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Summer 2015 Part Two, W Yorks and Yonder

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UllswaterSummer Weather Part Two 2015 AUGUST 2015

The following weather forecasts proved very challenging as the atmosphere remains unsettled due to
so much going on celestially and affecting the atmosphere surrounding planet earth. Do take time to
read my Aug 29th -Sept forecast where I draw from a 19th century successful and much respected British weather forecaster named Saxby whose book you can download FOR FREE here:-

 

https://books.google.com/books?id=oQoFAAAAQAAJ

For those wanting a look at how well forecasting  weather long range using ancient earth satellite technology is, please do visit  my other blog at http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com

which  used to report on the outcomes of weather to give an idea of how accurate my long range forecast was.

 

ButterflyJuly 31st-7th August 2015

It took a while to study the charts for this phase due to so much going on and echoing previous years of seismic outcomes, which need a lot of research and cross checking.
Firstly there are seismic factors operative which I haven’t timed or located precisely, because my main focus has to be the weather with limited time available, rather than EQ or extreme weather in other parts of the globe to ours. However, I can say I expect an EQ to west UK regions, Blackpool area, as well as/or instead of Tectonic plates in Irish sea which often tremors across to southern Brit shores.
I also firmly expect EQ to SW China, in early August, centring a few tens of kilometres east of where
one struck Yunnam region in 2013, this may arrive later, around 10th, when a lot of disturbance rocks
things up. Taiwan also looks vulnerable too, as well as NE of New Zealand in the southern hemisphere,
However, back to the weather and this phase is a very unsettled one with so much going on up in the
heavens, so don’t expect a smooth ride weather wise, I certainly won’t be booking days away.
Some very bad weather is tempered by some good weather trying to control it, and as they battle with
each other we will end up with some good some bad…. From the outset a slow moving system is
moving in with some gloomy outlook at times, but don’t worry it wont be allowed to rain on your parade
for long…..but we can expect some thunder, lightening and hail and sporadic hail outbursts to keep
your investment in your umberella worth the buying of it…

The warmth will be more due to cloud keeping temps from being too cool mostly fair to north unless
otherwise specified.

easedaleHere is a quick tour 31st July-7th Aug:-

31st and 1st Very unsettled; isolated hail and sporadic localised showers active during the day, cool and some clear skies by early to late evening, but some humidity and cloud around, with mists to some valleys.

2nd Seismic outbursts likely today. Northerlies active trying to clear away the bad weather vibes,
occasionally very gusty as day gets older, some rainy outburst potential early morning before
breakfast. More cloud, rain and mists likely to NW of our region, but it wont stay around all day.

3rd Some isolated showers localised, so not widespread or long lasting. Very unsettled again some
occasional sun spells but not reliable for the great outdoors during the day, the evenings will generally
be better.

4th An improvement today on former days for our region with some calmer conditions along with more
sun and settled weather.

5th Showers around sunrise more cloud around with more showery outcomes likely to NW than we get
here.

6th Some cloud here and more windy than yesterday, but occasional sun outbursts, cloudier to the
north however, and fairer to southern regions with temps rising on previous days, but this could result in some thundery outbursts during daytime for some localities.
Matterdale church7th-14th August
This phase sees mists and mizzles to the west regions of Britain for 7th-8th. The weather continues to remain unsettled until 10th when static is high and headlines could be about the EQ I mentioned earlier. Days after 10th is when weather calms down a bit and slowly takes bad outburst to the east of us. Some thundery spells likely for first few days but some areas will not get the rain that threatens to accompany them in sudden showery bursts for some localities in our region.

We don’t revisit the highs of July just yet, but this will change later in the month ……………temps will try
to rise but be thwarted by cool northerlies at times and some sudden showery stuff bringing in some
cooling, though precipitation will not be heavy. Temps look set to be cooler than July’s highs, but with rising trends over first half of the phase.

