SUMMER 2015 West Yorks N Yonder UK Weather Brief

Your Summer Weather Forecast for 2015 W Yorks N Yonder UK

Rock carvings Langdale

Apologies to those trying to visit over the past few weeks, but due to some unagreed interference with acceptable transmission of my work and mega plagiarism and reuse  of it,  I have had to temporarily offer only private access to my site. Hopefully this can now change.

This is a quick tour of the weather for W Yorks and Yonder for summer 2015 where yet again I haven’t analysed wind charts nor have I gone into my usual detailed accounting of daily weather patterns but hopefully the forecast wont be too far out and should yield at least 70-80% general accuracy. I am quite pleased with the results of my Spring tour this year which did deliver often 100% accuracy and mostly 85-90% accuracy for my region.

I should advise I normally look at daytime weather rather than overnight conditions, due to most people wanting to know which days are best for outings etc.

I will try and post the August weather trends sometime soon folks………….Enjoy this summer for it could begin to develop into colder summers to come……more of this later.

24th June-2nd July

Potentially seismic outbursts to East China Sea area between Japanese and Chinese/Shanghai region, watch out for this +/- 2 days 24th June

Meanwhile back in W Yorks it looks like some gusty and varying easterlies are around, mostly affecting western regions.

The pattern is optimistic weather wise, if not cause for racing outside and shouting ”hurrah” as it looks likely the week will progress into some gorgeous if not fabulous weather with clear electric blue skies, great photography weather and time to go paragliding, ballooning, fly your kite or just get out into the great outdoors to enjoy the summer conditions.
Temps will be above seasonal ave, while those of you walking the Pennines or peaks will find some cooler temps telling you to walk faster to keep warm, but put your sun hat on and watch it doesn’t get blown away by some gusty cheeky breezes on high.
The only cloud on the horizon is around 30th when some cloud could bring in sporadic showery stuff coming in from the west but don’t worry it wont be enough to spoil things for long. The 1/2nd could see some mists in valleys overnight to early morning near river valleys, humidity levels high overnight with some cloud stopping warmth from escaping our terrestrial atmosphere.

2nd –8th July

I haven’t even bothered delivering the usual analysis for this phase, with two major benefics showing a wonderful combi for all to enjoy in our part of the world, I expect fabulous weather described earlier to continue…the temp highs come later folks and will be worth waiting for unless I see thundery outburst to accompany, watch this space….

8th-16th July
Wow! The only blot on the horizon is some polluting influence, not sure how air based it is, this is due to temps climbing and aggravating conditions for those who have breathing disorders.

The 9th could bring some sporadic showery outbursts, over as fast as they begin, localised hail outbursts likely if they do arrive, mostly to the west of our regions but could spill out over here too, whilst 11th cloud see some precip, but I doubt it will last long, and will provide a welcome breath of fresh air as well as relief for thirsty hard working plants, though of course it will keep the atmosphere cooler. So expect a refreshing downpour.

The East coast looks like getting the real highs of summer this week, however this could also bring in some sea frets potentially spoiling the view at Whitby 13th-16th, but the south westerly region also looks hot, hot, hot, but most of Britain benefits from a lovely summer outbreak of rising temps with some showery outbreaks moving around but not spoiling things too much. The 16th potentially brings in some clear skies and sunny weather for us but I’m not ruling out some scattered hail outbursts in some localities….

16th-24th July

Azores highs seem likely to continue for a few more days at least, always a welcome trend in summer, even though there may also be some showery outbursts and cloud forming as a result of static building as the week progresses. Expect an Azores high building to peak around 14th.
Mars and Mercury combine by 16th to bring in some fast, furious and gusty westerlies, so at least they will move any clouds quickly onwards. There will be turbulence out to sea with this influence- the mid Atlantic suspect, could even be refugees fleeing over sea to Americas.
More clouds to the east at the start of the phase, with potential for quick hail or sporadic showery stuff around mid day on 17th for us, earlier for areas to the west of us, that’s lakes, and further to Wales etc whilst on 18th this is further to the eastern areas where more gloom and cloud are likely, but this could gradually travel east our way on following days.

Some gusty N Westerlies continue keeping temps cool on 18th, getting more hectic and speedy by 19th. By 23rd we can expect some breezy, gusty weather sometimes very brisk and breezy, particularly on high spots and this will create disturbances for air transport, air temps decline and lowering……this system should die off by 20th bringing us up to 21st and onwards into following days when fair weather prevails but with lowering temps.
Sunshine is likely to be around in occasional outbursts rather than prolonged uninterrupted levels 23rd/24th are very unsettled.

24th-31st July

Some mists, cloud and gloom around so don’t expect a brilliant week ahead and scattered thunderstorms could circulate, but haven’t time to track these. Some subterfuge being hidden away on the high seas as well……

Doesn’t look good at all really.. Some fair conditions at the start, but very unsettled, with some easterly gloom hovering further east and threatening to rain on our parade potentially around 26th when it looks likely to be heavier to the east but travelling back our way. Cooling breezes stubbornly refuse to give way to summer from the start. Mists prevail to the NE regions, more heat to areas far south for this phase.

Temps bottom out by 28th while whippy westerlies keep things lively, so no hope of a sunbathe; I also expect some thundery outbursts mostly East/South/N East. Things look to go downhill 29th-31st and farmers struggle to keep haystacks dry, while fruits need careful watching under some unwelcome broody damp weather.

31st also brings in more breezy conditions to keep things cool but 31st things will be humid and still damp but with a promise of better weather ahead….or not..

Prettiest Village in Yorkshire Dales

Advertisements

UK WEATHER BRIEF SPRING 2015: Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder

Best dog ever

First of all apologies to those people who have signed up for regular reading, life and the universe had other plans for recent seasons.
I can’t promise normal service resumed, but promise I will make every effort to do so as it would be reckless to ignore years of skill developed by using astrology to forecast weather.

I can’t promise 90%-100% accuracy for this forecast as I know for sure I abandoned looking at the wind charts settling instead for expedience and using indicators in the other charts instead. I do expect 60%-80% and for sure some weeks may even move towards being 100% accurate, and I do hope this will be the June part of the forecast which will bring in some fine weather if not a flaming June living up to normal expectations.

Spring Weather 2015

The New Moon on 20th March reached perigee on 19th so is not quite a massive headline supermoon but will bring some unsettled weather as this is also the day of the equinox, and the sun rising into the northern hemisphere along with the moon we will see some fast moving weather systems, so don’t expect sunshine or rain to stay around for long. However, this perigee is quite long lasting as some of my weather buddy friends point out (noteably the ever watchful Ken Paone) and Robert Nolle calls it a ‘stealth supermoon’ due to it forming an eclipse while perigee lasts from 13th-27th March capturing the equinoctial phase.

Not only that NM being at the end of one sign and ready to move into another we can expect trends to vary quite dramatically from the outset. The last time we had a New Moon at this stage of motion heralding Spring, was 1996, however this wasn’t eclipsed. I failed to find any records of weather drama for the UK, which is not to say there wasn’t; just that most websites I searched had headlines for other months and years than this. I do expect some spring tides to be wary of at coastal places, with sea frets and mists more to the east coast, but if you like the spectacle of sea horses and crashing waves the coast is where you need to be for this these few days. An eclipse can often nullify expected outcomes, whilst a perigee Moon can often exaggerate them, whilst a planet moving from water to a fire sign can often bring spectacular results all on its ownsome. Certainly the Sun cuspal for the equinox on 20th will bring in some static atmospheric turbulence and with the Moon in tow this indicates mists and fogs.

I’ll be watching the eastern central Philippine area to see if a hurricane arrives there around 20th-21st, but it will be fast moving and short-lived.

Here is a brief tour only:

 

20th-27th March

20th Very unsettled with one weather system soon replacing another in quick succession: cloudier if not gloomy to some areas by evening, and some nebulous wind flow.
21st Wetness seems to stay to the west of us, though some may blow over to parts of W Yorks, with some hail and sleet showers rapidly arising then stopping suddenly as it began, more likely to south of England, but in fast moving pockets. Usually weather like is accompanied with sunshine, but this can soon be overtaken by cloud as well so any sun spells may not be long lasting. 8-10pm could also see more outbursts as described. Some cold whippy northerlies and westerlies could be attempting to clear way the unsettled weather from today.
22nd Clouds around, humidity hints at warmer temps, clouds and mist by late evening.
23rd Some warmth could break out today but humidity rules so misty pockets could spoil visibility, especially at the start of the day (this means at the turn of day around midnight onwards beyond 1am) so take care whilst travelling throughout Yorkshire and beyond….Some cold pockets out of the sun where breezes wind around corners and some cloud around.
24th I expect some showery outbursts today evening the likely time centreing around 3-4pm. Mists and clouds rule especially denser to the east regions, Spring April like showers highly likely so don’t take a sunny spell for granted. Still some warmth around so a heartening trend for gardeners with bulbs enjoying the weather. I also expect some whippy westerlies to be active today, more so to the NW regions.
25th Cooler temps sun with cloud around, micro hail and sleet outbreaks, particularly in the evening, interfere with sunny spells.
26th NW winds in spurts bring in icy temps to high and exposed places, but ensure clouds get blown away faster leaving a promise of sunshine as well……………………but not for long……………………….read on

27th March to 3rd April

Rain over the West will slowly, oh so slowly, beginning to move into West Yorkshire from today and will bring some heavy outbursts which will leave roads flooding as it moves on. I expect parts of Cumbria to be vulnerable to this from the 26th, as well as some places in W Yorks where rivers and lakes and flood plains will be witness to the incoming deluge. Ireland, Wales and Western Isles of Scotland will also take in this system from the outset. The East of use fares slightly better, but rain will travel in their direction by 28th when it is heavier to W Yorks before moving east.

