WINTER 2017 WEATHER BLOG
With not enough time to deliver a forecast for winter 2017 I decided instead to blog my old piece of research into references found in old texts about climate change, that old debate about whether the world is square round, doomed or saved….or just endlessly fascinating.
I am blogging this tp give fodder to the debate on climate change and global warming, with no bias or preference, just a tour of the debate over the centuries but in brief.
http://www.ebooksread.com/authors-eng/charles-lyell/the-students-elements-of-geology-hci/page-23-the-students-elements-of-geology-hci.shtml shows evidence of climate change through plants.
http://www.icecap.us/
http://www.sacred-texts.com/earth/pf/pf12.htm
Paradise Found, by William F. Warren, [1885], at sacred-texts.com
Some interesting findings to suggest that rather than being scaremongered into believing carbon emissions and burning fossils will destroy the planet ( though for sure some of the e methods of exploiting them do cause tremendous pollution and irreversible desecration of the environment), should we be delighting in the fact that climate change could take us back to our very origins. Here’s a tour of some ancient texts reportage of climate change down the ages:-
CHAPTER IV.
THE TESTIMONY OF PREHISTORIC CLIMATOLOGY.
Ver Iliad erat, ver magnus agebat Orbis.—Vergil.
One of the most startling and important of the scientific discoveries of the last twenty years has been that of the relics of a luxuriant Miocene flora in various parts of the Arctic regions. It is a discovery which was totally unexpected, and is even now considered by many men of science to be completely unintelligible, but it is so thoroughly established, and it has such an important bearing on the subjects we are discussing in the present volume, that it is necessary to lay a tolerably complete outline of the facts before our readers.—A. R. Wallace 1880).
It is now an established conclusion that the great aggressive faunas and floras of the continents have originated in the North, some of them within the Arctic Circle.—Principal Dawson (1883).
All the evidence at our command points to the Northern hemisphere as the birth-place of the class, Mammalia, and probably of all the orders.—Alfred Russel Wallace.
Another well-known naturalist says: “It should also be observed that in the beginning of things the continents were built up from North to South,—such has been, at least, the history of the North and South American and the Europeo-Asiatic and the African continents; and thus it would appear that north of the equator, at least, animals slowly migrated southward, keeping pace as it were with the growth and southward extension of the grand land-masses which appeared above the sea in the Paleozoic ages. Hence, scanty as is the Arctic and Temperate region of the earth at the present time, in former ages these regions were as prolific in life as the tropics now are, the latter regions, now so vast, having through all the Tertiary and Quaternary ages been undisturbed by great geological revolutions, and meanwhile been colonized by emigrants driven down by the incoming cold of the glacial period.” …..
……Professor Friedrich Müller, of Vienna, and Dr. Moritz Wagner, both of whom place the probable cradle of the race in some high latitude in Europe or Asia, lay the utmost stress upon the mighty climatic revolution which came in with the glacial age, ascribing to it the most stupendous and transforming influences that have ever affected mankind. 1 In our view the deterioration of natural environment reduced the
vigor and longevity of the race; in theirs it changed one of the tribes of the animal world into men! Which of these views is the more rational may safely be left to the reader’s judgment. Few will be disposed to accept the doctrine that man is simply a judiciously-iced pithecoid.
….We must now be prepared to admit that God can plant an Eden even in Spitzbergen; that the present state of the world is by no means the best possible in relation to climate and vegetation; that there have been and might be again conditions which could convert the ice-clad Arctic regions into blooming Paradises.—Principal J. W. Dawson.
Mr. Scribner’s answer to the question, “Where did Life begin?” human as well as floral and faunal life should be included. After examining these fresh lines of evidence it is believed that the reader will find more impressive than ever the words with which our author concludes his charming tractate:—
“Thus the Arctic zone, which was earliest in cooling down to the first and highest heat degree in the great life-gamut, was also first to become fertile, first to bear life, and first to send forth her progeny over the earth. So, too, in obedience to the universal order of things, she was first to reach maturity, first to pass all the subdivisions of life-bearing climate and finally the lowest heat degree in the great life-range, and so the first to reach sterility, old age, degeneration, and death. And now, cold and lifeless, wrapped in her snowy winding sheet, the once fair mother of us all rests in the frozen embrace of an ice-bound and everlasting sepulchre.”
http://www.sacred-texts.com/atl/rag/index.htm
RAGNAROK:THE AGE OF FIRE AND GRAVEL.BYIGNATIUS DONNELLY,
[1883]
Ragnarok, The Age of Fire and Gravel, proposes that a comet impacted the Earth several tens of thousands of years ago; the impact produced the ‘Drift’ layers of gravel which have been attributed to the Ice ages; this event destroyed a civilization which had high technology, a civilization which vanished completely except for some myths; the disaster was accompanied by catastrophic fire followed by years-long cloud cover and extreme cold. Humanity survived only by hiding in deep caves; when they re-emerged they had to restart civilization from scratch. Donnelly provides extensive geological, archeological, astronomical and mythological evidence for this theory. The book is not academic and often sensationalistic, but his populist style does not seem to detract from the argument.
