UK Weatherbrief, W.Yorks N Yonder

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AUTUMN 2015 Long Range Weather West Yorks N Yonder

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Autumn Weather 2015.

Using satellite technology, all astro mets are able to see further ahead than traditional met methods allow, and use ancient satellite technology tried and tested for thousands of years.

I forecast for W Yorks N Yonder to make sure I can monitor my success rate as met forecasts often are different to what the outcome is.

Because micro weather patterns often circulate, such as mists, mizzles to valleys as Addingham, Ilkley and Otley, while hail and sleet can also travel micro style, as do some static showers, it takes too long to track them and would make the weather report too unwieldy to read, so if the forecast is for dry but over the road from you there is a shower or mist, this is the reason why.

10th-20th Oct looks stormy with flash floods likely, and Christmas could see high levels of precipitation with threat of floods for the season for some regions.

 

tarneasedale       Sept 21st-28th
Many changes as equinox arrives 23rd September with shifting planetary positions and move to closest perigee Moon 2015, adversely affecting the weather. Flash floods expected to headline to locations 24 east longitude of Britain. Rains will be heavy to East Britain around 26th, with 25th beginning the breeding of stormy outbursts to low lying areas in west regions; Ireland vulnerable to these, but they will travel over our way before moving eastwards. Expect choppy seas growing wilder over coming days with high tides causing probs on coastlines with mists n mizzles more likely to eastern shores.

 

14th-16th September sees more afflictions to East Asia regions such as China, Taiwan/Japan areas.

21st Sun with cloud, temps low to mod for season, some NE breezes, and any rainy outbursts will be further out to western regions of W Yorks.
22nd Clearer skies promising a fair day around sunrise but sporadic showers expected to come in as day progresses, heavier to west. Unsettled by late eve along with localised static outbursts to our region and yonder.
23rd Very unsettled today as the Sun moves into the southern hemisphere, with temps variable but some blue skies around and cool with much colder conditions to high or exposed places such as the Chevin, moors and highlands. Sudden sporadic micro hail or sleet showers can move around but wont be long lasting from 7-8 am and intermittently t/out the day and into next morning.

24th More rainy outbursts expected combined with northerlies trying to clear away the unsettled weather of previous days.

25th -26th Gusty westerlies around with a bright start 25th combining with gusty westerlies, but some stormy outcomes breeding to low lying areas indicating more unsettled weather, with very heavy rains forming flash floods expected further eastwards as referred to above, East Anglia may also see heavy rains. Mists, mizzles fogs and drizzles to eastern Brit generally.
27th A faster moving weather system begins to flow with warmer temps today but mugginess, could be misty start, cloud around and humidity. NE speedy winds arrive today

churchMatterdale28th Sept-4th Oct
Temps begin to climb this phase peaking around 3rd. Expect clearer overnight skies generally, but some mugginess and clouds delivers mists and high humidity with clouds preventing sun shining fully during the day. The East coast of Britain gets the highs of the season, so book now to make the most of what looks like a mini Indian Summer coming in….

Some of the disturbances of previous week still operate and in W Yorks and Yonder there will be still some electrical outbursts with power lines affected, more fires to buildings could be in news.

28th Some warmth but also static outbursts. Winds strong NW with high areas more vulnerable to these speedy outbursts.

29th-4th looks likely to have showery outbursts due to rising temps, so humidity is high but rains can be refreshing. Winds die out after 30th.
1st Can be calm, misty, muggy in areas such as Addingham, Ilkley and other valleys, but higher ground should show a clearer outlook. A sultrier outcome prevails to southern Britain where mists and mizzles due to higher temps will be found. Around 2–5 am some mists and mizzles with cloud around to many Brit areas, but clearing for a better evening later in the day.
2nd-4th Windy/breezy with clearer skies indicating sunshine and warmth from sun and seasonal highs. Could be some sea disturbances NW Scotland region 1st-2nd so watch out for ocean news if you are a seabird.

cold sunny4th Oct-13th Oct
Unusual Autumnal weather circulating and I had to look further than W Yorks and yonder to see what is going on and how it will break over our region as it travels. no guarantees due to some conflicting patterns making it difficult to see which would prevail.

Some sea disturbances moving around SE Anglia, Kent regions will create hazards for sea goers around 5-7th….but 6th is most likely day for culmination. Fruits and flowers affected by either drought for some regions, and humidity for others mould breeding conditions seem widespread.
Fogs mists and mizzles prevail more to eastern quarters, with some mini thundery showers circulating t/out this phase due to static build up as rising warmth hits falling lows.