Winds will still be keeping temps cool on high or exposed areas and will be quite brisk and Nor westerly

The 31st sees off the worst of this slow moving system but is still unsettled, while the 1st is calmer in outlook with no surprises weather wise, and the 2nd brings cooler conditions to E Anglia but fairer weather to the north, some easterlies threatening to spoil things again with a bit of gloom and some unsettled winds around, but by evening the sun is beckoning and promises a better day to enjoy for 3rd….enjoy……………..a lovely Spring day at last.

4th — 12th April

Some migrating lightening and t/storms likely making it difficult to positively locate them without taking a long time, but they can be expected during daytime rather than the night. Eastern parts of UK, East Anglia especially will see a lot of this type of weather.

4th potential showery outbursts by mid day with sporadic hail sleet type outbursts in some pockets of W Yorks during mid afternoon, so sunshine in between these outbursts. Eastern UK could see some of these outbursts
5th Rain likely to move down eastern coastal areas, dry to W Yorks but cool, very cool and lots of static around. Some occasional sun spells
6th Thunderstorms look likely mid morning to North, South and Eastern parts of Britain, W Yorks may get some inward moving systems but for us this clears by 1-2pm when sunshine and better weather should break out. North Westerlies strong and active but will hopefully take away the static stormy breakouts.
7th Cool day with some sunshine around but NW winds are strong and cutting, on high ground and coming downslope so watch out when travelling in valleys where wind tunnels can create problems.
8th Cold day with some cloud around , winds are still active keeping things cold but blowing clouds away to leave some gaps with blue sky coming through. Unsettled outlook by evening.
9th Much better outdoor weather today temps can be warmer than previous days
10th Cool but sunny with temps warming up. Winds could prove lively and highly excitable at times.
11th Should be a better Spring day with some warmth around come the 12th ……………………………………

My mum is so going to miss me this time of the year

12th-18th April
A generally fair but blustery phase, overall cool, breezy just about says it all, but there should some sunshine around too with Spring warmth for first few days.
The winds excited on 10th may continue to affect NW regions which could encounter comms and transport probs, while from 12th-14th hail sleet and snow outbreaks to NW Brit regions could see snowfall on highland areas.

12th Cold start; warmth from Sun by mid day and afternoon. Some mists could arise near watery places. Temps rising with southerlies.
13th Warmth around mid day and pm, but this could trigger a quick shower or two mid afternoon scattered and intermittent until before sunrise on 14th. Some mists also due to warmth creating moisture.
14th Some dampness remains but temps mod for season and some sunshine could break out between clouds, with potential for rain after mid day.
15th Cool, breezy and cloud around, easterlies bring in some gloomy conditions, lowering temps.
16th A slow moving weather pattern with clouds around, lower temps but it will be fairer to areas to in North and South Britain. Some gentle southerlies around too.
17th A fairer outlook for today.

18th-25th April

Temps look like being seasonally lower range for us, but down in Aus they could be battling the usual treetop fiery outbursts so watch the weather news for these headlines……

Overall drier weather should prevail until last two days, with some good spring-like days emerging, notably 21st- 22nd when ozone highs should keep everyone happy, so try get outdoors for the spring lift, but wrap up warmly…..

18th Southerly flows, some sunshine to enjoy during the day but by mid night it looks like some scattered stormy outbreaks stop play outdoors.
19th A few micro showers around breakfast time and again by teatime 6pmish but some sunshine in between but remember temps will be lower than usual, though some warmth from the sun at mid day onwards.
20th Should turn into a lovely spring day, a great day for getting sheets dry but watch out for those whippy keen westerlies if you are kite flying or ballooning..
21st The ozone highs arrive so expect a sunny day; cold, if not nippy, but great for outdoors. Northerlies keep things cooler but fresher.
22nd Winds northerly then whippy westerly and pretty speedy by late evening could be lively but at least they keep any clouds from turning things grey……..but
23rd-24th are the days when rain may arrive to spoil things heavier to mid day on 24th when it should subside…temps lower still to that of previous days.

25th April-4th May

The eastern coastal regions look to be enjoying some sea mists due to getting the best of the sunshine from the outset with E Anglia getting what highs of Spring are operating, but it should also be reasonably spring like with sunshine to W Yorks at the start. Temps fresh and moderately Spring like with some improved temps by 27th, but not for long….

25th-26th Sudden air frosts but generally fair, sun with cloud around. Good for photography so get the camera ready
27th Sees better temps slowly arising along with less cloud
28th Some mists or cloudiness bring potential for showery outbursts, here by around 7pm
29th Cooler, sun with cloud and mists to watery areas
30th Fast moving system now, with showery outburst potential before sunrise over next few days, clouds and mist around to western areas so don’t expect too much sunshine to stay around today.
1st –3rd Breezy, cool Westerlies argue with Easterly flows unsettling the atmosphere and allowing for some gloom to slowly develop over next few days. Frosty with intermittent hail or sleet showers in between sun spells leaving it cooler but with sun around by 3rd.

My Favourite Place Friar’s Crag Walk

4th-11th May

This phase doesn’t look good at all. Weather headlines for Cumbria expected, generally most of Britain will not enjoy great conditions. Conflicting weather systems leave things very unsettled from the outset with clouds and winds keeping the sun at bay. Temps stay below normal range until 6th when things can warm up, but this may just trigger mists and mizzles afterwards.

4th Very unsettled outlook develops and prevails over next few days with gloomy easterlies arguing with westerlies, and ain may result, heavy at times.
5th Could see stormy outbursts with NW regions getting the worst of the weather, clearer by evening
6th Better day after a misty cloudy start cool but some blue skies around with breezes keeping temps cool.
7th Some warming of temps today but clouds around, mists develop later in the day near watery places
8th Some rain expected around sunrise, if not continuing sporadically from night before. Cloud around not sure if the sun will get out today.
9th Skies should be clearer temps less harsh but winds variable with intermittent sharp, scattered showers expected along with sun spells
10th Looks like the better weather is on its way………………..read on……….

11th May-18th

Not a very good outlook with some turbulence still operating though East Anglia looks to be the lucky part of the UK with better conditions augured. Temps still staying below seasonal average but the heavy rains look to be behind us for this phase. Less sun to enjoy than we would like, and we’ll be left putting heads down and getting on with it. Still, that’s Spring moving towards a better outlook for June…hopefully….here’s a very brief tour for W Yorks region

11th Could be some scattered showers around, suns spells possible today
12th Mists, gloomy to western parts but westerlies are getting lively today so should help blow some clouds around leaving gaps for sunshine to come through.13th A rather bland spring day for us.
14th More unsettled conditions sun around with humidity developing.
15th Sun with cloud and winds vying with each other again.

18th-25th May
This phase begins with wet weather but refreshing the gloomy atmosphere of previous days. Still some unsettled atmospherics that can interfere with air traffic, but the last few days hold a hint of better days to come. The damp chill of former days might not be so oppressive this phase.
18th showery very early before or around sunrise, clearing by mid day if not mid morning. Northerlies argue with westerlies, expect some wind chills to remind us this is Spring not summer.
19th-20th similar to yesterday but winds get more active and keep things cool, less likelihood of showers breaking out.
21st The weather begins to warm up a little with expectation of sunshine for today.
22nd It will definitely rain today…really it will…watch for 1-2pm
23rd -25th Isolated cloudburst expected potential for news of tornado affecting Midlands as winds may get a bit wilder, rising temps however, breezy, sudden wind spurts but fairer weather slowly breaks out but this means mists can form and it is they that can interfere with flights.

25th May 2nd June
Don’t worry the good weather news comes soon for June, just watch it trying to breakthrough valorously during this phase!
There will be some mists around mainly eastern quarters, but also to valleys as descending cold clashes with arising heat trends, and some lashing westerlies may cause problems by 27th, troubling some to NW Scotland. The south looks to get the fairer weather but this will change by 31st.
Generally a good phase for gardeners to watch their crops thrive on the weather conditions.

