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Spring UK Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder 2013

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Spring 2013

Spring 2013

Spring UK Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder

Cold and wet with snow thrown in just about sums up this Spring season.

Spring is late arriving this year and will be characterised by some strong if not fierce windy outbursts watch out for such conditions from 18th- 25th April for wild conditions to reign. This phase is also the best temperature wise and a great time to book a holiday in Ireland where it looks like the highest temps will be reported.
25th April to 2nd May looks like a slow moving system coming down from a low to NW region moves slowly across to the east spoiling the outlook a little but manifesting the continuing clash of highs with low and producing some high humidity and pluvial conditions along with mists and hazes.
June doesn’t look very flaming this year with some reminders of last year Jubilee conditions returning to haunt us and floods breaking out as rivers come full capacity creating flood alerts predominantly to the east and SE by 16th June, but the western parts are also under assault from heavy moisture mist and fogs hanging around some of those parts for weeks at a time prior to this.

Very unsettled conditions for this phase as Spring tries to break through, with some unseasonably cold conditions prevailing.

Mists and fogs to watery places will form as warmer temps try to ward off cold descending air masses, with mists and squalls more prevalent to the N East.

Very strong if not gale force winds arrive by 22nd with tornado breeding conditions likely to midlands SE regions.
Winds are very sporadic from 22nd onwards, strong at times and we will see transport systems affected as well as communication systems.

19-20th March unsettled weather with cold temps, potential frosty outlook and southerlies and NW air breeziness brining in some intermittent showery outbreaks localise with hail and sleet coming in and snow potential for high ground.
21st Cold day, some sun but attempts at warming by mid day, quick icy showers could ring in the start of this day.

22nd Very unsettled with sleet, hail and snow blizzards potential, the south looks to be worst hit by precipitation at this stage. Winds more lively becoming strong and gusty with tornado breeding conditions to S E Midland areas. Very strong winds to our region by 10 pm with blizzards likely to come in overnight into 23rd accompanied by high velocity winds t/out UK and some scattered electrical storms. Transport and communication systems upset by this outburst of squally weather. Areas between 30-40 degrees over in Europe also look to be having some fun with the weather at this stage.

23rd Very cold outlook, mostly cloudy, some sun attempts by mid day, sporadically strong winds continue with mists and fogs around late evening.

24th Spring makes another try at breaking through today, arriving later than usual. Some windy conditions stay around, outlook very unsettled, static conditions are lively so quick sporadic localised showers can be expected as the day begins particularly. Clearer skies before sunrise with some milder temps attempting to ward of the nippier ones ruling previous days. Mists and fogs near watering places as a result.

25th Clear skies to start us off a dry day with cold pockets but some good conditions for getting outdoors and flying your kite in the windy weather! We should see lots of sunshine along with some cloudy stuff. HURRAH!

26th Weather systems begin to move in an S E direction a cool sunny outlook with some cold pockets to contend with.

27th Looks more static and some electrical outbursts expected…difficult to locate these sadly…..read on…..

27th March-3rd April

Tricky chart to read with many hidden and unusual combinations of weather systems, so I’m not very confident of the forecast at this stage but here goes……
Previous combinations of the type we meet this phase arrived last year when mudslides affected the N E regions near Berwick upon Tweed and Hexham whilst down in East Anglia lovely summery weather broke out, though some spray did arrive to interrupt clearer conditions than those upsetting rail routes in other areas from 26th June.
News of mudslides not beyond the bounds of expectation…oh if only I had a team of workers I could be more specific…….

Not only that another similar outbreak of bad weather hit us in November 2011 when Stonehaven in Scotland got a 100 year record broken as floods broke out whilst in Hampshire mini tornadoes surprised a few folk.

I do expect some flooding for this phase and it does look likely to be the N E regions again, but hopefully I am so wrong you just ignore this forecast…here goes……..

27th Heavy rain looks likely to be travelling eastwards from the start of the day (start means after midnight) but we can also expect temps to rise today and dryness to prevail as day draws onwards with northerlies active trying to dry everything out and blow away the poor conditions……some Seismicity around last time this occurred it was Cumbria region….

28th Dry but cooler day some warmth from the sun by middle of the day when sun is stronger, but some cold pockets around especially in high exposed places, Cloud around late evening.
29th Broody outlook today if not oppressive, could be some sunshine around but again cold pockets keep things cool in shade by late evening, clouds forming could bring in some prolonged precipitation that lasts far into the night and into 30th…I am not dismissing flooding due to strain on drains and it looks like north and n eastern areas already pointed out in the intro that are vulnerable….

30th as already mentioned some sunshine could break out but some loud around also clouds if not mists by evening or it may be frost as well…..

31st Better outlook for today sunshine with cloud, milder conditions but sun manages to warm things up for the afternoon a little bit.

1st April Warmer or milder seasonal temps expect these to go up today…..

2nd Some precipitation to eastern quarters could be off shore Brid, Scarborough and Whitby….hope it isn’t Whitby under assault yet again….cooler temps sunshine around as well, some gusty weather to contend with also.

3rd read on as this looks quite changeable

3rd-10th April
Looking back over my weather history the last time we had a chart similar to this over the past four years was April 2009 when Mars was on the equator and whilst the temps were spring like and warm there was a lot of heavy rain and thunderstorms broke out to Leicestershire and beyond. Similarly January 2010 when icy temps reigned with arctic lows coming over, a lot of precipitation arrived along with thunderstorms to the Huddersfield and beyond regions, with floods due to thaws with Scotland hit badly by fogs and mists causing chaos.

This leads me to understand that we will get fogs and mists this time around, along with heavy precipitation in the form of wintery showers, hail sleet and snow very heavy amounts expected sometimes localised but t/out the UK by 7th possible overnight from 6th so prolonged and causing problems in its wake, with thundery outburst localised around 5-6th.

