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AUTUMN 2015 Long Range Weather West Yorks N Yonder

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Autumn Weather 2015.

Using satellite technology, all astro mets are able to see further ahead than traditional met methods allow, and use ancient satellite technology tried and tested for thousands of years.

I forecast for W Yorks N Yonder to make sure I can monitor my success rate as met forecasts often are different to what the outcome is.

Because micro weather patterns often circulate, such as mists, mizzles to valleys as Addingham, Ilkley and Otley, while hail and sleet can also travel micro style, as do some static showers, it takes too long to track them and would make the weather report too unwieldy to read, so if the forecast is for dry but over the road from you there is a shower or mist, this is the reason why.

10th-20th Oct looks stormy with flash floods likely, and Christmas could see high levels of precipitation with threat of floods for the season for some regions.

 

tarneasedale       Sept 21st-28th
Many changes as equinox arrives 23rd September with shifting planetary positions and move to closest perigee Moon 2015, adversely affecting the weather. Flash floods expected to headline to locations 24 east longitude of Britain. Rains will be heavy to East Britain around 26th, with 25th beginning the breeding of stormy outbursts to low lying areas in west regions; Ireland vulnerable to these, but they will travel over our way before moving eastwards. Expect choppy seas growing wilder over coming days with high tides causing probs on coastlines with mists n mizzles more likely to eastern shores.

 

14th-16th September sees more afflictions to East Asia regions such as China, Taiwan/Japan areas.

21st Sun with cloud, temps low to mod for season, some NE breezes, and any rainy outbursts will be further out to western regions of W Yorks.
22nd Clearer skies promising a fair day around sunrise but sporadic showers expected to come in as day progresses, heavier to west. Unsettled by late eve along with localised static outbursts to our region and yonder.
23rd Very unsettled today as the Sun moves into the southern hemisphere, with temps variable but some blue skies around and cool with much colder conditions to high or exposed places such as the Chevin, moors and highlands. Sudden sporadic micro hail or sleet showers can move around but wont be long lasting from 7-8 am and intermittently t/out the day and into next morning.

24th More rainy outbursts expected combined with northerlies trying to clear away the unsettled weather of previous days.

25th -26th Gusty westerlies around with a bright start 25th combining with gusty westerlies, but some stormy outcomes breeding to low lying areas indicating more unsettled weather, with very heavy rains forming flash floods expected further eastwards as referred to above, East Anglia may also see heavy rains. Mists, mizzles fogs and drizzles to eastern Brit generally.
27th A faster moving weather system begins to flow with warmer temps today but mugginess, could be misty start, cloud around and humidity. NE speedy winds arrive today

churchMatterdale28th Sept-4th Oct
Temps begin to climb this phase peaking around 3rd. Expect clearer overnight skies generally, but some mugginess and clouds delivers mists and high humidity with clouds preventing sun shining fully during the day. The East coast of Britain gets the highs of the season, so book now to make the most of what looks like a mini Indian Summer coming in….

Some of the disturbances of previous week still operate and in W Yorks and Yonder there will be still some electrical outbursts with power lines affected, more fires to buildings could be in news.

28th Some warmth but also static outbursts. Winds strong NW with high areas more vulnerable to these speedy outbursts.

29th-4th looks likely to have showery outbursts due to rising temps, so humidity is high but rains can be refreshing. Winds die out after 30th.
1st Can be calm, misty, muggy in areas such as Addingham, Ilkley and other valleys, but higher ground should show a clearer outlook. A sultrier outcome prevails to southern Britain where mists and mizzles due to higher temps will be found. Around 2–5 am some mists and mizzles with cloud around to many Brit areas, but clearing for a better evening later in the day.
2nd-4th Windy/breezy with clearer skies indicating sunshine and warmth from sun and seasonal highs. Could be some sea disturbances NW Scotland region 1st-2nd so watch out for ocean news if you are a seabird.

cold sunny4th Oct-13th Oct
Unusual Autumnal weather circulating and I had to look further than W Yorks and yonder to see what is going on and how it will break over our region as it travels. no guarantees due to some conflicting patterns making it difficult to see which would prevail.

Some sea disturbances moving around SE Anglia, Kent regions will create hazards for sea goers around 5-7th….but 6th is most likely day for culmination. Fruits and flowers affected by either drought for some regions, and humidity for others mould breeding conditions seem widespread.
Fogs mists and mizzles prevail more to eastern quarters, with some mini thundery showers circulating t/out this phase due to static build up as rising warmth hits falling lows.