Today, mass extinction from cometary impact is considered mainstream science, supported by a huge body of physical evidence.
More recently the book When the Earth Nearly Died When the Earth Nearly Died by D.S. Allan and J.B. Delair [1995] (reissued as Cataclysm: Compelling Evidence of a Cosmic Catastrophe in 9500 B.C.), brought together a mass of evidence that a catastrophic impact of extrasolar material occurred in 9,500 B.C.
You can also read how it may be that the Zoroastrians may have left us evidence that they were preparing for a nuclear disaster and how it may be that climate change is a result of extra terrestrial impacts of earth with comets and other objects…..
http://www.sacred-texts.com/afr/we/index.htm Wonderful Ethiopians
of the Ancient Cushite Empire by Drusilla Dunjee Houston
[1926, no renewal] read how the desert regions of Africa have been subjected to horrors of horrors….CLIMATE CHANGE!
CHAPTER III. ANCIENT ETHIOPIA, THE LAND.
The Nubo-Egyptian desert was once abundantly watered and a well timbered region. With the exclusion of the narrow Nile valley, all of this is generally a barren waste today. Geology reveals that in the primitive ages, this country had a moist climate like the Congo basin; but these conditions prevailed in remote geological times, probably before the creation of the delta. The changes that turned the Sahara into a burning waste in time made Upper Egypt dry and torrid. Keane describes its climate as often fatal to all but full blooded natives. Under those brazen skies the children of even Euro-African half castes seldom survive after the tenth or twelfth year. Passing southward, we find that ancient edifices occur throughout the whole extent of Ethiopia. In the olden days, the climate there was favorable to the nurturing and development of a high type of civilization and produced an Ethiopian so superior to the later types, that they were called by the ancients, “the handsomest men of the primeval world.”
http://www.sacred-texts.com/nam/ca/lly/lly64.htm
The Lore and the Lure of the Yosemite The Indians Their Customs, Legends and Beliefs, and the Story of Yosemite Herbert Earl Wilson
[1922]
Not only Africa but the Yosemite Valley as well…..was affected by climate change and not a motor car or airplane in sight….
‘It is known that since the beginning of time the surface of the earth has undergone various changes brought about by its cooling and shrinking and by internal eruptions and disturbances.
During one of these disturbances the region between the Pacific Ocean and the Rocky Mountains was affected. Here the surface of the earth was broken into great blocks and one of these, four hundred miles long and eighty miles wide, was pushed up at its eastern edge, separating it from the depressed region to the east, leaving a steep scarp, and pulled down at its western edge giving it a gentle slope to the sea.
The streams which flowed in diverse directions before the uplift of this block now were given a definite course flowing down the slope to the west and forming broad shallow valleys. One of these streams was the Merced River which now flows through the Yosemite Valley.
After a great period of time there occurred a second upward thrust which raised the eastern edge of the block to an elevation of several thousand feet making a distinct mountain range, later known as the Sierra Nevada. This second uplift gave to the western side a greater incline so that the Merced River was given enough velocity to enable it, through the millions of years elapsing before a third series of uplifts, to cut a narrower valley within its old broad valley.
The tributary streams which flowed parallel to the range and at right angles to the Merced River were not benefited by the tilting of the block, hence the deeper the main river cut the higher the side streams were left above it. With the broadening and leveling of its bed the Merced lost its cutting power and flowed lazily over the valley floor.
http://www.sacred-texts.com/cla/gibbon/01/daf01026.htm
Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Vol. 1 by Edward Gibbon 1776
We can learn ever so much about the impact of climate change in this book……
Find out how Germany has been affected by CLIMATE CHANGE…….which meant that vines brought to the dinner table were still frozen posing a problem for hungry diners…and find out if the reindeer ever lived in Germany…
‘The modern philosophers of Sweden seem agreed that the waters of the Baltic gradually sink in a regular proportion, which they have ventured to estimate at half an inch every year. Twenty centuries ago the flat country of Scandinavia must have been covered by the sea; while the high lands rose above the waters, as so many islands of various forms and dimensions. Such, indeed, is the notion given us by Mela, Pliny, and Tacitus, of the vast countries round the Baltic. See in the Bibliotheque Raisonnee, tom. xl. and xlv. a large abstract of Dalin’s History of Sweden, composed in the Swedish language.