In brief this phase is cold, damp, misty, wet and windy……………………….potential for tornado or wind spouts for 5th-6th

3rd Gusty westerlies still around from yesterday with potential winter showers by afternoon
4th Cooler outlook, some sun southerly movement of weather quick sporadic showers by afternoon, localised so difficult to track.
5th Intermittent sporadic fast icy winter showers, heavier by evening, temps slightly milder. Some mists and haze developing near watery places due to cold and warmer air clashing and wind spouts potential to SW in Midland areas–more likely on 6th>>>>>>>>>>>>>
6th Isolated showery intervals broody conditions with humidity high giving potential to breed mists fogs and haziness, this looks denser to western quarters. Southerlies bringing in snow or winter showers with N W regions up to Scotland getting heaviest outpourings. The precipitation could last overnight into 7th
7th Winter showers throughout UK with some snow expected, very heavy at times and causing traffic upheavals, some regions could see flooding.
8th Sun trying to break through the haze milder temps around with some cold pockets to contend with, more spartan sudden and quick snow/hail/sleet outbreaks potential by afternoon.
9th Showers look likely to NW regions today with some gusty westerlies that could bring some of this precipitation over to our parts on the wind a hazy start early morning.
10th Some milder Spring conditions but humidity still high.

New Moon 10 April -18th
The theme for this phase is lack of sunshine, varying extremes of temps breeding viruses due to misty muggy conditions with some snow attempts coming over with easterly flows. Cold, mostly, but blustery with mistiness and fogs around.

10th Some sun attempts potential by the afternoon, localised showery outbreaks with westerlies, showers intermittent, fogs and mists over to western regions, some snow could come in with easterly flows to southern regions and reach here potentially but no promises, scurrying clouds, unsettled conditions.
11th Some more westerlies. Cool cloudy start of day trying to clear by breakfast, clouds mists could be hovering near watery places in valleys, mid day looks clearer but cool, more moderate temps varying by late afternoon. Wintery showery outbreaks more likely to east of us—-Far East over Europe but flowing towards us. I’m not ruling out some mists and mizzles for today and this could be from late in the day into morning on 12th
12th Seems to be a little milder but some cold pockets lingering, mid day could bring some sunny outbreaks, no guarantees at this stage, easterlies and north easterlies make it a little blustery.
13th Westerlies turn southerly by late in the evening. Looks misty or cloudy with potential for drizzle stuff in some localities. Cold pockets still around so wrap up warm. Misty or cloudy by midnight. Temps are very unsettled and can vary from some milder ranges to extremely cold.
14th Similar to yesterday, some dampness prevails with potential for mizzles.
15th Temps variable again but it does look milder by late evening, blustery breezy conditions blowing clouds along so sunshine in between cloudiness, but it does look a little hazy till late morning.
16th
Much milder temps prevailing but gusty westerlies still keeping things lively. Looks cloudy late evening and still blustery if not gloomy
17th Rain guaranteed today coming in from the west hitting us around 9 am depending on whether my pc has calculated the maths It does look clearing to better conditions by evening with milder temps….but this April don’t forget…when winter and summer battle it out.
Temps look to be rising by early 18th in fact it looks like a high comes in to make us feel summer is just around the corner….this is a very warm outlook…………………………….

April 18th-25th
The best place to be to hit the highs of Spring this phase is Ireland, especially Derry where the best of the temps break out to let us know summer has arrived……errrmmmmm except there is a cold front to the eat of UK warning that all isn’t as good as it looks. Some will hit the highs some will get the lows whilst some will get both on the same day! I’m not ruling out snow or sleet or hail either, and we will hear news of a big seismic event this phase to keep us glued to weather reports in the news……looks likely to hit the mid Atlantic Ridge as well as East of Japan.

18th Temps high tropical heat wave seems to bring a welcome invitation to strip off, but don’t be fooled….very high winds become active, but sultry conditions around by late evening
19th Another fair day fairer to the north rising temps north westerlies gusting and variable sun with cloud
20th Glorious weather expected……..high pressure moving eastwards some fierce erratic winds coming from west could prove troublesome however
21st Windy weather can spoil the outlook some lows clashing with highs will produce localised sporadic hail or sleet outbursts
22nd Winds still erratic sleet and hail potential arrives today after a clear start before sunrise, these wintery outbursts could continue intermittently t/out today and tomorrow as lows clash with highs, some clouds coming in mists and haziness could also develop, high pressure still moving easterly late evening clashing with cold and causing hail and winter showers.
23rd As yesterday very unsettled conditions so don’t take any sunny outbursts for settled weather as this can change from one minute to the next, though trends for warmer or milder temps by the afternoon, and some static outbursts likely with some northerly winds still gusty and strong.
24th Some mists clouds or haze by evening and a cloudy if hazy start of day, but the daytime should be fair, mild to warm temps if a little muggy but northerlies keep things fresh trying to ward off any bad weather threats.
25th Some high temps again but some cloud around with static cloudbursts potentially sleet or hail likely some arriving from midnight into the morning but sporadic and intermittent today.

25th April -2nd May
Some challenging conditions for me to read for this phase, so don’t rely on the outcomes too much at this stage which is the result of a partial lunar eclipse in sultry Scorpio promising some extremes of weather outcomes, so nothing is taken for granted….no guarantees but I don’t think I’ll find many trustworthy away days for this phase………………………….hopefully 1st and 2nd as well as 27th will prove best of the bunch. A low operates and can bring in a bit of a stormy outlook , some weather extremes highly likely, wind being one of them, and I am not discounting a snowfall attempt for some localities either–25th-28th highly likely suspects. OK just took a look at the weather expert Ken Ring’s email from January when he told me he expected snow for our region for 28th and 29th, so I seem to be on the right track here……..thank goodness…….

