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Archive for March 2012

W Yorks and Yonder Long Range Weather Forecast 31st March-13th April

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March 31st-April 6th 

Outlook is for very cold temps to begin with but sunshine to brighten us up, and some warmer temps by 4th helping us look forward to summer. The windy weather continues and I expect reports of a t/storm to some region of the UK.

31st Strong gusty NW, lashing everything it meets, high speed to some regions. Sunny outlook but temps retaining icy pockets, cloud around but clearing as sun grows stronger by mid day. Potential for quick isolated hail outburst late afternoon

1st – 4th April some cloud around with nippy icy pockets, but lots of sunshine to enjoy by mid day. It’s the winds that create problems during these few days, any showery outbreaks icy cold hail or sleet, look set to arrive around midnight
4th Should see temperatures rising a little, wind still strong and gusty, some sunshine with cloud. Temps on high ground expected to drop to lows.
5th Same as 4th but cloudy or misty start and more cloud around in the evening, quick hail/sleet showers by midnight. Temps getting warmer with humidity around producing some warmer almost tropical outpourings to some regions beyond ours. Winds should be less active by today.
6th Sunny, and looks like  the warmest day of all, but some mists and clouds as a result. Some broody easterlies and southerlies warding off the cold pockets of previous days. A misty cloudy start but temps getting much more agreeable as day wears on.

6th-13th April

A similar chart to this one occurred in October 2009 when heavy rain arrived giving floods to Scotland. I do expect t/storms to be reported to some regions of the UK.

Well first of all we have the infamous perigee moon that always brings headlines to read about some major weather induced incident…I hesitate to say disaster as I don’t want to follow global warmers who hog headlines with disaster warnings all the time…since Aristotle’s day as it happens….still on with the weather…

This perigee moon gave a me a headache as earlier in February ( the same week I am writing this I might add) when I fully expected good old Scorpio Moon to bring heavy rain if not flooding, I was humiliated by the total drought that ensued!! Yes I VERY ACCURATELY forecast a weather system coming down from Foroyar which it did, and resulted in a high pressure system that blocked the Moon in Scorpio from delivering the floods I expected….Harrumph.  Iwas so annoyed at not expecting this to happen! So much so, that I hesitated to deliver this spring forecast which I was working on at the time, and felt like throwing in the towel on astro forecasting!
I still might have to if I have to resort to using jargon such as high and low pressure and isobars which is not what I want to do.

In spite of the above, there will be some fine weather to enjoy and evenings for this phase usually bring pleasanter conditions, while there will be some windy weather and some rain around–well it is a perigee moon phase…..but there is also a massive drought indicator as well planet wise…
Oh and if you are laughing at the fact the moon perigee has anything to do with weather….shame really as there are some immaculate studies that show a significant correlation between high precipitation at the time of perigee moons, though of course not all perigees will bring high levels of rainfall.
6th as forecast previously

7th Some mists or cloud around, muggy conditions with easterlies and southerlies active keeping conditions seasonally mild outlook is for rain heavy at times for late afternoon with some clearer skies late evening and overnight

8th Some showery outbreaks 3-5 am, unsettled atmosphere with cloudiness around till later in afternoon, temps cooler than yesterday, some sporadic breeziness southerly and westerly for today and tomorrow.

9th Same as yesterday with some potential for sporadic hail and sleet outbreaks. Sun with cloud during day.

10th-11th Cloudy start but sunnier afternoon and evening, temps cool. 11th looks brighter than 10th

12th Sun with cloud around, temps warming up, some easterly breeziness and clear evening skies good for outdoors and gardening or even a stroll…famous last words!

13th  Sunshiny start and looks like some nice spring temps remind us summer is just around the corner…easterly breezes keep the warmth notched up.

Read amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and the WHOLE OF Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is nearly ready to post to keep coming back to find out what awaits us in the summer

season….go to www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

 

Apologies for the display in this forecast, can’t figure why changes aren’t being made by the edit in wordpress….hopefully it wont affect the weather outlook:-)

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FEEDBACK Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder 15th-30th March 2012

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Feedback 15th-22nd March
Wet and very windy weather burst out across Scotland and NW regons as forecast for this phase..
16th sunshine with cloud, dry day and very breezy by 6pm, static not released till early next day…
17th rainy very early around daybreak? sunnier pm and a t/storm by 5 pm, not a lot of rainfall as mentioned in the forecast.
18th Sunny day, fluffy cloud but cold temps.no rain here, so this forecast perhaps a day out and should have been recorded for 17th instead, though some rain may have arrived to some localities let me know if it was yours?
19th Yes good forecast with gusting breezy becoming windy weather, cold with sun spells, very unsettled
20th Yes a very accurate forecast some gusty windy spurts but some blue sky with cloud around…note the warning of some temps rising….very accurate as it heralded the warmth of the week that did follow and cheered us all up.
21st and 22nd as forecast except no hail outbreaks noted and some haze around 22nd with the sun.

Feedback 22nd-30th March
This was a drought phase, as forecast and at the start we did have some brisk winds, though these didn’t get strong in our region. Strong breezes broke out most evenings, not strong winds!
Here’s what happened, not too far out but not 100% accurate either…
23rd Sunny day with cloud
24th was thick fog sunny later in the day but haziness lingered the same on 25th as forecast, with nippy temps but some fine skies once fogs had cleared.
26thTemps still nippy but lovely skies with sunshine, these first few days brought fogs and  frostiness overnight rather than the showers I had forecast…..
27th-29th brought some fine weather with temps rising silghtly earlier than I had forecast for 29th
30th Was cloud at the outset but clearer by mid day with sunshine and better skies for the afternoon but temps were cold out of the sun as all week really, and if you thought wearing summer clothes was the best way to respond to the hysterical reporting of ‘a heatwave’ then you may have ended up with influenza. Remember ”ne’er cast a clout till May is out, ” no matter how sensational the weather headlines may be.