Diodorus Siculus, l. v. p. 340, edit. Wessel. Herodian, l. vi. p. 221. Jornandes, c. 55. On the banks of the Danube, the wine, when brought to table, was frequently frozen into great lumps, frusta vini. Ovid. Epist. ex Ponto, l. iv. 7, 9, 10. Virgil. Georgic. l. iii. 355. The fact is confirmed by a soldier and a philosopher, who had experienced the intense cold of Thrace. See Xenophon, Anabasis, l. vii. p. 560, edit. Hutchinson. Note: The Danube is constantly frozen over. At Pesth the bridge is usually taken up, and the traffic and communication between the two banks carried on over the ice. The Rhine is likewise in many parts passable at least two years out of five. Winter campaigns are so unusual, in modern warfare, that I recollect but one instance of an army crossing either river on the ice. In the thirty years’ war, (1635,) Jan van Werth, an Imperialist partisan, crossed the Rhine from Heidelberg on the ice with 5000 men, and surprised Spiers. Pichegru’s memorable campaign, (1794-5,) when the freezing of the Meuse and Waal opened Holland to his conquests, and his cavalry and artillery attacked the ships frozen in, on the Zuyder Zee, was in a winter of unprecedented severity. – M. 1845.
Note: The passage of Caesar, “parvis renonum tegumentis utuntur,” is obscure, observes Luden, (Geschichte des Teutschen Volkes,) and insufficient to prove the reindeer to have existed in Germany. It is supported however, by a fragment of Sallust. Germani intectum rhenonibus corpus tegunt. – M. It has been suggested to me that Caesar (as old Gesner supposed) meant the reindeer in the following description. Est bos cervi figura cujus a media fronte inter aures unum cornu existit, excelsius magisque directum (divaricatum, qu ?) his quae nobis nota sunt cornibus. At ejus summo, sicut palmae, rami quam late diffunduntur. Bell. vi. – M. 1845.
http://www.sacred-texts.com/chr/ecf/008/0080496.htm Ante-Nicene Fathers, Vol. VIII The Twelve Patriarchs, Excerpts and Epistles, The Clementina, Apocrypha, Decretals, Memoirs of Edessa and Syriac Documents, Remains of the First Ages
A good source of ancient documentation quite long but this link takes you to the bit about climate…http://www.sacred-texts.com/chr/ecf/008/0080496.htm
Are the Romans responsible for climate change…..read on….
Chapter XXVII.—Doctrine of “Climates” Untenable.
“Moreover, we ought to remember the things which have been mentioned, that in the one country of India there are both persons who feed on human flesh, and persons who abstain even from the flesh of sheep, and birds, and all living creatures; and that the Magusæi marry their mothers and daughters not only in Persia, but that in every nation where they dwell they keep up their incestuous customs. 847 Then, besides, we have mentioned also innumerable nations, which are wholly ignorant of the studies of literature, and also some wise men have changed the laws themselves in several places; and some laws have been voluntarily abandoned, on account of the impossibility of observing them, or on account of their baseness. Assuredly we can easily ascertain how many rulers have changed the laws and customs of nations which they have conquered, and subjected them to their own laws. This is manifestly done by the Romans, who have brought under the Roman law and the civil decrees almost the whole world, and all nations who formerly lived under various laws and customs of their own. It follows, therefore, that the stars of the nations which have been conquered by the Romans have lost their climates and their portions.
Origin of Species, by Charles Darwin, 6th ed. [1872], at sacred-texts.com
Let’s see what Darwin had to say on the issue of climate…but surely he isn’t arguing we can adapt to climate change ….is he???….
‘The capacity of enduring the most different climates by man himself and by his domestic animals, and the fact of the extinct elephant and rhinoceros having formerly endured a glacial climate, whereas the living species are now all tropical or sub-tropical in their habits, ought not to be looked at as anomalies, but as examples of a very common flexibility of constitution, brought, under peculiar circumstances, into action.
How much of the acclimatisation of species to any peculiar climate is due to mere habit, and how much to the natural selection of varieties having different innate constitutions, and how much to both means combined, is an obscure question. That habit or custom has some influence, I must believe, both from analogy and from the incessant advice given in agricultural works, even in the ancient encyclopaedias of China, to be very cautious in transporting animals from one district to another. And as it is not likely that man should have succeeded in selecting so many breeds and sub-breeds with constitutions specially fitted for their own districts, the result must, I think, be due to habit. On the other hand, natural selection would inevitably tend to preserve those individuals which were born with constitutions best adapted to any country which they inhabited.
http://www.sacred-texts.com/chr/tbr/tbr094.htm
Now lets visit and old treatise named the Bible and see what Revelations we can find there …..millennia old I might add, that inform us of how old climate change actually is….THE NEW EARTH.
Rev. 21:1.