25th As above

26th Some static outbursts continue, but humidity is high and temps still seem sultry and mild with wind conditions nebulous and variable with northerlies and southerlies competing causing unsettled atmospherics. Some winter shower potential around along with some cloudiness but some sun spells.
27th Static and hazy conditions continue sun with cloud likely with the warmth going south leaving some mists potential mizzles and haziness or just cloud around early in the morning and evening.
28th A potential low operates and there looks to be a greater likelihood of windy weather and showery outbursts, some sleet or snow can shock some localities, but some clearer conditions by the afternoon this low looks more prevalent to the NW region where colder weather breaks out, but it will move slowly eastwards over coming few days passing us on its way. This system looks like a stormy outlook, showery rainy and a little gloomy. Cooler temps on previous days likely for next few days.
29th Cooler temps, very strong gusty westerlies clashing with easterlies creating blustery winds and showery outbursts as the low passes slowly east. Fogs or mists for evening
30th More showery stuff from the west before sunrise, winds continue gusty and blustery, but some sunshine expected to break out after sunrise but clouds around in the afternoon
1st Northerlies arrive and they usually bring in an attempt to clear things up a little, cold start but temps getting seasonally milder as day progresses, some cloud around with sun.
2nd Same as yesterday with some showery outbreaks risk for early morning but clearer outlook late afternoon and evening. Temps beginning to rise again…….

2nd May -10th
A static phase with some highs but this creates tendency for cracking thunder and lightening for many parts of UK which breaks out 4th-7th, but more likely for 5th in our region. My maps show low to he north with highs to the south and trouble when they meet………………………..
8th-10th will bring some showery conditions that are refreshing and clear up any residual static.

2nd As above, sun with cloud added, showers localised.
3rd Cooler outlook, easterlies bring in some broodiness, cold pockets around and air frosts likely overnight into 4th, mists and mizzles moves around UK with some hail and sleet outbreaks, most likely late evening for us.
4th Some squally conditions with WN Westerlies breeding occasionally very gusty air flows, sun with scurrying clouds. Some news of lightening strikes for some UK areas.
5th Our day for static outbursts -sporadic, intermittent with lightening and thunder likely.
6th Warmer temps today should be lovely bluer skies by the afternoon, variable winds with gusty westerlies strong at times. More static outbursts potential to some nearby regions –audible here also.
7th overnight air frost, cool outlook but fair weather gusty weather could continue
8th – 10th some fairer weather likely any showers will be refreshing and hopefully short-lived, pleasant outdoors even in the rainy spells– intermittent with variable winds continuing mostly westerly. This being a quarter moon the rule of thumb is drier conditions for midnight to mid-day.

10th -18th May
I’m trying so hard to find a good weather phase but am failing miserably, so let’s hope I got the whole thing wrong and the met says wonderful weather is about to break out….if only…
This map looks a little stormy and snow is likely to break out at any time on any day, when will we put it behind us I wonder. Floods to some regions west of us are also possible.
10th snow likely to be coming down of far NE of coast of Scotland, today is damp cool and breezy and may be strong at times snow is heralded for late evening…sorry about that…I could be wrong, but my chart says snow lands here around 22:19 and is likely to be heavy……..strong winds may accompany this influx
11th A warmer day so all that snow might thaw rapidly, it will be cloudier to the north today including us, with mists or lower visibility around sunrise but some outbreaks of hail and sleet showers also likely 607pm but no guarantees they don’t arrive at other times…
12th More snow potential by evening…………………………….cool during the day especially on high ground milder to southern parts of UK.
13th Sunshine with loud expected, weird and nebulous wind conditions turning north westerly could be some wind spouts, potential mists by evening and snow flurries not discounted
14th Icy, sunny, cool, breezy northerlies and westerlies calmer conditions.
15th Not the best day in fact mists mizzles and rainy outbreaks travel t/out GB today rain hail sleet and a bit of snow in the mix but skies clearer by late evening if you are sky watching…
16th A quick cloudburst not unlikely for start of day, temps moderate, breezy and occasionally very windy potential today gusty variable wind activity.
17th Warm and sunny with some cool pockets in shade and on high exposed areas settled outlook
18th Some icy sleet showery weather not long lasting sudden sporadic and intermittent auguring cold conditions temp wise. Wind activity variable lower temps, fairer to north GB.

18th-2 5th May
Hold on to your hats because this does look windy still BUT it does look like some fair weather breaks out…HURRAH……
Systems operating for this phase include real heat off south west coast of Ireland, oh the luck of the Irish,, the Orkneys look to be having fair weather too, it’s cloudier and more moderate from the Hebrides to mid south coast of England, while we get mostly fine conditions but any rain or gloom sets in while we are fast asleep….the 21st and 24th looks pretty temperate with some warmth to make seedlings spring up and sing.

18th- 21st looks like fair weather breaking out sleet showers still potential more to the south and eastern regions from 18th. Northerlies get strong on 19th and some cold pockets still remain in shade and on high ground, but fine weather for the daytime. 20th Fine skies for photography with gentler breeziness prevailing clouds forming later in the day and continuing overnight with some potential for sudden static outbursts continuing into early 21st. 21st Sees winds revving up and getting stronger north westerly and blustery as easterlies join in late afternoon, some showery outbreaks potential from very early morning, but temps rising during the day for a fair but very windy outlook till late evening.

22nd Looks to be higher temps kicking in warding off any cool pockets but some static build with mists or haze late evening potentially. Breezy weather.
23rd Blue skies some cloud breezy
24th lovely warm temps a hazy day, sun with cloud and gusty breezes
25th Today looks like some showery weather arrives by mid morning.

