in strength, but some mists are likely, also some winter showers coming over W Yorks after mid day. This system is travelling eastwards on a very cold day and will affect eastern regions by 25th.
25th Happily the Northerlies are active today and these always clear away the bad weather–eventually. Wintery showers could greet the day around sunrise.
Full Moon Christmas Day indicates cold, frosty weather in winter. Mists break out, with some drizzles and mizzles to lowlands from Devon to East coast of Yorkshire.
The next few days will be very settled for W Yorks with clear evening skies but lots of frost around. However, the SE regions i.e East Anglia don’t seem to fare so well and some localised flash flooding may cause problems there and other southern regions, heavy precipitation expected.
I don’t see snow for us on 25th, but Boxing Day does show frost, potentially snowfall or sleet and hail by late evening, depending on how high your location is.
New Years day looks a better bet weather wise with a fair outlook for those going to the races.
The following weather forecasts proved very challenging as the atmosphere remains unsettled due to
so much going on celestially and affecting the atmosphere surrounding planet earth. Do take time to
read my Aug 29th -Sept forecast where I draw from a 19th century successful and much respected British weather forecaster named Saxby whose book you can download FOR FREE here:-
For those wanting a look at how well forecasting weather long range using ancient earth satellite technology is, please do visit my other blog at http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com
which used to report on the outcomes of weather to give an idea of how accurate my long range forecast was.
It took a while to study the charts for this phase due to so much going on and echoing previous years of seismic outcomes, which need a lot of research and cross checking.
Firstly there are seismic factors operative which I haven’t timed or located precisely, because my main focus has to be the weather with limited time available, rather than EQ or extreme weather in other parts of the globe to ours. However, I can say I expect an EQ to west UK regions, Blackpool area, as well as/or instead of Tectonic plates in Irish sea which often tremors across to southern Brit shores.
I also firmly expect EQ to SW China, in early August, centring a few tens of kilometres east of where
one struck Yunnam region in 2013, this may arrive later, around 10th, when a lot of disturbance rocks
things up. Taiwan also looks vulnerable too, as well as NE of New Zealand in the southern hemisphere,
However, back to the weather and this phase is a very unsettled one with so much going on up in the
heavens, so don’t expect a smooth ride weather wise, I certainly won’t be booking days away.
Some very bad weather is tempered by some good weather trying to control it, and as they battle with
each other we will end up with some good some bad…. From the outset a slow moving system is
moving in with some gloomy outlook at times, but don’t worry it wont be allowed to rain on your parade
for long…..but we can expect some thunder, lightening and hail and sporadic hail outbursts to keep
your investment in your umberella worth the buying of it…
The warmth will be more due to cloud keeping temps from being too cool mostly fair to north unless
31st and 1st Very unsettled; isolated hail and sporadic localised showers active during the day, cool and some clear skies by early to late evening, but some humidity and cloud around, with mists to some valleys.
2nd Seismic outbursts likely today. Northerlies active trying to clear away the bad weather vibes,
occasionally very gusty as day gets older, some rainy outburst potential early morning before
breakfast. More cloud, rain and mists likely to NW of our region, but it wont stay around all day.
3rd Some isolated showers localised, so not widespread or long lasting. Very unsettled again some
occasional sun spells but not reliable for the great outdoors during the day, the evenings will generally
4th An improvement today on former days for our region with some calmer conditions along with more
sun and settled weather.
5th Showers around sunrise more cloud around with more showery outcomes likely to NW than we get
6th Some cloud here and more windy than yesterday, but occasional sun outbursts, cloudier to the
north however, and fairer to southern regions with temps rising on previous days, but this could result in some thundery outbursts during daytime for some localities.
This phase sees mists and mizzles to the west regions of Britain for 7th-8th. The weather continues to remain unsettled until 10th when static is high and headlines could be about the EQ I mentioned earlier. Days after 10th is when weather calms down a bit and slowly takes bad outburst to the east of us. Some thundery spells likely for first few days but some areas will not get the rain that threatens to accompany them in sudden showery bursts for some localities in our region.