I couldn’t find any tornado outbreak for England for the dates I mentioned there might be one, and am disappointed this year with my forecast for wind levels, in spite of updating the calcs in my data prog..Of course the US had a mass outbreak of tornados around this time and perhaps any mini UK ones didn’t hit the headlines, as usually they are not as intrusive in our country. Sad that so few get reported for our climate when I know we get them often in my region sometimes raging up the street overnight but no one bats an eyelid…..

Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder 15th-31st March

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15th-22nd March

This phase brings in some fine serene outdoor weather, especially to eastern parts,  but also it is characterised by  strong and sometimes gale force winds mostly West and N Westerlies, Some drying trends and unsettled conditions with the sun moving North on 19th. I expect news reports of strong gales causing disruptions to power lines around 18/20th, depending on your UK region,  as well as to traffic,  probably Scotland again, but high lying regions generally to north also affected. Precipitation more likely mid day to midnight for this phase.  Extreme west UK and GB coastal regions such as Caenarvon, Pembroke Cornwall NW Scotland etc look likely to be worst hit by the strong winds for this phase.

16th Temps on the rise strong N Westerlies often gusty and strong and lasting next couple of days. Some sunshine expected and mostly dry weather, the rise in temp could lead to some static outbursts.

17th Winds strong continuing gusty intervals, risk of showery outbreaks today, heavier to west of our region but winds could fetch  rain here. The low pressure looks south east at this stage.

18th The weather looks more unsettled, with sunshine and  cloud, with winds not knowing whether to stay or go. Temps can be cold but some warmth from sunshine and rain is definitely around our region in the afternoon especially when dark clouds can reign,  and could be heavy at times, but I see no risk of floods from this level of precipitation.

19th Sunshine and fair weather clash with some passing gloomy clouds but winds look to be strong enough to take away any darkening of the skies. I expect some blue skies to prevail today and tomorrow.

20th Strong gusty sometimes high speed winds expected to rev up again, N Westerly, some blue skies to brighten up the outlook, but cold, but after today temps could heat up to remind us that summer is just around the corner….

21st Sun with cloud around but high temps expected could lead to quick showery outbreaks by evening…….winds look  less active by today…

22nd Sunshine, blue sky and N Westerly spurts keeping temps exposed to cold pockets, hail or fast sleet showery outbreaks but will be short lived. Winds turn more high speed and westerly by afternoon. Brisk south westerlies begin to blow in for tomorrow…..

March 22-30th

 A mostly dry phase with sunshine to enjoy though some spartan sudden showery outbreaks of hail or sleet likely 22nd, then 24th and 25th with heavier outburst not likely to arrive till 30th

Temperatures look set to be on the cool side with some biting N W winds adding to coldness of weather and getting gusty and very aggressive at times from 24th

25th sees a break up of sunshine weather with some cloudiness and humidity or mist down in valleys or above watery flows. and easterlies can be a little broody, but sunnier days expected to follow.

26th sees some isolated windy frenzy causing a stir at 48 mph gusts for some localities W Yorks n Yonder, and on 28th some showery outlook late evening with some tornado outbreak likely to SW Midlands region…I’ll be trying to track this outlook.

29th brings warmer temps from sunshine during the day and southerlies more active.

 

Read amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, the whole  Spring season is already posted on there if you want to plan ahead…Summer is nearly ready to post so keep coming back to find out what awaits us in the summer season….go to www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

FEEDBACK W Yorks Weather and Yonder 1st-15th March

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FEEDBACK 1-8th
My weather buddy reported that the windy weather was out to the west peninusular and I found I had been using a wrongly timed chart for the winds for this phase, this is the first time this has happened in 9 years, so I do apologise, it has never happened before and hopefully will never happen again.

1st some hazy and mists around mild but still blocking full sunshine, though some sunny outcome later in afternoonCONTINUE
2nd The sun never seemed to get out of the haze today so my forecast for this type of eather was on the ball. No preicpiation(CHECK) for morning precip??)
3rd was an all weather day with some breeziness around but only in fits and starts, rainy spells interrupted by sunny or clearer spells t/out the day and night and the temps were a little cooler than previous days. Still some haziness but mild.
4th SNOW 10 43 am for us after a rainy start to the day. Temps much cooler than yesterday, no wind at all today……mistiness to distance still obtains…
5th lovely sunny day but cold…no static outburst here…mild breeze later in day.
6th as forecast, but some mild frost to region overnight, very cold day and sun did shine! Breezy by pm (met says SSW at 8mph!!!) didn’t feel like it!
7th a drizzly mistly rainy start with cold temps and breezes mostly westerly according to the met….a little stronger than yesterdays breeze and up to 40mph gusty to some areas
8th overcast am and dry day, only a little sun and cold to icy temps—so not a good forecast for sunshine for today…so sorry!!

FEEDBACK 8th-15th March
A very accurate forecast with rain on 9th as forecast and better weather from 11th, with strong breezy conditions on 9-10th. No rain on 14th but there is still time for some spatterings to arrive, but curently warm and sunny after cloudy hazy start…….will it arrive as forecast after today? Read my next feedback at end of March…..

Read amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is nearly ready to post to keep coming back to find out what awaits us in the summer season….go to www.starsite.org.uk  if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…