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Archive for June 2012

19th June – 3rd July Summer Weather W Yorks and Yonder 2012

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19th-27th June

This phase interrupts the previous good weather but then it is the solstice and usually at this time we get used to seeing lots of people in muddy wellies trying to find their way around Glastonbury and taking unplanned mud baths. ( new edit—Glastonbury doesn’t meet this year, so don’t expect a repeat of these scenes-we already had them at the Jubilee Pageant 🙂  )
For this week for us there are some fair and not so fair indications arriving and it took a lot of time to tease out what the planets were trying to tell me so bear with me for this forecast, hopefully I got the right messages……but no guarantees.

There will be some fair conditions overall but also some t’storms around elevated places like hills and moor tops due to static conditions that are brewing. We can expect sudden low temps to herald not just hail showers and sleet, even snow showers on some elevations, but also some frostiness overnight. Mists are prevalent in valleys and near watery places and more likely to arrive mid phase…. The mildest temps look likely to break out from 24th which should be a fine day if only it wasn’t for the misty start that may stay around and create haze that blocks full on sun, but I hopefully am wrong about this…..

20th  Quick hail or sleet outbreak potential around 9-11 am, with a fair breezy showery outlook before sunrise. Temps look warmer to east and south today, we may get some good temps in our locality but beware sudden drops in temps and expect cold pockets to be strong by evening along with cloud appearing to gather. Easterlies begin to flow by 8-9pm warning of cooler temps to arrive and some precipitation likely by 9-10 pm it could be sleet or hail, even snow on high ground, with frostiness around to greet tomorrow. Some potential for prolonged showery intervals hail, sleet if not t/storms very late evening.

21st Potential for a frosty start with more hail, sleet or snow outbreaks expected before or around sunrise, temps may rise slightly as sun tries to rise to solstice position, but mostly cold conditions reign, with clearer skies. Scattered showers for during the day but some blue skies with cloud heavier at 2-3pm Some southerlies keep things from being wintery, some gusty NW can arise on exposed areas

22nd Fair outlook from sunrise, after some quick showery attempts at start of 22nd,  with some brilliant blue skies and lovely clear atmosphere during the day, I hope. Temps on the low side with scattered showery intervals likely by evening into early next day,  over as soon as they begin. Southerly flows stop temps getting too biting but I’m not ruling out frosty ovenight conditions or this could be a marker for dew on the ground so be warned if camping….occasional gusty N Westerlies around so make sure your tent is well pegged if camping on exposed areas………

23rd Flash t/storms expected along with fierce hail or sleet outbreaks combine with gusty north westerlies. Mists and haze and cloud can hover around watery places and valleys, a lot of humditiy around keeping things chilly, cloudy as well by  evening with some heavy showery conditions hail and sleet again, but this looks heavier, though not prolonged into overnight.

24th Looks like a better day with a misty start but if the sun can make its way through the haze it should become a fair day, then there should be some warming temps just a little muggy with haziness around and nebulous breezes

25th Summer is breaking through in case you hadn’t noticed but where is all that nice weather I wonder…..This afternoon looks a little damp with even some mizzly drizzly stuff around, but temps feel less hostile for a summer outlook, but this condition could result in some fogs and mistiness. Luckily some northerlies are around from evening trying to clear up the muggy trend.

26th-27th look like better days with some warmth from sun and slight rise in temps, much clearer skies by 27th which should bring a fine night. Venus finally stops her seeming backward motion on these days also.

27th June-3rd July

I’m only giving a quick tour for this phase as it does look mostly settled weather wise with some fresh atmosphere around 29th and 30th and lots of sunshine as well to follow. There could be some windy and breezy outbreaks now and again, but nothing too upsetting for outdoor activity.

Looking at my charts the east coast seems to be the place to be for this phase as the sun looks likely to shine down those shores……. This looks like a fine weather phase so make the most of it. Temps look set to climb by 2-3rd and this could bring some static outburst to north Scotland at beginning and for us by the end.

The 3rd is unsettled and there could be a risk of lightening or other static outburst for some along with some windiness beginning to be a little fiercer.

