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SUMMER WEATHER 2016 West Yorkshire and Yonder

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Bluebell revellers     Long Range Summer Forecast 2016 West Yorkshire and Yonder UK

 

These forecasts are delivered using ancient satellite technology, tried and tested for millennia and results from such usage first recorded on Antelope Tusks a couple of millennia ago, with method used still working and used by many skilled astro meteorologists who deliver very accurate long range seasonal forecasts for you to plan your season with.

 

 

 

peekabooSUMMER WEATHER 20016 Overview

Summer Season with some highs to come but interrupted by bad bits. 27th June -4th July sees some highs arriving but quick flash floods to some areas as a result. . The real high seem likely to develop for W Yorks by  30th-31st July and 30th August.

 

Around 14th July tell me if you get the tornado or wind funnel I forecast, for as they are not as spectacular as those in Tornado Alley, US, too few of these get reported in the UK, yet we know they arrive here.

 

I also see a seismic event for UK around 12th July, so will be watching for news of this as well as for 2nd-10th August showing a seismic outlook for the UK with 1W45 long from Shetland down to W Sussex singled out for source of origin, not sure which latitude but both extremes vulnerable Shetland region gets my vote. Some rumblings of tectonic plates to Celtic Sea also.

Meanwhile Papua New Guinea is exposed to seismicity this phase too.153E30 I’ll be watching out for this one.

26th July-2nd August sees more summer highs but also a drill, spill and kill incident somewhere off either the West of Orkney, the Tay region or Caernarfon area,  3 deg west longitude. 18th-25th August repeats DRILLS, SPILLS and KILLS again, yes it’s that time of year.  Offshore W of Shetland, to North Sea and offshore to English Channel 1-2 W long, but may be felt down t/out GB.I expect a few cetaceans on beach too……………………Apologies for so little time to track this and be more specific and to be truthful I always hope I am totally wrong about such forecasts……………………

Heavy rains expected to hit the west by 24th August travelling to W Yorks by 25th with highs following as mentioned earlier.

Venus at equinox 1st September augurs  early Autumn cooling, followed by the traditional cyclical start of the Autumn 22nd  Sept at Sun’s equinox seeing very heavy rain arriving.

 

Pendragon arch

20th-27th June

 

The good news is this solstice, a beautiful Azores High is forming out in the Atlantic, so book a plane for there now….because the bad news is off the West coast of England a low is developing, stopping the high from coming our way. Oh dear..

 

Solstice day usually does bring some unsettled weather and 2016 summer solstice day 20th,  is no exception.

 

However, as it operates on a Full Moon day, we can expect some better conditions in the evenings of the first few days at least, but don’t put your brolly to bed just yet. Some disturbances at high altitudes mean the Helm Winds can knock you back on High Cup Nick, Pennine, Moor, or mountain pathways, and radio hams could find disturbances from static in isolated spots. Air and water travel may also see some rocky moments as highs vie with lows, and winds are erratic.

Seasonal temps expected to vary, but on the cool side to begin the season, and likely as not, throughout.

20th  Some lows with easterly gloom round, but generally unsettled outlook today as solsticial atmospherics rule. Some rain could be moving eastwards and some mists to valleys and lowlands expected. A few northerly attempts to try clear away any gloom and cloud, but I don’t expect persistent sun today.

21st Temps varying, some showery attempts likely but brief and scattered, cloud around too. Better by evening.

22nd Temps varying again, but cooler range prevail. High humidity, static  but some sunny intervals as clouds scurry by.

23rd Potentially the best date to warm your hands on the evening barbecue, sun, cloud around during the day.

24th Not much change from yesterday but could be more clouds to west and potential for a few showery bits over here too.

25th Looks like the threat of heavy showers begins to actualise today and on 26th.

26th I expect some heavy showers from mid morning and some strong whippy westerlies come in with these.

27th Sees the moon on the equator so weather patterns continue eastwards for a few days, but temps will begin to feel more summery from now on. Very sporadic winds with gusts and high speed on exposed areas, see the intro again for warnings given.  Cloud around but winds trying to move them on.

Pendragon unpenned sheep

27th June-4th July

I expect some record highs for the season along with thundery and lightening outbreaks which will accompany heat moving northwards over coming eight days. Thunderstorms travel east. Any sudden heavy downpours will make way for brighter conditions, with flash floods to valleys expected to quickly pass over on western areas.

Mists and cloud predominantly in western shores. 30th looks the best of this block of weather outcomes.

 

27th  Sultry but winds are still high, gusty on high pathways, in the north mostly.

Intermittent sudden sporadic showery outbursts midnight to early am 28th.

28th and 29th look like the thundery outburst arrive after midnight as temps rise. West Yorks is in their pathway so I don’t expect to escape the onslaught. The days clear by mid day, so afternoons and evenings are generally better for outdoors.

30th Fingers crossed all signs are for a more serene and reliable outlook with temps rising and some sunny weather to enjoy today and for 1st.

2nd Sultry, humid with temps still rising, could bring another static outburst early am before sunrise, not ruling out thunderstorms either, and rainy stuff on 3rd for many areas W Y and far beyond.

3rd –4th Little breeze but some blue skies likely once the wet stuff goes, slowly cooling after 4th.

 

The arches

4th-12th July

Highs stay in the Mid Atlantic sadly and weather systems in GB begin their journey from NW to SE over this phase.

Looks like some pollution across Europe continues to make its presence felt east of our borders (have we got any?)

Heavy outbursts of rain could hit NW regions of England and beyond but may not result in heavy flooding.

 

4th-5th Could see rain breaking out, heavy at times to NW and west coast regions, and low lying areas. Mists accompany. Fairer to the north with any residual storms of last phase slowly dying as they move SE direction.

6th Some noisy eerie breezy stuff but fair conditions for us and any rainy bits to the west begin to fizzle out as they travel over to our way and S. Easterly

7th  Less windy, some clearing skies, but temps on the cool side and any scattered outbreaks will be brief sporadic and around mid morning.

8th Northerlies active and clearing up conditions, some gloomy weather to the west, clouds mists to the east but better outlook by mid day, cloudier evening.

9th Dry day with sunshine and sweet breezes

10th Some gusty winds about today, westerly, some quick showery bursts could accompany, cooling temps, cloudy am but some sun spells.

11th Strong NW winds arise taking weather down south with it. Spurts of very gusty winds on high lands. Some cloud breaks with sun spells with this system.

12th Still windy, cooler and cloud around much like yesterday.

Pendragon's View

12th-19th July

 

Breezy windy, wet, cooler, highs to SW travelling further southwards. Unsettled for a few days with potential tornado or wind funnel to Midlands.

Could be a seismic event for us around the 12th too.

 

12th  Very unsettled atmosphere with potential rainy outbursts. Cloud around and mists lingering to some areas. Any rain arrives late evening.

13th Scattered showers before sunrise have a cooling effect on temps, sun plus cloud during the day, clearing skies by evening, but cloudier 9-10pm onwards and rain falling, mists likely.

14th Unsettled again, winds gusty westerly, tornado or wind spouts expected today to NE Scotland and or Midlands. Winds stronger on high ground to North Sunshine and cloud, dry but short scattered spells of rain by 8pm onwards.

15th Some gusty stuff, clearer skies, cool start early am. Showery by 9-10 am but soft breezes for us to dry out  by mid day. Some lightening releases static. Sun and clouds around.

17th Cool overnight into early am, more mod after sunrise and looks like weather stays to be fair for next few days…HURRAH!