“Thus saith the Lord that created the heavens; He is God; that formed the earth and made it; He established it, He created it not a waste, He formed it to be inhabited.” See also Jer. 4:23-26. What caused the earth to become a waste after its original creation is not expressly stated. Some awful catastrophe must have befallen it. It is clear from the account of the Fall of Adam and Eve that sin existed before man was created. The inference is from Ezek. 28:12-19, and Isa. 14:12-14, that when the earth was originally created that Satan was placed in charge of it, and that he and his angels rebelled and led astray the inhabitants of the Original Earth, and that the Pre-Adamite race are now the demons who as they are permitted liberty seek to re-embody themselves in human beings that they may again dwell on the earth. It is clear that the Original Earth was inhabited, or God would not have blessed Adam and Eve and said–“Be fruitful and multiply and REPLENISH the Earth.” Gen. 1:28. It does not follow however that those inhabitants were human beings like ourselves. No human remains have been found ante-dating the creation of man.
http://www.sacred-texts.com/chr/tbr/index.htm The Book of Revelationby Clarence Larkin [1919]
‘Is there a conflict between the biblical and scientific theories of the origin of our planet and climate change??
There can be no question but what the Earth in its original formation required millions of years. There is ample time in the statement of Gen. 1:1 that–“In the BEGINNING God ‘created’ the heaven and the earth,” for all the “Geologic Ages” that science declares were necessary for the creation of the Earth. There is no conflict between the Bible and Science as to the time occupied in the formation of the Earth.
Happily, we are told not to worry about the earth being overcome by a natural process of climate change because:-
‘NEW HEAVEN AND A NEW EARTH.” 2. Pet. 3:13. These words of Peter reveal the fact that this Earth is to pass through 3 stages. First the Original Earth that “perished” by WATER. Second the Earth that is now, that is to be renovated or cleansed by FIRE. And the New Earth that is to exist forever. See the Chart “The Three Stages of the Earth.”
Goodness me…. a new earth that will last forever……..amazing…
“And I saw a new Heaven and a NEW EARTH: for the first heaven and the first earth were passed away; and there was no more sea.”
http://www.sacred-texts.com/piri/index.htm
Why haven’t we got a map to show how the UK was once joined to mainland Europe and other geo changes that would give us a better idea about how climate change is a natural process, pre the motor car, air travel and energy giants trying to charge us more for setting up sustainable fuel systems that none of us will be able to afford?
Such a map does exist though. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piri_Reis_map
The Piri Reis map is a patchwork which has gaps (most notably the Drake Passage between South America and Antarctica) which can be explained as non-overlapping areas between the source maps. Maps of the Ancient Sea Kings and Hapgood’s other book The Earth’s Shifting Crust, in which he advanced a theory of polar shifts, are controversial, and earned him the scorn of official academia.
http://www.sacred-texts.com/earth/jei/jei14.htm
A Journey to the Earth’s Interior
by Marshall B. Gardner
[1920]
Finally, in 1999 the http://www.dailycal.org/ featured an article by Westyn Branch-Elliman entitled Longterm Climate Change Due to Astronomical Cycles.
‘’Climate cycles on Earth are directly related to astronomical cycles in the solar system, UC Berkeley researchers have found.
The team of scientists collected evidence of ice ages stored at the bottom of the oceans and found that there is a distinct pattern of cycles – an ice age that lasts approximately 90,000 years is followed by a warm period that lasts approximately 10,000 years.
“Astronomy is responsible for almost all climate changes,” said project leader Richard Muller, a UC Berkeley professor of physics and a researcher at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratories. ‘’
In addition, the researchers examined the astronomical cycles caused by variations in the tilt of Earth’s orbit. They found that the tilt cycles match the cycles of the ice ages.
“When we look at ancient records of planets, these astronomical cycles appear in the climate record,” Muller said.
Due to gravitational forces caused by other planets, the tilt of Earth’s orbit changes depending on the position of these other objects.
“The orbit of the earth around the sun is constantly changing due to the gravitational effects of other planets,” Muller said.
The law of gravitation is dependent on the distance between two objects. When objects are closer together, they exert stronger forces on each other than when they are farther apart.
Other planets orbit the sun, so their proximity to Earth varies over time. Due to gravitational forces exerted by other planets, the tilt of Earth’s orbit changes in a cyclic pattern.
“By using the laws of physics, we can figure out what kind of cycles (other planets) induce on the orbit of the earth,” Muller said.
The two planets that most strongly affect the tilt of Earth’s orbit are Jupiter and Venus, Muller said. Jupiter is large an massive, so the planet exerts strong gravitational forces on Earth. Venus is relatively close to Earth, so it also has a large effect on the tilt of the orbit.
“Jupiter, which is the biggest planet (in our solar system), is the most important,” Muller said. “The other planet that is very important is Venus. Even though it is much smaller, it comes much closer to the earth.”
…………………………………………………. All of civilization has taken place during this short and relatively unusual warm period, which won’t last very long,” Muller said. “We have been through 10,000 (years of this warm period), so some time in the next 10,000 years, another ice age will arrive.”
FOOTNOTE Astro-meteorologists have been watching planetary cycles down millennia using satellite technology to forecast weather and still do so proficiently and accurately today.