4th Scattered showery outburst attempts from 6-10 am, with temps warming mod to high seasonal temps but causing static outbursts of hail and sleet by the evening rush hour.
5th Drier sun with cloud.
6th-7th A lot going on today with semi tropical lows off-shore East Anglia/Kent coastal regions migrating north-eastwards towards northern Midlands and further westwards during next few days. Troubled waters off-shore expected so check seagoing services.
Expect clouds to W Yorks and yonder as this humidity rises north, but fairer outcomes to our region than these southern parts. Further west of us on 6th another system shows some static creeps in around mid day and with an easterly wind/weather pattern we get some muggy atmospherics to contend with Some rain could break out but is more likely in southern GB and western areas.
By 7th Some mini cloudburst expected mostly in valleys where haziness is likely to prevail around watery places. Static, hazy and humid fungal, breeding weather travelling from S E towards NW regions.
8th-9th Cloud, mists mizzly, sultry and still but also foggy breakouts affecting traffic flow by rush hour after work, so visibility not clear. This looks like a damp wet and muggy day with southerly air flows keeping things muggy.
10th cooler temps around with clearer skies trying to break out some gusty breezes or winds helping move clouds away but this could be a day when thundery outbreaks arise, more evident to eastern parts.
11th Rain, sleet clouds and easterlies keeping things overcast, damp conditions if not heavy rain, fogs and mists to coast and inland valleys. It is fairer much further north from 10th-13th and we benefit too fairing better than southern regions, but with news of snow on mountains of Scotland not out of the question.
12th Looks cold overcast, gloomy and bleak with more lightening/ thundery outbursts….clearer better even sunnier outlook by evening around sunset…but read on will double check this…

Grinton ftpath12th-20th Oct
An exceedingly excitable weather phase with violent and intense electrical t/storms with lightening strikes, strong winds and floods expected, causing travel chaos and some damage to transport routes including M 62 and M1 and roads adjoining and city wide. Here is a quick tour rather than a detailed analysis……this is a very spectacular, dramatic and awesome weather phase. Normally a new moon brings rain from evenings into the night and at the outset this is the case, but with such strong celestial combinations it could be overruled and due to so much going on it would take too much space to record every detail of it.

12th-13th sees a taste of stormy outbursts stronger to western extremities i.e. Cornwall, Wales, NW Scotland and centring on Irish Sea. Ireland gets rising temps while mainland GB and W Yorks and yonder gets clearer skies but lower temps and we will hear of hail, sleet even snow to high ground. N Westerlies become strong and powerful during this phase. Winds will be howling around too.

13th-15th fairer days with 13th showing last pitch of rainy outbursts 6-8 am likely to finish off outpourings coming in from 12th with a fairer day to follow. Temps will be cold but skies will be clear and blue but winds will be strong and blustery blowing off your hat. Some quick showery outbursts intermittent, but mostly blue skies in between. 14th should be drier and more reasonable weather although a few scattered showers may break out, but by 15th strong winds continue with rising temps to west and t/storms can cause problems to transport routes.

16th More cracking electrical outbursts and there will be high amounts of speedy rainfall potentially creating floods to routes and places near rivers and lakes. Flash floods more likely further to western areas as we see heavy rain moving eastwards too. For us there should be some warmth and clearing occasionally to bluer skies with sunny spells alternating with sudden hail or sleet. Do prepare for the worst even if the skies seem to promise the best when you set off as these systems are speedy and can catch up with you with little warning.

17th Flood problems still trouble western regions where fogs and mists create low visibility, we may have fairer weather but the NW winds can soon scatter rogue showers around intermittently.
18th Storms still circulating with NW very strong it will be 19th before this drama of cracking static weather passes on leaving some destruction in its wake.

cold moors20th-27th Oct
At last a calm after the stormy outbursts of Autumn of the last few weeks. Some sunshine and good outdoors weather to come.

Temps are cooler but at least accompanied by calmer weather. Frosts likely but we will see some sunshine along the way.
20th-21st Some cloud around but a calmer autumn outlook with sunshine once mists clear, mini sporadic outbursts likely to 21st but this wont spoil outdoor events.

22nd Some gusty spurts around cheeky at times with cold frosts to keep you on your toes.

