FEEDBACK 28th May-19th June W Yorks and Yonder

FEEDBACK 28th May-4th June
The overview for this phase was quite accurate with hot temps from previous phase staying around with fair weather till 29th-30th for us but t/storms, as forecast, hit the southern regions with floods around the M25 orbital and beyond. The 30th sustained the highs for us but by 1 30pm a brief visit from a rain shower began to release static that had accumulated, and by 9 30 pm torrential conditions began to reign ( if you pardon the pun) continuing into the momrning of 31st which became a cooler and rainy day.
1st was a grey day with some occasional spray in the morning but remaining dry for the most part, so a reasonably good forecast.
2nd grey again but dry with brightness around, some haze and mists to high ground at Otley and Baildon and other high areas so reasonable forecast for this day
3rd Rained all day so Neptune brought prolonged mizzles and drizzles beyond the station position of 2nd, and the Jubilee Pageant on the Thames challenged the British bulldog talent for

enduring the weather assaults.
4th a Lovely sunny day mostly and dry even though spits and spots of rain broke out now and again!

Feedback 4th June-11th

Certainly the 4th was a reasonable evening for a BBQ session, as everyone enjoyed the Jubilee concert and picnics in the park, along with the lighting of the beacons, but the one on Otley Chevin seemed to have suffer exposure to more rainy spells than we got, and the 5th and 6th were dry evenings with some bright skies to our region anyway, tell me if you were in Bingley or Keighley and beyond and got different weather?
SADLY the Venus Sun conjunction started to remind us of the power of the planets to bring a repeat of the 2004 effect and weather warnings began pouring out of the met office as monsoon proportions of rain spoiled events, activities and outings throughout the UK. Fortunately we were spared the extremes locally but my forecast did go pear shaped for the second part of this phase.
5th wasn’t as hot as I expected and showery outbreaks brought in unsettled conditions by 6th the day of the Venus Sun conjunction, and 7th saw windy weather with heavy rain for most of the day.

8th saw recreational pathways flooded with puddles left by the downpour around here and

9th saw full cloud cover of the sky with no sun breaking out until 1 30 and a hail shower by 2.10pm that was quite heavy, so not a good outdoor day at all.
The 10th was spectacular as a sunny day for many parts of the W Yorks region but interrupted by late afternoon/evening with torrential rains. Travelling down from N Yorks leaving behind some lovely sunny spells today, motorists were suddenly confronted by literal monsoon conditions that brought floods to country lanes around the Ouse area, as well as rivers running on main roads as drivers struggled in poor visibility to battle the strength of sheets of water covering their windscreens and bringing in dangerous driving conditions. As usual some localities escaped the worst of this moving down from Harrogate to Poole, but at Poole and Otley some micros brought in pockets of heavy rain whilst pockets of good weather were experienced either side of them!!

Poor Wales got the worst of the bulk of the downpour this time around with Ceredigion floodings and then people in Pennal Wales, worried about a crack in a quarry dam wall that forced people to move out of their homes too, as rain pelted down threatening to deluge homes there on 10th.

An eventful weather week and I wasn’t surprised that we got a similar result to the 2004 Venus Sun transit in the UK, but the 10th reminded me, as I drove through alternating monsoons and clear weather within the space of only 20 miles from York to Leeds, of how difficult it is to forecast for localities due to our micro climate. Even the BBC news around 6 pm warned only of bad conditions to the NE of England, and little mention on the news of the appalling conditions in N Yorks, and apparently Swillington got flooded, but it is a flood prone area of the city…..

No wonder we always talk about the weather as a national occupation as there is always plenty it brings our way to shock, amaze or sometimes please us!
Feedback 11th-June-19th
11th was unsettled with some breezes, cool evening no sunshine noticed in my locality but wider afield experienced some better sunshine spells!
12th same as yesterday with sunshine spells arriving to my locality as well as others, no breezes though
13th Cloudy day here but brighter by afternoon some spray by 6 30 pm temps ave to mild for season
14th Warmer temps today windy by eveining and heavy rain by 10pm onwards into early 15th
15thSome sun attempts warmt temps remain showery/rain by 1 45pm
16th Sunshine cloud and widely spaced intervals of heavy rain with gales arriving by 10 pm approx………(I predicted northerlies on 15th in my forecast…)
17th Dry day, much pleasanter warm temps with sunshine spells
18th Nice sunny summer’s day, occasional cloudy spells, very warm temps, some breeziness.
19th Cloud with a few sun spells very breezy and temps ave to summer warmth The wet front avoided us….haven’t had time to see if it went to the east, though the TV forecast did point to mists and muggy trends to some regions.

The overview for this phase was reasonably accurate though the heavier rainy conditions that arrived on 15-16th were overnight so didn’t cause problems for daytime activity. Summer warmth set gardens growing fast and furiously.