25th Stratus clouds dominate the north with hail and sleet likely to sporadically hit pockets to the north, with highlands getting snow. Very cold on high ground with chills lowering temps as they fall leading to some mists forming to valleys, late evening as well. In between showery outbursts some sunshine could be present but these micros are difficult to track-probably valleys such as Ilkley, Addingham will get the mists while Grassington will see fairer weather.
26th A misty start with lots of cloud around clearing by mid day leading to cool but sunnier outlook
27th A fast moving system aided by some high speed lashing westerlies sunshine covered by clouds as they speed along.
28th A more settled outlook as winds subside with warmth from sun by mid day onwards HURRAH! Summer beckons….
29th Variable breezes, sun with cloud.
30th Some mists around early morning but clearing away later, however it does look as though some more rain makes its presence felt by evening so don’t take anything for granted when the sun shines.
31st Sun provides heat but forms clouds drying up any rain from previous day leaving cloud around for 1st which could stay gloomy, but generally the pattern from 31st- 2nd is one of a fairer
outlook to the north with temps lowering on previous days and some cloud around……..But oh look at 2nd June………book this for your day off and plan a mega outing……………….might even be a great evening for a barbie!

2-9th June

This is the phase when you can get out the barbies, put on your best summer gear and plan for some great outdoors. The only blot on the horizon is some fast and furious sleet and hail and lightening storms raging around by 6th, like a petulant winter trying to stop summer from arriving. Expect both lows and highs with some areas reporting extremes for that day.

2nd Cool sunny day with warmth from sun pretty comforting by mid day onwards
3rd A lovely evening for sure, during the day some varying temps could see cold in shade and exposed areas but temps in sun in sheltered areas will be lovely
4th Fairer weather to north especially
5th some early mists as the earth warms up clearing the way for rising temps today, another lovely evening to enjoy outdoors
6th An all weather day with highs and sudden lows and some static around causing micro hail and sleet showery stuff, some lightening around too as micros circulate inland and to lowlands.
Take your brolly but don’t expect outbursts to last long, it’s a war of the weather but summer wins! Records could be broken today weather wise, some localities could end up with misty stuff but don’t worry it wont stay around long term..
7th onwards some lovely highs can now rule with fair summer weather and higher temps to enjoy though on 9th will be interfered with by whippy, cheeky, gusts and spurts of Nor westerlies.

9th-16th June

A very quick tour of the weather for this phase brings in seasonal record breaking highs by 11th-16th. The East looks set to be where the best weather of all is, the west could see a little more cloud, but overall this is summer at last with sunshine to enjoy.
Overall expect wholesome weather great for outdoors and smell the ozone. Scattered clouds, blue skies and perfect days to enjoy
9th-14th sees southerlies around while the 9th is a glorious day, the 12th could see some scattered precipitation on 12th, the 11th sees a real ratcheting up of temps with some isolated hail shower potential to some pockets mainly east late evening.
14th-16th potential for some breeziness turning NW but at least it keeps Mr Rain from spoiling things.

Aaaaah Summer days

Summer Solstice phase 16th-24th June

Slightly more cloud for us this last phase of Spring, but overall we can expect some fair weather to continue along with seasonal higher range of temps. Some breezes could keep things seasonally cool by 19th as the sun gets ready to rise even higher in the sky which of course always brings in some disturbance as we enjoy all those squelchey wellies around
Glastonbury…they might get drier ground this year!
On 21st, solstice day, we can expect a little cooling with some cloud playing with sun spells around mid day, breezy but overall fair weather to enjoy.
Records for the East GB expected.

SUMMER 2014 WEST YORKS N YONDER

Summer 2014

I expect to see some lovely weather over summer this year, but this wont be guaranteed every week till Autumn!

We have to wait till Jupiter moves into Leo, but this will be heralded by some extreme weather headlines around the middle of July…more of this later perhaps…if I get time.

I can only deliver the first few weeks of summer 2014 long range forecast and have focussed upon the weather for the Tour de France taking place in the fabulous landscape of Yorkshire this year. Yorkshire has a landscape I have always called Gods own country, so nice to know the local BBC programmers have also started calling it that too in recent years. Cyclists are not going to be disappointed if they lose after encountering some of the most fabulous rolling hills and dales on the planet.

Read on to see what my forecast predicts weather wise, and I can also say that for Leeds, this is a fabulous time astrologically to showcase the city and surrounding areas, as well as to host the start of this much awaited and celebrated sporting event and may I also say I expect a cyclist born within our city limits to arrive as a winner. Good luck!

19th-27th June
We can expect some great outdoor weather mostly dry, lots of sunshine around but wind spells can cause a few erratic wind tunnels, paricularly on high ground and along valleys in deep rifts 24tth-27th likeliest days for these to arrive, so watch out if cycling down on a practise run from Buttertubs to Grassington.
Potential arrives for scattered and localised electrical breaks to sunshine with hail spurts also expected to some localities.
Highs continue as summer announces the salute to the height of the sun in our hemisphere, on 21st, so get out your bikes to cycle to the stone circles on Ilkley Moor or in Grassington to help celebrate a major seasonal marker. The 21st usually sees a few weather disturbances due to the sun ingressing from one environment to another but precipitations looks more likely to hit the NW Scotland regions, though could arrive to some northern parts of England as days continue.. The 20th could see a few showery outbursts around breakfast but I don’t expect these to linger too long, and could even turn out to be just some mists and clouds.
Generally sunny fair weather with highs of the season to enjoy 24th-27th but as mentioned earlier these could be accompanied by winds as well in exposed areas paricularly. 27th could see mists lingering into mid morning.

27th June -5th July

I expect highs for the season to be checked against records for this phase. 30th sees some static build along with heat from former days. There should be some blue skies and good summer weather around but after 3rd things could begin to turn a little cooler.

The chart for this ‘Tour’ phase echoes some of the conditions we dealt with in March/April this year when easterlies brought over pollution from Europe, combining with strong winds fetching sand up from the Sahara. However, it does look as if this time the sands get blown over SE England across to mainland Europe leaving cyclists with better visibility than they would have had with sand in their eyes! I don’t discount the possibility of more pollution blowing over from the east and it does look set to hit east coastal regions. hopefully not hitting the main cycle route.

5th July-12th.

This phase brings in a tendency for lowering of temps on former week, but I am sure cyclists will welcome less intense heat for their race. I expect longer lasting weather disturbances to grow as the phase continues but fortunately these look set to be at their worst around the 8th after the race has finished.

This phase shows seimicity operating, but this will affect eastern parts of the UK avoiding cycling routes, or it could manifest as pollution coming in to the east coast regions from Europe.

I have focussed mainly upon race days 5-6th.
5th potential for early morning mists due to warmth lingering, or showers from midnight to before sunrise with some noisy pockets of wind of varying speed, mostly northerly keeping things cool. Potential for varying localised showery conditions for some parts of the Yorkshire region in the morning, for mid morning in W Leeds after the race has set off from the city centre. Weather should be clearer by the afternoon to midnight generally.

6th Again midnight to before sunrise there is potential for showery outbreaks, mists and clouds, so watch out on grassy areas that could be slippy if you are camping out. Mid day brings a risk of more showery outbursts, and mists or clouds could still be lingering near watery places in valleys. The afternoon and evening should see the better conditions with sunshine around.
Temps will be variable but lowering, with varying cloud and sunshine on these two days. Once the showery intervals clear we can expect sun and cloud and some good visibility to watch the race with.

It’s the 8-9th that bring in the worst weather of the phase, but before 12th Full Moon I expect better weather to be turning up.

Hopefully I shall be able to finish the summer long range forecast and publish it soon, watch this space……..

Spring Weather West Yorks and Yonder

Hello everyone. Apologies for late posting of Spring long range weather forecast for W Yorks and yonder in UK but it is here at last, and due to new formatting on WordPress, I’m finding it easier to just refer you to the forecast in full on http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com

I am uanable to deliver the feedback on forecasts any more, but I am sure you will let me know how accurate or way out it is as the weather arrives!

Cheers and enjoy the season.

UK Long Range Forecast for Solstice 2013 and Winter 2014

The latest Long Range weather forecast for the winter season 2014 is now posted on

 

http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com

Apologies for any inconvenience to your viewing preferences.

AUTUMN WEATHER 2013: W. YORKS: UK: LONG RANGE FORECAST

Autumn 2013

Writing this in early July 2013, after the heady heatwave that broke by 22nd, it’s easy to see more heatwaves continuing well into Autumn….in our dreams. Certainly the season starts with some highs and the area between GB and

Europe is where the best temps reign supreme for a while, so eastern GB looks to be enjoying some nice highs at this stage. To the west of GB some highs also linger but with mists and hazes and some cloud that stops Sun
performing as well as we would like. This looks like turning very autumnal by 5th October when I expect high winds and some stormy outcome.