High Cup Wine

26th July– 2nd August

 

This phase sees a drill, spill and kill incident somewhere off either the West of Orkney, the Tay region or Caernarfon area,  3 deg west longitude.

 

I always wonder when forecasting these, how much sperm whales and dolphins cost to replace….

The three quarter moon often brings in turbulence so best not book a getaway but even if I’m too late with the warning , all wont be lost with some good days to brighten up the phase.

Not a bad week for a British summer, when all is taken into consideration, but some interruptions of good weather expected, but they will be quick unless otherwise forecast. 29th singled out for rainy stuff and 30th-31st gets the highs.

Highs roll out in style to the east of GB, but inland there will be some developing too, with 30th singled out for our region.

Some sudden changes in temps can vary them over the phase so be assured that if it gets cool after rain the sun will soon return to warm you up again.

These are the high temps of Dog Days when Romans were aware there could be searing heat, prolonged, but difficult if on a war march. Hard times  for dogs too if tarmac or concrete gets hot, so take care of your dog and don’t leave it in the car on hot days.

A quick tour of these days:

Looks good fine and summery 26th- 28th, with sudden abrupt wind changes and erratic gusts kicking in by 27th

28th looks potentially showery with potential for sporadic isolated hail and sleet, but these won’t stay around and often leave sunny skies in their wake.

29th Oh dear I can guarantee rain, for many GB places in the form of scattered electrical showers. Some energetic gusties around too, with high spots and high altitudes affected.

30th continues as yesterday but the highs are high today, so some good temps as well as sunshine

31st The heat continues

1st August rain potential…sorry this always happens after a hot spell doesn’t it, but it won’t stay around, by sunset it will be better, but sunshine around as well today. Hail and sleet spells look likely to interrupt play and I’m not ruling out quick smattering of snow on very high northern parts……lots of condensation around due to cold air at start of day.

2nd New Moon, good weather sunrise to sunset usually but let’s look at the charts and see shall we……read on

Dufton views

2nd-10th August

A seismic outlook for the UK with 1W45 long from Shetland down to W Sussex singled out for source of origin, not sure which latitude but both extremes vulnerable Shetland region gets my vote. Some rumblings of tectonic plates to Celtic Sea also.

Meanwhile Papua New Guinea is exposed to seismicity this phase too.153E30 I’ll be watching out for this one.

2nd unsettled outlook as seismicity rules, temps still summery but cooling

3rd Sun and cloud around

4th-5th same as yesterday temps still lowering

6th no rain today…..hopefully….can’t see any….weather continues a downward trend..

7th some threat of precipitation with  NW more likely region for it

8th winds around or breezes blowing clouds over bog standard weather for next few days as systems migrate into southern regions.

 

Gameside Stone Circle

10th-18th August

 

Just a quick tour for these days.

I’m not expecting a run of good weather, in fact some rainy spells could linger 11-12th early am -mid day time,  and arrive again  by 17th with temps cooling as a result. The 12th sees wet weather moving southwards as the low sinks, and

cool temps rule. The 13th sees the weather attempt to clean up a little after mid day. I don’t expect highs this phase, but very ordinary summer season weather.

13th-14th seems like  the best of the bunch with some blue skies and broken cloud, expect good conditions for photography, but rain could break out on high places inland, with mists around watery places. Some calmer spells around for these days.

15th16th uneventful but 16th-17th could see some hail or sporadic outbursts early am, though some clearer skies with sun spells later.

Derwent Water18th-25th August

DRILLS, SPILLS and KILLS again, yes it’s that time of year.

Offshore W of Shetland, to North Sea and offshore to English Channel 1-2 W long, but may be felt down t/out GB

I expect a few cetaceans on beach too……………………

Temps being climbing but don’t expect too much. Worst of weather to second half of phase.

 

Barbecue time for first few days, but get the heater out……………..

18th-19 th Erratic NW, gusty on high ground, sunshine with clouds scurrying by.

20th -21st Unsettled sunshine, clouds and sporadic short sharp showers around but they won’t linger. Midnight to mid day is likeliest time, evenings generally brighter after 8pm.  22nd sees some rise in temps but this brings some static outbursts along with it

23rd better outlook but don’t take any good weather for granted

24-25th Much friction weather wise with highs battling lows, warmer outlook but some very heavy rain to west travels this way by 25th. The NW Cumbria, Scotland and Wales get the worst of the downpours from 24th.

25th August -1st Sept

 

Guaranteed, no Azores High, BUT, temp do get pleasantly better than last week and we have at least 2 glorious days to come in this phase.

Some squally conditions continue at the start with high altitudes most affected. These will die down after first 2 days.

 

 

25th, as above but this could pass over by late pm, so not all the day is lost, some blue sky and cloud could make itself felt.

26th Humidity rules after rainy cloud burst around mid night, but the day may develop into a better one as a result, There is a counter clockwise flow of static which delivers quick sometimes heavy. downpours for a few days, but looks like ours is over and done with early this morning.

27th Very high seasonal temps today HURRAH the glorious weather arrives so put on your summer stuff to make the most of it over next few days…………………..

30th could see mists and haze coming out in response o higher temps with 31st being sultry. Slight cooling by 1st…….

purple rain1st -9th Sept

Apologies for a quick tour, time restrictions apply…..

Pollution rests out in the Atlantic, probably residue from the drills spills and kills I mentioned earlier.

Venus is  equinoctial on 1st, but seems likely to affect us with hazes and more cloud around but by 7th she heralds lower temps with a cold front….

 

1st As previous, cool, rain in East still continuing, a fair day could break out in W Yorks

2nd Dry day, mists and hazes with sun behind cloud and some strong northerlies around

3rd brighter outlook

4th Rain, heavy at times from mid morning into afternoon

5th Mists, cloud and haze sun spells …perhaps

6th Sporadic rain, hail and sleet spells by 10pm, cloud around some sun spells during day

7th Cold front keeping things chilly less sunshine to keep us warm

8th unsettled but it will rain for sure

9th Rain likely to NW and strong high altitude winds running around icy on high places, gusty in stages

walking tree

9th-16th Sept

Misty to Western regions and flash floods could be circulating as lowlands receive some heavy rainfall

9th Rain could be continuing from 8th until early morning, but drier outlook for later in the day

10th Cool, cloudy some northerlies trying to clear away the bad outbreak.

11th Cloud, potentially some sunshine but better by evening

 

12th Gusty some haze and mists around and lingering, spartan intermittent showers around mid am and later, but some sun spells too as gusts scurry clouds along.

13th Static, hail or sleet short and sharp overnight better outlook from  mid day.

14th Rain to North clouds, some sunshine late afternoon after sporadic showers.

15th  Rain coming could see some sun with clouds.

 

 

16th -22nd

The Full Moon will clear away the worst of the weather with some fairer evenings to enjoy, though the outlook is not good. I expect heavy levels of rain, more flash floods and a gloomy time.

21st will rain all day………………………………..and 22nd is equinoctial so very unsettled…..lots of wet stuff about.

 

I expect at least 80% + accuracy, and could do better if days were on 72 hours long…….sigh………………..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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SUMMER 2015 West Yorks N Yonder UK Weather Brief

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Your Summer Weather Forecast for 2015 W Yorks N Yonder UK

Rock carvings Langdale

Rock carvings Langdale

Apologies to those trying to visit over the past few weeks, but due to some unagreed interference with acceptable transmission of my work and mega plagiarism and reuse  of it,  I have had to temporarily offer only private access to my site. Hopefully this can now change.