 

Spring ends at the solstice on 20th and we hopefully can move into better weather conditions for the summer  season ahead:-)

Hopefully my summer forecasts should be back to my expected accuracy……

Weather Forecast 28th May-19th June 2012 W Yorks and Yonder

       

28th May-4th June
 Windy, cold but drier phase but t/storms could break out to some regions, west looks likely area. Short spells of showery outbreaks interrupt dry sunny weather.

28th Sun with cloud and cold temps mists and mizzles near watery places in valleys but any poor weather is moving fast so shouldn’t stay around to spoil things too much. Some sunshine expected during the day. Any static outbursts will soon be over.
29th Today is hard to convey as conditions forecast isolated and heavy downpours for some localities. This is a day when you set off to Otley/Bolton Abbey etc from Horsforth/Yeadon in fine weather only to find you end up in a downpour, then get back home to find it was a lovely day  and you missed out on the good weather!! Some sunshine and blue sky expected but cloudier evening. Temps moderate though cooler in localities where rain falls.
30th A fairer day average temps with cold pockets in shade, ground may be wet but gusty wins should be drying things out.
31st Could be a shower after midnight but sunnier by sunrise with whippy westerlies lashing your face in exposed areas.
1st More muggy trends southerly breezes keep things getting too cool but brining in cloudiness. Scattered showery conditions but sunny as fast moving cloud travels over.
2nd Watery Neptune stations today but seems to be bringing mists mizzles and haziness to western regions beyond ours. Mod temps with some scattered showery spells but some sunshiny bits as well
3-4th Gusty easterlies arrive for three days sustaining a static outlook and more showery outbreaks. Showery late 3rd and into early 4th. Sun with cloud for 4th which looks like a better day

4th June-11th
A FINE WEATHER WEEK HURRAH! VENUS SUN conjunction.

GET OUT THE BBQ! I’m booking away days for this phase which looks like the best of the weather for us for Spring so far. When looking at these charts I always have an eye on the best weeks to book away days and so far have felt that no week looked good enough to guarantee long lasting warmth and less humidity and consistent good conditions. This week ticks all the boxes. A Full Moon usually brings good evenings with fine skies that sees everyone heading for bistro or bar by the river or canal and this week should be no exception. For many days to come it looks like flaming June lives up to its reputation………………..( Quick note and update:-  remember I wrote these forecasts and published them early Jan-Feb but happily the hot sunshine arrived earlier than forecasted, and luckily I managed to getaway to enjoy it, hopefully this forecast will also turn out sunnier than expected)
Some exciting astronomical event for this week will hit the headlines and it will be Venus retrograding over the Sun in the sky which you may recall also occurred in 2004. For us this is extra special as it combines with a sensitive position in one of the charts I use for forecasting temperatures, and augurs a high for our region especially.

2004 saw many floods for the Yorkshire region but a staggeringly dramatic flood for Boscastle by August 16th, in the west peninsular which I had only visited a few weeks before the landslides and huge torrents of water ravaged the tiny village. I’m watching events following this years Venus Sun conjunction on 6th June.

4th Cool but sunny, some easterlies still hovering, but the worst of the mists and mizzles look to be near Dundee, Carmarthen, Lewis and Cork areas not ours.
5th A hot day and some great weather in following days it is only once we get to 10th that some mists and haze or even precipitation around 12-2pm can break up the nice weather.
11th brings in some gusty NW but temps rising high so we’ll see what is coming up for the next phase….read on….

4th June-19th

This week continues the good weather trends and summer really settles into some lovely temps and dry weather with some high ozone coming over with blue skies and heady outlook for some fine days. Some gusty winds and breeziness but I doubt they will spoil the outdoor activity and although some scattered spray and showers can be released by the static conditions created by the highs I doubt they will spoil outdoor activity until later in the phase.

11th Slightly unsettled atmosphere can lead to some scattered showers around, some gusty cold NW around but also some blue skies with wool packed clouds temps increasingly warmer as the day progresses
2nd same as yesterday with some gusty westerlies keeping things lively a slight cooling till sun gains strength at mid day
13th Wholesome outdoor conditions along with some easterly flows, some cloud around but higher temp range expected today
14th Temps remain higher range scattered showers over as soon as they begin and quite refreshing
15th -16th weather of previous days should continue with some northerlies around on 15th
17th Brings a high with rising temps and high ozone and some blue sky expected but some warning of a scattered showery outlook after sunrise along with gusty westerlies from today could be some mistiness around near water and in valleys due to higher temps over previous days.
18th Some more cloud around and breezy conditions continue, strong at times
19th A very wet front seems likely to pass over to the eastern parts and could be prolonged precipitation that creates mists and fogs as it travels. High levels of precip expected and the high temps can be a little muggy today, but who cares….summer is clearly on the way and we have just been reminded of that in the previous days…..

