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Archive for January 2012

Weather forecast W Yorks and Yonder 1-14th February 2012

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31st Jan – 7th Feb

Some dominating high seasonal temps with lows to Scotland and northern England, westerlies arriving to confirm the outlook. Some misty conditions and showery outlook to the west of UK and unsettled temps make it difficult to predict outcomes for this phase weather wise so far ahead. There’s a lot of contradictory signals weather wise with some icy low freezes offset by some dull, showery, mizzly conditions and a tendency for temperatures to thwart a constant that helps forecast the outcome. I do expect some good outdoor weather though on some days probably the first two days and then for the second half. The first half is dominated by some highly variable conditions that could lead into prolonged heavy winter showers overnight 1st-2nd, with some flood alerts showing for some UK regions and I’m only sorry I never get time to do all the necessary charts to readily locate and follow the weather trends throughout the UK

31st shows some localised quick icy showery outbreaks some sun during the day with late evening mists and mizzles, and cold pockets. Snow or frost not unlikely either, but the air should feel clear if not invigorating.
1st Feb some quick showers lead to a sunny day cloud forming by evening along with more mizzle or quick showery outbursts by 10pm Strong westerlies look likely to break over the west of us and could reach here, temps cool to moderate and varying. I expect some prolonged rainy outbursts as mentioned above from late tonight till tomorrow

2nd The rain could continue from last night until a final shower outburst lasting 2-3pm. Southerlies combine with easterlies echoing the forecast for the unsettled weather.

3rd  Cool to moderate variable temp conditions sunshine with cloud during the day and a quick shower potential around 4 pm with some more cloud around late evening. breeziness could arise also

4th-5th I expect today and tomorrow to be a little more settled with some sunshine and warmer temps especially with sun around to cheer everyone up, cold temps on high places and in sheltered areas. More cloud around by 8pm on 5th

6th-7th A dry day, sunshine and cloud clearing enough  to allow some blue skies, cold pockets, breezy sudden spurts of NW winds lower temps in high places with potential for snow on high ground a few flutters here not beyond the bounds of expectation. Some localised icy winter shower outbreaks by evening approx clearer outlook after 6pm. Exposed regions will have some strong pockets of wind blowing downslopes, gusty at times.
8th-14th Feb
This phase brings a long ranging change from fair to not so good from halfway through. Overall the mists and dull weather remind us of November’s mists and mugginess as we move towards Valentine’s Day! Temps will be variable damp air can be a little cloying if not oppressive particularly the by the 9th onwards with prolonged precipitation likely from late on 12th into early hours of 13th raising water levels in some rivers and we can expect a warning of disruption to travel as a result. Mists and fog, mizzly muggy outlook for second half can also interfere with air travel as well.
Again I’m looking at some conflicting evidence for weather, some of which dictates snow and frost, others that forecast mistiness, mizzles and milder temps that deny a snowy or icy outlook so a difficult weather chart to be confident of for this phase, but I do expect the prolonged precipitation on 12-13th and I also expect at least one if not more river to burst its banks and create problems for motorists from the outset, air travel will also be affected by fogs and mists at some airports particularly for the second half of this phase.

6-7th as previously described
8th Cold start with frosts mists or even snow around in high places, but sunshine brightens up the middle part of the day, with temps growing moderate, but colder by evening when cloudy skies are around.
9th-10th Mists and fog around, some scattered often localised hail and sleet or winter showers with temps variable, climbing slightly higher on 10th but the outlook is increasingly unsettled. Cold to frosty conditions at night with southerlies clashing with cold northerlies and gusty westerlies trying to sort out the weather, but not succeeding, by late 10th. Temps can be unusually mild for this time of year but the air will be a little oppressive as a result.

11th Showers likely around mid day, some sun could break through later afternoon, but more gloom around by evening. Humidity levels are high…
12-13th Oppressive air rules and damp conditions can be chilly with muggy, misty mizzly conditions expected to culminate in prolonged if not abnormal precipitation from tonight into early morning on 13th, not nice conditions for these two days, though sun may breakthrough clouds late on 13th when easterlies prevail

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FEEDBACK Weather W Yorks and Yonder 16th-31st January

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Feedback 16th-23rd January
The general description for the phase proved accurate with freezing temps causing continuation of lakes and watering places to ice over, and sunny days accompanying these icy lows till 18th. Snow was forecast to Northern Scotland by 21st and beyond but haven’t had time to catch up with their weather. Mists and freezing fogs also arrived 16-17th in our region.