4th Scattered showery outburst attempts from 6-10 am, with temps warming mod to high seasonal temps but causing static outbursts of hail and sleet by the evening rush hour.
5th Drier sun with cloud.
6th-7th A lot going on today with semi tropical lows off-shore East Anglia/Kent coastal regions migrating north-eastwards towards northern Midlands and further westwards during next few days. Troubled waters off-shore expected so check seagoing services.
Expect clouds to W Yorks and yonder as this humidity rises north, but fairer outcomes to our region than these southern parts. Further west of us on 6th another system shows some static creeps in around mid day and with an easterly wind/weather pattern we get some muggy atmospherics to contend with Some rain could break out but is more likely in southern GB and western areas.
By 7th Some mini cloudburst expected mostly in valleys where haziness is likely to prevail around watery places. Static, hazy and humid fungal, breeding weather travelling from S E towards NW regions.
8th-9th Cloud, mists mizzly, sultry and still but also foggy breakouts affecting traffic flow by rush hour after work, so visibility not clear. This looks like a damp wet and muggy day with southerly air flows keeping things muggy.
10th cooler temps around with clearer skies trying to break out some gusty breezes or winds helping move clouds away but this could be a day when thundery outbreaks arise, more evident to eastern parts.
11th Rain, sleet clouds and easterlies keeping things overcast, damp conditions if not heavy rain, fogs and mists to coast and inland valleys. It is fairer much further north from 10th-13th and we benefit too fairing better than southern regions, but with news of snow on mountains of Scotland not out of the question.
12th Looks cold overcast, gloomy and bleak with more lightening/ thundery outbursts….clearer better even sunnier outlook by evening around sunset…but read on will double check this…

Grinton ftpath12th-20th Oct
An exceedingly excitable weather phase with violent and intense electrical t/storms with lightening strikes, strong winds and floods expected, causing travel chaos and some damage to transport routes including M 62 and M1 and roads adjoining and city wide. Here is a quick tour rather than a detailed analysis……this is a very spectacular, dramatic and awesome weather phase. Normally a new moon brings rain from evenings into the night and at the outset this is the case, but with such strong celestial combinations it could be overruled and due to so much going on it would take too much space to record every detail of it.

12th-13th sees a taste of stormy outbursts stronger to western extremities i.e. Cornwall, Wales, NW Scotland and centring on Irish Sea. Ireland gets rising temps while mainland GB and W Yorks and yonder gets clearer skies but lower temps and we will hear of hail, sleet even snow to high ground. N Westerlies become strong and powerful during this phase. Winds will be howling around too.

13th-15th fairer days with 13th showing last pitch of rainy outbursts 6-8 am likely to finish off outpourings coming in from 12th with a fairer day to follow. Temps will be cold but skies will be clear and blue but winds will be strong and blustery blowing off your hat. Some quick showery outbursts intermittent, but mostly blue skies in between. 14th should be drier and more reasonable weather although a few scattered showers may break out, but by 15th strong winds continue with rising temps to west and t/storms can cause problems to transport routes.

16th More cracking electrical outbursts and there will be high amounts of speedy rainfall potentially creating floods to routes and places near rivers and lakes. Flash floods more likely further to western areas as we see heavy rain moving eastwards too. For us there should be some warmth and clearing occasionally to bluer skies with sunny spells alternating with sudden hail or sleet. Do prepare for the worst even if the skies seem to promise the best when you set off as these systems are speedy and can catch up with you with little warning.

17th Flood problems still trouble western regions where fogs and mists create low visibility, we may have fairer weather but the NW winds can soon scatter rogue showers around intermittently.
18th Storms still circulating with NW very strong it will be 19th before this drama of cracking static weather passes on leaving some destruction in its wake.

cold moors20th-27th Oct
At last a calm after the stormy outbursts of Autumn of the last few weeks. Some sunshine and good outdoors weather to come.

Temps are cooler but at least accompanied by calmer weather. Frosts likely but we will see some sunshine along the way.
20th-21st Some cloud around but a calmer autumn outlook with sunshine once mists clear, mini sporadic outbursts likely to 21st but this wont spoil outdoor events.

22nd Some gusty spurts around cheeky at times with cold frosts to keep you on your toes.

23rd Could see some precipitation, intermittent by late afternoon, cloud, mists and some unsettled weather but fair weather should prevail during the day.

24th Cold and cutting with gusty NW breezes/winds…this looks hazardous out to seas to Eastern regions. Frosts highly likely to form.

25th Looks like another good days for outdoors with fresh atmosphere, but very cold, though exhilarating. Some NW to nip your exposed extremities too.

26th Sporadic hail and sleet showery stuff around with gusty breezes turning windy and keeping things cold feeling wintery. Frosts also likely.
27th Very strong windy weather today likely to turn into gales to NW and on high ground..