 

Enjoy the weather whatever it may be and wherever you are

FEEDBACK 20th May -28th

FEEDBACK 20th May -28th
20th No showers for us it was mostly dry and sunny by mid day with ave to cool temps.
21st Overcast but dry no breeze with sunshine out late afternoon and evening
22–28th and continuing…..FABULOUS GLORIOUS WEATHER, blue skies with temps rising to highs earlier than I forecast for 28th for many regions of UK……..yes some mists around from 23rd and strong breezy to windy for some areas by 24/25th but generally with none of the cold hail outburst I had forecast, thank goodness.

Well that was easy, and so glad the weather turned out better than I forecast HURRAH!  Hope you managed to enjoy it as much as I did after all those early May forecasts in the press warning of the coldest May for over 100 years…..at least I wasn’t that wrong….!!

Weather W Yorks and Yonder 13th May-28th

12th-20th May

Sometimes you come across configurations that just defy interpretation and I have to confess to being nearly beaten into submission by this quarter moon chart! So many conflicting messages and some of which are new in my experience of looking at charts for the past nine years.
Usually a 3/4 Moon can bring a stormy outlook and this one could be no exception, but whether it hits the W Yorks region is the real issue in my forecasting.
First of all there are many indications of some fine hot weather for this phase, but then again Saturn is casting a glance that seems to break that fine weather showing some gloominess and cloud, spoiling the fine front that otherwise would rule for every day.
On previous occasions the chart display I am looking at has brought  one half of high temps and the other half with lower temps, some charts such as in 1st June 2011 brought 1 whole months precipitation to the SE region in 1 day!
2nd December 2009 Severn and Gloucestershire also had floods just prior to the 2nd Dec chart began to be relevant. I can’t see that much rain falling for us this phase, and I do expect some highs, but I don’t rule out some heavy rainfall to some parts of the UK and I think this will be to the western regions perhaps Cumbria or Wales. There will be a t/storm outbreak but again I found this difficult to time or locate, it may not happen in our region.

There will be some mists and haze around as well but the winds are strong at times and any cloud around will not be left to linger long, and mostly I expect some blue skies with some wool packed cloud.

An overview shows low pressure to the south which means the worst of the weather centres down south and the better weather is to the north…

12th as previously described with some occasional gusty NW
13th looks like the hot spot with temps high and a lovely sunny day expected. famous last words perhaps…..some whippy westerlies occasionally gusty and strong from today turning southerly by evening auguring some warmth but also some muggy conditions even mistiness to some parts
14th Temps stay high  but it could be a little muggy with easterlies around by late evening. Today is a seismic day so will be watching out for major earthquake to be reported…usually 300 a day around the globe but have you noticed only a few make it to the media.
15th If any rain does arrive then late evening looks like a fairly safe bet after 9pm. Westerlies get gustier and more erratic today for the next three days It does seem as if some high pressure helps us remain dry in our region, but I could be wrong about this, there will be some cloud around.
16th looks fine with some winds as described would continue from yesterday
17th around 9 am another scattered showery outbreak could keep everyone alert but generally it seems to remain a fair outlook with wins still active and easterly flows by late evening brining in some muggy trends. Another rain indicator for around 10-11 pm 

18th -20th look drier with temps cooler by 19th and less windy weather, till 20th when some NW come to clear up the confusion and northerlies very strong by late on 20th! Nothing like a northerly for clearing up bad atmospherics! Any rain over these days could be heavier to the east, missing us out completely hopefully but they will provide a fresh atmosphere and even if rain does arrive here it is the kind of rain you like to feel on your face when outdoors.

I shall be watching how this forecast works out very intently and probably wishing I hadn’t continued with the rest of the spring forecast as a result I expect!!

20th May -28th
At first glance I thought this would be a straightforward weather outlook but after reading it the weather turned out to be very busy indeed! This is a phase when normally we could expect nice daytime conditions and any poorer weather to turn up at night but the planets are very active so we can’t take anything for granted just by using one phenomenon alone in forecasting. Here goes, don’t worry I have some lovely weather news for June when you can get the BBQ out and celebrate summer coming in….
20th Expect some sporadic intermittent showery outbreaks at various intervals at start and end of the day especially, hopefully not all day. High humidity and dampness as a disturbed atmospheric outlook prevails. Some sun could break out between cloudiness while the sun is high in the sky. Moderate seasonal temps but rain can lower this to average as it cools the atmosphere
21st Some misty muggy conditions before sunrise but more temperate weather arrives today with temps rising higher than yesterday. Easterlies agree adding to the muggy trend but dryness should prevail.