We don’t revisit the highs of July just yet, but this will change later in the month ……………temps will try
to rise but be thwarted by cool northerlies at times and some sudden showery stuff bringing in some
cooling, though precipitation will not be heavy. Temps look set to be cooler than July’s highs, but with rising trends over first half of the phase.
7th Some northerlies around keeping things cool, mists/mizzles to West Brit, mists could also lie in valleys Addingham, Ilkley etc. Some showery outbursts likely around 6-9am moving around different localities.
Cloud competes with sun spells during the day.
8th-9th Shows some annoying showery intermittent spells from mid-day 8th-mid-day 9th keeping
things cool and some thundery outbursts could also threaten to spoil play, some localities wont get the
rain just the thunder. Restless weather continues but by 9th we could see more sun between clouds
instead of behind them with warmth from the sun wrestling with cool spells.
10th Remains variable breezy/windy/gusty NW around, especially on high land, these will blow gloomy
clouds away so that later in the day we will see a more settled outcome arriving with cool drier air
conditions remaining over next few days with more sun around but on 11th rainy/showery outbursts
expected around 6-8pm. 12th should be a normal summer day but still some breeziness around. 13th
could revisit thundery or static outbursts on high ground to the NW regions, trickling over to W Yorks
and yonder (overnight into 14th) and sudden mini squalls could spoil sea going activities also, usually
this trend also sees some blue skies as well so I don’t expect much cloud to linger but sudden cool
conditions can catch you off guard if outdoors.
There are drought indicators from now on but also some indications of precipitation which I don’t expect to be heavy or prolonged, or even useful for filling up lakes, reservoirs or rivers, which do look sadly quite depleted nowadays, probably due to high abstraction levels, which does leave a worrying trend for landscapes dependent upon higher levels.
There seems to be a low blocking an Azores high sadly, so I don’t expect glorious high temps, unless
you are holidaying in the Azores which looks quite sultry. The low runs across NW Scotland also
reaching Cork regions of Ireland bringing some showery stuff into play as well as intermittent drizzly bits
with a few expected reports of hail as well.
Some t/storms also expected during this phase, —–yet again…this is the year for t/storms folks, enjoy
the weather drama! I will watch for headlines around buildings being damaged due to lightening strikes
in our region, and to high pylons or electricity systems W Yorks and Yonder…hopefully I’m
wrong……Happily I don’t expect a lot of heavy precip. to arrive with it, and most will arrive overnight or
late evening, but from the outset it does look like gusty sometimes strong windy conditions flail around
from the NW for a few more days, annoyingly, as it will keep off any benefit of higher temps from
sunshine outbreaks. This phase reminds us of 16th July phase when rain and overnight t/storms didn’t
stop play but did keep you on your toes, or under your cagoule for half an hour or so, if outdoors walking
14th Should be a good day outdoors overall, but some hail potential intermittent and short lived, but
being blown around by some blustery weather, in between it will but mostly sunny and fair weather,
apart from those cool windy bits that occasionally gust around on exposed places where they will rev
up a little to strong and speedy, so take your ear muffs if mountain climbing….
15th The winds still active with cooler temps but should be a dry outdoor day with sunshine around.
16-17th rising temps could create a bit of static that creates thundery threats, mostly overnight, some
sultry conditions around followed by quick dashing about showery stuff just after mid day, and sun
with cloud, but bright weather expected for daytime activity and once any showery stuff quickly
moves on. Cloudier to northern parts, fairer to southern ones, 17th brighter than 16th. These two days
look to be the warmest for this phase.
18th-19th some showery outbursts again, spartan and intermittent with gusty westerlies veering
around on 19th. Again the showery stuff looks to arrive after lunch, but wont be too heavy and will
leave brighter conditions once they pass over, could be quick sleet or hurting hail showers.