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FEEDBACK 28th May-19th June W Yorks and Yonder

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FEEDBACK 28th May-4th June
The overview for this phase was quite accurate with hot temps from previous phase staying around with fair weather till 29th-30th for us but t/storms, as forecast, hit the southern regions with floods around the M25 orbital and beyond. The 30th sustained the highs for us but by 1 30pm a brief visit from a rain shower began to release static that had accumulated, and by 9 30 pm torrential conditions began to reign ( if you pardon the pun) continuing into the momrning of 31st which became a cooler and rainy day.
1st was a grey day with some occasional spray in the morning but remaining dry for the most part, so a reasonably good forecast.
2nd grey again but dry with brightness around, some haze and mists to high ground at Otley and Baildon and other high areas so reasonable forecast for this day
3rd Rained all day so Neptune brought prolonged mizzles and drizzles beyond the station position of 2nd, and the Jubilee Pageant on the Thames challenged the British bulldog talent for

enduring the weather assaults.
4th a Lovely sunny day mostly and dry even though spits and spots of rain broke out now and again!

Feedback 4th June-11th

Certainly the 4th was a reasonable evening for a BBQ session, as everyone enjoyed the Jubilee concert and picnics in the park, along with the lighting of the beacons, but the one on Otley Chevin seemed to have suffer exposure to more rainy spells than we got, and the 5th and 6th were dry evenings with some bright skies to our region anyway, tell me if you were in Bingley or Keighley and beyond and got different weather?
SADLY the Venus Sun conjunction started to remind us of the power of the planets to bring a repeat of the 2004 effect and weather warnings began pouring out of the met office as monsoon proportions of rain spoiled events, activities and outings throughout the UK. Fortunately we were spared the extremes locally but my forecast did go pear shaped for the second part of this phase.
5th wasn’t as hot as I expected and showery outbreaks brought in unsettled conditions by 6th the day of the Venus Sun conjunction, and 7th saw windy weather with heavy rain for most of the day.

8th saw recreational pathways flooded with puddles left by the downpour around here and

9th saw full cloud cover of the sky with no sun breaking out until 1 30 and a hail shower by 2.10pm that was quite heavy, so not a good outdoor day at all.
The 10th was spectacular as a sunny day for many parts of the W Yorks region but interrupted by late afternoon/evening with torrential rains. Travelling down from N Yorks leaving behind some lovely sunny spells today, motorists were suddenly confronted by literal monsoon conditions that brought floods to country lanes around the Ouse area, as well as rivers running on main roads as drivers struggled in poor visibility to battle the strength of sheets of water covering their windscreens and bringing in dangerous driving conditions. As usual some localities escaped the worst of this moving down from Harrogate to Poole, but at Poole and Otley some micros brought in pockets of heavy rain whilst pockets of good weather were experienced either side of them!!

Poor Wales got the worst of the bulk of the downpour this time around with Ceredigion floodings and then people in Pennal Wales, worried about a crack in a quarry dam wall that forced people to move out of their homes too, as rain pelted down threatening to deluge homes there on 10th.

An eventful weather week and I wasn’t surprised that we got a similar result to the 2004 Venus Sun transit in the UK, but the 10th reminded me, as I drove through alternating monsoons and clear weather within the space of only 20 miles from York to Leeds, of how difficult it is to forecast for localities due to our micro climate. Even the BBC news around 6 pm warned only of bad conditions to the NE of England, and little mention on the news of the appalling conditions in N Yorks, and apparently Swillington got flooded, but it is a flood prone area of the city…..

No wonder we always talk about the weather as a national occupation as there is always plenty it brings our way to shock, amaze or sometimes please us!
Feedback 11th-June-19th
11th was unsettled with some breezes, cool evening no sunshine noticed in my locality but wider afield experienced some better sunshine spells!
12th same as yesterday with sunshine spells arriving to my locality as well as others, no breezes though
13th Cloudy day here but brighter by afternoon some spray by 6 30 pm temps ave to mild for season
14th Warmer temps today windy by eveining and heavy rain by 10pm onwards into early 15th
15thSome sun attempts warmt temps remain showery/rain by 1 45pm
16th Sunshine cloud and widely spaced intervals of heavy rain with gales arriving by 10 pm approx………(I predicted northerlies on 15th in my forecast…)
17th Dry day, much pleasanter warm temps with sunshine spells
18th Nice sunny summer’s day, occasional cloudy spells, very warm temps, some breeziness.
19th Cloud with a few sun spells very breezy and temps ave to summer warmth The wet front avoided us….haven’t had time to see if it went to the east, though the TV forecast did point to mists and muggy trends to some regions.

The overview for this phase was reasonably accurate though the heavier rainy conditions that arrived on 15-16th were overnight so didn’t cause problems for daytime activity. Summer warmth set gardens growing fast and furiously.

 

Spring ends at the solstice on 20th and we hopefully can move into better weather conditions for the summer  season ahead:-)

Hopefully my summer forecasts should be back to my expected accuracy……