22nd Some rain around from the morning along with cloudiness and occasional sun spells, but generally fair but windy outlook as day progresses.
23rd Some blue skies around today, moderate to cooler temps range and some clouds also along with some nebulous breeziness.
24th A little breezier than yesterday similar weather to 23rd any rain is expected to come late a night and continue in intervals from early tomorrow.
25th looks like rain arrives in sporadic intervals during today from very early morning and continuing into evening. Lower range temps but high humidity potential for mistiness as well with winds getting stronger
26th Wind is the theme today with gusts whistling around nooks and crannies as cold air brings an abrupt fall in temps and gusty spurts of NW can travel quite speedily at times, especially on exposed areas for the next five days.
27th Cloud muggy start better by mid day but returns by evening which looks like a less volatile weather world. Some sudden outbreaks of static in form of sleet or hail could break up finer spells by evening with temps cooler and skies clearer. Winds strong N Westerlies and gusting to high speed sporadically
28th Temps are set to rise today but winds hand out some cold conditions, some easterlies clash with southerlies and NW, so very blustery air flows. Potential for rain around sunrise, scattered showers likely, but I don’t expect too much precipitation to spoil the day.

 

Spring Weather 30th April-12th May 2012 W Yorks and Yonder

 

29th April-7th May

The theme for this phase is wild and windy, don’t take your sailing boat out, or try flying a kite….good for getting the washing dry or finding all autumn leaves have now been swept away from the garden!
Some unusual weather for this phase with the overtone being wild if not gale force high speed winds causing havoc if not destruction to many UK areas and we will not be able to avoid the centre of this system blowing over.
High humidity is also around with warmth trying to encourage spring plants but causing moisture to rise and break out into cloudbursts. Some mists in valleys due to warmth from sun as well as rising temps but also some sunny weather around to enjoy, though the winds are going to be keeping everyone busy and will not allow much settled  enjoyment of what sunny days do arrive.
Scotland and exposed regions to North England gets hit far more violently than us with the wild and windy stuff will need to watch the headlines, and tornado to SW also needs watching for…

29th Early showery outbreaks as previously mentioned along with some whiplash westerlies creating wild conditions outdoors in exposed regions, but some sunshine as well.
30th Humidity begins to accumulate along with strong winds from yesterday continuing, but also some sunnier spells. Lovely blue skies expected by evening when northerlies are most active keeping things cool.
1st Showery outbreaks potential very early around sunrise, temps should rise today as sun gains height in sky, but westerlies are now kicking in with strong and erratic speeds, occasionally gale force or sometime quite fast. Sunshine with varying cloud levels.
2nd Intermittent sporadic showery conditions likely, temps remain seasonally warm in sunny areas, winds very strong to high speed gales especially overnight tonight and continuing into tomorrow.
3rd Seismic outlook so some news of the larger types of EQ for UK around this date, Heavier outbreaks today some will be rain, hail and even sleet, cutting at times. Conditions could be set to get a little milder but this brings potential for mists. Later in the day this should clear and turn into better weather conditions. Winds strong to high speed gales…a stormy outlook with echoes of the blizzards that hit Doncaster November 2010.I do expect the winds for this phase to create some damage and disruption to normal services.

4th-5th The rain will be moving over to eastern parts, leaving us  with a better outlook and temps rising to warmer ones, but some cold pockets lurking in shady and exposed areas. Should eventually be a good day for photographers with some electric blue skies. Tornado likely +/- 2-3 days today to SW region of UK.

6-7th  6th looks cool with cloud around clashing with warmer temps of previous days. Southerlies turn into strong easterlies by 7th but the worst of the wild and windy conditions look set to be subsiding but there could be some sporadic showery outbreaks, but good outdoor weather begins to break out and some sunshine to enjoy…..Some mistiness could lurk over valleys and near water 6-7th.

The Full Moon on 6th May is in Scorpio and is a very rare one ( a spring tide or Supermoon) as one astronomer  found it culminated within 1 minute of close perigee position, which is a hard record for any previous Full Moon to beat—-read this website for more….http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html

7th May-12th
There is a tendency for temps to try and rise this phase adding to humidity and some potential for static to build.  This is the closest perigee moon of 2012 and being in Scorpio can bring some extreme conditions affecting some regions of the globe. I haven’t taken time out to look at and locate many EQ for this Spring, though my winter forecasts are working very well as I write this in February when my forecast for an EQ In France has come true.
Coolness added to humidity, as summer tries to break through, will breed the static atmosphere which may create some muggy cloudy or misty conditions at the start of the phase. I’m just hoping I’ve balanced the timing and arrival of rising temps with other indications for cold dull weather, combined with some fine conditions trying to pass over our way as well for this phase. It’s such a shame Mercury keeps playing with Saturn as these two cause the duller conditions that interrupt some of the finer weather that otherwise would prevail for this phase, but there will be warmth from the sun its shady areas that keep hold of icy pockets. This kind of weather is when moisture rising in response to heat from the sun creates haziness.
7th Any showery outbreaks arrive early morning some cooler conditions compared to previous days with easterlies producing a little dullness. The Moon in Sagittarius can also bring some sun into play so lets hope there is some around between cloudiness that looks set to develop mid afternoon,  the evenings look clearer. Temps rise today and should reach above average with icy pockets left to shady areas.