25th May -31st
The better temps are to SW tips of England -Cornwall– this phase. Wetter conditions prevail to NW Scotland, Ireland and SW Wales. A weather system passing down east coast moves further over to the continent from the outset. There is a flood or high precipitation warning for this phase but I think it will be in the wetter areas already mentioned to western regions.
Although temps do rise bring in some hope summer is around the corner, we get lower ranges of temps that break out for our region…sorry folks…go to Cornwall to get the best of the highs! East Anglia looks OK as well……

25th Fair for outdoors during the day, but some showery stuff could break out in localities around sunrise and evening around 6-7 pm, with fairer conditions southwards to us. Wins look gusty N Westerlies
26th Nice warm summery day shower potential till mid morning but some warmth in sun from mid day onwards
27th Some nice wool packed clouds in a bright blue sky, lovely outlook for photography, expect temps to rise again today.
28th Favours outdoors some easterlies turning southerly which can produce a little broodiness, but southerlies are warm but clouds breeding late evening, but a calm outlook weather wise for us.
29th Sporadic intermittent showery stuff could linger and be prolonged today, mists potential around sunrise after heat of yesterday breeding muggy conditions, I don’t see a lot of sun breaking out today.
30th Mists haze or cloud around to start the day, some finer weather by mid day as sun gets strong if it does break through the haze.
31st Similar to yesterday with the added ingredient of livelier windy weather but some fairer outlook can also arrive as sun gets stronger during the day. Mizzly and drizzly to western quarters if not higher levels of rain arriving with rivers at high to flood levels……………the conditions in the next phase see floods arriving in greater levels……………..read on

31st May -8th June

Wet, misty hazy foggy but some fair conditions to greet us as well. This is a Hollywood blockbuster weather movie with weather extremes battering Britain, and I can’t wait to see how it pans out. The plot is floods, floods, widespread floods and more floods and heavy rain when it arrives, record breaking weather breaks out. Flash floods to arrive, widespread, some misty dull weather to lowland in valleys and squalls covering limited areas and possibly near tornado outbreaks. Rivers will be flooding valleys, transport routes and flood plains for this phase…………………………………………..
Highs to SE tip of Kent at the outset, Ireland looks to get the worst of the downpours, rivers breach flood levels across the UK. 1st- 2nd looks set for thunderstorms breaking out.

31st Mists hazy start mizzles not unlikely, gusty westerlies, rain heavier to far western regions and to southern regions at this stage but it will move around the UK…..
1st Cold dry fronts from the north, dips to temps eastward with lows, rise in temps here, better temps milder to west but it does look like rain can circulate the UK today reminiscent of Jubilee days last year, oh dear, hope I am wrong….
2nd Showery outlook early morning could improve to sunnier later in day
3rd High humidity, mists near water, fairer to north, but some fair conditions as day progresses, calm outlook before the storm…….
4th Nice day sun with cloud, easterlies prevail so muggy atmosphere around.
5th should be a refreshing weather outlook even if a few showery localised arrive
7th Rise in temps today and over next few days, nebulous windy and muggy conditions, thick haze to lowland valleys, rising temps cloying and muggy, cloudy with cloudbursts expected, not good for air transport, scattered t/storms around UK, torrential rain expected with potential for flash floods and river breaches across UK western areas most affected….

8th-16th June
Some warm temps continue from 7th. Static, misty, muggy even squally to some parts and I expect very heavy precipitation to arrive with 9-11th singled out for first battering and overnight on 15-16th the second round of drenching levels leading to flood alerts. The general rule of thumb is the worst of the rainy weather arrives mostly from sunset to sunrise. More mists and mizzly breakouts to the west for this phase…..sea frets risks to those areas.

8th Strong westerlies gusty at time move away the southerly conditions yesterday and break into strong squally North Westerlies with unsettled outlook as a result of continuing conflicts between highs and lows. Some sun around between cloudiness but cool temps clash with warmth of rising temps in previous days, and there is a risk of whirlwinds and tornado breeding to midlands near eastern quarters.
9th A risk of heavy showers over to the west and south east, but they could also move over and reach our region later in the day, these could be hail sleet and snow mixed in, high ground vulnerable to snow elements more than us. This is Spring competing with summer and winter telling us not to forget to keep the wellies ready along with rain mac…..
10th Some sun might show its face between clouds coming over today, but with heavier outpourings coming overnight into early morning to sunrise on 11th Gusty westerlies keep things cool temps
11th Gusty westerlies and it looks squally for some regions inland misty and dull near rivers and watery areas, temps variable but sometimes trying to rise, Derry regions in Ireland as well as East Anglia seem to have some of the extremes around this date. Evening looks brighter but not for long as the bad conditions keep things dull again by 8 pm onwards approx.
12th Some finer conditions possible before sunrise, eastern areas look vulnerable to squalls whirlwinds and tornado breeding conditions, cold day but some sunshine. Mists and cloud could be difficult to get rid of near valleys by the afternoon and the risk of snow sleet or hail for 10 pm onwards, or it could just be fogs that I can see with news of blizzards biting hard and causing probs….
13th Some quick static outpourings again today but temps look more congenial, still on cool side, with the atmosphere getting fresher cold evening with clearer skies before midnight
14th Skies clearer at the beginning of the day around sunrise, a rise in temps fair outlook, rain again by late afternoon/ evening to northern regions and here, and northerlies revving up trying to clear up the muggy trends of former days…
15th better outlook today but don’t hold your breath….overnight rain expected again into 16th and rivers are by now at flood levels with southern and eastern parts of GB most at risk, sticky muggy day for 16th warmer temps but what a mess to some regions trying to dry out……..gusty NW might help a little but a risk of scattered t/storms also reigns.

Summer Long Range Forecast using original earth friendly satellite technology is already being viewed and will be posted asap……………..

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Weather Forecast 28th May-19th June 2012 W Yorks and Yonder

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28th May-4th June
 Windy, cold but drier phase but t/storms could break out to some regions, west looks likely area. Short spells of showery outbreaks interrupt dry sunny weather.