Summer 2015 Part Two, W Yorks and Yonder
Summer Weather Part Two 2015 AUGUST 2015
The following weather forecasts proved very challenging as the atmosphere remains unsettled due to
so much going on celestially and affecting the atmosphere surrounding planet earth. Do take time to
read my Aug 29th -Sept forecast where I draw from a 19th century successful and much respected British weather forecaster named Saxby whose book you can download FOR FREE here:-
https://books.google.com/books?id=oQoFAAAAQAAJ
For those wanting a look at how well forecasting weather long range using ancient earth satellite technology is, please do visit my other blog at http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com
which used to report on the outcomes of weather to give an idea of how accurate my long range forecast was.
It took a while to study the charts for this phase due to so much going on and echoing previous years of seismic outcomes, which need a lot of research and cross checking.
Firstly there are seismic factors operative which I haven’t timed or located precisely, because my main focus has to be the weather with limited time available, rather than EQ or extreme weather in other parts of the globe to ours. However, I can say I expect an EQ to west UK regions, Blackpool area, as well as/or instead of Tectonic plates in Irish sea which often tremors across to southern Brit shores.
I also firmly expect EQ to SW China, in early August, centring a few tens of kilometres east of where
one struck Yunnam region in 2013, this may arrive later, around 10th, when a lot of disturbance rocks
things up. Taiwan also looks vulnerable too, as well as NE of New Zealand in the southern hemisphere,
However, back to the weather and this phase is a very unsettled one with so much going on up in the
heavens, so don’t expect a smooth ride weather wise, I certainly won’t be booking days away.
Some very bad weather is tempered by some good weather trying to control it, and as they battle with
each other we will end up with some good some bad…. From the outset a slow moving system is
moving in with some gloomy outlook at times, but don’t worry it wont be allowed to rain on your parade
for long…..but we can expect some thunder, lightening and hail and sporadic hail outbursts to keep
your investment in your umberella worth the buying of it…
The warmth will be more due to cloud keeping temps from being too cool mostly fair to north unless
otherwise specified.
Here is a quick tour 31st July-7th Aug:-
31st and 1st Very unsettled; isolated hail and sporadic localised showers active during the day, cool and some clear skies by early to late evening, but some humidity and cloud around, with mists to some valleys.
2nd Seismic outbursts likely today. Northerlies active trying to clear away the bad weather vibes,
occasionally very gusty as day gets older, some rainy outburst potential early morning before
breakfast. More cloud, rain and mists likely to NW of our region, but it wont stay around all day.
3rd Some isolated showers localised, so not widespread or long lasting. Very unsettled again some
occasional sun spells but not reliable for the great outdoors during the day, the evenings will generally
be better.
4th An improvement today on former days for our region with some calmer conditions along with more
sun and settled weather.
5th Showers around sunrise more cloud around with more showery outcomes likely to NW than we get
here.
6th Some cloud here and more windy than yesterday, but occasional sun outbursts, cloudier to the
north however, and fairer to southern regions with temps rising on previous days, but this could result in some thundery outbursts during daytime for some localities.
7th-14th August
This phase sees mists and mizzles to the west regions of Britain for 7th-8th. The weather continues to remain unsettled until 10th when static is high and headlines could be about the EQ I mentioned earlier. Days after 10th is when weather calms down a bit and slowly takes bad outburst to the east of us. Some thundery spells likely for first few days but some areas will not get the rain that threatens to accompany them in sudden showery bursts for some localities in our region.
We don’t revisit the highs of July just yet, but this will change later in the month ……………temps will try
to rise but be thwarted by cool northerlies at times and some sudden showery stuff bringing in some
cooling, though precipitation will not be heavy. Temps look set to be cooler than July’s highs, but with rising trends over first half of the phase.
7th Some northerlies around keeping things cool, mists/mizzles to West Brit, mists could also lie in valleys Addingham, Ilkley etc. Some showery outbursts likely around 6-9am moving around different localities.
Cloud competes with sun spells during the day.
8th-9th Shows some annoying showery intermittent spells from mid-day 8th-mid-day 9th keeping
things cool and some thundery outbursts could also threaten to spoil play, some localities wont get the
rain just the thunder. Restless weather continues but by 9th we could see more sun between clouds
instead of behind them with warmth from the sun wrestling with cool spells.
10th Remains variable breezy/windy/gusty NW around, especially on high land, these will blow gloomy
clouds away so that later in the day we will see a more settled outcome arriving with cool drier air
conditions remaining over next few days with more sun around but on 11th rainy/showery outbursts
expected around 6-8pm. 12th should be a normal summer day but still some breeziness around. 13th
could revisit thundery or static outbursts on high ground to the NW regions, trickling over to W Yorks
and yonder (overnight into 14th) and sudden mini squalls could spoil sea going activities also, usually
this trend also sees some blue skies as well so I don’t expect much cloud to linger but sudden cool
conditions can catch you off guard if outdoors.