8th Cold overnight and before sunrise with cloud around or dullness. Showery potential around sunrise, but hopefully some clue sky to come,  occasional lively and gusty N Westerlies, lower temps mingling with some warmth from humidity created by rising moisture as sun gets high during daytime, and it should be a fair day with few clouds,  though a Full Moon period often allows better skies at night.
9th -12th  After 9th looks drier. 9th looks to be the wettest day with N Westerlies trying to ward off any poorer weather and blowing clouds away. We could see better weather from later in the day on 9th continuing for the next 3 days with some mistiness around watery areas as temps rise, but cold pockets to shady areas. Winds are less active and some fine sunshine should be around to chase away any gloominess. Some more mists and/or cloudiness and N Westerlies on 12th…the good news is by 13th…it looks especially lovely and sunny and warm…….

Read www.amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is now posted keep coming back to find out

what awaits us in the summer season….go to www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

FEEDBACK 13th-29th April Spring Weather W Yorks and Yonder 2012

FEEDBACK 13th -21stApril

Gales as forecast arrived to south and Bristol Channel 17th as well as mists to that some parts of England by 18th, so the overview for this phase was intact in that respect. Transport problems hit the headlines due to air flights at Heathrow being grounded due to a fire in one of the planes, but also weather warnings Wednesday 18th saw some slow-moving downpours, with hail and thunder. Some surface water flooding lead to difficult driving conditions, while coastal gales still raged at Bristol. Also, roads may be slippery in heavy hail bringing transport problems as forecast.

The mists and fogs I forecast arrived to the south regions by 17th and 18th.

13th Early showers before sunrise an overcast morning but fresh outdoors with some sun spells by 1 30pm. Temps cold, and sporadic light showers late in day and evening….hail showers for us 4pm approx. So my temps forecast not good for today which wasn’t as mild as expected.
14th Dry overcast am fresh nippy temps a little breeze around, with light intermittent showers further to west at Ilkley during the afternoon etc but remaining dry here
15th Sunny start cloudier by mid day chilly breezes keep things cool in sun, hail outbursts mid afternoon
16th Sunny start clouds thicker by mid day breezy but dry day, temps cool. I forecast potential rain for today but it remained dry, we were breezy here rather than windy.
17th Possible early showers, continuing till 10 00 am cloud with sun spells breezy and milder than yesterday but strong windy outbursts by 1 pm with more prolonged sun spells, showery again by 4 30pm with precipitation coming in with the winds which here became very strong almost in a funnel of speedy vortex bringing hail with it 6-7pm. Fogs and mists warning given out for south regions, so this part of my overview was accurate.
18th a Very rainy day from the start!! No sun shine till late pm………but rainy mizzle and drizzle kept breaking out and continuing into 19th giving us two days of wetness and miserable weather, with floods to Pocklington North Yorks for today….
20th Dry, bright but cloudy some short showery outbursts 12 pm Storms were very widespread to south of England today
21st Chilly, breezy sun with cloud at start of day sleet by 11 20 am more sleet hail outbursts in the afternoon, further to west at Ilkley and beyond had very heavy downpours…no electric blue sky day that I forecast sadly! Getting the washing dry wasn’t an option today either….apologies…..

Not a brilliant forecast this phase, with the prolonged rainy spells 18-19th not factored in, as well as sunshine forecasts being way out as well. The overview was very accurate but the daily forecasts for our locality were not reliable.

FEEDBACK 21st-29th April

Thankfully I got back on track by mid week with this weeks forecast, after being wide of the mark for the last phase. I wasn’t surprised at how the 22nd turned into a rainy day contradicting my prediction as this was a phase that activated the earlier Scorpio perigee and I was watching closely so see what the impact would be and I did make it clear I couldn’t be sure whether it would pour it down or not as this was a new situation not encountered for the past ten years. It did rain and quite heavily at intermittent intervals, and just when you thought it would stop and go away it started up again till overnight into 23rd…….no sunshine around at all to shout about….even the ducks look miserable at this stage…..

23rd was dry by breakfast, though ground was swimming and puddly, and the temps were cold, but the sun attempted to break through by afternoon and if you managed to catch it, there was some warmth coming through to remind us of better times. This didn’t last long though and soon after the clouds threatened rain which became heavy by 5 30 pm approx perhaps confirming the 90% rule I told you about New Moon and better weather sunrise to sunset…
24th Sunny blue sky start deteriorated into overcast mid day, but dry, ave temps and very sunny by 4pm…..no conditions for the sun soak I was hoping for, but certainly an improvement on miserable days before….
25th -26th These two days brought prolonged rainy spells at times very heavy the forecast for these two days was pretty accurate….thank goodness….by 7pm on 25th the rain was torrential here and some showers on 26th also brought torrents causing flooding to roads locally. Visibility was poor due to rainy conditions and hilltops were obscured by mistiness of precip.
27th Short showery outbreaks in the morning, but the sky was cloudy, not sunny but the sun was trying to breakthrough by mid day and afternoon, giving us some brightness to sing about….and temps were much milder with some warmth trying to breakthrough. There were some brisk and lively breezy conditions around. The seaside resort to be today was St Anne’s which experienced a lovely sunny day.
28th Overcast and very windy by evening, some hail outbreaks mid morning and mid afternoon, temps cool skies clearer by evening a reasonable forecast for today though not exactly ”fine” it was better than previous days 29th Rain rain and rainageddon….can’t wait for warmageddon to arrive………….