20th Gusty and variable N.Westerly winds expected to be lively again but bright weather around during
21st Some cloud developing today between sunny spells, the evening is clearer and brighter skies
prevail until more showery threats spoil play around 6-9 pm by 22nd the cloud could get thicker but
some warm sultry weather around due to cloud keeping the earth warm overnight.
22nd -29th August
Mist, mizzles and humidity breaking out from Cornwall up to Wigton areas Cumbria and over towards NE Scotland with highs coming over from Azores to west of that line of weather, with expectation of warmer trends moving down S Eastwards as days progress, culminating in a lovely summer day by 26th.
What else did you want to know?
22nd-29th can bring in some cloud spells with 27th-29th being mild and fair weather but again with mists expected in valleys and over watering places. Generally that’s all that’s required to cover what
should be finer weather generally for us to enjoy for this phase, any thundery outbursts on 23rd would
only serve to freshen the air and will be short lived but cracking around 6-10pm
29th August to 5th September
Last 3 phase charts proved really tricky due to so many things going on weather wise and needing detailed tracking to pull out weather for W Yorks and Yonder. However, here goes with an added advantage of lessons learned from a man called Saxby ( 19th century weather forecaster) who, pre expensively funded met office, delivered trusted, relied upon long range weather forecasts using lunar phases and a priori knowledge of the use of these by Kepler etc. Farmers would circulate these forecasts as would mariners who knew as a result when to avoid storms on days singled out by Saxby.
Saxby found that at times of New Moon perigee and either equatorial or at highest point in the sky in
the north or south hemisphere, cyclones would form to the east of Trinidad and then travel to Britain 9
days later (7th Sept in this instance 2015) creating many sea and other disturbances 3-4 days after perigee, which is on 30th in this instance. And so although the Moon on 29th August is Full, rather than Saxby’s preferred NM, I take it too to be a cyclone breeder due to being FM 29th, perigee on 30th and on equator travelling North on 31st, heralding a big storm coming over to Britain.
Interestingly the charts I use for forecasting with, mapping celestial events with terrestrial locations,
show that on 29th nearby Trinidad Pluto Squares Uranus (with a very wide orb or distance), indicating weather is being brewed in that region, as Saxby would warn at a New Moon in his developing forecasting system.
Saxby tells us that dangers to shipping would pass N W of GB at a NM, and we can see, that in the Full
Moon chart Saturn is semi square Pluto at a point to NW of Scotland, about 50 degrees North latitude,
20 deg longitude, heralding some stormy weather brewing out to sea in NW Scotland, and creating bad
weather for sailors in that region for this phase from 29th onwards. This system will travel inland bringing some turbulence with it and travel to SE Scotland and perhaps the North Eng taking 4+ days to travel over from point of brewing at sea to N Eng, after 29th. It will be interesting to track and verify this at the end of August.
Meanwhile in W Yorks and Yonder (and in the Lakes) the Full Moon usually indicates clearer skies after sunset to sunrise, which is good news for campers wanting to stay dry overnight! Here are the outcomes I expect for this phase:-
29th Warming trends but unsettled weather. Sporadic variable showers, heavy for some further west,
localised and not long lasting around 4-6pm, cool breezes blowing on exposed areas and mists and
mizzles around in valleys and near watery places such as bogs and wetlands on fells and moors.
30th More early mists and mizzles as sun rise with some precipitous weather mid morning but should
leave a drier afternoon with some sunshine and warmth-should be a good day.
31st Unsettled again- some cloud around with some shower attempts aroun7-9, this is the day when
NW Scotland sees rough weather out to sea, , but here we will see some sunshine with warmth.
1st Mists, sun, cloud, hazes, unexpected localised hail outbursts, all in the weather mix, depending
where you are in W Yorks, the warmth will breed showery outburst for many around 4-6pm. By 9pm
mists will be forming to valleys and watery places. Some blustery south easterlies today and tomorrow.
