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Archive for February 2012

Weather Froecast W Yorks and Yonder 1st-15th March

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1st-8th March 2012
Thunderstorms and lightening are signalled during this phase, with spring temps warming up a little to boost hopes of better weather to come….Some mistiness expected for 6-8th and strong winds from outset with Market Harborough region likely to experience on 5th, some unusual if not record breaking weather, near tornado type wind activity or wind clashes are prevalent during this phase. There is a promise of a little good outdoor weather but this could quickly change leaving you exposed to some rapid changes that catch you out, so be warned that nothing is to be left for granted weather wise…mistiness can arise 6-8th but clearer outlook afterwards…..

1st Strong winds expected with easterly flows in the mix, temps moderate with some cool pockets coming downslope by the evening,  mistiness around cloud and some lightening or static outburst expected for today, icy showers if not hail by 11pm also. Outlook is seismic for today +/- 2-3 days.

2nd N westerlies around strong at times, some variable mix of winds produce easterly and southerly clashes as well, squally winds expected. Temps vary from cool to moderate but much cooler by evening, a very unsettled outlook again, with risk of more static outbursts by evening. Showers look to be localised and scattered 7-9pm short and sharp but heavy at times. Some sunshine with cloud, but no guarantees…

3rd Mod temps but some cold pockets around especially in exposed high places, broody southerlies around today and tomorrow, sun, cloud, wind and rain expected, a kind of all weather outlook

4th Variable winds strong at time, strong easterlies to start with, followed by strong westerlies whizzing about, SE by afternoon and SW by evening. Cloudy, but sun at the start of the day, misty showery outlook overall, with conditions a bit murkier to the west of our W Yorks region, looks like some clearer outlook for us by 8pm, but don’t hold your breath…a quick showery outbreak could also arrive at this time too….

5th This day heralds sudden weather changes and static outbursts with intermittently strong NW winds likely, and cold pockets around in spite of some warming trends as sun gains strength. Better outlook by mid day with some sunshine around and warmth if sun gets out….

6th Cold from very early but milder later. Mists arrive today but also milder temps, with cloud around for the most part during the day. Can’t see much sun but I could be wrong…this is a cold November day today…

7thMuch milder today with a spring outlook developing should remain dry with some sun attempts to let us know the earth is quickening and summer is on its long journey into the northern hemisphere… Should stay dry but breezy

8th The bad weather travels NW to SE today and a clear outlook with sunshine expected…….
8th-15th March
Time allowed only a brief tour for this phase. So not a daily forecast unfortunately…

Mostly a dry phase but there will be reports of t/storms for some UK regions, we may be lucky and avoid such outbreaks locally. The phase looks mostly dry and spring like with warming temps to bring out plant growth but some strong winds at time predominantly westerly, remainig breezy in between the strong bouts of windy weather.
Rain is most noteable on 9th and 14th and some rumblings of t/storms likely 14th-16th as spring continues its journey into the northern hemishpere. 11-12th is when temperatures will rise but this leads to static oubreaks in days afterwards depending where you are in the UK

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Feedback W Yorks and Yonder Weather Feb 14th-29th

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FEEDBACK 14th FEB

Oh dear, the only rain to the east for 14th was a tiny amount passing over Bridlington and surrounding areas, and that was so light with no floods from previous phase—happily. But this did put my forecast to shame. I did see the high front coming down from Foroyar where my charts showed it forming, but I didn’t expect it to block the precipitation, though clearly it is good that no floods arrived; but a learning curve for future reference and I think looking at Spring now the experience will come in handy. 14th turned out to be cloudy and a little breezy, but dry and temps much milder now that the moon has gone south taking the cold air with it. Some areas like Wales had some light snowfall apparently, but not enough to write home about.
15th We got a lovely sunny morning with just a few clouds around and mild temps continuing, with some ice on large water areas, but defrosting of them continues. Some cheeky sporadic breezes keep branches swaying. 16th we didn’t get gales but blustery winds blowing trees around and some ice ledges evidenced the icy outlook continuing as forecast, some spray arrived also which I hadn’t foreseen. 17th gave some sun spells  with pathways and road stil wet from precip of yesterday so stil a lot of damp air around. 18th as forecast 19th gave a  cloudy start and even the met warned of rain for the weekend but theweather gave a hint of spring with sunshine showery stuff  didn’t arrive it turned out lovely and sunny. 20th as forecast