14th-22nd August
There are drought indicators from now on but also some indications of precipitation which I don’t expect to be heavy or prolonged, or even useful for filling up lakes, reservoirs or rivers, which do look sadly quite depleted nowadays, probably due to high abstraction levels, which does leave a worrying trend for landscapes dependent upon higher levels.
There seems to be a low blocking an Azores high sadly, so I don’t expect glorious high temps, unless
you are holidaying in the Azores which looks quite sultry. The low runs across NW Scotland also
reaching Cork regions of Ireland bringing some showery stuff into play as well as intermittent drizzly bits
with a few expected reports of hail as well.
Some t/storms also expected during this phase, —–yet again…this is the year for t/storms folks, enjoy
the weather drama! I will watch for headlines around buildings being damaged due to lightening strikes
in our region, and to high pylons or electricity systems W Yorks and Yonder…hopefully I’m
wrong……Happily I don’t expect a lot of heavy precip. to arrive with it, and most will arrive overnight or
late evening, but from the outset it does look like gusty sometimes strong windy conditions flail around
from the NW for a few more days, annoyingly, as it will keep off any benefit of higher temps from
sunshine outbreaks. This phase reminds us of 16th July phase when rain and overnight t/storms didn’t
stop play but did keep you on your toes, or under your cagoule for half an hour or so, if outdoors walking
the fells.
14th Should be a good day outdoors overall, but some hail potential intermittent and short lived, but
being blown around by some blustery weather, in between it will but mostly sunny and fair weather,
apart from those cool windy bits that occasionally gust around on exposed places where they will rev
up a little to strong and speedy, so take your ear muffs if mountain climbing….
15th The winds still active with cooler temps but should be a dry outdoor day with sunshine around.
16-17th rising temps could create a bit of static that creates thundery threats, mostly overnight, some
sultry conditions around followed by quick dashing about showery stuff just after mid day, and sun
with cloud, but bright weather expected for daytime activity and once any showery stuff quickly
moves on. Cloudier to northern parts, fairer to southern ones, 17th brighter than 16th. These two days
look to be the warmest for this phase.
18th-19th some showery outbursts again, spartan and intermittent with gusty westerlies veering
around on 19th. Again the showery stuff looks to arrive after lunch, but wont be too heavy and will
leave brighter conditions once they pass over, could be quick sleet or hurting hail showers.
20th Gusty and variable N.Westerly winds expected to be lively again but bright weather around during
daytime.
21st Some cloud developing today between sunny spells, the evening is clearer and brighter skies
prevail until more showery threats spoil play around 6-9 pm by 22nd the cloud could get thicker but
some warm sultry weather around due to cloud keeping the earth warm overnight.
22nd -29th August
Mist, mizzles and humidity breaking out from Cornwall up to Wigton areas Cumbria and over towards NE Scotland with highs coming over from Azores to west of that line of weather, with expectation of warmer trends moving down S Eastwards as days progress, culminating in a lovely summer day by 26th.
What else did you want to know?
22nd-29th can bring in some cloud spells with 27th-29th being mild and fair weather but again with mists expected in valleys and over watering places. Generally that’s all that’s required to cover what
should be finer weather generally for us to enjoy for this phase, any thundery outbursts on 23rd would
only serve to freshen the air and will be short lived but cracking around 6-10pm
29th August to 5th September
Last 3 phase charts proved really tricky due to so many things going on weather wise and needing detailed tracking to pull out weather for W Yorks and Yonder. However, here goes with an added advantage of lessons learned from a man called Saxby ( 19th century weather forecaster) who, pre expensively funded met office, delivered trusted, relied upon long range weather forecasts using lunar phases and a priori knowledge of the use of these by Kepler etc. Farmers would circulate these forecasts as would mariners who knew as a result when to avoid storms on days singled out by Saxby.
Saxby found that at times of New Moon perigee and either equatorial or at highest point in the sky in
the north or south hemisphere, cyclones would form to the east of Trinidad and then travel to Britain 9
days later (7th Sept in this instance 2015) creating many sea and other disturbances 3-4 days after perigee, which is on 30th in this instance. And so although the Moon on 29th August is Full, rather than Saxby’s preferred NM, I take it too to be a cyclone breeder due to being FM 29th, perigee on 30th and on equator travelling North on 31st, heralding a big storm coming over to Britain.
Interestingly the charts I use for forecasting with, mapping celestial events with terrestrial locations,
show that on 29th nearby Trinidad Pluto Squares Uranus (with a very wide orb or distance), indicating weather is being brewed in that region, as Saxby would warn at a New Moon in his developing forecasting system.