A very disappointing forecast and no I didn’t see this level of consistent rain and near flood levels for W Yorks, so apologies for that…..though the clue was in my forecast that a same chart last

year ended the drought spell bringing in rain and I also warned that I wasn’t sure of how the apogee opposite perigee would manifest for this phase…..

Read http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is now posted keep coming back to find out

what awaits us in the summer season….go to http://www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

Long Range Weather forecast W Yorks and Yonder 14th-30th April 2012-Astro-meteorology

 

13th-21st April
Looks like a warmer and finer phase, mostly dry with some fair but very wild and windy weather, in fact it does look like gales create headlines with comms systems and transport probs arising, and lots of static around which can manifest as mists, clouds or haziness especially to western areas where warmth will prevail, but the southern areas and our east coast also looks likely to get either sea frets or mistiness too. My weather buddy Caroline down south I believe has even put in some mud slides to brighten up the exciting weather for this phase!! UK  Earthquake to SE UK area likely to hit headlines for this phase. I expect temps to get very cold overnight 18th-21st. Some southern regions could get colder blasts than we do.
13th High seasonal temps etc as forecast in previous phase
14th Some cooler temps to yesterday with northerly winds to keep temps lower some clouds but sunshine as well.
15th Clear skies till sunrise when clouds form then clearer by mid day potential for rainy spells 9-11pm. Seasonally average temps today
16th I expect some rain from very early in the morning and potentially around mid day with clouds forming to compete with the Sun. Strong winds expected today keeping temps low to the east but clearer conditions to western parts
  where temps could go higher.
17th Cloudy till mid morning, sunnier middle of day as Sun gets higher, some clouds around and temps average to low with NW wins keeping things cool and spring-like.
18th Icy start 1-2 am, very strong blustery winds, blustery and problematic on high transport routes, could be gale force. Humidity set to rise during mid day as sun gets high.
19th  Cold overnight again, some cloud to greet the day but clearing by mid day. Whiplash westerlies strong at times, keep everyone on their toes.
20th Clearer skies by mid -day again with winds blowing clouds around allowing sun to shine through bringing average to higher seasonal temps,  warding off some cold pockets that still linger in shade or high places. Sporadic gusts to gale force for some exposed regions.
21st I expect baked Alaska conditions today. On the one hand hot on the outside, but icy cool on the inside where the ice cream is!  It is an electric blue sky day…or should be..Very powerful NW winds ruling which keeps temps down in exposed areas, the winds look more wild and windy than ever so not a good day for sailing, parachuting or putting out the washing!

21st-29th April

Dry, windy, warm and wet….and all weather phase then! Let’s see what all the excitement is about. I do expect some hot weather to encourage us to think ”summer” especially from 27th which looks like we should have a day beside the sea….
Normally a New Moon gives clearer conditions sunrise to sunset, but not always, and by looking more intensively at the planets we can see when that might not happen…if we look carefully!
In May last year we ended a long spell of sunshine with some lovely high temps but an awful drought that thwarted gardeners attempts to grow things. This phase has very similar attributes to that one but will I get the forecast right with the infamous perigee Scorpio Moon being aspected by the apogee New Moon in perfect aspect? Will it remain dry or will it pour it down….read on…no promises….
21st Winds still extremely strong and lively if not high speed gales to some regions especially high and exposed regions…see above for more of the forecast for today.

22nd Easterlies clashing with westerlies today and some humidity or cloud or even mists around, but also some sunny skies. A hazy start, dry day some cloud forming by evening and we could see more sunshine in the afternoon. Seismicity strong today.

23rd I have conflicting info for today on the one hand there seems to be some lowering of temps but it does look as if the sun will be strong enough to bring in some warmth after mid day, it could be sporadic cold gusty winds that keep off  the benefit of the heat. Temps should be average to high but some haze and mists outlook for late evening

24th Temps should reach the higher range today bringing a peak for sunshine and heat and I hope I am right that the winds may subside allowing us to enjoy a bit of a  sun soak.

25th Rain likely to arrive after the highs of yesterday looks like some showers late evening and could continue in  sporadic intervals overnight into tomorrow. But daytime weather looks cool but sunny.