FEEDBACK 21st Feb-1st March
The overview was highly accurate apart from wind reaching gale force though certainly they were a bit wild by 26 and 27th but mostly overnight which seems to have been a pattern so far this winter.
21 Sun with cloud milder temps rather than the icier ones I foecast with sporadic windy outbreaks. Dry with sun spells 85% accurate
22 Rainy till 9am very blustery winds strong at times some sun spells mid day with some spray outbreaks arriving Some precip arrived very early morning as forecast temps mod so 100% accurate for today
23 Exactly as forecast
24th Still rainy from previous ight sun between fast moving cloud winds still fairly strong but a dry day lovely sunny pm, cold temps 100% accuracy
25th glorious am but cold temps strong blustery winds 5pm onwards 95% accurate no mists that I noticed in my locality
26th fair and dry day some sun spells, windy outbreaks strong at times average to cool temps.
By 27th this forecast for our region was posted by netweather ”’Although the UK is sure to be proclaimed as hotter than plenty of random places in the media this week, despite being unseasonably mild – it is still colder than Florida”
Yep Netweather we are colder than Florida and the temps are cool today!!! That’s the problem with all those mets being under pressure to pull a rabbit out of a hat, they just pull out any statistic in order to prove some record has been broken this year- last years- sometimes never…….and to think astrologers get all the bad press for scaremongering…..27th was cold damp and gloomy with some sporadic mizzly drizzly and windy intervals……and a friend sent me news of another hit with an EQ as forecast…”Great call on the seismic this past week. A 4.7 in France on Feb 26th You nailed it exactly.” Thanks Stephanie for the heads up….I wonder if there might be a bigger one around by 1st though???
27th turned into a mizzly drizzly day not good for anything outdoors but not a major rainy event….winds did get sporadically wild and windy but not gale strength in our region I don’t think…
28th Yes a more settled day with no precip during the day although ground still wet from perhaps a continued mizzle overnight into very early hours. Temps moderate. Outlook overcast today.

Weather Forecast 1st-14th March 2012 W Yorks and Yonder

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14th-21st Feb
The worst of the floods should be coming over and I expect many areas to be affected by this heavy precipitation which will see heavy amounts fall in a short space of time helping February match if not beat its record set for England and Wales in 1848.
A weather system moves down from the Isle of Foroyar to NW Scotland from 14th, and is followed by a cold icy weather flow forming off the S E coast of Iceland bringing some cold icy conditions to northern highlands travelling S Easterly down Great Britain for this phase.

14th Rain will be travelling eastwards and flood warnings continue, some in our region from yesterday, some static outbursts and lightening could accompany this flow with drains overflowing and roads affected. Cool temps with some cold pockets around. Some sunshine with cloud during the day.

15th N Westerlies around today, strong at times, mild to mod temps for season, some sunshine around but rain expected by 7-8pm

16th  mod temps during the day but icy by night time, cloud with sunshine winds NW can be strong and speedy and lashing, gales likely.

17th Some gloom fogs and mists before sunrise clearer by 7 am, cold outlook but bluer sky  outlook  by 9 am with sunshine arriving auguring a nice sunny day mild temps a little cloud around and some southerly intrusions into the less active whippy westerlies bringing in some cloud for the evening.

18th Expect early morning showers, clouds and mists around from night before, some cool temps but clear skies with sunshine during the day. Strong if not high speed winds expected by today, very unsettled conditions prevail with clear skies soon clouding over then clearing again.

19th Variable temps today, some sunshine, variable winds, mists and mizzly evening weather, followed by more very heavy  rain 7pm approx.

20th Clearer skies today, after a misty muggy start, with a cold nippy outlook during the day, zippy westerlies strong at times, and rain coming over to the south western parts of UK today.

21st Dry but icy pockets mingle with some mild to mod temps in sunshine. Cloudy by evening with rain to west leaving us dry.

21st Feb -1st March 2012

Outlook is for some fine weather interrupted by scattered showery intervals, temps look mostly moderate for the season but some icy pockets around. Some windy weather expected with strong if not gales for us by 26th. I don’t expect high levels of precipitation to reach flood capacity, in  fact many winter showers look light if frequent, but 26th-27th looks to bring  heavier rain but this will clear the air and provide refreshing conditions that make even a wet walk in the wood seem uplifting, though the strong winds might make it a little risky in case of dead branches being blown off…..
Seismic conditions herald a large EQ for end of this phase, and 1st is likely time with Spain, SE of Madrid and France looking to be affected.

21st As already outlined in previous phase, I expect winter showers to be travelling over here in the morning and moving over to eastern parts by afternoon leaving chilly temps in their wake, some little warmth in sun but mostly cold with southerlies and some easterlies around. Some mistiness and cloud around by evening in valleys and especially to regions to the east of W Yorks.