23rd Could see some precipitation, intermittent by late afternoon, cloud, mists and some unsettled weather but fair weather should prevail during the day.

24th Cold and cutting with gusty NW breezes/winds…this looks hazardous out to seas to Eastern regions. Frosts highly likely to form.

25th Looks like another good days for outdoors with fresh atmosphere, but very cold, though exhilarating. Some NW to nip your exposed extremities too.

26th Sporadic hail and sleet showery stuff around with gusty breezes turning windy and keeping things cold feeling wintery. Frosts also likely.
27th Very strong windy weather today likely to turn into gales to NW and on high ground..

High Force227th Oct-3rd Nov
Strong winds and gales continue for the first two days of this phase, blustery weather as temps decline steadily. This is when we glimpse winter ahead.
Clearer skies at night allow temps to fall but this will please sky gazers.
It will be mountains, Pennines and moors that get the worst of some of the blasts blowing over with snow likely on very high ground.

27th-28th Very strong winds around with sudden spurts of speedy velocity, cold and cutting. Winds bring some rain on its wings and by 28th snow on high ground is expected, along with some sleet and strong NW Frost expect late night 28th. Cold, sunshine and cloud and windy weather for these two days with exhilarating fresh air to take your breath away.
29th Still windy but not as wild as previous days. Sunshine after a frosty start some roads could be icy. It seems too cold to allow rain to fall, but beyond W Yorks, to far west may have some outpourings today
30th The day seems sunny with cloud around, could be some freezing mists around valleys and low lying roads near watery areas.
31st Temps peak to coldest but a very bright sunny day expected.
1st-3rd Breezy conditions which can turn into whippy westerlies, frost around, some sunshine with cloud…..but read on for 3rd.

cold3rd-10th Nov
Indications are of a more settled phase with some gentle showery weather mostly overnight, and coldest temps gradually subsiding as 7th arrives.
3rd Looks to have sunshine and northerlies less active, but still chilly. Rain expected overnight into early 4th, bonfire piles will need to be kept dry if you want a good blaze for bonfire night— a little rain stills a great wind. Cloud and sunshine around for 4th -5th with more cloud expected to cover views of Taurids meteor showers. Cool but dry for 5th.
6th Looks fair by mid day some mists around watery places. Sudden winds spurts or breezy outbursts around today.
7th -10th Temps seasonally milder, with some showery outbursts. Clouds around with sun spells and mists/fogs likely.
11th Brings rain for the evening which will move eastwards overnight.

Leverswater Coppermine11th-19th Nov
We miss the weather dramas to be witnessed globally for this phase.
Temps still on seasonally mod to mild range and some fair days ahead until winds begin to be very lively from 15th.

11th can bring some showery outburst mid morning but this should be a fair day with sunshine.
12th Taurids are lively for sky watchers at night and sudden wind spurts will keep clouds moving to give occasional view of the night sky.
13th Northerlies seem strong today but outlook is for fair with fresh atmosphere after a cloudy night.
14th Rain or showers could miss our region, though some tail ends could be blown in by the wind mid morning. Cool with sunshine likely.
15th Some mists and clouds around but the afternoon should be sunny and fine. Windy outdoors
17th-18th Scattered showers likely, intermittent and sporadic turning to hail and sleet showers by 18th. The winds get extra lively for next few days. The Leonids may be difficult to spot with some cloud around.
19th Continuing windy with sun and clouds but also some showery weather later in the day……read on

broodyUllswater19th-25th Nov
Not a pleasant outlook at all could turn out stormier than the outlook forecast for some isolated regions. News of landslides highly likely. Regions around John O Groats, Dundee, Gloucester, Cornwall, Blackpool, Keswick, Wigton regions look to encounter the worst of this weather and landslides could affect mountains and coastal areas.