28th Sun with cloud and cold temps mists and mizzles near watery places in valleys but any poor weather is moving fast so shouldn’t stay around to spoil things too much. Some sunshine expected during the day. Any static outbursts will soon be over.
29th Today is hard to convey as conditions forecast isolated and heavy downpours for some localities. This is a day when you set off to Otley/Bolton Abbey etc from Horsforth/Yeadon in fine weather only to find you end up in a downpour, then get back home to find it was a lovely day  and you missed out on the good weather!! Some sunshine and blue sky expected but cloudier evening. Temps moderate though cooler in localities where rain falls.
30th A fairer day average temps with cold pockets in shade, ground may be wet but gusty wins should be drying things out.
31st Could be a shower after midnight but sunnier by sunrise with whippy westerlies lashing your face in exposed areas.
1st More muggy trends southerly breezes keep things getting too cool but brining in cloudiness. Scattered showery conditions but sunny as fast moving cloud travels over.
2nd Watery Neptune stations today but seems to be bringing mists mizzles and haziness to western regions beyond ours. Mod temps with some scattered showery spells but some sunshiny bits as well
3-4th Gusty easterlies arrive for three days sustaining a static outlook and more showery outbreaks. Showery late 3rd and into early 4th. Sun with cloud for 4th which looks like a better day

4th June-11th
A FINE WEATHER WEEK HURRAH! VENUS SUN conjunction.

GET OUT THE BBQ! I’m booking away days for this phase which looks like the best of the weather for us for Spring so far. When looking at these charts I always have an eye on the best weeks to book away days and so far have felt that no week looked good enough to guarantee long lasting warmth and less humidity and consistent good conditions. This week ticks all the boxes. A Full Moon usually brings good evenings with fine skies that sees everyone heading for bistro or bar by the river or canal and this week should be no exception. For many days to come it looks like flaming June lives up to its reputation………………..( Quick note and update:-  remember I wrote these forecasts and published them early Jan-Feb but happily the hot sunshine arrived earlier than forecasted, and luckily I managed to getaway to enjoy it, hopefully this forecast will also turn out sunnier than expected)
Some exciting astronomical event for this week will hit the headlines and it will be Venus retrograding over the Sun in the sky which you may recall also occurred in 2004. For us this is extra special as it combines with a sensitive position in one of the charts I use for forecasting temperatures, and augurs a high for our region especially.

2004 saw many floods for the Yorkshire region but a staggeringly dramatic flood for Boscastle by August 16th, in the west peninsular which I had only visited a few weeks before the landslides and huge torrents of water ravaged the tiny village. I’m watching events following this years Venus Sun conjunction on 6th June.

4th Cool but sunny, some easterlies still hovering, but the worst of the mists and mizzles look to be near Dundee, Carmarthen, Lewis and Cork areas not ours.
5th A hot day and some great weather in following days it is only once we get to 10th that some mists and haze or even precipitation around 12-2pm can break up the nice weather.
11th brings in some gusty NW but temps rising high so we’ll see what is coming up for the next phase….read on….

4th June-19th

This week continues the good weather trends and summer really settles into some lovely temps and dry weather with some high ozone coming over with blue skies and heady outlook for some fine days. Some gusty winds and breeziness but I doubt they will spoil the outdoor activity and although some scattered spray and showers can be released by the static conditions created by the highs I doubt they will spoil outdoor activity until later in the phase.

11th Slightly unsettled atmosphere can lead to some scattered showers around, some gusty cold NW around but also some blue skies with wool packed clouds temps increasingly warmer as the day progresses
2nd same as yesterday with some gusty westerlies keeping things lively a slight cooling till sun gains strength at mid day
13th Wholesome outdoor conditions along with some easterly flows, some cloud around but higher temp range expected today
14th Temps remain higher range scattered showers over as soon as they begin and quite refreshing
15th -16th weather of previous days should continue with some northerlies around on 15th
17th Brings a high with rising temps and high ozone and some blue sky expected but some warning of a scattered showery outlook after sunrise along with gusty westerlies from today could be some mistiness around near water and in valleys due to higher temps over previous days.
18th Some more cloud around and breezy conditions continue, strong at times
19th A very wet front seems likely to pass over to the eastern parts and could be prolonged precipitation that creates mists and fogs as it travels. High levels of precip expected and the high temps can be a little muggy today, but who cares….summer is clearly on the way and we have just been reminded of that in the previous days…..

 

Enjoy the weather whatever it may be and wherever you are

Weather W Yorks and Yonder 13th May-28th

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12th-20th May

Sometimes you come across configurations that just defy interpretation and I have to confess to being nearly beaten into submission by this quarter moon chart! So many conflicting messages and some of which are new in my experience of looking at charts for the past nine years.
Usually a 3/4 Moon can bring a stormy outlook and this one could be no exception, but whether it hits the W Yorks region is the real issue in my forecasting.
First of all there are many indications of some fine hot weather for this phase, but then again Saturn is casting a glance that seems to break that fine weather showing some gloominess and cloud, spoiling the fine front that otherwise would rule for every day.
On previous occasions the chart display I am looking at has brought  one half of high temps and the other half with lower temps, some charts such as in 1st June 2011 brought 1 whole months precipitation to the SE region in 1 day!
2nd December 2009 Severn and Gloucestershire also had floods just prior to the 2nd Dec chart began to be relevant. I can’t see that much rain falling for us this phase, and I do expect some highs, but I don’t rule out some heavy rainfall to some parts of the UK and I think this will be to the western regions perhaps Cumbria or Wales. There will be a t/storm outbreak but again I found this difficult to time or locate, it may not happen in our region.

There will be some mists and haze around as well but the winds are strong at times and any cloud around will not be left to linger long, and mostly I expect some blue skies with some wool packed cloud.