In fact I expect signs of autumn to show early in leaves and grass due to the drought conditions that left herbiage unquenched and needing sprinklers to keep them moist. In such conditions we get early drop and dying out of
summer growth, the signs usually associated with Autumn in fact.

October charts brought a bit of a challenge. First of all for three weeks we get the same indicators for similar weather patterns for three weeks of the month from 5th-18th and even by 26th there is only a slight variation on the theme with a more intense outlook being generated.

Winter makes its presence around the corner quite clear by 10th November phase when temps try to remain mild but begin to give way to an icy cold front and freezing mists and fogs by 12-13th and this could create some transport
problems. it was chilly just looking at these temps let alone living with them!

This forecast takes us up to the end of November and will be updated in October to take us up to Christmas.

September 2013

FM 19th-27th September
Could be some outpourings to the west prior to this phase, with any residue meandering eastwards from the outset on 27th. If you can remember back in 31st May and first week in June, the Mets kept telling us about the Azores
high and sure enough we got mosquito outbreaks in its wake!

We will still be enjoying a continuation of some good weather for this phase, another potential Azores streak that bathes us in some nice seasonally high temps. NW Scotland could see some variable temps with occasional
dullness, mists haze and cloudiness depending on altitude and this could slowly move further down the west. But overall a good weather trend to enjoy.

27th October-5th October

This is where Autumn discernibly moves in.

The fair weather continues for a few more days, but temps get cooler as the phase progresses growing autumnally cold by 30th when I expect precipitation to hit NW regions, i.e lakes area. Unsettled conditions turns the tide on the good weather from 29th with winds growing restless and ready to blow off the dead leaves. Winds grow ever more erratic by 1st keeping things cool and a little chilly, with sporadic rainy outbursts, mizzle and drizzles heralding the end of summer and dawn of Autumn. Temps much cooler by 3rd onwards when winds rev up in speed and temps grow even more variable and cold, could mean gales for some regions, but some sunshine afterwards for last 2 days I would think.

5th-11th October
The cold weather looks likely to continue with gentle southerlies around at the outset trying to ward off any bitterness, but with northerlies above we can expect mostly clouds forming and localised showery outbursts from 5th, moving eastwards.

By the 7th the weather gets much more unsettled with mists haze and cloud around watery places, with warmth and cold air vying with each for space. I expect clouds if not mists and haze to predominate by late afternoon or
evening, particularly to the eastern areas of our region.
8th Brings a cloudy morning, some mists may linger, more showery outburst likely. Easterlies predominate increasing cloudiness as the day wears on, erratic gustiness makes things unpleasant if not a little stormy with NW one of
the areas of GB most vulnerable to these outburst and squalls. Could be hail or sleet and it is cold so I’m not ruling out snow arriving or heralded by these weather conditions, and it could be highland areas that gets news of the impending arrival.
9th slightly milder conditions, snow still likely as previously mentioned and showery outbursts localised but very heavy at times, but some sunshine spells around to brighten up the outlook.
10th-11th Southerlies blow with a slight rise in mists and haze lingering , high humidity and isolated cloudbursts with heavy downpours for many regions, again looks most likely to North east and west at this stage.
1

1th-18th October

Clearer but cooler conditions rule off east of GB with these slowly moving in later this phase. Milder temps look more likely to far west of UK and this could clash with fogs and mists forming when the two meet.
Residual flood conditions could still be taking up traffic news at the outset and the NW region looks like one of most likely candidates.
A more biting chill factor arrives after 16th when temperatures will get colder as days progress, reminding us winter is on the way.

I expect sporadic isolated cold showery outburst 12-13th, hail or sleet for high places, some cloud to contend with but winds blowing them about creating some windows for sun to shine through now and again. Winds can be gusty
on some days. 13th sees snappy westerlies gusting at times and easterlies bringing in a cloudy outlook with localised showery outbursts, most likely before lunch, 15th and 17th stronger gusty outlook.

14th colder with some sun spells and less likelihood of showery outbreaks
15th Much more unsettled, winds get gustier and lustier and sharp
16th temps move cooler than previous days with frosts likely but a crisp atmosphere more moderate winds and clear visibility with lovely skies. High places could see snow and will be much colder than in lower areas.
17th Rain hail or even sleet, could be heavy at times beginning in the morning for us. Winds gusty, cold coming in from east, a touch of frost early in the morning and at night also heralded for the end of this phase.
18th seems to herald a likelihood of scattered showery outbreaks but read on………………..

18th-26th October

A continuation of similar weather to the last phase but with echoes of a chance of breaking the 1985 March Cambridgeshire 29.4C high on 1st October, but this time it looks at if Suffolk beats the temps with Felixstowe region the most likely winner. Certainly highs rules there from the 18th. This temp was broken 1st October 2011 when 29.9C was hit at Gravesend Kent, and highs will reach by18th a well.

The theme for weather in October 1985 for a similar chart to our current one was showery outbursts with thunder around the UK for 6 days between 2-9th October, and this pattern will repeat as some mugginess and warmth moves
in and isolated torrential downpours arrive as the phase unfolds. Some outbreaks can be short sharp hail showers as at Stainburn Cumbria when 20mm stones hit unsuspecting passers by on 4th of that month. The west of GB as
well as Scotland got the worst of the rain by 6th with snow falling to Cairngorms and Highlands 8th-9th—I expect a similar pattern to emerge as days progress. 1985 brought an Azores High into play and we miss the full heat of this
but a warm front is forming far wet and north of the Azores and we can expect some semi tropical lows to come over, but this is likely to form mists, haze clouds and fogs as it clashes with some of the colder air from 16th.

Isolated and scattered thunderstorms expect, to our region.

Sunset to sunrise should see less to no rainy outbursts for the most part and temps are very mild for the time of year. Evenings look likely to be a bit muggy and foggy, when usually a Full Moon sees clear night skies, but this
could change after midnight for a short while till after sunrise when precipitation favours falling at this stage of the moon.

Winds could get very lively to some regions with westerlies gusty and cutting at times, and northerlies joining in by 23rd but these usually bring a turn in the weather outlook and can clear up and bad conditions.

18th As previously forecast but the scattered showery stuff looks to be moving eastwards and seems further south. This is the day when Suffolk and SE regions get the highs. news of thunderstorms for GB could also be breaking.
Sun spells likely for us.
19th I expect a dry day with northerlies seeing off any total cloud cover forming, but it can be a little muggy with these temps. Fogs and mists likely near water over next few days.
20th Atmospheric disturbances expected from today. Localised sporadic downpours erratic, and intermittent during the day, heavy to some regions, ours too. A seismic time with EQ news for SE Russia or NE China…132E lat
55-60N long but 21st has more signals for exactitude? Semi tropical lows arrive with high humidity and cloudburst slowly circulating, thick hazes and fogs can also form with travel over the Atlantic under stress in these conditions. Gusty on occasions but mostly nebulous and variable breezes and winds.
21st Could be a drier outlook but high humidity and some cloud mists and fogs to valleys.
22nd Quick isolated and localised hail outbursts, but temps seasonally mild generally, very unsettled weather outlook.
23rd We can expect extremes of temps for the season to be causing raised eyebrows but I expect them to be on the warm side rather than colder than expected (famous last words!) Weather now gets pulled eastwards for a few
days and it does seem a little squally with variable winds, gusting at times and strong to NW and Scotland causing some travel problems on roads and highways. More mists fogs and haze around and by 24th onwards isolated
rainy weather travels eastwards with muggy conditions .
25th has some promise for sun spells and more semi tropical type temps but accompanies by mists and haze, so it looks like a cloudy night is heralded keeping the temps seasonably mild. Haze expect, mists and fogs to valleys
with variable winds continuing.

Oct 26th-3rd November

Perhaps levels of rain might be lower than we usually expect, and temps milder than expected for this time of year, and East Anglia seems to be getting a lot of the better ranges of sunshine with perhaps drier conditions and warmer
temps than the rest of us, I’m not ruling out drought conditions creating some problems for the region either.

For this phase I expect thunderstorms to arrive but little to no floods, although by the end of the phase heavier rain is likely, but the NW looks likely to get some pretty sharp or extreme outcomes.

Tornado Alley in the US looks busy at this time also.

26th Variable winds from the outset, some sunshine around but clouds developing, temps on the mild side

27th-29th Some quick sleet and sporadic showers expected, localised and intermittent but temps still mild generally and high humidity with occasional cloudbursts–quite sharp and heavy by 29th where NW sees the heavier precipitation.

From 29th weather gets easterly cloudier and skies duller and storms can be pushed northwards+ NE with outlook clearer for the southern regions. This system looks fast moving and consists of rain turning to sleet, snow with hail outbursts with winds breezy, very gusty and temps getting lower with rainfall cooling them off, some wild and windy weather is also expected.