This is a quick tour of the weather for W Yorks and Yonder for summer 2015 where yet again I haven’t analysed wind charts nor have I gone into my usual detailed accounting of daily weather patterns but hopefully the forecast wont be too far out and should yield at least 70-80% general accuracy. I am quite pleased with the results of my Spring tour this year which did deliver often 100% accuracy and mostly 85-90% accuracy for my region.

I should advise I normally look at daytime weather rather than overnight conditions, due to most people wanting to know which days are best for outings etc.

I will try and post the August weather trends sometime soon folks………….Enjoy this summer for it could begin to develop into colder summers to come……more of this later.

24th June-2nd July

Potentially seismic outbursts to East China Sea area between Japanese and Chinese/Shanghai region, watch out for this +/- 2 days 24th June

Meanwhile back in W Yorks it looks like some gusty and varying easterlies are around, mostly affecting western regions.

The pattern is optimistic weather wise, if not cause for racing outside and shouting ”hurrah” as it looks likely the week will progress into some gorgeous if not fabulous weather with clear electric blue skies, great photography weather and time to go paragliding, ballooning, fly your kite or just get out into the great outdoors to enjoy the summer conditions.
Temps will be above seasonal ave, while those of you walking the Pennines or peaks will find some cooler temps telling you to walk faster to keep warm, but put your sun hat on and watch it doesn’t get blown away by some gusty cheeky breezes on high.
The only cloud on the horizon is around 30th when some cloud could bring in sporadic showery stuff coming in from the west but don’t worry it wont be enough to spoil things for long. The 1/2nd could see some mists in valleys overnight to early morning near river valleys, humidity levels high overnight with some cloud stopping warmth from escaping our terrestrial atmosphere.

2nd –8th July

I haven’t even bothered delivering the usual analysis for this phase, with two major benefics showing a wonderful combi for all to enjoy in our part of the world, I expect fabulous weather described earlier to continue…the temp highs come later folks and will be worth waiting for unless I see thundery outburst to accompany, watch this space….

8th-16th July
Wow! The only blot on the horizon is some polluting influence, not sure how air based it is, this is due to temps climbing and aggravating conditions for those who have breathing disorders.

The 9th could bring some sporadic showery outbursts, over as fast as they begin, localised hail outbursts likely if they do arrive, mostly to the west of our regions but could spill out over here too, whilst 11th cloud see some precip, but I doubt it will last long, and will provide a welcome breath of fresh air as well as relief for thirsty hard working plants, though of course it will keep the atmosphere cooler. So expect a refreshing downpour.

The East coast looks like getting the real highs of summer this week, however this could also bring in some sea frets potentially spoiling the view at Whitby 13th-16th, but the south westerly region also looks hot, hot, hot, but most of Britain benefits from a lovely summer outbreak of rising temps with some showery outbreaks moving around but not spoiling things too much. The 16th potentially brings in some clear skies and sunny weather for us but I’m not ruling out some scattered hail outbursts in some localities….

summer flowers astro meteorology16th-24th July

Azores highs seem likely to continue for a few more days at least, always a welcome trend in summer, even though there may also be some showery outbursts and cloud forming as a result of static building as the week progresses. Expect an Azores high building to peak around 14th.
Mars and Mercury combine by 16th to bring in some fast, furious and gusty westerlies, so at least they will move any clouds quickly onwards. There will be turbulence out to sea with this influence- the mid Atlantic suspect, could even be refugees fleeing over sea to Americas.
More clouds to the east at the start of the phase, with potential for quick hail or sporadic showery stuff around mid day on 17th for us, earlier for areas to the west of us, that’s lakes, and further to Wales etc whilst on 18th this is further to the eastern areas where more gloom and cloud are likely, but this could gradually travel east our way on following days.

Some gusty N Westerlies continue keeping temps cool on 18th, getting more hectic and speedy by 19th. By 23rd we can expect some breezy, gusty weather sometimes very brisk and breezy, particularly on high spots and this will create disturbances for air transport, air temps decline and lowering……this system should die off by 20th bringing us up to 21st and onwards into following days when fair weather prevails but with lowering temps.
Sunshine is likely to be around in occasional outbursts rather than prolonged uninterrupted levels 23rd/24th are very unsettled.

24th-31st July

Some mists, cloud and gloom around so don’t expect a brilliant week ahead and scattered thunderstorms could circulate, but haven’t time to track these. Some subterfuge being hidden away on the high seas as well……

Doesn’t look good at all really.. Some fair conditions at the start, but very unsettled, with some easterly gloom hovering further east and threatening to rain on our parade potentially around 26th when it looks likely to be heavier to the east but travelling back our way. Cooling breezes stubbornly refuse to give way to summer from the start. Mists prevail to the NE regions, more heat to areas far south for this phase.

Temps bottom out by 28th while whippy westerlies keep things lively, so no hope of a sunbathe; I also expect some thundery outbursts mostly East/South/N East. Things look to go downhill 29th-31st and farmers struggle to keep haystacks dry, while fruits need careful watching under some unwelcome broody damp weather.

31st also brings in more breezy conditions to keep things cool but 31st things will be humid and still damp but with a promise of better weather ahead….or not..

Prettiest Viallge in Yorkshire Dales

Prettiest Village in Yorkshire Dales

UK SUMMER WEATHER 2013 West Yorks and Yonder Long Range Forecast

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astrometeorology

Long Range Weather Forecasting that Doesn’t Cost the Earth

 

 

In February I published my Spring Forecast on my blogs at www.amazingweather.wordpress.com  so please visit there to keep up with the Spring long range forecast, also on www.ukweatherbrief.wordpress.com   where you can read feedback on previous season accuracy to verify results.

I realise some parts of W Yorks will often have rainfall or more sunshine than other parts, and due to such micros operating it is difficult to locate and forecast these within only one or two miles of each other, hence discrepancies often operating between my forecasting and localised weather micros throughout the region. Happily this is a rare perhaps once a month event, leaving an overall  reasonable reliability for our regional long range outcomes.
Introduction Summer 2013 UK W Yorks and Yonder

First of all I do have to write an explanation of why it is difficult delivering 100 per cent accurate forecasts for one region such as W Yorks. For 18th March, for example,  I had forecast it to be a fine start with hail before sunrise, but some mists and fogs to some localities. My locality had fogs, mists and continuous thin snow showers from very early am, clearly fulfilling the warning of fogs to some localities. I haven’t had time to see if anywhere in W Yorks got the fine start with hail, to test the fullness of the forecast. However, another forecast for 8th March was for a localised outbreak of hail and sleet, but sunshine and clear skies, cold temps and strong gusty winds. Instead we got thick cloud, gloomy, drizzly stuff with fogs later in the evening, so not a good forecast for my locality at all. HOWEVER, just a mile away, still in W Yorks going over to Otley the mists cleared to high visibility and finer weather conditions on this day, which is the locality for where my forecast was accurate. Otley and Addingham and other W Yorks towns, often deliver little micros that are difficult to pin down, and there is little I can do to prevent their weather often showing up stronger than that of other W Yorks regions on  around 10 per cent of occasions. This is one reason why I don’t promise 100 per cent accuracy for my outcomes.

Summer brings six planets to the northern hemisphere so summer should have some seasonally warm temps, but 2011 had some 6 planets in the north and that brought some colder conditions comparing it to 1993 which was very very cold with only three planets north. In August Venus moves south taking spring to their hemisphere early and perhaps auguring an earlier Autumn for us.