7th Some northerlies around keeping things cool, mists/mizzles to West Brit, mists could also lie in valleys Addingham, Ilkley etc. Some showery outbursts likely around 6-9am moving around different localities.
Cloud competes with sun spells during the day.

8th-9th Shows some annoying showery intermittent spells from mid-day 8th-mid-day 9th keeping
things cool and some thundery outbursts could also threaten to spoil play, some localities wont get the
rain just the thunder. Restless weather continues but by 9th we could see more sun between clouds
instead of behind them with warmth from the sun wrestling with cool spells.

10th Remains variable breezy/windy/gusty NW around, especially on high land, these will blow gloomy
clouds away so that later in the day we will see a more settled outcome arriving with cool drier air
conditions remaining over next few days with more sun around but on 11th rainy/showery outbursts
expected around 6-8pm. 12th should be a normal summer day but still some breeziness around. 13th
could revisit thundery or static outbursts on high ground to the NW regions, trickling over to W Yorks
and yonder (overnight into 14th) and sudden mini squalls could spoil sea going activities also, usually
this trend also sees some blue skies as well so I don’t expect much cloud to linger but sudden cool
conditions can catch you off guard if outdoors.
Preying at Ullswater14th-22nd August

There are drought indicators from now on but also some indications of precipitation which I don’t expect to be heavy or prolonged, or even useful for filling up lakes, reservoirs or rivers, which do look sadly quite depleted nowadays, probably due to high abstraction levels, which does leave a worrying trend for landscapes dependent upon higher levels.

There seems to be a low blocking an Azores high sadly, so I don’t expect glorious high temps, unless
you are holidaying in the Azores which looks quite sultry. The low runs across NW Scotland also
reaching Cork regions of Ireland bringing some showery stuff into play as well as intermittent drizzly bits
with a few expected reports of hail as well.

Some t/storms also expected during this phase, —–yet again…this is the year for t/storms folks, enjoy
the weather drama! I will watch for headlines around buildings being damaged due to lightening strikes
in our region, and to high pylons or electricity systems W Yorks and Yonder…hopefully I’m
wrong……Happily I don’t expect a lot of heavy precip. to arrive with it, and most will arrive overnight or
late evening, but from the outset it does look like gusty sometimes strong windy conditions flail around
from the NW for a few more days, annoyingly, as it will keep off any benefit of higher temps from
sunshine outbreaks. This phase reminds us of 16th July phase when rain and overnight t/storms didn’t
stop play but did keep you on your toes, or under your cagoule for half an hour or so, if outdoors walking
the fells.

14th Should be a good day outdoors overall, but some hail potential intermittent and short lived, but
being blown around by some blustery weather, in between it will but mostly sunny and fair weather,
apart from those cool windy bits that occasionally gust around on exposed places where they will rev
up a little to strong and speedy, so take your ear muffs if mountain climbing….

15th The winds still active with cooler temps but should be a dry outdoor day with sunshine around.

16-17th rising temps could create a bit of static that creates thundery threats, mostly overnight, some
sultry conditions around followed by quick dashing about showery stuff just after mid day, and sun
with cloud, but bright weather expected for daytime activity and once any showery stuff quickly
moves on. Cloudier to northern parts, fairer to southern ones, 17th brighter than 16th. These two days
look to be the warmest for this phase.

18th-19th some showery outbursts again, spartan and intermittent with gusty westerlies veering
around on 19th. Again the showery stuff looks to arrive after lunch, but wont be too heavy and will
leave brighter conditions once they pass over, could be quick sleet or hurting hail showers.

20th Gusty and variable N.Westerly winds expected to be lively again but bright weather around during
daytime.

21st Some cloud developing today between sunny spells, the evening is clearer and brighter skies
prevail until more showery threats spoil play around 6-9 pm by 22nd the cloud could get thicker but
some warm sultry weather around due to cloud keeping the earth warm overnight.
standing tall22nd -29th August

Mist, mizzles and humidity breaking out from Cornwall up to Wigton areas Cumbria and over towards NE Scotland with highs coming over from Azores to west of that line of weather, with expectation of warmer trends moving down S Eastwards as days progress, culminating in a lovely summer day by 26th.