1st Nov looks less unsettled with some chance of sunshine and clearer skies for days ahead, but breezy conditions are very active.

The last two days will have some sunshine during the day, but look more likely to see some rain travelling across by evening for us and for southern regions as well and strong westerlies remain gusty if not blizzard like, but some sunshine could also break out, but I expect snow to be in the news at the outset of our next phase Dublin and some parts of GB look to be white by 3rd, could be frost or snow…read on……

3d Nov-10th

A cold front arrives during this phase but turning milder by the end. 4th and 8th look to be the main culprits for wet weather, but other days can bring in some cold showery outbreaks. Winds should be less active for us.

3rd Looks like a little warming for southern regions anyway, but there is also cloud around and cold pockets, with rain sleet and snow showery outbreaks.
4th A low system brings a cold front, not ruling out snow either, skies look dull with cold mists and fogs likely to coast and valleys, showers can be intermittent and drizzly the skies are much better before sunrise so get up early to see them!
5th Some sun attempts by morning, accompanied by quick hail and sleet showers, sporadic and localised, unsettled conditions with occ sun spells.
6th The next few days brings in some haze, variable winds, some dull cloudy weather from 6th, but some sun spells, 7th will be cloudier later with poor visibility trends, could be more drizzles overnight to next day 8th is calm but humid and mists from overnight, easterlies shows some muggy conditions around but a bright promise around 6-9 am
9th can see some sun around mid day a risk of short sharp showers around sunset and more easterlies keeping things a bit dull
10th Generally fair but a risk of showers again by evening.

10th-17th November

This is when temps come to be extremely wintery with icy cold conditions and freezing over likely. Generally fair conditions at the first few days between mists and showery outbursts

10th Some windy weather from the outset with easterlies gusting around mid day, but this gives way to calmer conditions later at night. Sporadic hail and sleet showers expected from around midnight to early 1 am on 10th onwards. freezing fogs likely late at night towards 11th so take care on the roads.
11th Rain and showery conditions moving to east of us, some southerlies around but mild, and more freezing fogs by evening.
12th Some cloud with sunny spells during the day
13th Cool with sun spells from sunrise onwards should be a nice by the afternoon but some clouds and mists to valleys expected by evening.
14th Hail and sleet can burst out but not be long lived otherwise some fair trned operating
15th Today brings a very noticeable cold low into play when we could see water begin to freeze over. Icy cold showers could break out late evening and there is some potential for sleet if not snow storms with higher elevations affected, but this cold front is going to be very chilling.

16th-17th Cloudy some gentle breezy conditions about, cloudier to northern parts, fairer to the south but chilly, some warmth from sun during mid day on 17th.

17th-25th November

This phase shows extremes of temp lowering to very icy with the big freeze coming over. By 20th we could see some cold air descending to meet iciness producing some wind emergencies down in the Midlands, and the west
could also see some action from westerlies veering north to try and clear everything up a bit.

East Anglia, Norfolk regions look very cold too, so does NW of Scotland where temps are very low the SW England and NE Scotland also look in line to get snowfall by 17/18th……….

17th-18th Looks windy to the east of us, temps nippy, frost on the ground likely with potential for sleet and winter showers giving a show of white cover. Some sun could be around to keep things cheerful, with evening skies being clearer but creating cold conditions due to no or little cloud cover.

19th-20th Some rising temps during the day with sunshine trying to gain control, but hail and sleet flurries look set to come over from the east for us, heavier to the eastern parts, heavier for us on 20th and to southern shores.
Today -20th-brings in the winds I mentioned above , these can be gusty, the Midlands and Scotland look worse hit by these, nippy, keeping things very cutting, temps very icy out of the daytime sunshine. I’m not ruling out sleet hail and snow blizzards with this wind, creating a bit of a news headline.
21st Icy showers arrive today possibly by lunchtime, some sun spells with cloud and some south-easterly air flows keeping things muggy during the day.
22nd is very unsettled with south westerlies around, could be a rough ride weather wise if not an all weather day when we get rain, hail sleets snow and sun till the weather decides what it is going to do. These outbursts will be very localised and intermittent through the day.
23rd Cloudy but fairer potential for snowfall also or sleet and hail creating fogs and mists by late afternoon due to high humidity and by 24th little to no or nebulous winds growing cloudier by evening with an intensely cold low front moving in heralding dull leaden skies and moving eastwards today and on 25th when easterlies make things gloomier Bbbbrrrrrrr……..

This post is also repeated on http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com
Reports on accuracy of weekly outcomes will be resumed at a later stage. Read previous postings on weekly feedback of previous seasons to get a measure of accuracy which is often 80-90% and for many weeks in a season it can be 100% using the same methods our ancient forecasters used to forecast weather using ancient satellite technology.

UK SUMMER WEATHER 2013 West Yorks and Yonder Long Range Forecast

Long Range Weather Forecasting that Doesn’t Cost the Earth

 

 

In February I published my Spring Forecast on my blogs at www.amazingweather.wordpress.com  so please visit there to keep up with the Spring long range forecast, also on www.ukweatherbrief.wordpress.com   where you can read feedback on previous season accuracy to verify results.

I realise some parts of W Yorks will often have rainfall or more sunshine than other parts, and due to such micros operating it is difficult to locate and forecast these within only one or two miles of each other, hence discrepancies often operating between my forecasting and localised weather micros throughout the region. Happily this is a rare perhaps once a month event, leaving an overall  reasonable reliability for our regional long range outcomes.
Introduction Summer 2013 UK W Yorks and Yonder

First of all I do have to write an explanation of why it is difficult delivering 100 per cent accurate forecasts for one region such as W Yorks. For 18th March, for example,  I had forecast it to be a fine start with hail before sunrise, but some mists and fogs to some localities. My locality had fogs, mists and continuous thin snow showers from very early am, clearly fulfilling the warning of fogs to some localities. I haven’t had time to see if anywhere in W Yorks got the fine start with hail, to test the fullness of the forecast. However, another forecast for 8th March was for a localised outbreak of hail and sleet, but sunshine and clear skies, cold temps and strong gusty winds. Instead we got thick cloud, gloomy, drizzly stuff with fogs later in the evening, so not a good forecast for my locality at all. HOWEVER, just a mile away, still in W Yorks going over to Otley the mists cleared to high visibility and finer weather conditions on this day, which is the locality for where my forecast was accurate. Otley and Addingham and other W Yorks towns, often deliver little micros that are difficult to pin down, and there is little I can do to prevent their weather often showing up stronger than that of other W Yorks regions on  around 10 per cent of occasions. This is one reason why I don’t promise 100 per cent accuracy for my outcomes.

Summer brings six planets to the northern hemisphere so summer should have some seasonally warm temps, but 2011 had some 6 planets in the north and that brought some colder conditions comparing it to 1993 which was very very cold with only three planets north. In August Venus moves south taking spring to their hemisphere early and perhaps auguring an earlier Autumn for us.

Junes seems to begin a cycle of flooding till 22nd July when it looks at this stage as if a heatwave arrives, but don’t raise your hopes too high! Nice temperatures look set to break out for the first part of July 8th-14th approximately depending on where in the UK you live.

So we seem to begin the summer with dangers of floods for the first half followed by either a heatwave or some hot summer temperatures bringing in cracking thunderstorms. I can guarantee the thunderstorms breaking out, but not for exact locations as they will be moving around quite rapidly on occasions.……..make sure your tent is waterproofed and earthed!  Mid July to end of August shows t/storms and lightening proliferating as temps get high and humid with a lot of static around.

22nd to 29th July looks a little tempestuous after some warm summer temps create a risk of static discharge and floods are likely to be in the news. This phase is reminiscent of April 2000 when rainfall was above average but Ireland got an unbeatable low of -8.2 degrees C. I don’t think we’ll be beating that temp, as this phase does look warmer than that! The eastern coast will be hit by scattered electrical outbursts from the start. Cumbria but mostly Eng/Welsh border does look vulnerable at this phase by 28-29th, so do some parts of Scotland, so I will be watching the news for outcomes. Also, we can expect news of some serious religious, financial and commercial discord at this time, with clergy and bankers as well as corporates under attack. News of more terrorist activity is also likelihood and I will be looking out for news of the sea–perhaps more piracy out there for this time of the year.
I took the following info about similar patterns for 3-4th July 2002 from the MET site to show you how this phase could pan out, as similar conditions prevail for this phase.
‘’Mean temperatures generally close to average across the whole of the UK. A very wet month across most parts, with some areas receiving three times their normal rainfall.

At Leuchars it was the wettest July since records began in 1922, with 145.8 mm. Temperatures touched 33 °C at Northolt on the 29th, with 83 mm at Marham, Norfolk on the 30th.