An overview shows low pressure to the south which means the worst of the weather centres down south and the better weather is to the north…

12th as previously described with some occasional gusty NW
13th looks like the hot spot with temps high and a lovely sunny day expected. famous last words perhaps…..some whippy westerlies occasionally gusty and strong from today turning southerly by evening auguring some warmth but also some muggy conditions even mistiness to some parts
14th Temps stay high  but it could be a little muggy with easterlies around by late evening. Today is a seismic day so will be watching out for major earthquake to be reported…usually 300 a day around the globe but have you noticed only a few make it to the media.
15th If any rain does arrive then late evening looks like a fairly safe bet after 9pm. Westerlies get gustier and more erratic today for the next three days It does seem as if some high pressure helps us remain dry in our region, but I could be wrong about this, there will be some cloud around.
16th looks fine with some winds as described would continue from yesterday
17th around 9 am another scattered showery outbreak could keep everyone alert but generally it seems to remain a fair outlook with wins still active and easterly flows by late evening brining in some muggy trends. Another rain indicator for around 10-11 pm 

18th -20th look drier with temps cooler by 19th and less windy weather, till 20th when some NW come to clear up the confusion and northerlies very strong by late on 20th! Nothing like a northerly for clearing up bad atmospherics! Any rain over these days could be heavier to the east, missing us out completely hopefully but they will provide a fresh atmosphere and even if rain does arrive here it is the kind of rain you like to feel on your face when outdoors.

I shall be watching how this forecast works out very intently and probably wishing I hadn’t continued with the rest of the spring forecast as a result I expect!!

20th May -28th
At first glance I thought this would be a straightforward weather outlook but after reading it the weather turned out to be very busy indeed! This is a phase when normally we could expect nice daytime conditions and any poorer weather to turn up at night but the planets are very active so we can’t take anything for granted just by using one phenomenon alone in forecasting. Here goes, don’t worry I have some lovely weather news for June when you can get the BBQ out and celebrate summer coming in….
20th Expect some sporadic intermittent showery outbreaks at various intervals at start and end of the day especially, hopefully not all day. High humidity and dampness as a disturbed atmospheric outlook prevails. Some sun could break out between cloudiness while the sun is high in the sky. Moderate seasonal temps but rain can lower this to average as it cools the atmosphere
21st Some misty muggy conditions before sunrise but more temperate weather arrives today with temps rising higher than yesterday. Easterlies agree adding to the muggy trend but dryness should prevail.

22nd Some rain around from the morning along with cloudiness and occasional sun spells, but generally fair but windy outlook as day progresses.
23rd Some blue skies around today, moderate to cooler temps range and some clouds also along with some nebulous breeziness.
24th A little breezier than yesterday similar weather to 23rd any rain is expected to come late a night and continue in intervals from early tomorrow.
25th looks like rain arrives in sporadic intervals during today from very early morning and continuing into evening. Lower range temps but high humidity potential for mistiness as well with winds getting stronger
26th Wind is the theme today with gusts whistling around nooks and crannies as cold air brings an abrupt fall in temps and gusty spurts of NW can travel quite speedily at times, especially on exposed areas for the next five days.
27th Cloud muggy start better by mid day but returns by evening which looks like a less volatile weather world. Some sudden outbreaks of static in form of sleet or hail could break up finer spells by evening with temps cooler and skies clearer. Winds strong N Westerlies and gusting to high speed sporadically
28th Temps are set to rise today but winds hand out some cold conditions, some easterlies clash with southerlies and NW, so very blustery air flows. Potential for rain around sunrise, scattered showers likely, but I don’t expect too much precipitation to spoil the day.

 

FEEDBACK 13th-29th April Spring Weather W Yorks and Yonder 2012

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FEEDBACK 13th -21stApril

Gales as forecast arrived to south and Bristol Channel 17th as well as mists to that some parts of England by 18th, so the overview for this phase was intact in that respect. Transport problems hit the headlines due to air flights at Heathrow being grounded due to a fire in one of the planes, but also weather warnings Wednesday 18th saw some slow-moving downpours, with hail and thunder. Some surface water flooding lead to difficult driving conditions, while coastal gales still raged at Bristol. Also, roads may be slippery in heavy hail bringing transport problems as forecast.

The mists and fogs I forecast arrived to the south regions by 17th and 18th.

13th Early showers before sunrise an overcast morning but fresh outdoors with some sun spells by 1 30pm. Temps cold, and sporadic light showers late in day and evening….hail showers for us 4pm approx. So my temps forecast not good for today which wasn’t as mild as expected.
14th Dry overcast am fresh nippy temps a little breeze around, with light intermittent showers further to west at Ilkley during the afternoon etc but remaining dry here
15th Sunny start cloudier by mid day chilly breezes keep things cool in sun, hail outbursts mid afternoon
16th Sunny start clouds thicker by mid day breezy but dry day, temps cool. I forecast potential rain for today but it remained dry, we were breezy here rather than windy.
17th Possible early showers, continuing till 10 00 am cloud with sun spells breezy and milder than yesterday but strong windy outbursts by 1 pm with more prolonged sun spells, showery again by 4 30pm with precipitation coming in with the winds which here became very strong almost in a funnel of speedy vortex bringing hail with it 6-7pm. Fogs and mists warning given out for south regions, so this part of my overview was accurate.
18th a Very rainy day from the start!! No sun shine till late pm………but rainy mizzle and drizzle kept breaking out and continuing into 19th giving us two days of wetness and miserable weather, with floods to Pocklington North Yorks for today….
20th Dry, bright but cloudy some short showery outbursts 12 pm Storms were very widespread to south of England today
21st Chilly, breezy sun with cloud at start of day sleet by 11 20 am more sleet hail outbursts in the afternoon, further to west at Ilkley and beyond had very heavy downpours…no electric blue sky day that I forecast sadly! Getting the washing dry wasn’t an option today either….apologies…..