Saxby tells us that dangers to shipping would pass N W of GB at a NM, and we can see, that in the Full
Moon chart Saturn is semi square Pluto at a point to NW of Scotland, about 50 degrees North latitude,
20 deg longitude, heralding some stormy weather brewing out to sea in NW Scotland, and creating bad
weather for sailors in that region for this phase from 29th onwards. This system will travel inland bringing some turbulence with it and travel to SE Scotland and perhaps the North Eng taking 4+ days to travel over from point of brewing at sea to N Eng, after 29th. It will be interesting to track and verify this at the end of August.
Meanwhile in W Yorks and Yonder (and in the Lakes) the Full Moon usually indicates clearer skies after sunset to sunrise, which is good news for campers wanting to stay dry overnight! Here are the outcomes I expect for this phase:-
29th Warming trends but unsettled weather. Sporadic variable showers, heavy for some further west,
localised and not long lasting around 4-6pm, cool breezes blowing on exposed areas and mists and
mizzles around in valleys and near watery places such as bogs and wetlands on fells and moors.
30th More early mists and mizzles as sun rise with some precipitous weather mid morning but should
leave a drier afternoon with some sunshine and warmth-should be a good day.
31st Unsettled again- some cloud around with some shower attempts aroun7-9, this is the day when
NW Scotland sees rough weather out to sea, , but here we will see some sunshine with warmth.
1st Mists, sun, cloud, hazes, unexpected localised hail outbursts, all in the weather mix, depending
where you are in W Yorks, the warmth will breed showery outburst for many around 4-6pm. By 9pm
mists will be forming to valleys and watery places. Some blustery south easterlies today and tomorrow.
2nd Rain clouds forming further west herald intermittent but refreshing quick showery outbursts in the morning, sun but with cloud around mostly during the day and evening, higher rainfall expected further west…lakes area….
3rd Some gusty breezes blowing clouds away so sun can break through and temps should be better
today with more sunshine to enjoy.
4th secondary sea disturbances warned by Saxby for today, so watch sea forecast, squally sea going,
and in some valleys. Weather could develop as sticky, static and clammy with N Westerlies strong at
times on high ground—Lakes and Pennines and moors and fells which foil temps rising as high as we
would like, but sunshine will be out there between some cloud hanging around, and showery outburst
7-9 am likely, but clearing as day progresses to blue overnight skies.
5th Generally sunny with temps warming but I’m not ruling out a quick shower between 3-5 pm, some
gusty breezes and winds around keeping things cool.
6th A clear start with sunshine and warmer trends. Rainfall expected to travel east today and be heavy
to the east of W Yorks than any that might threaten these parts. Read 6th for next phase to get a
clearer picture……………
A quick tour of the highlights for this phase. Sunshine won’t be absent; prolonged sunnydays not on offer, cloud will quickly form then move on to be rapidly replaced with other cloud that on occasions will block out the brightness of the sun. The trend is for static conditions mostly.
Thunderstorms are likely to break out again, and they will be cracking and a wonderful spectacle. Days
singled out are 8th overnight, when strong gusty winds whip around (keep your tent pegs well
hammered, and don’t forget the gyre ropes and moor your boat safely) and t/storm again 12th at late
pm to evening time but again overnight so migrating t/storms around Britain likely to provide
excitement.
The northern lights will provide more spectacles that are fascinating to watch once skies clear up.
We can expect much wind around sometimes quite strong and keeping things cool, causing those sea
problems due to the cyclone activity mentioned earlier, these should subside greatly by 10th.
Rain will be heavier to southern England/E Anglia as with earlier rain that delivered one months precip
in one day on Friday 24th July. 11th looks likely candidate for rainy weather to travel up England and
beyond.
12th looks cool but clearer skies and sunshine but not a lot of warmth, unless you stay sheltered, 6th
gives the best of the warmth which afterwards begins to wane.
The 9th-12th are better weatherwise, but13th seems the most likely candidate for a better sunny day
and good outdoor weather…..but read on….
During this phase we move towards the equinox on 23rd September, with 13th being a solar eclipse, but a few emerging factors celestially are revving things up across the globe and Pakistan and surrounding countries look to be on the receiving end of the worst they can bring this time of year.
We look gloomy this end of the globe here is a quick un-detailed tour which isn’t very optimistic it looks
likely fogs and mists and sea frets are further over to the East, but some fogs around major routes in our
area, to upset travel at this stage generally. Temps are on the cool side too.
13th is cloudy gloomy with easterlies bring in some gloom with a fast moving rainy mass far west
coming our way falling from before sunrise on 14th and I’m not sure it wont stay around, but things will
remain unsettled until 15th when easterlies veer westwards clearing the gloominess and leaving a way
towards drier conditions with blue skies and woolly clouds.
16th rain over to the west is causing problems to travel there we get sunshine and cloud with the rain
arriving again in the evening around 4 pm for a couple of hours.