Mists and mugginess can prevail with unsettled weather to come. Risk of high levels of rain from mid afternoon 19th creating isolated flash floods and very damp humid atmosphere.. Damp and oppressive weather around, not good for planning outdoor activities.
The 20th is unsettled with rains continuing and shows a little sun, with a lot of cloud also some winds racing around taking heavy rains eastwards. 22nd will see mini whirlwinds to some localities.
Excess cloud around and temps lowering again after 21st with potential for ice to form. Snow for mountains and Pennines peaks by 23rd when winds get wild and nasty, with cold, frosty outlook for us 23rd/ 24th onwards. 25th Continues the dark, dull gloomy weather with hazes, mists and fogs around and variable winds battling it out in sudden spurts.

frosty25th Nov 2nd Dec
This phase should see an eventual turnaround on previous gloomy wet damp conditions. Temps get much colder and bring frost over, some iciness expected and it looks too cold to rain though some sporadic hail or sleet could affect isolated locales. Weather settles into cold frosty and less agitated by 27th for a few days and by 1st December it is looking very wintery.
Winds turning northerly to clear away the bad and bring in more settled outlook but will be chilly. 25th-29th has clearer calmer weather with sunshine, overnight frosts expected. 30th holds potential for showers around London areas, and 2nd could bring some winter showers to our regions.

3rd-11th December
Weather system flowing in from the East could be making headlines, as it did 13th 14th August when heavy rains came over from Spain and beyond. Some static conditions mean we can expect a few sleet and hail outbursts for this phase. Flash floods expected to cause problems to the western areas the general trend is for very heavy precipitation 3rd-5th causing more flash floods circulating to some southern regions too as with 13th/14th August.
This phase will prove extra stormy for Cork, Lewis and Stornaway with snow for Glencoe expected and a little turbulent for us too.

Some precipitation potential lingers to the west threatening to travel here to dampen our parade early morning on 3rd but we should see some sunshine breaking out in the afternoon with clearer skies by eve.
4th brings in some invigorating trends with blue skies and sunshine but winter temps leave an intense chill.
5th A little unsettled today and a mix of precipitation potential so winter outbursts likely with snow, sleet and hail in the mix, and some nippy breeziness to contend with.
6th Onwards continues chilly but less likelihood of showery outbursts, although 7th could see winter outbursts to eastern parts after sunrise. 8th sees northerlies active while 9th and 10th is cold but with sunshine around and some blue skies mid afternoon could bring some winter outburst around mid afternoon both days some sleet and snow expected.
11th Is when static brings down more cutting rain, hail, sleet and snow

The last three days will see likelihood of higher levels of winter showers crossing Gloucester, John o Groat’s regions.

Malham astrometeorology11th-18th Dec
Gusty wind patterns for this phase but these can send clouds scurrying along and help dry out any winter precipitation.
11th sees some strong hail and sleet showers with gusts of NW. Air travel could be disrupted around these days, especially for those going to Iceland to see Santa, make sure your travel is insured. Disruptive weather mid Atlantic will interfere with journeys crossing them. Mists and fogs potential for early morning today and 12th, with some regions of UK seeing snow and sleet attempts.

13th-16th NW gusty weather, some haze, mist and cloud but with temps on the seasonally mod to mild side these won’t be freezing mists. Some showery outbursts around 8-10 pm on 13th, and evening to sunrise from 14th-15th with sunshine and cloud during the day. 16th continues the scattered showers theme but these will not be long lasting, though will cause mists to valleys.
17th Cloudy and misty start looks likely to be more cloud than sun today, Rain could be heavy over to far west regions
18th Doesn’t look healthy….read on

wintertreetopsastrometeorology18th-25th December
Temps move towards very cold and wintery, turning to frosty by the last few days, with some bleak weather around for Christmas shopping.
The West coastal regions get covered in fogs mists and mizzles around the winter solstice on 22nd this year when the sun i giving Australia a dose of summer, and bringing us an awareness of how gloomy winter can be.

18th Winds with rain, scattered showery outlook rain could be heavy and NE Scotland looks likely to feel the heavy rains expected, some flash floods likely, but W Yorks seems to avoid these as fast moving weather systems move up from the south.
19th Cold temps with southerly systems active. Could turn frosty and snow to high ground highly evident. Air will be crisp and light snow, sleet and wintery outbursts continue from yesterday, some sunshine with cloud gathering gloomy during the day.
20th Could be muggy with some gusty weather at times very cold outlook but sun with cloud mid day, cloud more likely to northern parts and some of W Yorks, fairer weather to south.
21st Strong winds, spasmodically gusty and speedy at times look set to strike today and looks like blizzards herald the solstice. I expect hail, sleet and snow storms to develop as unsettled weather breaks out for 21st-22nd. Freezing fogs and mists develop to western coastal regions with some tidal traffic upsets due to low visibility/choppy seas. Expect transport routes to be affected, air travel included. Some fairer outlook trying to break out by pm on 22nd, but it will develop icily on high terrain by evening and overnight. Bleak weather for these two days.
23rd Outlook gloomy at times. Colder but less wild, sunshine with cloud by mid day with some northerlies trying to battle away the S Easterlies.
24th Fairer start and sunshine looks likely to prevail with occasional gusty breezes/winds fair to mod in strength, but some mists are likely, also some winter showers coming over W Yorks after mid day. This system is travelling eastwards on a very cold day and will affect eastern regions by 25th.
25th Happily the Northerlies are active today and these always clear away the bad weather–eventually. Wintery showers could greet the day around sunrise.
Full Moon Christmas Day indicates cold, frosty weather in winter. Mists break out, with some drizzles and mizzles to lowlands from Devon to East coast of Yorkshire.
The next few days will be very settled for W Yorks with clear evening skies but lots of frost around. However, the SE regions i.e East Anglia don’t seem to fare so well and some localised flash flooding may cause problems there and other southern regions, heavy precipitation expected.