High Force227th Oct-3rd Nov
Strong winds and gales continue for the first two days of this phase, blustery weather as temps decline steadily. This is when we glimpse winter ahead.
Clearer skies at night allow temps to fall but this will please sky gazers.
It will be mountains, Pennines and moors that get the worst of some of the blasts blowing over with snow likely on very high ground.

27th-28th Very strong winds around with sudden spurts of speedy velocity, cold and cutting. Winds bring some rain on its wings and by 28th snow on high ground is expected, along with some sleet and strong NW Frost expect late night 28th. Cold, sunshine and cloud and windy weather for these two days with exhilarating fresh air to take your breath away.
29th Still windy but not as wild as previous days. Sunshine after a frosty start some roads could be icy. It seems too cold to allow rain to fall, but beyond W Yorks, to far west may have some outpourings today
30th The day seems sunny with cloud around, could be some freezing mists around valleys and low lying roads near watery areas.
31st Temps peak to coldest but a very bright sunny day expected.
1st-3rd Breezy conditions which can turn into whippy westerlies, frost around, some sunshine with cloud…..but read on for 3rd.

cold3rd-10th Nov
Indications are of a more settled phase with some gentle showery weather mostly overnight, and coldest temps gradually subsiding as 7th arrives.
3rd Looks to have sunshine and northerlies less active, but still chilly. Rain expected overnight into early 4th, bonfire piles will need to be kept dry if you want a good blaze for bonfire night— a little rain stills a great wind. Cloud and sunshine around for 4th -5th with more cloud expected to cover views of Taurids meteor showers. Cool but dry for 5th.
6th Looks fair by mid day some mists around watery places. Sudden winds spurts or breezy outbursts around today.
7th -10th Temps seasonally milder, with some showery outbursts. Clouds around with sun spells and mists/fogs likely.
11th Brings rain for the evening which will move eastwards overnight.

Leverswater Coppermine11th-19th Nov
We miss the weather dramas to be witnessed globally for this phase.
Temps still on seasonally mod to mild range and some fair days ahead until winds begin to be very lively from 15th.

11th can bring some showery outburst mid morning but this should be a fair day with sunshine.
12th Taurids are lively for sky watchers at night and sudden wind spurts will keep clouds moving to give occasional view of the night sky.
13th Northerlies seem strong today but outlook is for fair with fresh atmosphere after a cloudy night.
14th Rain or showers could miss our region, though some tail ends could be blown in by the wind mid morning. Cool with sunshine likely.
15th Some mists and clouds around but the afternoon should be sunny and fine. Windy outdoors
17th-18th Scattered showers likely, intermittent and sporadic turning to hail and sleet showers by 18th. The winds get extra lively for next few days. The Leonids may be difficult to spot with some cloud around.
19th Continuing windy with sun and clouds but also some showery weather later in the day……read on

broodyUllswater19th-25th Nov
Not a pleasant outlook at all could turn out stormier than the outlook forecast for some isolated regions. News of landslides highly likely. Regions around John O Groats, Dundee, Gloucester, Cornwall, Blackpool, Keswick, Wigton regions look to encounter the worst of this weather and landslides could affect mountains and coastal areas.

Mists and mugginess can prevail with unsettled weather to come. Risk of high levels of rain from mid afternoon 19th creating isolated flash floods and very damp humid atmosphere.. Damp and oppressive weather around, not good for planning outdoor activities.
The 20th is unsettled with rains continuing and shows a little sun, with a lot of cloud also some winds racing around taking heavy rains eastwards. 22nd will see mini whirlwinds to some localities.
Excess cloud around and temps lowering again after 21st with potential for ice to form. Snow for mountains and Pennines peaks by 23rd when winds get wild and nasty, with cold, frosty outlook for us 23rd/ 24th onwards. 25th Continues the dark, dull gloomy weather with hazes, mists and fogs around and variable winds battling it out in sudden spurts.

frosty25th Nov 2nd Dec
This phase should see an eventual turnaround on previous gloomy wet damp conditions. Temps get much colder and bring frost over, some iciness expected and it looks too cold to rain though some sporadic hail or sleet could affect isolated locales. Weather settles into cold frosty and less agitated by 27th for a few days and by 1st December it is looking very wintery.
Winds turning northerly to clear away the bad and bring in more settled outlook but will be chilly. 25th-29th has clearer calmer weather with sunshine, overnight frosts expected. 30th holds potential for showers around London areas, and 2nd could bring some winter showers to our regions.