17th cloudy start with mists likely clearing at sunrise humidity prevails but some brightness and sunny
spells from after sunrise could stay around during the day.
18th Highly unsettled and this is the day Pakistan and regions will encounter the worst of the flooding
monsoon levels. Here it will vacillate between sun and cloud but don’t expect a great outdoor
experience.
19th I expect rain to fall from 1am onwards leaving it wet and muggy for the morning dash, with
perhaps fogs and mists to contend with.
20th looks clearer and more settled. Warmer in Aus, than here, and it’s their Spring breaking out! Today
should bring a better day but not anything to write home about.
21st Some showers around, intermittent but very obvious around 1-3pm when it will be gloomy…oh
dear, return for the Autumn outlook later
SUMMER 2014 WEST YORKS N YONDER
Summer 2014
I expect to see some lovely weather over summer this year, but this wont be guaranteed every week till Autumn!
We have to wait till Jupiter moves into Leo, but this will be heralded by some extreme weather headlines around the middle of July…more of this later perhaps…if I get time.
I can only deliver the first few weeks of summer 2014 long range forecast and have focussed upon the weather for the Tour de France taking place in the fabulous landscape of Yorkshire this year. Yorkshire has a landscape I have always called Gods own country, so nice to know the local BBC programmers have also started calling it that too in recent years. Cyclists are not going to be disappointed if they lose after encountering some of the most fabulous rolling hills and dales on the planet.
Read on to see what my forecast predicts weather wise, and I can also say that for Leeds, this is a fabulous time astrologically to showcase the city and surrounding areas, as well as to host the start of this much awaited and celebrated sporting event and may I also say I expect a cyclist born within our city limits to arrive as a winner. Good luck!
19th-27th June
We can expect some great outdoor weather mostly dry, lots of sunshine around but wind spells can cause a few erratic wind tunnels, paricularly on high ground and along valleys in deep rifts 24tth-27th likeliest days for these to arrive, so watch out if cycling down on a practise run from Buttertubs to Grassington.
Potential arrives for scattered and localised electrical breaks to sunshine with hail spurts also expected to some localities.
Highs continue as summer announces the salute to the height of the sun in our hemisphere, on 21st, so get out your bikes to cycle to the stone circles on Ilkley Moor or in Grassington to help celebrate a major seasonal marker. The 21st usually sees a few weather disturbances due to the sun ingressing from one environment to another but precipitations looks more likely to hit the NW Scotland regions, though could arrive to some northern parts of England as days continue.. The 20th could see a few showery outbursts around breakfast but I don’t expect these to linger too long, and could even turn out to be just some mists and clouds.
Generally sunny fair weather with highs of the season to enjoy 24th-27th but as mentioned earlier these could be accompanied by winds as well in exposed areas paricularly. 27th could see mists lingering into mid morning.
27th June -5th July
I expect highs for the season to be checked against records for this phase. 30th sees some static build along with heat from former days. There should be some blue skies and good summer weather around but after 3rd things could begin to turn a little cooler.
The chart for this ‘Tour’ phase echoes some of the conditions we dealt with in March/April this year when easterlies brought over pollution from Europe, combining with strong winds fetching sand up from the Sahara. However, it does look as if this time the sands get blown over SE England across to mainland Europe leaving cyclists with better visibility than they would have had with sand in their eyes! I don’t discount the possibility of more pollution blowing over from the east and it does look set to hit east coastal regions. hopefully not hitting the main cycle route.
5th July-12th.
This phase brings in a tendency for lowering of temps on former week, but I am sure cyclists will welcome less intense heat for their race. I expect longer lasting weather disturbances to grow as the phase continues but fortunately these look set to be at their worst around the 8th after the race has finished.
This phase shows seimicity operating, but this will affect eastern parts of the UK avoiding cycling routes, or it could manifest as pollution coming in to the east coast regions from Europe.
I have focussed mainly upon race days 5-6th.
5th potential for early morning mists due to warmth lingering, or showers from midnight to before sunrise with some noisy pockets of wind of varying speed, mostly northerly keeping things cool. Potential for varying localised showery conditions for some parts of the Yorkshire region in the morning, for mid morning in W Leeds after the race has set off from the city centre. Weather should be clearer by the afternoon to midnight generally.
6th Again midnight to before sunrise there is potential for showery outbreaks, mists and clouds, so watch out on grassy areas that could be slippy if you are camping out. Mid day brings a risk of more showery outbursts, and mists or clouds could still be lingering near watery places in valleys. The afternoon and evening should see the better conditions with sunshine around.
Temps will be variable but lowering, with varying cloud and sunshine on these two days. Once the showery intervals clear we can expect sun and cloud and some good visibility to watch the race with.
It’s the 8-9th that bring in the worst weather of the phase, but before 12th Full Moon I expect better weather to be turning up.
Hopefully I shall be able to finish the summer long range forecast and publish it soon, watch this space……..