I don’t see snow for us on 25th, but Boxing Day does show frost, potentially snowfall or sleet and hail by late evening, depending on how high your location is.

New Years day looks a better bet weather wise with a fair outlook for those going to the races.

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UK WEATHER BRIEF SPRING 2015: Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder

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Best dog ever

Best dog ever

First of all apologies to those people who have signed up for regular reading, life and the universe had other plans for recent seasons.
I can’t promise normal service resumed, but promise I will make every effort to do so as it would be reckless to ignore years of skill developed by using astrology to forecast weather.

I can’t promise 90%-100% accuracy for this forecast as I know for sure I abandoned looking at the wind charts settling instead for expedience and using indicators in the other charts instead. I do expect 60%-80% and for sure some weeks may even move towards being 100% accurate, and I do hope this will be the June part of the forecast which will bring in some fine weather if not a flaming June living up to normal expectations.

Spring Weather 2015

The New Moon on 20th March reached perigee on 19th so is not quite a massive headline supermoon but will bring some unsettled weather as this is also the day of the equinox, and the sun rising into the northern hemisphere along with the moon we will see some fast moving weather systems, so don’t expect sunshine or rain to stay around for long. However, this perigee is quite long lasting as some of my weather buddy friends point out (noteably the ever watchful Ken Paone) and Robert Nolle calls it a ‘stealth supermoon’ due to it forming an eclipse while perigee lasts from 13th-27th March capturing the equinoctial phase.

Not only that NM being at the end of one sign and ready to move into another we can expect trends to vary quite dramatically from the outset. The last time we had a New Moon at this stage of motion heralding Spring, was 1996, however this wasn’t eclipsed. I failed to find any records of weather drama for the UK, which is not to say there wasn’t; just that most websites I searched had headlines for other months and years than this. I do expect some spring tides to be wary of at coastal places, with sea frets and mists more to the east coast, but if you like the spectacle of sea horses and crashing waves the coast is where you need to be for this these few days. An eclipse can often nullify expected outcomes, whilst a perigee Moon can often exaggerate them, whilst a planet moving from water to a fire sign can often bring spectacular results all on its ownsome. Certainly the Sun cuspal for the equinox on 20th will bring in some static atmospheric turbulence and with the Moon in tow this indicates mists and fogs.

I’ll be watching the eastern central Philippine area to see if a hurricane arrives there around 20th-21st, but it will be fast moving and short-lived.

Here is a brief tour only:

 

It's a bit windy20th-27th March

20th Very unsettled with one weather system soon replacing another in quick succession: cloudier if not gloomy to some areas by evening, and some nebulous wind flow.
21st Wetness seems to stay to the west of us, though some may blow over to parts of W Yorks, with some hail and sleet showers rapidly arising then stopping suddenly as it began, more likely to south of England, but in fast moving pockets. Usually weather like is accompanied with sunshine, but this can soon be overtaken by cloud as well so any sun spells may not be long lasting. 8-10pm could also see more outbursts as described. Some cold whippy northerlies and westerlies could be attempting to clear way the unsettled weather from today.
22nd Clouds around, humidity hints at warmer temps, clouds and mist by late evening.
23rd Some warmth could break out today but humidity rules so misty pockets could spoil visibility, especially at the start of the day (this means at the turn of day around midnight onwards beyond 1am) so take care whilst travelling throughout Yorkshire and beyond….Some cold pockets out of the sun where breezes wind around corners and some cloud around.
24th I expect some showery outbursts today evening the likely time centreing around 3-4pm. Mists and clouds rule especially denser to the east regions, Spring April like showers highly likely so don’t take a sunny spell for granted. Still some warmth around so a heartening trend for gardeners with bulbs enjoying the weather. I also expect some whippy westerlies to be active today, more so to the NW regions.
25th Cooler temps sun with cloud around, micro hail and sleet outbreaks, particularly in the evening, interfere with sunny spells.
26th NW winds in spurts bring in icy temps to high and exposed places, but ensure clouds get blown away faster leaving a promise of sunshine as well……………………but not for long……………………….read on