What else did you want to know?

22nd-29th can bring in some cloud spells with 27th-29th being mild and fair weather but again with mists expected in valleys and over watering places. Generally that’s all that’s required to cover what
should be finer weather generally for us to enjoy for this phase, any thundery outbursts on 23rd would
only serve to freshen the air and will be short lived but cracking around 6-10pm
Leverswater Coppermine29th August to 5th September

Last 3 phase charts proved really tricky due to so many things going on weather wise and needing detailed tracking to pull out weather for W Yorks and Yonder. However, here goes with an added advantage of lessons learned from a man called Saxby ( 19th century weather forecaster) who, pre expensively funded met office, delivered trusted, relied upon long range weather forecasts using lunar phases and a priori knowledge of the use of these by Kepler etc. Farmers would circulate these forecasts as would mariners who knew as a result when to avoid storms on days singled out by Saxby.

Saxby found that at times of New Moon perigee and either equatorial or at highest point in the sky in
the north or south hemisphere, cyclones would form to the east of Trinidad and then travel to Britain 9
days later (7th Sept in this instance 2015) creating many sea and other disturbances 3-4 days after perigee, which is on 30th in this instance. And so although the Moon on 29th August is Full, rather than Saxby’s preferred NM, I take it too to be a cyclone breeder due to being FM 29th, perigee on 30th and on equator travelling North on 31st, heralding a big storm coming over to Britain.

Interestingly the charts I use for forecasting with, mapping celestial events with terrestrial locations,
show that on 29th nearby Trinidad Pluto Squares Uranus (with a very wide orb or distance), indicating weather is being brewed in that region, as Saxby would warn at a New Moon in his developing forecasting system.

Saxby tells us that dangers to shipping would pass N W of GB at a NM, and we can see, that in the Full
Moon chart Saturn is semi square Pluto at a point to NW of Scotland, about 50 degrees North latitude,
20 deg longitude, heralding some stormy weather brewing out to sea in NW Scotland, and creating bad
weather for sailors in that region for this phase from 29th onwards. This system will travel inland bringing some turbulence with it and travel to SE Scotland and perhaps the North Eng taking 4+ days to travel over from point of brewing at sea to N Eng, after 29th. It will be interesting to track and verify this at the end of August.

Meanwhile in W Yorks and Yonder (and in the Lakes) the Full Moon usually indicates clearer skies after sunset to sunrise, which is good news for campers wanting to stay dry overnight! Here are the outcomes I expect for this phase:-

29th Warming trends but unsettled weather. Sporadic variable showers, heavy for some further west,
localised and not long lasting around 4-6pm, cool breezes blowing on exposed areas and mists and
mizzles around in valleys and near watery places such as bogs and wetlands on fells and moors.

30th More early mists and mizzles as sun rise with some precipitous weather mid morning but should
leave a drier afternoon with some sunshine and warmth-should be a good day.

31st Unsettled again- some cloud around with some shower attempts aroun7-9, this is the day when
NW Scotland sees rough weather out to sea, , but here we will see some sunshine with warmth.

1st Mists, sun, cloud, hazes, unexpected localised hail outbursts, all in the weather mix, depending
where you are in W Yorks, the warmth will breed showery outburst for many around 4-6pm. By 9pm
mists will be forming to valleys and watery places. Some blustery south easterlies today and tomorrow.

2nd Rain clouds forming further west herald intermittent but refreshing quick showery outbursts in the morning, sun but with cloud around mostly during the day and evening, higher rainfall expected further west…lakes area….

3rd Some gusty breezes blowing clouds away so sun can break through and temps should be better
today with more sunshine to enjoy.