16th sunny with icy lows fogs and mists by nightime,
17th same as yesterday but milder as forecast, with mists around from overnight, everything still frozen over.
18th slightly milder temps than yesterday it was mizzly in spells t/out the day and more mizzly by 9pm approx, didn’t noitice any fogs

or mists in my locality but perhaps there was some in the valleys, the mizzly spells did produce some haziness, but wouldn’t call this

mists or fog, so not a spot on forecast for today.
19th Everything thawed today reflecting my forecast for milder temps, it was breezy and cloudy with a little sun amongst cloudy

weather I forecast correctly. We got hail and rainy outbreaks by 3pm and again at 11pm so a pretty accurate forecast for today.
20th Mizzly cloudy overcast am strong breezes at night, similar day to yesterday as forecast, no icy attempts at rain broke out that I

noticed.
21st. Very strong if not gale force winds some mizzle spells but mostly dry, no frost as forecast, so not accurate on temps side, and

failed to spot windy condition for today. But the TV mets did say snow for Northern parts of UK so this was an accurate bit of my

forecast.
22nd Dry day but icy pockets very windy but not as strong blasts as yesterday. The thaw was much earlier than I forecast arrivng on

19th rather than today, must tweak the maths a bit in my calc prog! Got the sunshine right for today!!

I award myself 90-95% accuracy overall for this phase, must do better next time!
Feedback 23rd-31st Jan

Snow did arrive for Scotland as forecast with winter showers hitting the Midland area around Wales and northern parts of England.

23rd Some clouds sunny but icy, 9.30 am brought some spray spells for us, rather than the 6am forecast and breeziness prevailed

then a heavy shower by 12 30 pm. The strong westerlies not around just breeziness. Cloudy start rather than misty, but yes temps

were seasonally cool.
24th Rainy then mizzly then very mizzly by 1pm providing the showery intervals I forecast and it was misty by evening, and I didn’t

notice any sun spells, though fewer clouds were around before lunchtime it was overcast by afternon and evening.
25th Drier day with a hint of sunshine milder temps than yesterday with sporadic squally winds from 7pm gaining some strength by

10pm but not gale force here. The west were experiencing worse weather than us for today. Not a good forecast for today only 50%

accurate.
26th A frosty start to the day. A sunny morning with some cloud around, icy temps reflects my very cold weather forecast ( news of

outbreaks to come for N and West regions but not for us) Cloudy by 11am. Sunny pm spattering of rain for 5 mins 3 40pm winds noisy and strong by 5pm, heavy rain by 6-7pm rainy again midnight. Blizzards for Scotland and N England ((% accurate
27th Sun with cloudy start, with frost or left over hail or sleet around by early morning. Quick shower 9 25 am, didn’t see any for 7am as I wasn’t able to weather watch at that time, sun plus cloudy pm and very cold temps, snow to some parts of the higher ground. 99% accurate!
28th Frosty start, dry day sunny 100% accurate
29th Frsoty start, some mists due to icy cold temps quick showers 8-9pm approx
30th Frosty start, cloudy and overcast day, less frosty temps than at weekend.
Apologies for not posting the forecast for 29/30th…just can’t get the staff these days!!

This forecast was 95+% accurate…..thank goodness, and it was done in October 2011!

Read the full winter 2012 season long range forecast at http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com
or follow more in depth weather forecasting info at http://www.starsite.org.uk

Weather Forecast W Yorkshire and Yonder 16th-31st January

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16th-23rd January

Some blue skies with sunshine for some days interrupted with static icy outbursts of hail and sleet, and snow for some UK regions.. Some arctic lows arrive

producing mists and fogs in low lying areas.

16th Icy conditions with snow for high slopes, quick winter showers after a gloomy mid day, skies clearing by 6 pm but more winter hail and sleet showers likely and cloud by 8-9 pm static conditions will bring in some reports of lightening showers today/tomorrow for some regions of UK.
17th Temps milder than yesterday but some mists/fog and dullness to start of day, snow potential for south of our region, we get icy showers outbursts 6pm and 8pm approximately, depending on your locality as these are very localised outbursts, but sunshine around in the afternoon.
18th Icy, icy, icy start but some blue skies around sunrise, icy cold outbursts around mid day.  Freezing fog around by evening and winter snow and sleetshowers arrive late at night
19th Temps slightly milder here than yesterday, static outbursts for some regions, snow  on high ground with easterlies creating some unsettled conditions. Sun and cloud with unsettled outlook arriving from west. A blizzard outlook can develop today bringing heavy snowfall to some regions beyond ours especially on high ground.
20th Much the same as yesterday but temps more variable and fluctuating, some clearer skies but icy pockets, but a little warmth from sun, quick icy attempts at showers likely for some localities in our region.
21st Midnight 20th-21st clearer conditions arrive. Sun around with cloud during the day, but arctic lows as weather travels easterly, the evening looks to bring some clearer skies for us but that means temps plunge lower with no cloud cover to keep things warm so frost and ice on roads prevails. The arctic conditions could ward off snow falling in our region today but I can’t be 100% certain, for there is a snowy outlook operating for some areas of UK
22nd Less severe low temps and some sunshine around today. Westerlies begin to prevail after today, growing strong, gusty and nippy over next 24 hours, but temps seem to be less severe and icicles look likely to be keeping everyone entertained today and tomorrow…..so there could be some thaw to iced over waters….