2nd Rain clouds forming further west herald intermittent but refreshing quick showery outbursts in the morning, sun but with cloud around mostly during the day and evening, higher rainfall expected further west…lakes area….
3rd Some gusty breezes blowing clouds away so sun can break through and temps should be better
today with more sunshine to enjoy.
4th secondary sea disturbances warned by Saxby for today, so watch sea forecast, squally sea going,
and in some valleys. Weather could develop as sticky, static and clammy with N Westerlies strong at
times on high ground—Lakes and Pennines and moors and fells which foil temps rising as high as we
would like, but sunshine will be out there between some cloud hanging around, and showery outburst
7-9 am likely, but clearing as day progresses to blue overnight skies.
5th Generally sunny with temps warming but I’m not ruling out a quick shower between 3-5 pm, some
gusty breezes and winds around keeping things cool.
6th A clear start with sunshine and warmer trends. Rainfall expected to travel east today and be heavy
to the east of W Yorks than any that might threaten these parts. Read 6th for next phase to get a
A quick tour of the highlights for this phase. Sunshine won’t be absent; prolonged sunnydays not on offer, cloud will quickly form then move on to be rapidly replaced with other cloud that on occasions will block out the brightness of the sun. The trend is for static conditions mostly.
Thunderstorms are likely to break out again, and they will be cracking and a wonderful spectacle. Days
singled out are 8th overnight, when strong gusty winds whip around (keep your tent pegs well
hammered, and don’t forget the gyre ropes and moor your boat safely) and t/storm again 12th at late
pm to evening time but again overnight so migrating t/storms around Britain likely to provide
The northern lights will provide more spectacles that are fascinating to watch once skies clear up.
We can expect much wind around sometimes quite strong and keeping things cool, causing those sea
problems due to the cyclone activity mentioned earlier, these should subside greatly by 10th.
Rain will be heavier to southern England/E Anglia as with earlier rain that delivered one months precip
in one day on Friday 24th July. 11th looks likely candidate for rainy weather to travel up England and
12th looks cool but clearer skies and sunshine but not a lot of warmth, unless you stay sheltered, 6th
gives the best of the warmth which afterwards begins to wane.
The 9th-12th are better weatherwise, but13th seems the most likely candidate for a better sunny day
and good outdoor weather…..but read on….
During this phase we move towards the equinox on 23rd September, with 13th being a solar eclipse, but a few emerging factors celestially are revving things up across the globe and Pakistan and surrounding countries look to be on the receiving end of the worst they can bring this time of year.
We look gloomy this end of the globe here is a quick un-detailed tour which isn’t very optimistic it looks
likely fogs and mists and sea frets are further over to the East, but some fogs around major routes in our
area, to upset travel at this stage generally. Temps are on the cool side too.
13th is cloudy gloomy with easterlies bring in some gloom with a fast moving rainy mass far west
coming our way falling from before sunrise on 14th and I’m not sure it wont stay around, but things will
remain unsettled until 15th when easterlies veer westwards clearing the gloominess and leaving a way
towards drier conditions with blue skies and woolly clouds.
16th rain over to the west is causing problems to travel there we get sunshine and cloud with the rain
arriving again in the evening around 4 pm for a couple of hours.
17th cloudy start with mists likely clearing at sunrise humidity prevails but some brightness and sunny
spells from after sunrise could stay around during the day.
18th Highly unsettled and this is the day Pakistan and regions will encounter the worst of the flooding
monsoon levels. Here it will vacillate between sun and cloud but don’t expect a great outdoor
19th I expect rain to fall from 1am onwards leaving it wet and muggy for the morning dash, with
perhaps fogs and mists to contend with.
20th looks clearer and more settled. Warmer in Aus, than here, and it’s their Spring breaking out! Today
should bring a better day but not anything to write home about.
21st Some showers around, intermittent but very obvious around 1-3pm when it will be gloomy…oh
dear, return for the Autumn outlook later