3rd-11th December
Weather system flowing in from the East could be making headlines, as it did 13th 14th August when heavy rains came over from Spain and beyond. Some static conditions mean we can expect a few sleet and hail outbursts for this phase. Flash floods expected to cause problems to the western areas the general trend is for very heavy precipitation 3rd-5th causing more flash floods circulating to some southern regions too as with 13th/14th August.
This phase will prove extra stormy for Cork, Lewis and Stornaway with snow for Glencoe expected and a little turbulent for us too.

Some precipitation potential lingers to the west threatening to travel here to dampen our parade early morning on 3rd but we should see some sunshine breaking out in the afternoon with clearer skies by eve.
4th brings in some invigorating trends with blue skies and sunshine but winter temps leave an intense chill.
5th A little unsettled today and a mix of precipitation potential so winter outbursts likely with snow, sleet and hail in the mix, and some nippy breeziness to contend with.
6th Onwards continues chilly but less likelihood of showery outbursts, although 7th could see winter outbursts to eastern parts after sunrise. 8th sees northerlies active while 9th and 10th is cold but with sunshine around and some blue skies mid afternoon could bring some winter outburst around mid afternoon both days some sleet and snow expected.
11th Is when static brings down more cutting rain, hail, sleet and snow

The last three days will see likelihood of higher levels of winter showers crossing Gloucester, John o Groat’s regions.

Malham astrometeorology11th-18th Dec
Gusty wind patterns for this phase but these can send clouds scurrying along and help dry out any winter precipitation.
11th sees some strong hail and sleet showers with gusts of NW. Air travel could be disrupted around these days, especially for those going to Iceland to see Santa, make sure your travel is insured. Disruptive weather mid Atlantic will interfere with journeys crossing them. Mists and fogs potential for early morning today and 12th, with some regions of UK seeing snow and sleet attempts.

13th-16th NW gusty weather, some haze, mist and cloud but with temps on the seasonally mod to mild side these won’t be freezing mists. Some showery outbursts around 8-10 pm on 13th, and evening to sunrise from 14th-15th with sunshine and cloud during the day. 16th continues the scattered showers theme but these will not be long lasting, though will cause mists to valleys.
17th Cloudy and misty start looks likely to be more cloud than sun today, Rain could be heavy over to far west regions
18th Doesn’t look healthy….read on

wintertreetopsastrometeorology18th-25th December
Temps move towards very cold and wintery, turning to frosty by the last few days, with some bleak weather around for Christmas shopping.
The West coastal regions get covered in fogs mists and mizzles around the winter solstice on 22nd this year when the sun i giving Australia a dose of summer, and bringing us an awareness of how gloomy winter can be.

18th Winds with rain, scattered showery outlook rain could be heavy and NE Scotland looks likely to feel the heavy rains expected, some flash floods likely, but W Yorks seems to avoid these as fast moving weather systems move up from the south.
19th Cold temps with southerly systems active. Could turn frosty and snow to high ground highly evident. Air will be crisp and light snow, sleet and wintery outbursts continue from yesterday, some sunshine with cloud gathering gloomy during the day.
20th Could be muggy with some gusty weather at times very cold outlook but sun with cloud mid day, cloud more likely to northern parts and some of W Yorks, fairer weather to south.
21st Strong winds, spasmodically gusty and speedy at times look set to strike today and looks like blizzards herald the solstice. I expect hail, sleet and snow storms to develop as unsettled weather breaks out for 21st-22nd. Freezing fogs and mists develop to western coastal regions with some tidal traffic upsets due to low visibility/choppy seas. Expect transport routes to be affected, air travel included. Some fairer outlook trying to break out by pm on 22nd, but it will develop icily on high terrain by evening and overnight. Bleak weather for these two days.
23rd Outlook gloomy at times. Colder but less wild, sunshine with cloud by mid day with some northerlies trying to battle away the S Easterlies.
24th Fairer start and sunshine looks likely to prevail with occasional gusty breezes/winds fair to mod in strength, but some mists are likely, also some winter showers coming over W Yorks after mid day. This system is travelling eastwards on a very cold day and will affect eastern regions by 25th.
25th Happily the Northerlies are active today and these always clear away the bad weather–eventually. Wintery showers could greet the day around sunrise.
Full Moon Christmas Day indicates cold, frosty weather in winter. Mists break out, with some drizzles and mizzles to lowlands from Devon to East coast of Yorkshire.
The next few days will be very settled for W Yorks with clear evening skies but lots of frost around. However, the SE regions i.e East Anglia don’t seem to fare so well and some localised flash flooding may cause problems there and other southern regions, heavy precipitation expected.

I don’t see snow for us on 25th, but Boxing Day does show frost, potentially snowfall or sleet and hail by late evening, depending on how high your location is.

New Years day looks a better bet weather wise with a fair outlook for those going to the races.

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