23rd-31st January

Similar conditions prevailed 31st March 2012 when blizzards hit Lancashire and Ireland got 1 foot of snow in 10 minutes causing chaos, but some modifications exist this time around bringing some variations on the theme back then. Snow looks likely to hit John O Groats region and winter showers hit  SW Midlands with weather pulled from SE to NW from 26th and seismic outbursts a trend for this phase.

23rd Strong westerlies, high speed continue for a few more days with outlook gloomy and rainy from start of 23rd still showery by 6am, clearing for a sunnier outlook by morning. Quick icy showers could arrive by evening with temps seasonally cool.
24th Slightly milder temps today, cloud mists in the early morning sudden showery intervals also. Skies look a little clearer by 10- 11 am so some sun spells expected during the day. Cloud around late evening with snow for high regions likely late evening.
25th Icy winter showery outbreaks, potential for snow flurries for our region, but west of us is likely candidate for heavier outbreaks than we get. Temps cold. Should be some sun conditions by afternoon with skies looking much clearer by 11pm.
26th Very cold weather with more news of winter blizzards could combine sleet and snow. A cloudy morning but sun spells by late afternoon, late evening looks icy and frosty or crisp underfoot so take care while journeying.
27th Southerlies and some easterlies which can bring in muggy conditions along with daybreak mists and fogs. Sun with cloud fro 7 am cloudier by 5pm. Some very heavy winter showers moving across from SE to NW regions. Expect icy showery intervals till late evening continuing into early next day.
28th Windy, icy cold, with ice frst particularly on exposed ground where strong winds can blow N Westerly turning into high speed gusts at times. Sun with cloud by the afternoon, with temps variable today from freezing cold to less severe, clearer conditions by 7pm.

FEEDBACK Forecast 1st-16th January W Yorks and Yonder

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Feedback 1-9th January

First of all I seem to be 5 days out with my tornado forecast for these were reported for Southsea, Hainault and Clacton-on-Sea. but on 3rd January….
I was accurate for the static weather, thunder and lightening was for Wales at the outset so this was timed accurately. I was accurate for the no floods for W Yorks as no reports of transport routes or homes flooded, though N Yorks had a worse encounter with heavier precip for the phase, as did Wales and Scotland.
My forecast for a less severe outbreak of weather was off the mark as the gales were much more destructive to some regions than I forecast, though certainly the winds did reign from 1-9th as predicted. Also the blizzards I thought might arise did arrive.

Earthquakes for Japan were at Honshu on 8th ( 5.2), the Aus one was for Tonga and Kermadec ( 5.0+), not Timor, though there was one for KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA just north of Aus and Timor on 8th at 4.2, not as big as I expected, and on 9th to Solomon islands to east of Aus…so a lot of seismicity due to the eclipse at this region of the globe, just as we would expect and of a size I expect which was 6.6. I have also been updated by another astrologer telling me: ”A 7.3 in Sumatra (10th Jan) and a 4.3 in east Timor – Your scored the ball right through the hoop! Awesome”  Thanks Catherine!

Feedback 9th-16th January
9th Sunny start at sunrise, but clouds gather brining mizzly weather 9-10am winds around still strong at times but not as bad as last week.
10th sunny star but cloudier by 10-=11am alternate breezes and winds, strong at times. Cold temps, cloudy pm and mizzles around by 4pm with less wind.
11th Cloudy start intermittent mizzles for morning, with slight breeziness. Dry later but very strong winds by 8pm and into overnight, as forecast.
12th Brought a very cold start, but sunshine to brighten the day which was dry. Overnight 11/12th The strong winds were raging around coastal regionsparticularly the NE coast linesfor England and Scotland, but no damage seems to be reported.
13th Oh dear the snow sleet or blizzards, was frost, no precipitation so not a good forecast for toady which was glorious and sunny with only a few clouds around but some very icy temps which were forecast.
14th-16th lovely crisp sunny day with blue skies and very little cloud and icy temps and frost staying around till mid day keeping things frosty.
Sadly for this phase I only get a low 50-60% accuracy for though it was icy and the sun shone as forecast, it was clearly too cold for the snow I forecast, and the gloom I forecast for the 15th was freezing fogs that didn’t clear till late afternoon.

Lets see how well I do for the second half of January!>>>>

Written by tricia astro meteorologist

January 16, 2012 at 2:04 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

1st-16th January Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder

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1-9th January 2012
I expect some fine sunny and dry weather generally and 3-5th will have some refreshing atmospheric conditions prevailing, but there will be some windiness as well with tornado potential for 8th ( not in our region probably to south of us) when southerly flows clash with north westerlies. Some static release either thunder or lightening is also likely for some UK regions from the outset of this phase.