Junes seems to begin a cycle of flooding till 22nd July when it looks at this stage as if a heatwave arrives, but don’t raise your hopes too high! Nice temperatures look set to break out for the first part of July 8th-14th approximately depending on where in the UK you live.

So we seem to begin the summer with dangers of floods for the first half followed by either a heatwave or some hot summer temperatures bringing in cracking thunderstorms. I can guarantee the thunderstorms breaking out, but not for exact locations as they will be moving around quite rapidly on occasions.……..make sure your tent is waterproofed and earthed!  Mid July to end of August shows t/storms and lightening proliferating as temps get high and humid with a lot of static around.

22nd to 29th July looks a little tempestuous after some warm summer temps create a risk of static discharge and floods are likely to be in the news. This phase is reminiscent of April 2000 when rainfall was above average but Ireland got an unbeatable low of -8.2 degrees C. I don’t think we’ll be beating that temp, as this phase does look warmer than that! The eastern coast will be hit by scattered electrical outbursts from the start. Cumbria but mostly Eng/Welsh border does look vulnerable at this phase by 28-29th, so do some parts of Scotland, so I will be watching the news for outcomes. Also, we can expect news of some serious religious, financial and commercial discord at this time, with clergy and bankers as well as corporates under attack. News of more terrorist activity is also likelihood and I will be looking out for news of the sea–perhaps more piracy out there for this time of the year.
I took the following info about similar patterns for 3-4th July 2002 from the MET site to show you how this phase could pan out, as similar conditions prevail for this phase.
‘’Mean temperatures generally close to average across the whole of the UK. A very wet month across most parts, with some areas receiving three times their normal rainfall.

At Leuchars it was the wettest July since records began in 1922, with 145.8 mm. Temperatures touched 33 °C at Northolt on the 29th, with 83 mm at Marham, Norfolk on the 30th.

England and Wales diary of highlights

Unsettled and chilly first half followed by a warm dry spell, then more changeable. Hot and thundery later with some downpours and local flooding. Fresher closing days.

1st to 12th Unsettled and cool with frequent outbreaks of rain as low-pressure systems and their associated fronts traversed the region. Most days were decidedly wet especially in central and southern areas of England. The rain was often heavy and accompanied by thunder, the latter being reported on the 2nd, 3rd and 5th. Thundery showers also affected a number of places on the 10th to 12th.’’

 
Summer 2013 daily long range forecasts

 
16th-23rd June

This phase spans the solstice and with Glastonbury running this year, we normally expect mud baths and lots of wellies around to add to the fun of the festival……..I would have to spend a few hours with the special chart for Glastonbury to see whether it is likely to happen this way this year….though I haven’t looked up the date, though usually it occurs at the solstice. (Just took a look 26th-30th June…errmmmm looks like they got a proper forecast to help eliminate the usual solsticial mud bath then:-)
Certainly the weather is unsettled from 20th-22nd, and there is a high risk of mists and mugginess ruling off the west coast of Ireland and GB, and I hope this doesn’t spell more sea disasters to west of Ireland, as this chart I am looking at has echoes of November 2011 when a huge wave tipped over a boat off the coast, leaving six men in the water. This event could precede this weather during squalls of last phase, but better safe than sorry, as some strong gusty weather continues from last phase into 16th and 17th and some UK wide localised scattered thunderstorms could break out during this phase 16th-23rd, difficult to track as they will travel around.

Mistiness can break out over watery places in valleys and days around the solstice are likely candidates.

On a more positive note, temperatures look more summery for this time of the year as the sun makes a move into our hemisphere, but around 20th-22nd this produces unsettled weather

16th Sees temps rising but some very brisk gusty winds could keep things seasonally cool. Variable cloudiness, particularly over to the west of us, with a risk of heavy rainfall by very late evening. Some West NW gales or strong gusty conditions around some parts as well.

17th Temps warmer today, warmer still to eastern parts, with some nebulous wind spurts, and it looks like a dry day

18th Another dry day expected, variable cloud around but temps cooler than previous days.

19th Cloudy start likely but clearing to bring in a sunnier afternoon, this looks like a nice day with some nice blue skies to enjoy….

20th Unsettled weather today with a risk of early morning showers around and more risk of showers by evening, breezy outlook.

21st A lot more cloud around today, early and by evening, with light haze and mists to distant view and high ground and near watery places, some drizzly outbursts localised not for all areas W Yorks and yonder. To be honest I’m not ruling out a quick sleet or snow attempt either…

22nd High humidity likely trend, with quick outbursts of hard hitting precip very early am and near sunrise, cloud with sunshine expected.

23rd It looks rainy to far west of us before sunrise, and this could travel over to some parts of our region, and could even be a continuation of showery stuff from the night before, this looks like wafting in a cooler outlook, some sunshine could break out, but read on>>>>>>>>>>

23rd June -30th

High temperatures look likely to break out to the West of Ireland and Scotland’s West coast might benefit too for a change, helping them eliminate the gloomy conditions formerly reigning over there.

This could turn out to b a completely dry phase that sees off any bad weather, but I do see some precipitation arriving, but I can’t see heavy downpours arriving to bring floods, though it does look as if some parts of the UK could still be dealing with them at the outset due to rains of previous weeks.
Usually we can expect barbecue evenings during the Full Moon stage due to the Moon being high in the sky and warding off any rain attempts sunset to sunrise. I do, for the second half of this, see some seasonal highs arriving around second part of this phase, but some showery spells to keep you from getting too excited!

23rd as above

24th Risk of showers before sunset, but dry afterwards with some clouds, mists or haze around evening

Winds strong gusty and whipping at times NW in direction and varying speed over next few days.

25th Should be some rise in temps today but some static developing with a risk of lightening showers swarming around giving localised quick bursts. The outlook is unsettled with varying cloud cover but some sunshine expected.

26th Temps seasonally warm, some humidity, but should be a fair weather day. Risk of haziness by evening.

27th A bit unsettled but some higher temperatures built up with a risk of quick static localised showery outburst mid morning or just clouds, but temps rise again indicating a strong sunny arrival.

28th Same conditions as yesterday

29th A rainy outlook risk before sunrise continuing a risk to mid day, but after that some finer weather with refreshing air and good atmosphere to get some gardening done.

30th Quick sharp showers, similar to yesterday, around mid day but mostly clear and sunny.

 
30th June-8th July

At first this chart looked like a clearer, warmer phase, but under scrutiny it became more likely that some prolonged rain could arrive to spoil the nicer patterns, so I’m not ruling out higher precip to NE regions and perhaps others, but not as heavy to our region; this outpouring could put drains under stress and bring in some localised flooding around 1st and 2nd…but hopefully I get this completely wrong…

We will get some wet spells W Yorks and Yonder, but also some lovely outbreaks of nice warm summery weather, if not highs as well, for the second half of the phase.
30th As above with some gusty south westerlies around.

1st  Some sporadic sharp showery outbreaks here, but refreshing atmosphere even though dampness prevails, some leaden skies threatening to spoil things a little, with risk of a stormy outlook to NE of us with a risk of prolonged rain or showers keeping the outlook wet here as well. It could feel a little damp and chilly today as well. Showery outlook risks continuing into 2nd.

2nd Calmer outlook with some mists due to showers of yesterday, sultry conditions with potential for showers over higher areas such as the moors or just being surrounded by clouds (always a nice but spooky feeling up on the moors) cool but fresh atmospherics.