26th Cloudy and potentially rainy day with some clearer spells mid day but showery intervals likely and can be heavy at times, It’s the evening when heavier rain looks more likely.
27th Looks hot again and some good clear and sunny conditions look likely to get established for next couple of days. Some cloud morning and evening for 28th but fine during the day though some whiplash westerlies keep everyone on their toes. The NE and SW look like having the best spots for a day beside the sea.
29th could see some quick spartan showery stuff before sunrise; again expect some gusty westerlies.

Read www.amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is now posted keep coming back to find out what awaits us in the summer season….go to www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

FEEDBACK W Yorks and Yonder 1st-13th April 2012

FEEDBACK 31st March-6th April
Very accurate forecast except for sleet I had forwarned you of turning into 1-2 inches of snow to W Yorks for 3rd, but much deeper to North Yorks and beyond. Very heavy snow for high places and Scotland. The windy weather did cause problems as forecast, with power lines coming down in Derbyshire and NE England and beyond, even winds were only 40-50 mph.
4th temps were milder as forecast, and very breezy/windy, but sunshine returned at evening to cheer us all up.
5th was GLORIOUS with blue skies returning along with warmth in sunshine, and it certainly felt tropical in my car with the windows closed….well the dog was panting heavily anyway!
6th A cloudy day but temps milder, some spray attemps during the afternoon
Didn’t notice any mists, but there was a lot of cludiness in the morning.
7th Mild temps prevail some breeziness from day before a mostly cloudy day but dry till late evening when spray attempts were made around 10-11 pm

Feedback 6th-13th April ( see above for first week)

The introduction to this phase gave a good idea of what the theme would be for this week. There was some wild and windy around along with some lovely welcomed April showers. The south bore the brunt of bad weather outcomes with gales hitting Brighton and south + coast regions on 9th with some areas such as Surrey reporting some flooding.

7th Mild temps prevail some breeziness from day before a mostly muggy and cloudy day but dry till late evening when spray attempts were made around 10-11 pm, so my timing for rain was hours out, and didn’t notice if skies were clearer or not late at night.
8th Mild temps again, some fine spray around, patchy and sporadic, byt day remained mostly dry but unsettled, with strong windy outbursts by evening and m more rain attempts, heavier this time by 8-9 pm (a guess at the time as I wasnt watching for this but certainly by 10pm it did look wet outsdie and still raining.
9th was similar to 9th for us as forecast, with more scattered, patchy showers aroundin the morning, turning to light rain at times during the afternon, with skies clearing a little by 7-8pm to alllow lefto
vers of sunshine to break through. Many headlines about the washout for the south where windier and heavier rain spoiled the bank holiday for those on the southern coast, and Surrey one of the aras hit by some flooding.
10th Sunny start with cloud ar ound by mid day and very strong blustery winds. Spray by 11:40 am some sun spells during th afternoon, temps a little nippy with icy winds, more shoery by 7 45 pm
11th Sunny start with some warmth from the sun but this soon turned around with April showers by afternoon and sporadic outburst into the evening., with skies clouding over…
12th Overcast start, no breeze today mild temps but an icy nip in the air outside.
13th Overcast after very early showery outbreaks of April showery stuff. Pleasant atmosphere some sun spells by mid day 1 30pm more sporadic spells of hail and sleet and rain after 4pm, sometimes heavy. Temps seasonally icy

Read http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is now posted keep coming back to find out what awaits us in the summer season….go to http://www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

W Yorks and Yonder Long Range Weather Forecast 31st March-13th April

March 31st-April 6th 

Outlook is for very cold temps to begin with but sunshine to brighten us up, and some warmer temps by 4th helping us look forward to summer. The windy weather continues and I expect reports of a t/storm to some region of the UK.

31st Strong gusty NW, lashing everything it meets, high speed to some regions. Sunny outlook but temps retaining icy pockets, cloud around but clearing as sun grows stronger by mid day. Potential for quick isolated hail outburst late afternoon

1st – 4th April some cloud around with nippy icy pockets, but lots of sunshine to enjoy by mid day. It’s the winds that create problems during these few days, any showery outbreaks icy cold hail or sleet, look set to arrive around midnight
4th Should see temperatures rising a little, wind still strong and gusty, some sunshine with cloud. Temps on high ground expected to drop to lows.
5th Same as 4th but cloudy or misty start and more cloud around in the evening, quick hail/sleet showers by midnight. Temps getting warmer with humidity around producing some warmer almost tropical outpourings to some regions beyond ours. Winds should be less active by today.
6th Sunny, and looks like  the warmest day of all, but some mists and clouds as a result. Some broody easterlies and southerlies warding off the cold pockets of previous days. A misty cloudy start but temps getting much more agreeable as day wears on.

6th-13th April

A similar chart to this one occurred in October 2009 when heavy rain arrived giving floods to Scotland. I do expect t/storms to be reported to some regions of the UK.