22nd Icy showers before sunrise and mid afternoon, clouds around clearing by 9 pm some sunshine breaks during the day, temps seasonally moderate, breeziness prevails with air currents strong to the easterly quarter.

23rd Quick spartan icy showery along with sunny outbreaks 9am and later in day, not long lasting,  gusty westerly windy weather continues into today, fair temps around  but icy showers keep things wintry. By 9pm still windy, fair outlook and still showery outbreaks which continue to be localised and scattered until next morning.

24th Sun with cloud by late morning should remain drier today but a strong northerly keeps temps cool

25th A sunny and bright day, though winter sleet showers around 10 am expected. Cold temps as strong northerlies give way to  some winds westerly, strong  and gusty from the outset but these turn to south westerlies by 2 pm, and will build to stronger outburst as day progresses Mists and cloud by 8pm.

26th-27th Cooler temps,  strong windy weather that can bring gale strengths into play, 7 am on 26th brings showery conditions with more cloud forming by 1pm more rainy outbreaks overnight into 27th when intermittent rainy spells refresh the air but keep things wet wet wet. Some south easterlies coming in on 27th also

28th Should be more settled outlook, moderate temps winds can still be brisk.
29th Quick showers expected around 9 am,  temps icy lots of cold pockets rolling down from north and a frosty outlook highly likely by evening.  Winds gusty North Westerly strong and speedy at times. Some sunshine expected for today.
1st March Temps moderate for season during the day but frosty cold at night winds variable but very strong and high speed at times, showery outbreaks from 2am and again risk of more by 10pm

Feedback 1st-14th Feb 2012 W Yorks and Yonder Weather Forecast

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FEEDBACK 1-7th Feb
The north of England got the lowest temp for this phase by 6th when Yorkshire reported -8 I think, the lowest recorded temp so far for the season I believe, so this part of the forecast was accurate. The icy freezes were around with waters freezing over to W Yorks and yonder from 2nd. Snow arrived to the east from 1-2nd, none arrived here, so I was a little off the mark with the locality forecast, but acccurate with mists and fogs to our region by 6th. No mizzly weather here however, so not an accurate part of the forecast, but by 5th we did get constant though thin snowfall that was prolonged leaving 2 inches of cover for out locality and yonder.
I was correct with the forecast for sunshine for the 3rd which was glorious and sunny and for 5th -also sunny but cloudy by late evening. 6th-7th very accurate dry with sunshine around and cold pockets and some signs of breezes rustling through leaves, though no showery outbreaks on 6th. Fogs and mists arrived 4-5 pm on 7th, not much sun during the day and as forecast the night sky was clearer.
95% accuracy for this forecast.

Feedback 8- 14th Feb

Generally the mists and fog forecast was accurate but airlines seemed to be going alright from local airport, or no news came to my ears that they were struggling! Heathrow already experienced problems before this phase started. The conflicts of weather did arrive giving snow, frost, mists and mizzles and milder temps during the day from 8th onwards, but freezing cold at night. Motorists were encountering problems with icy oily greasy roads from the outset as forecast they would. . In Stoke people were experiencing rain turning to ice immediately it hit the pavement leaving many pedestrians injured as they slipped on the invisible dangers.
8th was cloudy but some sun spells to brighten us up and lakes remained frozen. Some mild breezes moved leaves on evergreens An accurate forecast for today.
9th was overcast and icy with rain and sleet coming down from the NW at 10 10 am, only light cover for 5-10 mins, then heavier precip from 11 am for aobut one hour, mostly sleet but some dusting of snow to branches on trees. Misty pm with drizzle frosty icy overnight reminded us of November as promised. A 90% accurate forecast for today, didn’t notice any sudden gusty weather…but then I was asleep perhaps when they arrived! Temps got milder today during the day.
10th Thick overnight frost and light dusting from very early morning still lying around, an icy misty start and a frosty evening. Temps were milder during the day today and on 11th and snow began thawing a little during the day time.
11th Frosty start and it was a gloomy day as forecast with no sun coming through at all, very little snow left by evening but dampness filling the air. Didn’t notice any showers around mid day…did you?
12th Overcast and milder temps around than earlier in the week but the lake is still frozen, but smaller ponds and water areas are thawed.
13th Milder temps, dry day but overcast. Sun beginning to breakthrough a little by 4-5pm. Some breeziness making branches sway.No precipitation at all, so this forecast only 80% accurate for these two days!!

For the full Winter season forecast published December 2011 visit www.starsite.org.uk or visit  amazingweather.wordpress.com