3rd Looks less wet, but mid day could see a risk of quick refreshing showery weather, some sun spells to brighten up the outlook.

4th Some cold pockets vying with warmer temps trying to break out, winds are erratic and keep things cool on high and in exposed regions, but there is also a warmer outlook growing stronger today with likelihood of sun spells.

5th NICE summery temps, blue skies and sunshine around, but a risk of quick showery outbursts for us, not sure abut the rest of the UK today though…

6th-8th Looks like the dry weather is more reliable with some nice temperatures and a brilliant atmosphere to enjoy good outdoor activity. 8th brings potential for some rainy stuff….but read on….

 
8th -16th July

I took some time out to look at important features for this chart and found 2 interesting record breaking incidents that wont occur during this phase…hopefully….

We have a similar chart to NM 22 June 1906 when record breaking high temperatures broke out, and though I do expect some nice seasonal highs for this phase, I don’t expect them to reach the same levels as then…..sadly, though we will get some nice warm temps hovering around–HURRAH.

I also took another look at the storm surge to Bristol and the Sun close to Mercury is supposed to bring strong winds, as in 1607, (and many times since then I might add) but I don’t see a similar storm surge, but I’m not ruling out very strong winds out to sea from 7th, and to our region on 9th. Saturn hovers around the west coast of GB from the start so it does look less sunny with lower temps there and winds look set to be strong for NW regions for the first few days, but then Silverdale in the NW can be a real wind tunnel any time of year………………………….

Photographers can expect some good visibility for the first few days as well, so get out your camera.

Temperature wise I expect seasonal highs to break out for the first part of this phase, with cooler temps after 13th
8th Sunshine around during the day with risk of quick scattered showers by evening. Temps should be warm today, the atmosphere should be clear, but cold pockets to exposed regions, and some strong gusty brisk westerlies could ward off the real highs. I do expect some sunshine today…..

9th Looks glorious for us with even higher temps ruling the day but some I’m afraid of a risk of very strong gusts and windy weather around, but this keeps things dry and hurries along any rain clouds that might try to spoil the UV count! Could be news of static outburst to west of us with mists or haze due to warming.

10th Cloudy if no0t gloomy start. More sunshine and some cloud likely but also blue skies around, some static could trigger localised sprays.

11th Temps still seasonally warm and rising, particularly south of us with perhaps lower pressure to the north, with risk of quick localised scattered cloudbursts

12th Things begin to unsettle a little today, temps still fair to moderately high, but could be cooler than previous days , Cloudy if not hazy early in the day and late at night, but fairer outlook during the day, some nebulous breezy conditions also.

13th Seismic conditions to East Asia, Japan regions today, I expect a sunny and warm outlook to prevail, but unsettled atmosphere with stronger N Westerlies

14th Risk of early showery stuff by mid day, but these look heavier to the west, sunny with isolated colder pockets for us in shady places, but less so by mid day.

15th Similar to yesterday with risk of quick sharp showery stuff if not hail by eve and potential for mist or haziness late evening. Breezy if not windy

16th A fair outlook, but very unsettled and lots of static forming, but winds to N West , could even be gales or stormy to highlands and news of thundery outbursts– late evening here>>>>>>>>>>>>>>read on for the next chapter in this weather story………………..

 
16th-22nd July

There are still some lovely almost tropical weather pockets around and Derry in Ireland looks likely to be where some of the good weather is, but so do John o Groats and Glucestershire regions, but this could turn around by 21/22nd when some cracking t/storms break out and some flash flooding is a risk.

I expect high levels of precipitation to arrive, and compete with records for July 2002 when three times the amount of average rainfall broke out and caused floods. I also expect a rash of higher than usual outbreaks of thunder and lightening storms

I’m not too happy with my forecast for this phase due to so many contradictory factors between highs and static outbursts travelling around and they are difficult to follow  demanding a lot of time and more charts which I don’t have time to do, so no promises…………….but for us I do expect heavy rain to hit by 21st but we also get some nice days to enjoy with some good temps, though not as high as previously, but still seasonally pleasant…The 18th-20th look like being more reliable for good weather outcomes

16th-17th Still appears lower temps could be NE, E Anglia looks well served with good weather, some warm weather around our parts creates risk of scattered migrating electrical outbursts overnight into 17th, heavy downpours accompany these, hopefully most of us will sleep through this, but some flash floods may result. Northern areas most prone to these outbreaks; including Scotland. 17th looks fine and sunny with warm temps around to keep us cheered up

18th -22nd Some cooling begins but 19th looks nice fair and sunny whilst 20th seems static with hazes forming, some muggy conditions around today and tomorrow. Some static lightening and thunder outbursts– highly probable over these days. 21st brings in high risk of downpours before or around mid day, these are very heavy as temps begin to rise again and some strong very gusty variable speed N Westerlies. Mid day 21st looks like the sun could shine through with a fine weather outlook for the afternoon, but the evening runs a risk of more heavy rain which could continue into 22nd cooling the atmosphere before sunrise, due to a very unsettled weather system breaking out warning of possible electrical outbursts accompanying rising temps, but the skies could clear easily leaving room for cloud but some sunshine and if you are resuming outdoor activity….take your brolly for these outbursts. Flash floods risk but some very warm trends also and should be a nice evening..read on

 
22nd July-29th July

In my dreams this is summer breaking out with at least barbecue evenings even if there is some cloud around during the day……..BUT, as I said this only happens in my dreams……

This weather phase left me exhausted, as if a tempest passed over! A lot of exciting weather to come.

This is the time of year when the sun is furtherest away from our planet and we often see a drop in temps and bad weather as if even the clouds above are grieving over the fact that school is out!

We do have a perigee on 21st, with Full Moon on 22nd so some of the warmer temps should be ruling both hemispheres. The East of England looks to be getting some fine summer sun with warm trends of summer temps (does it ever rain in Norfolk?) whilst the west is experiencing some low pressure with cooler temps, and this will change completely around by the end of this phase.

There is a risk of flash flooding due to risk of above average but torrential and quickly dispelled cloudbursts, the western regions from Keswick in a line down to Gloucestershire are most vulnerable towards the end of this phase, but Eastern coast of England down to Cambridge and beyond to Kent at the outset get hit by some spectacular lightening electrical storms.

Best headlines seem likely to come in from the West of us….
21-22 as already mentioned this appears to be when cloudburst break in between higher range of temperatures, the east from Whitby, Grimsby to Cambridgeshire and beyond looks the best region for these scattered outbursts, and down to Devon areas there does look to be some conflicting weather systems with electrical outbursts accompanying some lovely warm temps. Expect an unsettled outlook with localise warmth then sudden pockets of cooling after showers for these two days, with lightening showers, heavy at times but very heavy for some as soon as they begin and leaving clearer skies in their wake as they travel onwards. We wont be as badly affected in our region and we can expect some cloudburst but also some sunshine between the clouds, 22nd looks cooler for us, some sun spells expected and a finer evening so get ready for a good evening walk…or drinking al fresco

23rd looks better though some mistiness and hazes could prevail but some sunshine in between with clearer night skies. A risk of a quick spurt of showery stuff before sunrise warmer muggy trends today.

24th Similar to yesterday with shower risk more likely around mid afternoon but it could turn out to be just some cloud coming over. Temps moderate, getting warmth if you see the sun and some southerly flows of weather coming over, gusty breezes at times.

25th Risk of short but heavy showers after start of day and before sunrise but it could just be mists or haze I’m seeing. Milder to cool conditions for the daytime, should be sunshine but cloud around as well. Seems like some pathways could be getting muddy….