Well first of all we have the infamous perigee moon that always brings headlines to read about some major weather induced incident…I hesitate to say disaster as I don’t want to follow global warmers who hog headlines with disaster warnings all the time…since Aristotle’s day as it happens….still on with the weather…

This perigee moon gave a me a headache as earlier in February ( the same week I am writing this I might add) when I fully expected good old Scorpio Moon to bring heavy rain if not flooding, I was humiliated by the total drought that ensued!! Yes I VERY ACCURATELY forecast a weather system coming down from Foroyar which it did, and resulted in a high pressure system that blocked the Moon in Scorpio from delivering the floods I expected….Harrumph.  Iwas so annoyed at not expecting this to happen! So much so, that I hesitated to deliver this spring forecast which I was working on at the time, and felt like throwing in the towel on astro forecasting!
I still might have to if I have to resort to using jargon such as high and low pressure and isobars which is not what I want to do.

In spite of the above, there will be some fine weather to enjoy and evenings for this phase usually bring pleasanter conditions, while there will be some windy weather and some rain around–well it is a perigee moon phase…..but there is also a massive drought indicator as well planet wise…
Oh and if you are laughing at the fact the moon perigee has anything to do with weather….shame really as there are some immaculate studies that show a significant correlation between high precipitation at the time of perigee moons, though of course not all perigees will bring high levels of rainfall.
6th as forecast previously

7th Some mists or cloud around, muggy conditions with easterlies and southerlies active keeping conditions seasonally mild outlook is for rain heavy at times for late afternoon with some clearer skies late evening and overnight

8th Some showery outbreaks 3-5 am, unsettled atmosphere with cloudiness around till later in afternoon, temps cooler than yesterday, some sporadic breeziness southerly and westerly for today and tomorrow.

9th Same as yesterday with some potential for sporadic hail and sleet outbreaks. Sun with cloud during day.

10th-11th Cloudy start but sunnier afternoon and evening, temps cool. 11th looks brighter than 10th

12th Sun with cloud around, temps warming up, some easterly breeziness and clear evening skies good for outdoors and gardening or even a stroll…famous last words!

13th  Sunshiny start and looks like some nice spring temps remind us summer is just around the corner…easterly breezes keep the warmth notched up.

Read amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and the WHOLE OF Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is nearly ready to post to keep coming back to find out what awaits us in the summer

season….go to www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

 

Apologies for the display in this forecast, can’t figure why changes aren’t being made by the edit in wordpress….hopefully it wont affect the weather outlook:-)

FEEDBACK Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder 15th-30th March 2012

Feedback 15th-22nd March
Wet and very windy weather burst out across Scotland and NW regons as forecast for this phase..
16th sunshine with cloud, dry day and very breezy by 6pm, static not released till early next day…
17th rainy very early around daybreak? sunnier pm and a t/storm by 5 pm, not a lot of rainfall as mentioned in the forecast.
18th Sunny day, fluffy cloud but cold temps.no rain here, so this forecast perhaps a day out and should have been recorded for 17th instead, though some rain may have arrived to some localities let me know if it was yours?
19th Yes good forecast with gusting breezy becoming windy weather, cold with sun spells, very unsettled
20th Yes a very accurate forecast some gusty windy spurts but some blue sky with cloud around…note the warning of some temps rising….very accurate as it heralded the warmth of the week that did follow and cheered us all up.
21st and 22nd as forecast except no hail outbreaks noted and some haze around 22nd with the sun.

Feedback 22nd-30th March
This was a drought phase, as forecast and at the start we did have some brisk winds, though these didn’t get strong in our region. Strong breezes broke out most evenings, not strong winds!
Here’s what happened, not too far out but not 100% accurate either…
23rd Sunny day with cloud
24th was thick fog sunny later in the day but haziness lingered the same on 25th as forecast, with nippy temps but some fine skies once fogs had cleared.
26thTemps still nippy but lovely skies with sunshine, these first few days brought fogs and  frostiness overnight rather than the showers I had forecast…..
27th-29th brought some fine weather with temps rising silghtly earlier than I had forecast for 29th
30th Was cloud at the outset but clearer by mid day with sunshine and better skies for the afternoon but temps were cold out of the sun as all week really, and if you thought wearing summer clothes was the best way to respond to the hysterical reporting of ‘a heatwave’ then you may have ended up with influenza. Remember ”ne’er cast a clout till May is out, ” no matter how sensational the weather headlines may be.

I couldn’t find any tornado outbreak for England for the dates I mentioned there might be one, and am disappointed this year with my forecast for wind levels, in spite of updating the calcs in my data prog..Of course the US had a mass outbreak of tornados around this time and perhaps any mini UK ones didn’t hit the headlines, as usually they are not as intrusive in our country. Sad that so few get reported for our climate when I know we get them often in my region sometimes raging up the street overnight but no one bats an eyelid…..