Must get my hair done27th March to 3rd April

Rain over the West will slowly, oh so slowly, beginning to move into West Yorkshire from today and will bring some heavy outbursts which will leave roads flooding as it moves on. I expect parts of Cumbria to be vulnerable to this from the 26th, as well as some places in W Yorks where rivers and lakes and flood plains will be witness to the incoming deluge. Ireland, Wales and Western Isles of Scotland will also take in this system from the outset. The East of use fares slightly better, but rain will travel in their direction by 28th when it is heavier to W Yorks before moving east.

Winds will still be keeping temps cool on high or exposed areas and will be quite brisk and Nor westerly

The 31st sees off the worst of this slow moving system but is still unsettled, while the 1st is calmer in outlook with no surprises weather wise, and the 2nd brings cooler conditions to E Anglia but fairer weather to the north, some easterlies threatening to spoil things again with a bit of gloom and some unsettled winds around, but by evening the sun is beckoning and promises a better day to enjoy for 3rd….enjoy……………..a lovely Spring day at last.

4th — 12th April

Some migrating lightening and t/storms likely making it difficult to positively locate them without taking a long time, but they can be expected during daytime rather than the night. Eastern parts of UK, East Anglia especially will see a lot of this type of weather.

4th potential showery outbursts by mid day with sporadic hail sleet type outbursts in some pockets of W Yorks during mid afternoon, so sunshine in between these outbursts. Eastern UK could see some of these outbursts
5th Rain likely to move down eastern coastal areas, dry to W Yorks but cool, very cool and lots of static around. Some occasional sun spells
6th Thunderstorms look likely mid morning to North, South and Eastern parts of Britain, W Yorks may get some inward moving systems but for us this clears by 1-2pm when sunshine and better weather should break out. North Westerlies strong and active but will hopefully take away the static stormy breakouts.
7th Cool day with some sunshine around but NW winds are strong and cutting, on high ground and coming downslope so watch out when travelling in valleys where wind tunnels can create problems.
8th Cold day with some cloud around , winds are still active keeping things cold but blowing clouds away to leave some gaps with blue sky coming through. Unsettled outlook by evening.
9th Much better outdoor weather today temps can be warmer than previous days
10th Cool but sunny with temps warming up. Winds could prove lively and highly excitable at times.
11th Should be a better Spring day with some warmth around come the 12th ……………………………………

Idol stone

My mum is so going to miss me this time of the year

12th-18th April
A generally fair but blustery phase, overall cool, breezy just about says it all, but there should some sunshine around too with Spring warmth for first few days.
The winds excited on 10th may continue to affect NW regions which could encounter comms and transport probs, while from 12th-14th hail sleet and snow outbreaks to NW Brit regions could see snowfall on highland areas.

12th Cold start; warmth from Sun by mid day and afternoon. Some mists could arise near watery places. Temps rising with southerlies.
13th Warmth around mid day and pm, but this could trigger a quick shower or two mid afternoon scattered and intermittent until before sunrise on 14th. Some mists also due to warmth creating moisture.
14th Some dampness remains but temps mod for season and some sunshine could break out between clouds, with potential for rain after mid day.
15th Cool, breezy and cloud around, easterlies bring in some gloomy conditions, lowering temps.
16th A slow moving weather pattern with clouds around, lower temps but it will be fairer to areas to in North and South Britain. Some gentle southerlies around too.
17th A fairer outlook for today.

18th-25th April

Temps look like being seasonally lower range for us, but down in Aus they could be battling the usual treetop fiery outbursts so watch the weather news for these headlines……

Overall drier weather should prevail until last two days, with some good spring-like days emerging, notably 21st- 22nd when ozone highs should keep everyone happy, so try get outdoors for the spring lift, but wrap up warmly…..