26th News of weather system hitting the west today/tomorrow– Cumbria down Welsh borders and up to West of Scotland likely to be facing up to the worst of the weather being seen on satellites, with a risk of some flash floods. Temps very muggy and tropical rains could be localised for some areas inland with easterlies around keeping things a bit broody, and news of mudslides a risk so don’t walk near muddy cliffs or take care on high ground where footpaths need careful scrutiny.

I expect fogs, mists and haze overnight, more predominant to west, after some fairer evening weather for us.

27th Risk of showers for us 5-8am temps more humid than cold,, sun with cloud expected by afternoon, clearer evening sky,some broody easterlies along with southerly flows still knocking around posing a risk of quick showery outbursts which could continue into the next day…

28th A dull start before sunrise. Humidity levels high some mist and haze to west and around watery places and coastal regions, strong winds for some quarters, fine and sunny and warm for the afternoon with sun spells for us, but a quick cloud burst could stop play around 3-6pm but it will leave things feeling fresher afterwards.

29th Sorry but this looks like even more rain increasing risk of flash flooding from west to east and our region. Very windy outlook as well, I can’t rule out some strong winds accompanying weather trends 28th-29th……..wet wet wet…….is the theme but it will clear up the muggy trends and leave the atmosphere refreshed and by late afternoon on 29th it does look like the rains are further east of us leaving us to a drier outlook for the afternoon and eve. Cool temps 29th and we could see some blue skies around with sunshine.

 
29th July- 8th August

Sorry to say my charts look like floods are likely to be continuing from last phase, with more heavy rain to add to the chaos for this phase. Hopefully I’m wrong, but astrologers have a rule, see a thing three times and positively predict,  and there are three signifiers for heavy rain and floods evident, but it could be they are already over by 30th…let’s see…..

29th looks showery adding to high levels already falling, heavier to the north travelling east and causing flash floods…Suffolk looks to be getting some rain today as well Wind activity is easterly so a bit broody weather to be expected.

30th A better outlook, cooler due to rain in previous days, but exhilarating atmosphere with coolness pervading it. Sun with cloud expected.

31st More scattered outbreaks, moderate temps, for the afternoon cloud and quick but heavy showers. Mists haze or cloud by evening some sun might break through.

1st Aug. Risk of showers by breakfast, very unsettled outlook, some muggy conditions and risk of static outbursts today and these may be around very early, milder by middle of day, but it does look like late evening has some lovely clear skies for stargazers such as myself. Some strong gusty N Westerlies around today to keep things drying out

2nd. Moderate temps getting warmer, risk of heavy showers by late evening and into following morning, potentially a fair weather outlook during the afternoon.

3rd Looks like better summer conditions today with any outbursts staying off till evening if they do arrive to your locality.

4th Wind speed increased to eastern parts, but some N Westerlies bring down cooler temps today cool but dry weather, electrical outburst to high regions and northern areas. The afternoon looks cool but with sun spells, cloudier later.

5th Slightly milder today, breezy though could turn out to be a dry fair day with some warmth from sun in the afternoon.

6th 6-8th look like similar to 5th. Fairer days, breezy southerlies around turning NW by 8th, some cooling on 7th but very unsettled outlook for 8th

6th-14th August

Could this be a nice phase???

Although I studied the chart for hours and researched some unusual features in it, I found the outcome so difficult to define and I do not have a lot of confidence in it at all.

When we have a New Moon we normally get the drier weather during the day and any precipitation at evening and overnight. I don’t see excess precipitation for this phase, but the temperatures are not reliable either, nor are reliable unbroken sunny days.

At first the chart looked sunny glorious and warm, and for sure the 10th looks the most likely for this, but there are some dangers of showery and misty weather spoiling continuously clear days or prolonged sunny conditions.

Apologies if this doesn’t work out the way I forecast at this stage long range on  February 20th 2013!

6th-8th look like fine days with some lovely weather to enjoy on 6th as mentioned in previous phase.

8th looks a little more unsettled with more warming around and southerlies

9th seems to have some risk of showery weather but more for the southern regions. Some good visibility around pm and evening with brisk westerlies combining with easterly flows, gusty at times continuing into tomorrow.

10th seems to be very warm and humid and a risk of hazes or mists near watery places and in valleys overnight tonight, temps mild but could be very warm if not very high, generally a fair outlook.

11th Mists and risk of muggy start today but developing into some fair conditions which sees some varying trends on cloud and temps, easterlies and some dull gloomy skies by late afternoon and evening.

12th Some mists or cloud still lingering and today sees high risk of showery weather, but skies clearer by the afternoon.

13th Another showery outlook for today around sunrise, mugginess around from early morning which looks to be quite warm, the afternoon looks better.

14th brings in some gusty westerlies combined with easterlies turning NW by 15th when they promise to get very strong, Sun with cloud expected… read on………….

14th August -21st

Mostly dry with some static outbursts of hail and sharp showers, some mists and some wind disturbances with sporadic static outbursts for 15-16th, these can be heavy to some localities, hail to others and accompanied with thunder and lightening for others. Weather will better to south England and cloudier to the north.

The worst of the weather hits the southern hemisphere for these days….

14th I’m expecting warmth in the sun, temps moderate but rising gently, fresh atmosphere, with fleecy clouds, but some unsettled winds begin to come in

15th Erratic and gusty if not high speed to north west, this can bring a sudden drop to bring in colder temps to high ground and exposed areas. Clearer skies by late evening, fresh atmosphere white fluffy clouds in blue sky, but a risk of localised and sporadic hail or sharp shower weather due to clash with warm and cold air as warned in the introduction.

16th Cooler outlook some scattered electrical showers, risk of high speed winds and or gales for some regions, acute and sharp cutting gusty westerlies along with scattered static outbursts.

17th similar to yesterday but winds less volatile, still some unsettled conditions but a cool sunny outlook could prevail with some gusty weather.

18th Similar to yesterday with some warmth from sun at mid day but a risk of a shower to freshen things up

19th and 20th localised showery outlook rising temps by 20th calm with potential for mists to form particularly likely early on 20th, due to high humidity, but by late evening on 20th some fair weather outlook some cloud around.

21st More winds likely, high speed to high locations, cool outlook though some warmth during the day, static sporadic outbursts can arrive to keep temps on the lower side, better outlook by evening read on

 
21st 28th August

Cooler temperatures begin to arrive, with some mizzles drizzles for us, as well as some mists and fogs. The whole of the UK sees rain moving around 21st-22nd and some strong winds are expected keeping temps low even if the sun does try to shine. East Anglia looks to get some of the highs that remain on a diagonal flow up to NW Scotland from the outset, and the NW region Cumbria could also see some of these but a risk of fogs and mists arises from this system following the trail of any warmth.

21st-22nd Rapid static outbursts of sleet and sharp showers, high velocity winds with rain heavier to southern areas, radio disturbances from previous days continue for a few more days accompanying static outbursts. Northerlies operate trying to ward off heavier downfalls and the evening on 21st looks like some sunshine gives us a pleasanter evening. Overall the outlook is cool with winds much stronger and erratic by 22nd onwards accompanying rainfall circulating the UK.

23rd Intermittent short sharp showers, hail to some localities short sharp and swift, cutting but some blue skies and sun spells likely but very cold temps for us.

24th Very cold pockets , similar to yesterday more cloud around by late evening, if not mists and fogs.