England and Wales diary of highlights

Unsettled and chilly first half followed by a warm dry spell, then more changeable. Hot and thundery later with some downpours and local flooding. Fresher closing days.

1st to 12th Unsettled and cool with frequent outbreaks of rain as low-pressure systems and their associated fronts traversed the region. Most days were decidedly wet especially in central and southern areas of England. The rain was often heavy and accompanied by thunder, the latter being reported on the 2nd, 3rd and 5th. Thundery showers also affected a number of places on the 10th to 12th.’’

 
Summer 2013 daily long range forecasts

 
16th-23rd June

This phase spans the solstice and with Glastonbury running this year, we normally expect mud baths and lots of wellies around to add to the fun of the festival……..I would have to spend a few hours with the special chart for Glastonbury to see whether it is likely to happen this way this year….though I haven’t looked up the date, though usually it occurs at the solstice. (Just took a look 26th-30th June…errmmmm looks like they got a proper forecast to help eliminate the usual solsticial mud bath then:-)
Certainly the weather is unsettled from 20th-22nd, and there is a high risk of mists and mugginess ruling off the west coast of Ireland and GB, and I hope this doesn’t spell more sea disasters to west of Ireland, as this chart I am looking at has echoes of November 2011 when a huge wave tipped over a boat off the coast, leaving six men in the water. This event could precede this weather during squalls of last phase, but better safe than sorry, as some strong gusty weather continues from last phase into 16th and 17th and some UK wide localised scattered thunderstorms could break out during this phase 16th-23rd, difficult to track as they will travel around.

Mistiness can break out over watery places in valleys and days around the solstice are likely candidates.

On a more positive note, temperatures look more summery for this time of the year as the sun makes a move into our hemisphere, but around 20th-22nd this produces unsettled weather

16th Sees temps rising but some very brisk gusty winds could keep things seasonally cool. Variable cloudiness, particularly over to the west of us, with a risk of heavy rainfall by very late evening. Some West NW gales or strong gusty conditions around some parts as well.

17th Temps warmer today, warmer still to eastern parts, with some nebulous wind spurts, and it looks like a dry day

18th Another dry day expected, variable cloud around but temps cooler than previous days.

19th Cloudy start likely but clearing to bring in a sunnier afternoon, this looks like a nice day with some nice blue skies to enjoy….

20th Unsettled weather today with a risk of early morning showers around and more risk of showers by evening, breezy outlook.

21st A lot more cloud around today, early and by evening, with light haze and mists to distant view and high ground and near watery places, some drizzly outbursts localised not for all areas W Yorks and yonder. To be honest I’m not ruling out a quick sleet or snow attempt either…

22nd High humidity likely trend, with quick outbursts of hard hitting precip very early am and near sunrise, cloud with sunshine expected.

23rd It looks rainy to far west of us before sunrise, and this could travel over to some parts of our region, and could even be a continuation of showery stuff from the night before, this looks like wafting in a cooler outlook, some sunshine could break out, but read on>>>>>>>>>>

23rd June -30th

High temperatures look likely to break out to the West of Ireland and Scotland’s West coast might benefit too for a change, helping them eliminate the gloomy conditions formerly reigning over there.

This could turn out to b a completely dry phase that sees off any bad weather, but I do see some precipitation arriving, but I can’t see heavy downpours arriving to bring floods, though it does look as if some parts of the UK could still be dealing with them at the outset due to rains of previous weeks.
Usually we can expect barbecue evenings during the Full Moon stage due to the Moon being high in the sky and warding off any rain attempts sunset to sunrise. I do, for the second half of this, see some seasonal highs arriving around second part of this phase, but some showery spells to keep you from getting too excited!

23rd as above

24th Risk of showers before sunset, but dry afterwards with some clouds, mists or haze around evening

Winds strong gusty and whipping at times NW in direction and varying speed over next few days.

25th Should be some rise in temps today but some static developing with a risk of lightening showers swarming around giving localised quick bursts. The outlook is unsettled with varying cloud cover but some sunshine expected.

26th Temps seasonally warm, some humidity, but should be a fair weather day. Risk of haziness by evening.

27th A bit unsettled but some higher temperatures built up with a risk of quick static localised showery outburst mid morning or just clouds, but temps rise again indicating a strong sunny arrival.

28th Same conditions as yesterday

29th A rainy outlook risk before sunrise continuing a risk to mid day, but after that some finer weather with refreshing air and good atmosphere to get some gardening done.

30th Quick sharp showers, similar to yesterday, around mid day but mostly clear and sunny.

 
30th June-8th July

At first this chart looked like a clearer, warmer phase, but under scrutiny it became more likely that some prolonged rain could arrive to spoil the nicer patterns, so I’m not ruling out higher precip to NE regions and perhaps others, but not as heavy to our region; this outpouring could put drains under stress and bring in some localised flooding around 1st and 2nd…but hopefully I get this completely wrong…

We will get some wet spells W Yorks and Yonder, but also some lovely outbreaks of nice warm summery weather, if not highs as well, for the second half of the phase.
30th As above with some gusty south westerlies around.

1st  Some sporadic sharp showery outbreaks here, but refreshing atmosphere even though dampness prevails, some leaden skies threatening to spoil things a little, with risk of a stormy outlook to NE of us with a risk of prolonged rain or showers keeping the outlook wet here as well. It could feel a little damp and chilly today as well. Showery outlook risks continuing into 2nd.

2nd Calmer outlook with some mists due to showers of yesterday, sultry conditions with potential for showers over higher areas such as the moors or just being surrounded by clouds (always a nice but spooky feeling up on the moors) cool but fresh atmospherics.

3rd Looks less wet, but mid day could see a risk of quick refreshing showery weather, some sun spells to brighten up the outlook.

4th Some cold pockets vying with warmer temps trying to break out, winds are erratic and keep things cool on high and in exposed regions, but there is also a warmer outlook growing stronger today with likelihood of sun spells.

5th NICE summery temps, blue skies and sunshine around, but a risk of quick showery outbursts for us, not sure abut the rest of the UK today though…

6th-8th Looks like the dry weather is more reliable with some nice temperatures and a brilliant atmosphere to enjoy good outdoor activity. 8th brings potential for some rainy stuff….but read on….

 
8th -16th July

I took some time out to look at important features for this chart and found 2 interesting record breaking incidents that wont occur during this phase…hopefully….

We have a similar chart to NM 22 June 1906 when record breaking high temperatures broke out, and though I do expect some nice seasonal highs for this phase, I don’t expect them to reach the same levels as then…..sadly, though we will get some nice warm temps hovering around–HURRAH.

I also took another look at the storm surge to Bristol and the Sun close to Mercury is supposed to bring strong winds, as in 1607, (and many times since then I might add) but I don’t see a similar storm surge, but I’m not ruling out very strong winds out to sea from 7th, and to our region on 9th. Saturn hovers around the west coast of GB from the start so it does look less sunny with lower temps there and winds look set to be strong for NW regions for the first few days, but then Silverdale in the NW can be a real wind tunnel any time of year………………………….

Photographers can expect some good visibility for the first few days as well, so get out your camera.

Temperature wise I expect seasonal highs to break out for the first part of this phase, with cooler temps after 13th
8th Sunshine around during the day with risk of quick scattered showers by evening. Temps should be warm today, the atmosphere should be clear, but cold pockets to exposed regions, and some strong gusty brisk westerlies could ward off the real highs. I do expect some sunshine today…..

9th Looks glorious for us with even higher temps ruling the day but some I’m afraid of a risk of very strong gusts and windy weather around, but this keeps things dry and hurries along any rain clouds that might try to spoil the UV count! Could be news of static outburst to west of us with mists or haze due to warming.

10th Cloudy if no0t gloomy start. More sunshine and some cloud likely but also blue skies around, some static could trigger localised sprays.

11th Temps still seasonally warm and rising, particularly south of us with perhaps lower pressure to the north, with risk of quick localised scattered cloudbursts

12th Things begin to unsettle a little today, temps still fair to moderately high, but could be cooler than previous days , Cloudy if not hazy early in the day and late at night, but fairer outlook during the day, some nebulous breezy conditions also.

13th Seismic conditions to East Asia, Japan regions today, I expect a sunny and warm outlook to prevail, but unsettled atmosphere with stronger N Westerlies

14th Risk of early showery stuff by mid day, but these look heavier to the west, sunny with isolated colder pockets for us in shady places, but less so by mid day.

15th Similar to yesterday with risk of quick sharp showery stuff if not hail by eve and potential for mist or haziness late evening. Breezy if not windy

16th A fair outlook, but very unsettled and lots of static forming, but winds to N West , could even be gales or stormy to highlands and news of thundery outbursts– late evening here>>>>>>>>>>>>>>read on for the next chapter in this weather story………………..