18th Southerly flows, some sunshine to enjoy during the day but by mid night it looks like some scattered stormy outbreaks stop play outdoors.
19th A few micro showers around breakfast time and again by teatime 6pmish but some sunshine in between but remember temps will be lower than usual, though some warmth from the sun at mid day onwards.
20th Should turn into a lovely spring day, a great day for getting sheets dry but watch out for those whippy keen westerlies if you are kite flying or ballooning..
21st The ozone highs arrive so expect a sunny day; cold, if not nippy, but great for outdoors. Northerlies keep things cooler but fresher.
22nd Winds northerly then whippy westerly and pretty speedy by late evening could be lively but at least they keep any clouds from turning things grey……..but
23rd-24th are the days when rain may arrive to spoil things heavier to mid day on 24th when it should subside…temps lower still to that of previous days.


25th April-4th May

The eastern coastal regions look to be enjoying some sea mists due to getting the best of the sunshine from the outset with E Anglia getting what highs of Spring are operating, but it should also be reasonably spring like with sunshine to W Yorks at the start. Temps fresh and moderately Spring like with some improved temps by 27th, but not for long….

25th-26th Sudden air frosts but generally fair, sun with cloud around. Good for photography so get the camera ready
27th Sees better temps slowly arising along with less cloud
28th Some mists or cloudiness bring potential for showery outbursts, here by around 7pm
29th Cooler, sun with cloud and mists to watery areas
30th Fast moving system now, with showery outburst potential before sunrise over next few days, clouds and mist around to western areas so don’t expect too much sunshine to stay around today.
1st –3rd Breezy, cool Westerlies argue with Easterly flows unsettling the atmosphere and allowing for some gloom to slowly develop over next few days. Frosty with intermittent hail or sleet showers in between sun spells leaving it cooler but with sun around by 3rd.

My Favourite Place Friar's Crag Walk

My Favourite Place Friar’s Crag Walk

4th-11th May

This phase doesn’t look good at all. Weather headlines for Cumbria expected, generally most of Britain will not enjoy great conditions. Conflicting weather systems leave things very unsettled from the outset with clouds and winds keeping the sun at bay. Temps stay below normal range until 6th when things can warm up, but this may just trigger mists and mizzles afterwards.

4th Very unsettled outlook develops and prevails over next few days with gloomy easterlies arguing with westerlies, and ain may result, heavy at times.
5th Could see stormy outbursts with NW regions getting the worst of the weather, clearer by evening
6th Better day after a misty cloudy start cool but some blue skies around with breezes keeping temps cool.
7th Some warming of temps today but clouds around, mists develop later in the day near watery places
8th Some rain expected around sunrise, if not continuing sporadically from night before. Cloud around not sure if the sun will get out today.
9th Skies should be clearer temps less harsh but winds variable with intermittent sharp, scattered showers expected along with sun spells
10th Looks like the better weather is on its way………………..read on……….

11th May-18th

Not a very good outlook with some turbulence still operating though East Anglia looks to be the lucky part of the UK with better conditions augured. Temps still staying below seasonal average but the heavy rains look to be behind us for this phase. Less sun to enjoy than we would like, and we’ll be left putting heads down and getting on with it. Still, that’s Spring moving towards a better outlook for June…hopefully….here’s a very brief tour for W Yorks region

11th Could be some scattered showers around, suns spells possible today
12th Mists, gloomy to western parts but westerlies are getting lively today so should help blow some clouds around leaving gaps for sunshine to come through.13th A rather bland spring day for us.
14th More unsettled conditions sun around with humidity developing.
15th Sun with cloud and winds vying with each other again.

18th-25th May
This phase begins with wet weather but refreshing the gloomy atmosphere of previous days. Still some unsettled atmospherics that can interfere with air traffic, but the last few days hold a hint of better days to come. The damp chill of former days might not be so oppressive this phase.
18th showery very early before or around sunrise, clearing by mid day if not mid morning. Northerlies argue with westerlies, expect some wind chills to remind us this is Spring not summer.
19th-20th similar to yesterday but winds get more active and keep things cool, less likelihood of showers breaking out.
21st The weather begins to warm up a little with expectation of sunshine for today.
22nd It will definitely rain today…really it will…watch for 1-2pm
23rd -25th Isolated cloudburst expected potential for news of tornado affecting Midlands as winds may get a bit wilder, rising temps however, breezy, sudden wind spurts but fairer weather slowly breaks out but this means mists can form and it is they that can interfere with flights.