Some unusual daytime seasonal wintry ‘highs’ can offset the more frosty conditions expected. There is potential for precipitation to be snow or sleet for this phase. I’m only 90% confident of this forecast as there are a few conditions that could bring blizzards, and with some of the features present in my maps we have seen floods previously, though not in the West Yorkshire region, and I don’t expect any after the 2nd of January……famous last words perhaps! Generally a quarter Moon phase at this time of year should not arouse severe weather……

However, seismicity is high on 8th and regions vulnerable are E of China Japan regions and N Aus area Timor island area

1st Strong gusty westerlies, temps seasonally moderate with hail, sleet and snow showers around 1-2 am, and again 1-3pm but clearer skies by evening but some sunshine to brighten in between.

2nd Easterly wind flows with muggy conditions and potential for more sleet and hail showers 3-4pm Clouds and mists around by evening, especially in the Aire Valley, but by midnight stargazers should get a good clearer glimpse of the world beyond ours…photographers would also get good midnight scene shots.

3rd Breezy spells with moderate temps and some sunshine with cloud but the air will be refreshing and outdoor pursuits more enjoyable in this kind of atmosphere. Even with winter showers which could be around for some localities further east of ours, not ours I don’t think, the air will feel exhilarating and bracing with these kind of conditions.

4th Strong westerlies continue, sun with cloud but clearer skies late at night.

5th Sleet or localised hail showers to the west of us around mid day, but we seem to remain dry. Cool temps greet us in the morning, but it looks like from today until 10th January they begin to go higher than is seasonally usual bringing in some new records. Westerlies turn southerly which also indicates milder temps for the season.

6th Sunny day, some cloud and nebulous breezes. Any winter showers would arrive between 7-9am and if I’m right we see snow to west and rain to east of us by 1-3pm

7th Southerlies and some fogs and mists around from outset with sun breaking through after sunrise quick icy showers likely 10-11pm, strong easterly outlook and a snow bringer harbinger for intermittent winter showers

8th-Should be some sunshine around with strong southerlies seasonally mod-high temps. Fast windy outbreaks likely, Tornado conditions created as mentioned earlier as southerlies conflict with some icy cold strong N Westerlies that can bring snow blizzards. Very nippy conditions in exposed and shaded areas, warmth from sun in sheltered areas. EQ headline expected on 8th—+/- 1 day.

Read on for 9th….the N Westerlies will be strong and icy from 11th onwards on so wrap up warmly. High winds and blizzards are likely to be prominent features weather wise till 21st January t/out UK regions but our main focus is on W Yorks and yonder……

9th- 16th January

Watch the weather change abruptly after 12th this week……..
A sudden jolt arrives by 12th when very icy lows arrive bringing a sudden change in temperature for our region. N W winds are still active on 12th also but these will blow away unwanted cloud leaving some sun and a fresh atmosphere, icy temp pockets in exposed or shaded regions.
Snow is almost guaranteed for 14th and beyond
Blizzards look likely to affect UK regions disrupting traffic and power lines from 8th-21st January.

9th-12th Overall for these days I do expect sunshine along with some unusually rising seasonal temps around, but these also indicate extra cold frosty nights when we see lovely crisp clear skies, but these combinations can also give birth to some freezing fogs and mists as well….winds as outlined above….

11th Frosty start but some sun during the day after early morning clouds and mist. Frost and potential for snow by 23:15 with southerlies active,
12th The warmth begins to be drawn southwards later today leaving us with breathtaking lows and a turn around from the temperatures on previous days. Freezing fogs can cause travel problems from early morning, clearing around mid day for some sun to come out during the afternoon but cold nippy gusty westerlies keep everyone on their toes.
13th Sun with cloudy start, south easterlies bringing in some mugginess and snow clouds forming. Winter showers likely 5-7am looks like snow or sleet blizzards.
14th Cold temps continue with some hope of sunshine during the day but snow bearing clouds release their load by evening with northerlies around late evening to clear up some of the muggy air.
15th Snow likely to continue till early this morning. Looks gloomy for first part of day, clearing slightly during the afternoon, with betters conditions for late evening, cold temps continue.
16th Winter showers around from 6-7 am, and 2-3pm with some sun attempts in between, but still some muggy air around leading to a slight rise in temps on previous days……. 5-6pm brings in a better outlook.
Read the full winter 2012 season long range forecast at  www.amazingweather.wordpress.com
or follow more in depth weather forecasting info at www.starsite.org.uk

Fortnightly forecasts will continue your regular W Yorks and Yonder weather predictions for 2012. Please sign up to have them delivered to your inbox and do leave a comment about the blog before you leave. Thanks for reading!

Written by tricia astro meteorologist

January 3, 2012 at 9:02 pm