Not a brilliant forecast this phase, with the prolonged rainy spells 18-19th not factored in, as well as sunshine forecasts being way out as well. The overview was very accurate but the daily forecasts for our locality were not reliable.

FEEDBACK 21st-29th April

Thankfully I got back on track by mid week with this weeks forecast, after being wide of the mark for the last phase. I wasn’t surprised at how the 22nd turned into a rainy day contradicting my prediction as this was a phase that activated the earlier Scorpio perigee and I was watching closely so see what the impact would be and I did make it clear I couldn’t be sure whether it would pour it down or not as this was a new situation not encountered for the past ten years. It did rain and quite heavily at intermittent intervals, and just when you thought it would stop and go away it started up again till overnight into 23rd…….no sunshine around at all to shout about….even the ducks look miserable at this stage…..

23rd was dry by breakfast, though ground was swimming and puddly, and the temps were cold, but the sun attempted to break through by afternoon and if you managed to catch it, there was some warmth coming through to remind us of better times. This didn’t last long though and soon after the clouds threatened rain which became heavy by 5 30 pm approx perhaps confirming the 90% rule I told you about New Moon and better weather sunrise to sunset…
24th Sunny blue sky start deteriorated into overcast mid day, but dry, ave temps and very sunny by 4pm…..no conditions for the sun soak I was hoping for, but certainly an improvement on miserable days before….
25th -26th These two days brought prolonged rainy spells at times very heavy the forecast for these two days was pretty accurate….thank goodness….by 7pm on 25th the rain was torrential here and some showers on 26th also brought torrents causing flooding to roads locally. Visibility was poor due to rainy conditions and hilltops were obscured by mistiness of precip.
27th Short showery outbreaks in the morning, but the sky was cloudy, not sunny but the sun was trying to breakthrough by mid day and afternoon, giving us some brightness to sing about….and temps were much milder with some warmth trying to breakthrough. There were some brisk and lively breezy conditions around. The seaside resort to be today was St Anne’s which experienced a lovely sunny day.
28th Overcast and very windy by evening, some hail outbreaks mid morning and mid afternoon, temps cool skies clearer by evening a reasonable forecast for today though not exactly ”fine” it was better than previous days 29th Rain rain and rainageddon….can’t wait for warmageddon to arrive………….

A very disappointing forecast and no I didn’t see this level of consistent rain and near flood levels for W Yorks, so apologies for that…..though the clue was in my forecast that a same chart last

year ended the drought spell bringing in rain and I also warned that I wasn’t sure of how the apogee opposite perigee would manifest for this phase…..

Read http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is now posted keep coming back to find out

what awaits us in the summer season….go to http://www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

W Yorks and Yonder Long Range Weather Forecast 31st March-13th April

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March 31st-April 6th 

Outlook is for very cold temps to begin with but sunshine to brighten us up, and some warmer temps by 4th helping us look forward to summer. The windy weather continues and I expect reports of a t/storm to some region of the UK.

31st Strong gusty NW, lashing everything it meets, high speed to some regions. Sunny outlook but temps retaining icy pockets, cloud around but clearing as sun grows stronger by mid day. Potential for quick isolated hail outburst late afternoon

1st – 4th April some cloud around with nippy icy pockets, but lots of sunshine to enjoy by mid day. It’s the winds that create problems during these few days, any showery outbreaks icy cold hail or sleet, look set to arrive around midnight
4th Should see temperatures rising a little, wind still strong and gusty, some sunshine with cloud. Temps on high ground expected to drop to lows.
5th Same as 4th but cloudy or misty start and more cloud around in the evening, quick hail/sleet showers by midnight. Temps getting warmer with humidity around producing some warmer almost tropical outpourings to some regions beyond ours. Winds should be less active by today.
6th Sunny, and looks like  the warmest day of all, but some mists and clouds as a result. Some broody easterlies and southerlies warding off the cold pockets of previous days. A misty cloudy start but temps getting much more agreeable as day wears on.

6th-13th April

A similar chart to this one occurred in October 2009 when heavy rain arrived giving floods to Scotland. I do expect t/storms to be reported to some regions of the UK.

Well first of all we have the infamous perigee moon that always brings headlines to read about some major weather induced incident…I hesitate to say disaster as I don’t want to follow global warmers who hog headlines with disaster warnings all the time…since Aristotle’s day as it happens….still on with the weather…

This perigee moon gave a me a headache as earlier in February ( the same week I am writing this I might add) when I fully expected good old Scorpio Moon to bring heavy rain if not flooding, I was humiliated by the total drought that ensued!! Yes I VERY ACCURATELY forecast a weather system coming down from Foroyar which it did, and resulted in a high pressure system that blocked the Moon in Scorpio from delivering the floods I expected….Harrumph.  Iwas so annoyed at not expecting this to happen! So much so, that I hesitated to deliver this spring forecast which I was working on at the time, and felt like throwing in the towel on astro forecasting!
I still might have to if I have to resort to using jargon such as high and low pressure and isobars which is not what I want to do.

In spite of the above, there will be some fine weather to enjoy and evenings for this phase usually bring pleasanter conditions, while there will be some windy weather and some rain around–well it is a perigee moon phase…..but there is also a massive drought indicator as well planet wise…
Oh and if you are laughing at the fact the moon perigee has anything to do with weather….shame really as there are some immaculate studies that show a significant correlation between high precipitation at the time of perigee moons, though of course not all perigees will bring high levels of rainfall.
6th as forecast previously

7th Some mists or cloud around, muggy conditions with easterlies and southerlies active keeping conditions seasonally mild outlook is for rain heavy at times for late afternoon with some clearer skies late evening and overnight

8th Some showery outbreaks 3-5 am, unsettled atmosphere with cloudiness around till later in afternoon, temps cooler than yesterday, some sporadic breeziness southerly and westerly for today and tomorrow.