 
16th-22nd July

There are still some lovely almost tropical weather pockets around and Derry in Ireland looks likely to be where some of the good weather is, but so do John o Groats and Glucestershire regions, but this could turn around by 21/22nd when some cracking t/storms break out and some flash flooding is a risk.

I expect high levels of precipitation to arrive, and compete with records for July 2002 when three times the amount of average rainfall broke out and caused floods. I also expect a rash of higher than usual outbreaks of thunder and lightening storms

I’m not too happy with my forecast for this phase due to so many contradictory factors between highs and static outbursts travelling around and they are difficult to follow  demanding a lot of time and more charts which I don’t have time to do, so no promises…………….but for us I do expect heavy rain to hit by 21st but we also get some nice days to enjoy with some good temps, though not as high as previously, but still seasonally pleasant…The 18th-20th look like being more reliable for good weather outcomes

16th-17th Still appears lower temps could be NE, E Anglia looks well served with good weather, some warm weather around our parts creates risk of scattered migrating electrical outbursts overnight into 17th, heavy downpours accompany these, hopefully most of us will sleep through this, but some flash floods may result. Northern areas most prone to these outbreaks; including Scotland. 17th looks fine and sunny with warm temps around to keep us cheered up

18th -22nd Some cooling begins but 19th looks nice fair and sunny whilst 20th seems static with hazes forming, some muggy conditions around today and tomorrow. Some static lightening and thunder outbursts– highly probable over these days. 21st brings in high risk of downpours before or around mid day, these are very heavy as temps begin to rise again and some strong very gusty variable speed N Westerlies. Mid day 21st looks like the sun could shine through with a fine weather outlook for the afternoon, but the evening runs a risk of more heavy rain which could continue into 22nd cooling the atmosphere before sunrise, due to a very unsettled weather system breaking out warning of possible electrical outbursts accompanying rising temps, but the skies could clear easily leaving room for cloud but some sunshine and if you are resuming outdoor activity….take your brolly for these outbursts. Flash floods risk but some very warm trends also and should be a nice evening..read on

 
22nd July-29th July

In my dreams this is summer breaking out with at least barbecue evenings even if there is some cloud around during the day……..BUT, as I said this only happens in my dreams……

This weather phase left me exhausted, as if a tempest passed over! A lot of exciting weather to come.

This is the time of year when the sun is furtherest away from our planet and we often see a drop in temps and bad weather as if even the clouds above are grieving over the fact that school is out!

We do have a perigee on 21st, with Full Moon on 22nd so some of the warmer temps should be ruling both hemispheres. The East of England looks to be getting some fine summer sun with warm trends of summer temps (does it ever rain in Norfolk?) whilst the west is experiencing some low pressure with cooler temps, and this will change completely around by the end of this phase.

There is a risk of flash flooding due to risk of above average but torrential and quickly dispelled cloudbursts, the western regions from Keswick in a line down to Gloucestershire are most vulnerable towards the end of this phase, but Eastern coast of England down to Cambridge and beyond to Kent at the outset get hit by some spectacular lightening electrical storms.

Best headlines seem likely to come in from the West of us….
21-22 as already mentioned this appears to be when cloudburst break in between higher range of temperatures, the east from Whitby, Grimsby to Cambridgeshire and beyond looks the best region for these scattered outbursts, and down to Devon areas there does look to be some conflicting weather systems with electrical outbursts accompanying some lovely warm temps. Expect an unsettled outlook with localise warmth then sudden pockets of cooling after showers for these two days, with lightening showers, heavy at times but very heavy for some as soon as they begin and leaving clearer skies in their wake as they travel onwards. We wont be as badly affected in our region and we can expect some cloudburst but also some sunshine between the clouds, 22nd looks cooler for us, some sun spells expected and a finer evening so get ready for a good evening walk…or drinking al fresco

23rd looks better though some mistiness and hazes could prevail but some sunshine in between with clearer night skies. A risk of a quick spurt of showery stuff before sunrise warmer muggy trends today.

24th Similar to yesterday with shower risk more likely around mid afternoon but it could turn out to be just some cloud coming over. Temps moderate, getting warmth if you see the sun and some southerly flows of weather coming over, gusty breezes at times.

25th Risk of short but heavy showers after start of day and before sunrise but it could just be mists or haze I’m seeing. Milder to cool conditions for the daytime, should be sunshine but cloud around as well. Seems like some pathways could be getting muddy….

26th News of weather system hitting the west today/tomorrow– Cumbria down Welsh borders and up to West of Scotland likely to be facing up to the worst of the weather being seen on satellites, with a risk of some flash floods. Temps very muggy and tropical rains could be localised for some areas inland with easterlies around keeping things a bit broody, and news of mudslides a risk so don’t walk near muddy cliffs or take care on high ground where footpaths need careful scrutiny.

I expect fogs, mists and haze overnight, more predominant to west, after some fairer evening weather for us.

27th Risk of showers for us 5-8am temps more humid than cold,, sun with cloud expected by afternoon, clearer evening sky,some broody easterlies along with southerly flows still knocking around posing a risk of quick showery outbursts which could continue into the next day…

28th A dull start before sunrise. Humidity levels high some mist and haze to west and around watery places and coastal regions, strong winds for some quarters, fine and sunny and warm for the afternoon with sun spells for us, but a quick cloud burst could stop play around 3-6pm but it will leave things feeling fresher afterwards.

29th Sorry but this looks like even more rain increasing risk of flash flooding from west to east and our region. Very windy outlook as well, I can’t rule out some strong winds accompanying weather trends 28th-29th……..wet wet wet…….is the theme but it will clear up the muggy trends and leave the atmosphere refreshed and by late afternoon on 29th it does look like the rains are further east of us leaving us to a drier outlook for the afternoon and eve. Cool temps 29th and we could see some blue skies around with sunshine.

 
29th July- 8th August

Sorry to say my charts look like floods are likely to be continuing from last phase, with more heavy rain to add to the chaos for this phase. Hopefully I’m wrong, but astrologers have a rule, see a thing three times and positively predict,  and there are three signifiers for heavy rain and floods evident, but it could be they are already over by 30th…let’s see…..

29th looks showery adding to high levels already falling, heavier to the north travelling east and causing flash floods…Suffolk looks to be getting some rain today as well Wind activity is easterly so a bit broody weather to be expected.

30th A better outlook, cooler due to rain in previous days, but exhilarating atmosphere with coolness pervading it. Sun with cloud expected.

31st More scattered outbreaks, moderate temps, for the afternoon cloud and quick but heavy showers. Mists haze or cloud by evening some sun might break through.

1st Aug. Risk of showers by breakfast, very unsettled outlook, some muggy conditions and risk of static outbursts today and these may be around very early, milder by middle of day, but it does look like late evening has some lovely clear skies for stargazers such as myself. Some strong gusty N Westerlies around today to keep things drying out

2nd. Moderate temps getting warmer, risk of heavy showers by late evening and into following morning, potentially a fair weather outlook during the afternoon.

3rd Looks like better summer conditions today with any outbursts staying off till evening if they do arrive to your locality.

4th Wind speed increased to eastern parts, but some N Westerlies bring down cooler temps today cool but dry weather, electrical outburst to high regions and northern areas. The afternoon looks cool but with sun spells, cloudier later.

5th Slightly milder today, breezy though could turn out to be a dry fair day with some warmth from sun in the afternoon.

6th 6-8th look like similar to 5th. Fairer days, breezy southerlies around turning NW by 8th, some cooling on 7th but very unsettled outlook for 8th

6th-14th August

Could this be a nice phase???

Although I studied the chart for hours and researched some unusual features in it, I found the outcome so difficult to define and I do not have a lot of confidence in it at all.

When we have a New Moon we normally get the drier weather during the day and any precipitation at evening and overnight. I don’t see excess precipitation for this phase, but the temperatures are not reliable either, nor are reliable unbroken sunny days.

At first the chart looked sunny glorious and warm, and for sure the 10th looks the most likely for this, but there are some dangers of showery and misty weather spoiling continuously clear days or prolonged sunny conditions.

Apologies if this doesn’t work out the way I forecast at this stage long range on  February 20th 2013!

6th-8th look like fine days with some lovely weather to enjoy on 6th as mentioned in previous phase.

8th looks a little more unsettled with more warming around and southerlies

9th seems to have some risk of showery weather but more for the southern regions. Some good visibility around pm and evening with brisk westerlies combining with easterly flows, gusty at times continuing into tomorrow.

10th seems to be very warm and humid and a risk of hazes or mists near watery places and in valleys overnight tonight, temps mild but could be very warm if not very high, generally a fair outlook.

11th Mists and risk of muggy start today but developing into some fair conditions which sees some varying trends on cloud and temps, easterlies and some dull gloomy skies by late afternoon and evening.

12th Some mists or cloud still lingering and today sees high risk of showery weather, but skies clearer by the afternoon.