25th Humidity high, clouds and risk of fog, damp conditions with mizzles and drizzly outbursts, winds very strong gusty westerlies, sudden localised squalls break out along canal banks and river ways in valleys, localised but very strong and can last up to one or two hours before settling down. Patchy fog and mists likely especially by late evening when they can be thicker creating transport probs due to low visibility.

26th Cloudy dull with easterlies early in the morning looking broody, a cold outlook, but some fairer outlook by mid day, sun with cloud around, risk of a sudden outbursts of localised sleet and hailstorms late afternoon, cold evening and could be some frost to wake up to next day

27th The outlook is clearer for today fairer weather to the north, some cloud to start with but clearing and a fresher atmosphere but some unsettled if not stormy conditions to follow……….

 
28th August -5th September

I get to this stage realising I try so hard to find some glorious uninterrupted sunny spells that it would be nice to just ignore the bad bits and pretend the highs that appear in some of the charts this phase, will not be interrupted by anything windy or wet…….in your dreams..
East Anglia to Kent look set to get some lovely highs, but then they always do……the best of the temps for the ending of summer occur mid ocean half way between Hull and Rotterdam, so book your ferry now……..
Back here in W Yorks and yonder, a different picture emerges, but we do get some warm weather if not constantly sunny days to come and the 5th does look rather pleasant……

28th –30th have high humidity with likelihood of fogs by night, with mists and hazes hanging around threatening to obscure the sunshine by day. Some breeziness turning easterly and broody on 29th. The 30thwith winds turn strong, erratic and very speedy at times, and gusty turning westerly then northerly by late at night on 30th, fetching some coolness down from the north. Cloudiness forming during the day on 3oth, and a risk of rain coming in with the winds, the northerlies clear skies overnight into early start 31st producing some white woolly clouds and clearer skies for early morning 31st, and late at night promises better conditions for the south of our region, but cloudier the further north you get,

31st During the day looks like seeing a risk of static outbursts, sporadic potential for localised thunderstorms for some regions, these cloudbursts look sporadic for us during the day and late at night.

1st-5th Rain travelling south to east regions but we could see some heavy outbursts by late evening on 1st for W Yorks regions.

2nd onwards look like better days some mists and hazes could linger but temps set to still be summery and warm but humid 4th onwards, and a fine evening looks to break out on 4th. It looks breezier for this half with things cooling a little at night with air frosts likely overnight. 3rd is static hazy and humid with some darker clouds forming mid day, better weather by evening with a crisp and fresher outlook. 5th looks lovely at this stage….and from yesterday we could be in for those fine evenings when people sit out and enjoy convivial refreshment al fresco…..but read on>>>>>

 
5th-12th September

This looks like a drier phase with some sunshine around to remind us of summer. There are echoes of September 2011 when we had a heatwave for the last throes of summer, but don’t expect that on this occasion, and remember that there were some very strong winds around as well as rain as a result of that unusually warm weather.

Overall this phase looks drier until we get to the 10th when some precipitation looks likely to come in from the western parts hitting them worse than our region. Some strong winds could create problems for some regions for this phase also.

5th-6th Looks fair for us with some fine seasonally high temps on 5th, but there can also be sudden drops in temperatures so don’t take any warmth from the sun for granted, and if you are fell walking the drops will hit the tops first before descending downwards to valleys where areas in shadow will feel chilly. Cloudiness could set in from late evening on 6th

7th looks cloudy from the turn of the day but then it looks better from perhaps sunrise with some fair weather beckoning you into outdoor activity for the morning of the day and beyond with some warmth from the sunshine, but with some gusty outbursts.

8th A misty or cloudy start, lower temps and risk of some dullness but some sun spells expected for the afternoon, more cloudy possibly misty again by late evening.

9th A breezy outlook with some trends for more turbulent weather for some regions with strong gusty winds. Sun with cloud for the early part of the day, some warmth from sun, but clouds forming late evening warn of rain risk ahead.

10th-12th Strong, breezy if not windy, a fair start to the day on 10th but things getting duller as day progresses with a risk of rain arriving later in the afternoon and evening with more precipitation likely on following days. Some mists near waterways can be expected.

 
12th-19th September

The weather gets very busy for this phase and my satellite technology shows highs reigning across from Cornwall to the N E coast at Whitby, and anyone on that line across England can expect the best of a mini heatwave for a couple of days.

12th-13th Temperatures may be a little bit lower to the east to start with where some NW keep things cool, but some blue skies are left behind in their wake leaving a warm glow in the sunshine. I expect a little cloud to form by evening, but we should see some sunshine breaking out all over.

14th Today sees more highs but unsettled with likelihood of some quick static outbursts of hail and sleet in response to higher temps on previous days. It is calm misty/cloudy and sultry to begin the day, gusty North Westerlies rev up and can become strong for some regions in exposed areas to the west and north, mid day should be fine for us with a risk of showery outbreaks to high places. I’ll be looking to see if we get Fohn winds at this time of the phase, these are nice warm breezes that feel like someone left the hair drier on…..the hail storms are more likely late afternoon and evening. I do expect sunshine for daytime.

15th-16th is when the fun starts, but there should still be sunshine around the middle of the day on 15th. We can expect some static outbursts with scattered hailstorms late afternoon becoming strong overnight, with severe outbursts scattered, sporadic and intermittent, more intense to NW and Scotland as a cold front comes in to fight with the sultry conditions of previous days. Some strong gusty winds of varying speed with a breeding ground for localised tornadic outbursts, these storms can affect comms systems and air travel. There should be some blue skies around as well during the daytime.

17th shows very strong gusty westerlies, a mild start but much cooler by late afternoon with an unsettled outlook due to fast moving clouds which may prevent sun from getting through

18th-19th Stormy weather can be moving northwards, broody easterlies with risk of fogs and mists, and to be honest it does look like some heavy rain begins to fall late afternoon and evening on 18th, if it doesn’t then I’m just looking at some very dull leaden skies with risk of drizzle and mizzly stuff and cooler northerlies breaking out on 19th trying to clear things up. The NW looks to be worst hit by the precipitation on these days.

 summer 2013

FEEDBACK Long Range Weather Forecast 19th July – 2nd August

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FEEDBACK 19th-26th August

19th brought heavy showers in the early monring with sun and cloud later and warm temps but some breezy conditions, a dry day though some localised showers were widespread as I expected.
20th Very early light showers but another dry day for us cludy though with sun spells as forecast
21st Sunny and dry day as forecast
22nd light early shower, cloudy but a sunny day develpping by mid day, windy but hot in the sun as forecast, but no showers for us.
23rd Very windy conditions blue skies wool packed cloud with temps ave to high depending on how sheltered or in shade you were, given a cool windy outlook.
24th-28th Generally the weather turned out to be be fair to good but I wasn’t in my usual locality though given I foecast good weather to the east coast, I have to say I was delighted to find my foecast, given early this year, was correct as the east coast was enjoying excellent summer conditions in spite of the met giving poor conditions to the North of England. I was at Whitby where folk were saying they had enjoyed fantastic highs and sun from Saturday 21st……….and notice my foecast, delivered in February said that the East Coast of Yorkshire would have good place for highs from the start of this pahse…so an excellent result for this phase forecast. Thursday 26th was the one to watch out for as the met forecast t/storms for this day and these didn’t materialise at all instead there was just a break in blue sky conditions with rain arriving early on Wednesday but only in drizzles that didn’t spoil outdoor pursuits.

An excellent long range forecast for this phase.