9th Same as yesterday with some potential for sporadic hail and sleet outbreaks. Sun with cloud during day.

10th-11th Cloudy start but sunnier afternoon and evening, temps cool. 11th looks brighter than 10th

12th Sun with cloud around, temps warming up, some easterly breeziness and clear evening skies good for outdoors and gardening or even a stroll…famous last words!

13th  Sunshiny start and looks like some nice spring temps remind us summer is just around the corner…easterly breezes keep the warmth notched up.

Read amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and the WHOLE OF Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is nearly ready to post to keep coming back to find out what awaits us in the summer

season….go to www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

 

Apologies for the display in this forecast, can’t figure why changes aren’t being made by the edit in wordpress….hopefully it wont affect the weather outlook:-)

FEEDBACK Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder 15th-30th March 2012

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Feedback 15th-22nd March
Wet and very windy weather burst out across Scotland and NW regons as forecast for this phase..
16th sunshine with cloud, dry day and very breezy by 6pm, static not released till early next day…
17th rainy very early around daybreak? sunnier pm and a t/storm by 5 pm, not a lot of rainfall as mentioned in the forecast.
18th Sunny day, fluffy cloud but cold temps.no rain here, so this forecast perhaps a day out and should have been recorded for 17th instead, though some rain may have arrived to some localities let me know if it was yours?
19th Yes good forecast with gusting breezy becoming windy weather, cold with sun spells, very unsettled
20th Yes a very accurate forecast some gusty windy spurts but some blue sky with cloud around…note the warning of some temps rising….very accurate as it heralded the warmth of the week that did follow and cheered us all up.
21st and 22nd as forecast except no hail outbreaks noted and some haze around 22nd with the sun.

Feedback 22nd-30th March
This was a drought phase, as forecast and at the start we did have some brisk winds, though these didn’t get strong in our region. Strong breezes broke out most evenings, not strong winds!
Here’s what happened, not too far out but not 100% accurate either…
23rd Sunny day with cloud
24th was thick fog sunny later in the day but haziness lingered the same on 25th as forecast, with nippy temps but some fine skies once fogs had cleared.
26thTemps still nippy but lovely skies with sunshine, these first few days brought fogs and  frostiness overnight rather than the showers I had forecast…..
27th-29th brought some fine weather with temps rising silghtly earlier than I had forecast for 29th
30th Was cloud at the outset but clearer by mid day with sunshine and better skies for the afternoon but temps were cold out of the sun as all week really, and if you thought wearing summer clothes was the best way to respond to the hysterical reporting of ‘a heatwave’ then you may have ended up with influenza. Remember ”ne’er cast a clout till May is out, ” no matter how sensational the weather headlines may be.

I couldn’t find any tornado outbreak for England for the dates I mentioned there might be one, and am disappointed this year with my forecast for wind levels, in spite of updating the calcs in my data prog..Of course the US had a mass outbreak of tornados around this time and perhaps any mini UK ones didn’t hit the headlines, as usually they are not as intrusive in our country. Sad that so few get reported for our climate when I know we get them often in my region sometimes raging up the street overnight but no one bats an eyelid…..

Forecast 12th-20th October W Yorks and Beyond Forecast

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12th-20th October
Cool and breezy phase with some freaky windy weather extremes hitting the headlines, Durham and NW looks vulnerable to this system and headlines could come in from those regions as well as SE.
 W Yorks singled out to be battered by strong winds and we could see some wind damage here and overturned vehicles as well. Try not to plan a journey across exposed regions at this stage….Heavy showers expected but weather more settled to second half of this phase..

12th Potential for showery outbreaks 10-11 am less cloudy later in the morning with some hope for sunshine during the day with better skies by night time though some mists/fog in low lying places late evening. Temps seasonally cool but clouds keep conditions muggy
13th Rain around sunrise, intermittent showery weather, heavy but refreshing, temps variable with rain cooling things down but some sun spells bring warmth by mid day and beyond. Winds could begin to rev up today becoming gusty if not violent and destructive….north westerly…over next few days…
14th Fluctuating temps again, with cold from wind and rain passing over UK regions west to east reaching our region from beginning and end of day but some clearer skies possible 10 am – 5pm but we’re likely to be watching some freaky windy weather unfold today and tomorrow. Seismic conditions are also high over the coming days to 23rd…
15th Sun with cloud cool temps but clearer skies, sudden showery outbreaks 5-7pm Lovely overnight clear skies.
16-17th Clearer outlook southerlies bring in more moderate temps, sun with cloud, and risk of sudden showers late afternoon and evening could even be quick thundery outbursts by 17th when northerlies attempt to purge the bad weather.
18th Clearer skies, spartan outbreak attempts early morning 18th but sunny by afternoon, later afternoon outbreak spartan, on 19th. Temps rising moderately
20th Could be showery….read on to see next blog….

You can read the following online account of how well  my weeklyweather forecast from 4th-8th Oct fared in a test of skill between myself, leading met John Kettley the Met Offfice AND……a penguin and a baby……yes really a penguin and a baby…………..http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/3862336/You-better-ask-a-baby-about-weather.html here….

Read     http://amazingweather.wordpress.com     for longer range predictions/weather forecasts for AUTUMN 2011 or go to                     https://ukweatherbrief.wordpress.com
Read     http://learnastrometeorology.wordpress.com    to find out some interesting information about weather forecasting
visit …    www.starsite.org.uk/1491.html  for more discussion astro meteorology and access FREE  lessons in weather forecasting and lots of free book downloads with much more..

I would like to add at this point that many people have said the weather varies in their locality to my forecast. This is because we have micro climates and while it can be sunny outside your window you will often find in our region that it rained at the end of the street. You would be overwhelmed if all outbursts wee reported in a forecast, but be assured the generally trend should prevail over the phase forecast for W Yorks and beyond

Written by tricia astro meteorologist

October 11, 2011 at 11:37 am