13th Another showery outlook for today around sunrise, mugginess around from early morning which looks to be quite warm, the afternoon looks better.

14th brings in some gusty westerlies combined with easterlies turning NW by 15th when they promise to get very strong, Sun with cloud expected… read on………….

14th August -21st

Mostly dry with some static outbursts of hail and sharp showers, some mists and some wind disturbances with sporadic static outbursts for 15-16th, these can be heavy to some localities, hail to others and accompanied with thunder and lightening for others. Weather will better to south England and cloudier to the north.

The worst of the weather hits the southern hemisphere for these days….

14th I’m expecting warmth in the sun, temps moderate but rising gently, fresh atmosphere, with fleecy clouds, but some unsettled winds begin to come in

15th Erratic and gusty if not high speed to north west, this can bring a sudden drop to bring in colder temps to high ground and exposed areas. Clearer skies by late evening, fresh atmosphere white fluffy clouds in blue sky, but a risk of localised and sporadic hail or sharp shower weather due to clash with warm and cold air as warned in the introduction.

16th Cooler outlook some scattered electrical showers, risk of high speed winds and or gales for some regions, acute and sharp cutting gusty westerlies along with scattered static outbursts.

17th similar to yesterday but winds less volatile, still some unsettled conditions but a cool sunny outlook could prevail with some gusty weather.

18th Similar to yesterday with some warmth from sun at mid day but a risk of a shower to freshen things up

19th and 20th localised showery outlook rising temps by 20th calm with potential for mists to form particularly likely early on 20th, due to high humidity, but by late evening on 20th some fair weather outlook some cloud around.

21st More winds likely, high speed to high locations, cool outlook though some warmth during the day, static sporadic outbursts can arrive to keep temps on the lower side, better outlook by evening read on

 
21st 28th August

Cooler temperatures begin to arrive, with some mizzles drizzles for us, as well as some mists and fogs. The whole of the UK sees rain moving around 21st-22nd and some strong winds are expected keeping temps low even if the sun does try to shine. East Anglia looks to get some of the highs that remain on a diagonal flow up to NW Scotland from the outset, and the NW region Cumbria could also see some of these but a risk of fogs and mists arises from this system following the trail of any warmth.

21st-22nd Rapid static outbursts of sleet and sharp showers, high velocity winds with rain heavier to southern areas, radio disturbances from previous days continue for a few more days accompanying static outbursts. Northerlies operate trying to ward off heavier downfalls and the evening on 21st looks like some sunshine gives us a pleasanter evening. Overall the outlook is cool with winds much stronger and erratic by 22nd onwards accompanying rainfall circulating the UK.

23rd Intermittent short sharp showers, hail to some localities short sharp and swift, cutting but some blue skies and sun spells likely but very cold temps for us.

24th Very cold pockets , similar to yesterday more cloud around by late evening, if not mists and fogs.

25th Humidity high, clouds and risk of fog, damp conditions with mizzles and drizzly outbursts, winds very strong gusty westerlies, sudden localised squalls break out along canal banks and river ways in valleys, localised but very strong and can last up to one or two hours before settling down. Patchy fog and mists likely especially by late evening when they can be thicker creating transport probs due to low visibility.

26th Cloudy dull with easterlies early in the morning looking broody, a cold outlook, but some fairer outlook by mid day, sun with cloud around, risk of a sudden outbursts of localised sleet and hailstorms late afternoon, cold evening and could be some frost to wake up to next day

27th The outlook is clearer for today fairer weather to the north, some cloud to start with but clearing and a fresher atmosphere but some unsettled if not stormy conditions to follow……….

 
28th August -5th September

I get to this stage realising I try so hard to find some glorious uninterrupted sunny spells that it would be nice to just ignore the bad bits and pretend the highs that appear in some of the charts this phase, will not be interrupted by anything windy or wet…….in your dreams..
East Anglia to Kent look set to get some lovely highs, but then they always do……the best of the temps for the ending of summer occur mid ocean half way between Hull and Rotterdam, so book your ferry now……..
Back here in W Yorks and yonder, a different picture emerges, but we do get some warm weather if not constantly sunny days to come and the 5th does look rather pleasant……

28th –30th have high humidity with likelihood of fogs by night, with mists and hazes hanging around threatening to obscure the sunshine by day. Some breeziness turning easterly and broody on 29th. The 30thwith winds turn strong, erratic and very speedy at times, and gusty turning westerly then northerly by late at night on 30th, fetching some coolness down from the north. Cloudiness forming during the day on 3oth, and a risk of rain coming in with the winds, the northerlies clear skies overnight into early start 31st producing some white woolly clouds and clearer skies for early morning 31st, and late at night promises better conditions for the south of our region, but cloudier the further north you get,

31st During the day looks like seeing a risk of static outbursts, sporadic potential for localised thunderstorms for some regions, these cloudbursts look sporadic for us during the day and late at night.

1st-5th Rain travelling south to east regions but we could see some heavy outbursts by late evening on 1st for W Yorks regions.

2nd onwards look like better days some mists and hazes could linger but temps set to still be summery and warm but humid 4th onwards, and a fine evening looks to break out on 4th. It looks breezier for this half with things cooling a little at night with air frosts likely overnight. 3rd is static hazy and humid with some darker clouds forming mid day, better weather by evening with a crisp and fresher outlook. 5th looks lovely at this stage….and from yesterday we could be in for those fine evenings when people sit out and enjoy convivial refreshment al fresco…..but read on>>>>>

 
5th-12th September

This looks like a drier phase with some sunshine around to remind us of summer. There are echoes of September 2011 when we had a heatwave for the last throes of summer, but don’t expect that on this occasion, and remember that there were some very strong winds around as well as rain as a result of that unusually warm weather.

Overall this phase looks drier until we get to the 10th when some precipitation looks likely to come in from the western parts hitting them worse than our region. Some strong winds could create problems for some regions for this phase also.

5th-6th Looks fair for us with some fine seasonally high temps on 5th, but there can also be sudden drops in temperatures so don’t take any warmth from the sun for granted, and if you are fell walking the drops will hit the tops first before descending downwards to valleys where areas in shadow will feel chilly. Cloudiness could set in from late evening on 6th

7th looks cloudy from the turn of the day but then it looks better from perhaps sunrise with some fair weather beckoning you into outdoor activity for the morning of the day and beyond with some warmth from the sunshine, but with some gusty outbursts.

8th A misty or cloudy start, lower temps and risk of some dullness but some sun spells expected for the afternoon, more cloudy possibly misty again by late evening.

9th A breezy outlook with some trends for more turbulent weather for some regions with strong gusty winds. Sun with cloud for the early part of the day, some warmth from sun, but clouds forming late evening warn of rain risk ahead.

10th-12th Strong, breezy if not windy, a fair start to the day on 10th but things getting duller as day progresses with a risk of rain arriving later in the afternoon and evening with more precipitation likely on following days. Some mists near waterways can be expected.

 
12th-19th September

The weather gets very busy for this phase and my satellite technology shows highs reigning across from Cornwall to the N E coast at Whitby, and anyone on that line across England can expect the best of a mini heatwave for a couple of days.

12th-13th Temperatures may be a little bit lower to the east to start with where some NW keep things cool, but some blue skies are left behind in their wake leaving a warm glow in the sunshine. I expect a little cloud to form by evening, but we should see some sunshine breaking out all over.

14th Today sees more highs but unsettled with likelihood of some quick static outbursts of hail and sleet in response to higher temps on previous days. It is calm misty/cloudy and sultry to begin the day, gusty North Westerlies rev up and can become strong for some regions in exposed areas to the west and north, mid day should be fine for us with a risk of showery outbreaks to high places. I’ll be looking to see if we get Fohn winds at this time of the phase, these are nice warm breezes that feel like someone left the hair drier on…..the hail storms are more likely late afternoon and evening. I do expect sunshine for daytime.

15th-16th is when the fun starts, but there should still be sunshine around the middle of the day on 15th. We can expect some static outbursts with scattered hailstorms late afternoon becoming strong overnight, with severe outbursts scattered, sporadic and intermittent, more intense to NW and Scotland as a cold front comes in to fight with the sultry conditions of previous days. Some strong gusty winds of varying speed with a breeding ground for localised tornadic outbursts, these storms can affect comms systems and air travel. There should be some blue skies around as well during the daytime.

17th shows very strong gusty westerlies, a mild start but much cooler by late afternoon with an unsettled outlook due to fast moving clouds which may prevent sun from getting through

18th-19th Stormy weather can be moving northwards, broody easterlies with risk of fogs and mists, and to be honest it does look like some heavy rain begins to fall late afternoon and evening on 18th, if it doesn’t then I’m just looking at some very dull leaden skies with risk of drizzle and mizzly stuff and cooler northerlies breaking out on 19th trying to clear things up. The NW looks to be worst hit by the precipitation on these days.