4th secondary sea disturbances warned by Saxby for today, so watch sea forecast, squally sea going,
and in some valleys. Weather could develop as sticky, static and clammy with N Westerlies strong at
times on high ground—Lakes and Pennines and moors and fells which foil temps rising as high as we
would like, but sunshine will be out there between some cloud hanging around, and showery outburst
7-9 am likely, but clearing as day progresses to blue overnight skies.

5th Generally sunny with temps warming but I’m not ruling out a quick shower between 3-5 pm, some
gusty breezes and winds around keeping things cool.

6th A clear start with sunshine and warmer trends. Rainfall expected to travel east today and be heavy
to the east of W Yorks than any that might threaten these parts. Read 6th for next phase to get a
clearer picture……………

 

Bowness Gala 20145th-13th September

A quick tour of the highlights for this phase. Sunshine won’t be absent; prolonged sunnydays not on offer, cloud will quickly form then move on to be rapidly replaced with other cloud that on occasions will block out the brightness of the sun. The trend is for static conditions mostly.

Thunderstorms are likely to break out again, and they will be cracking and a wonderful spectacle. Days
singled out are 8th overnight, when strong gusty winds whip around (keep your tent pegs well
hammered, and don’t forget the gyre ropes and moor your boat safely) and t/storm again 12th at late
pm to evening time but again overnight so migrating t/storms around Britain likely to provide
excitement.

The northern lights will provide more spectacles that are fascinating to watch once skies clear up.
We can expect much wind around sometimes quite strong and keeping things cool, causing those sea
problems due to the cyclone activity mentioned earlier, these should subside greatly by 10th.
Rain will be heavier to southern England/E Anglia as with earlier rain that delivered one months precip
in one day on Friday 24th July. 11th looks likely candidate for rainy weather to travel up England and
beyond.

12th looks cool but clearer skies and sunshine but not a lot of warmth, unless you stay sheltered, 6th
gives the best of the warmth which afterwards begins to wane.

The 9th-12th are better weatherwise, but13th seems the most likely candidate for a better sunny day
and good outdoor weather…..but read on….

glriousviewastrometeorology13th-21st September

During this phase we move towards the equinox on 23rd September, with 13th being a solar eclipse, but a few emerging factors celestially are revving things up across the globe and Pakistan and surrounding countries look to be on the receiving end of the worst they can bring this time of year.

We look gloomy this end of the globe here is a quick un-detailed tour which isn’t very optimistic it looks
likely fogs and mists and sea frets are further over to the East, but some fogs around major routes in our
area, to upset travel at this stage generally. Temps are on the cool side too.

13th is cloudy gloomy with easterlies bring in some gloom with a fast moving rainy mass far west
coming our way falling from before sunrise on 14th and I’m not sure it wont stay around, but things will
remain unsettled until 15th when easterlies veer westwards clearing the gloominess and leaving a way
towards drier conditions with blue skies and woolly clouds.

16th rain over to the west is causing problems to travel there we get sunshine and cloud with the rain
arriving again in the evening around 4 pm for a couple of hours.

17th cloudy start with mists likely clearing at sunrise humidity prevails but some brightness and sunny
spells from after sunrise could stay around during the day.

18th Highly unsettled and this is the day Pakistan and regions will encounter the worst of the flooding
monsoon levels. Here it will vacillate between sun and cloud but don’t expect a great outdoor
experience.

19th I expect rain to fall from 1am onwards leaving it wet and muggy for the morning dash, with
perhaps fogs and mists to contend with.

20th looks clearer and more settled. Warmer in Aus, than here, and it’s their Spring breaking out! Today
should bring a better day but not anything to write home about.

21st Some showers around, intermittent but very obvious around 1-3pm when it will be gloomy…oh
dear, return for the Autumn outlook later

Mayburgh Henge

Mayburgh Henge, sadly only one standing stone remains, finders not keepers please put them back! They belong to all of us.

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