26th July- 2nd August FEEDBACK
26th-28th as above, lovely weather
29th cluody, some sun and some brief localised showers around W Yorks
30th Cloudy day with occasional sun spells cooer temp[s due to breezes and windiness.
31st Cloudy all day, cooler temps, some few sun spells drizzles by late evening leading to mistiness and fog patches late at night
1st August Cloudy start, sun attempts by mid day, sun and showers in the afternoon and evening soradic as forecast.
2nd Sunny generally though a quick showery outburst in the afternoon, not long lasting though and ave to warm temps…..

Cooler temps this phase than the previous one as forecast……

Weather Forecast 28th May-19th June 2012 W Yorks and Yonder

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28th May-4th June
 Windy, cold but drier phase but t/storms could break out to some regions, west looks likely area. Short spells of showery outbreaks interrupt dry sunny weather.

28th Sun with cloud and cold temps mists and mizzles near watery places in valleys but any poor weather is moving fast so shouldn’t stay around to spoil things too much. Some sunshine expected during the day. Any static outbursts will soon be over.
29th Today is hard to convey as conditions forecast isolated and heavy downpours for some localities. This is a day when you set off to Otley/Bolton Abbey etc from Horsforth/Yeadon in fine weather only to find you end up in a downpour, then get back home to find it was a lovely day  and you missed out on the good weather!! Some sunshine and blue sky expected but cloudier evening. Temps moderate though cooler in localities where rain falls.
30th A fairer day average temps with cold pockets in shade, ground may be wet but gusty wins should be drying things out.
31st Could be a shower after midnight but sunnier by sunrise with whippy westerlies lashing your face in exposed areas.
1st More muggy trends southerly breezes keep things getting too cool but brining in cloudiness. Scattered showery conditions but sunny as fast moving cloud travels over.
2nd Watery Neptune stations today but seems to be bringing mists mizzles and haziness to western regions beyond ours. Mod temps with some scattered showery spells but some sunshiny bits as well
3-4th Gusty easterlies arrive for three days sustaining a static outlook and more showery outbreaks. Showery late 3rd and into early 4th. Sun with cloud for 4th which looks like a better day

4th June-11th
A FINE WEATHER WEEK HURRAH! VENUS SUN conjunction.

GET OUT THE BBQ! I’m booking away days for this phase which looks like the best of the weather for us for Spring so far. When looking at these charts I always have an eye on the best weeks to book away days and so far have felt that no week looked good enough to guarantee long lasting warmth and less humidity and consistent good conditions. This week ticks all the boxes. A Full Moon usually brings good evenings with fine skies that sees everyone heading for bistro or bar by the river or canal and this week should be no exception. For many days to come it looks like flaming June lives up to its reputation………………..( Quick note and update:-  remember I wrote these forecasts and published them early Jan-Feb but happily the hot sunshine arrived earlier than forecasted, and luckily I managed to getaway to enjoy it, hopefully this forecast will also turn out sunnier than expected)
Some exciting astronomical event for this week will hit the headlines and it will be Venus retrograding over the Sun in the sky which you may recall also occurred in 2004. For us this is extra special as it combines with a sensitive position in one of the charts I use for forecasting temperatures, and augurs a high for our region especially.

2004 saw many floods for the Yorkshire region but a staggeringly dramatic flood for Boscastle by August 16th, in the west peninsular which I had only visited a few weeks before the landslides and huge torrents of water ravaged the tiny village. I’m watching events following this years Venus Sun conjunction on 6th June.

4th Cool but sunny, some easterlies still hovering, but the worst of the mists and mizzles look to be near Dundee, Carmarthen, Lewis and Cork areas not ours.
5th A hot day and some great weather in following days it is only once we get to 10th that some mists and haze or even precipitation around 12-2pm can break up the nice weather.
11th brings in some gusty NW but temps rising high so we’ll see what is coming up for the next phase….read on….

4th June-19th

This week continues the good weather trends and summer really settles into some lovely temps and dry weather with some high ozone coming over with blue skies and heady outlook for some fine days. Some gusty winds and breeziness but I doubt they will spoil the outdoor activity and although some scattered spray and showers can be released by the static conditions created by the highs I doubt they will spoil outdoor activity until later in the phase.

11th Slightly unsettled atmosphere can lead to some scattered showers around, some gusty cold NW around but also some blue skies with wool packed clouds temps increasingly warmer as the day progresses
2nd same as yesterday with some gusty westerlies keeping things lively a slight cooling till sun gains strength at mid day
13th Wholesome outdoor conditions along with some easterly flows, some cloud around but higher temp range expected today
14th Temps remain higher range scattered showers over as soon as they begin and quite refreshing
15th -16th weather of previous days should continue with some northerlies around on 15th
17th Brings a high with rising temps and high ozone and some blue sky expected but some warning of a scattered showery outlook after sunrise along with gusty westerlies from today could be some mistiness around near water and in valleys due to higher temps over previous days.
18th Some more cloud around and breezy conditions continue, strong at times
19th A very wet front seems likely to pass over to the eastern parts and could be prolonged precipitation that creates mists and fogs as it travels. High levels of precip expected and the high temps can be a little muggy today, but who cares….summer is clearly on the way and we have just been reminded of that in the previous days…..

 

Enjoy the weather whatever it may be and wherever you are

FEEDBACK 20th May -28th

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FEEDBACK 20th May -28th
20th No showers for us it was mostly dry and sunny by mid day with ave to cool temps.
21st Overcast but dry no breeze with sunshine out late afternoon and evening
22–28th and continuing…..FABULOUS GLORIOUS WEATHER, blue skies with temps rising to highs earlier than I forecast for 28th for many regions of UK……..yes some mists around from 23rd and strong breezy to windy for some areas by 24/25th but generally with none of the cold hail outburst I had forecast, thank goodness.

Well that was easy, and so glad the weather turned out better than I forecast HURRAH!  Hope you managed to enjoy it as much as I did after all those early May forecasts in the press warning of the coldest May for over 100 years…..at least I wasn’t that wrong….!!

UKweather 13th-21st August-astrometeorology

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13-21 August
This is barbecue time for certain. Some fogs and mistiness at outset in low lying areas but generally we can expect some summer highs and fine weather to come with lovely summer evenings bringing fine outdoor conditions for sitting outside cafe style and al fresco dining.

13-14th Warm air and mugginess from outset leading to some mistiness in low lying areas, but some clearer conditions with sunshine as sun grows stronger.. Temperatures should be soaring and lead to electrical outbursts for 15th and this can bring showers for some regions of UK especially northern areas. Winds can begin to be active from 16th and clouds likely to be blown about moving any rain threats along leaving sunshine some room to shine and whippy westerlies grow stronger on 17th turning N Westerly.  Nice day on 18th with warm southerly air flows mingling below strong N Westerlies and some varying temperatures by 19th onwards, but summer continues though we leave the highs behind by the end of this phase with news of wetter weather to come over from west.
Actually my forecast turn out much more accurate than that quoted here from a newspaper in March this year written by Fiona Macrae:–

”June will bring heavy rain, thunderstorms and even flash-flooding, say weathermen.
And if that hasn’t done enough to dampen your spirits, this summer’s weather will be worse than that of the previous two years.
Bright future: Much of the country enjoyed an early taste of summer last week, but we might not see similar conditions again until August – which is set to be a scorcher
Mr Powell said: ‘Late July and August should offer the warmest temperatures – but the highest recorded temperatures are not under any threat.”

Written by tricia astro meteorologist

August 12, 2011 at 4:47 pm