25th May 2nd June
Don’t worry the good weather news comes soon for June, just watch it trying to breakthrough valorously during this phase!
There will be some mists around mainly eastern quarters, but also to valleys as descending cold clashes with arising heat trends, and some lashing westerlies may cause problems by 27th, troubling some to NW Scotland. The south looks to get the fairer weather but this will change by 31st.
Generally a good phase for gardeners to watch their crops thrive on the weather conditions.

25th Stratus clouds dominate the north with hail and sleet likely to sporadically hit pockets to the north, with highlands getting snow. Very cold on high ground with chills lowering temps as they fall leading to some mists forming to valleys, late evening as well. In between showery outbursts some sunshine could be present but these micros are difficult to track-probably valleys such as Ilkley, Addingham will get the mists while Grassington will see fairer weather.
26th A misty start with lots of cloud around clearing by mid day leading to cool but sunnier outlook
27th A fast moving system aided by some high speed lashing westerlies sunshine covered by clouds as they speed along.
28th A more settled outlook as winds subside with warmth from sun by mid day onwards HURRAH! Summer beckons….
29th Variable breezes, sun with cloud.
30th Some mists around early morning but clearing away later, however it does look as though some more rain makes its presence felt by evening so don’t take anything for granted when the sun shines.
31st Sun provides heat but forms clouds drying up any rain from previous day leaving cloud around for 1st which could stay gloomy, but generally the pattern from 31st- 2nd is one of a fairer
outlook to the north with temps lowering on previous days and some cloud around……..But oh look at 2nd June………book this for your day off and plan a mega outing……………….might even be a great evening for a barbie!

Disobedience classes I hate it when they do this2-9th June

This is the phase when you can get out the barbies, put on your best summer gear and plan for some great outdoors. The only blot on the horizon is some fast and furious sleet and hail and lightening storms raging around by 6th, like a petulant winter trying to stop summer from arriving. Expect both lows and highs with some areas reporting extremes for that day.

2nd Cool sunny day with warmth from sun pretty comforting by mid day onwards
3rd A lovely evening for sure, during the day some varying temps could see cold in shade and exposed areas but temps in sun in sheltered areas will be lovely
4th Fairer weather to north especially
5th some early mists as the earth warms up clearing the way for rising temps today, another lovely evening to enjoy outdoors
6th An all weather day with highs and sudden lows and some static around causing micro hail and sleet showery stuff, some lightening around too as micros circulate inland and to lowlands.
Take your brolly but don’t expect outbursts to last long, it’s a war of the weather but summer wins! Records could be broken today weather wise, some localities could end up with misty stuff but don’t worry it wont stay around long term..
7th onwards some lovely highs can now rule with fair summer weather and higher temps to enjoy though on 9th will be interfered with by whippy, cheeky, gusts and spurts of Nor westerlies.


9th-16th June

A very quick tour of the weather for this phase brings in seasonal record breaking highs by 11th-16th. The East looks set to be where the best weather of all is, the west could see a little more cloud, but overall this is summer at last with sunshine to enjoy.
Overall expect wholesome weather great for outdoors and smell the ozone. Scattered clouds, blue skies and perfect days to enjoy
9th-14th sees southerlies around while the 9th is a glorious day, the 12th could see some scattered precipitation on 12th, the 11th sees a real ratcheting up of temps with some isolated hail shower potential to some pockets mainly east late evening.
14th-16th potential for some breeziness turning NW but at least it keeps Mr Rain from spoiling things.

Aaaaah Summer days

Aaaaah Summer days

Summer Solstice phase 16th-24th June

Slightly more cloud for us this last phase of Spring, but overall we can expect some fair weather to continue along with seasonal higher range of temps. Some breezes could keep things seasonally cool by 19th as the sun gets ready to rise even higher in the sky which of course always brings in some disturbance as we enjoy all those squelchey wellies around
Glastonbury…they might get drier ground this year!
On 21st, solstice day, we can expect a little cooling with some cloud playing with sun spells around mid day, breezy but overall fair weather to enjoy.
Records for the East GB expected.

AUTUMN WEATHER 2013: W. YORKS: UK: LONG RANGE FORECAST

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Photo0236 Autumn 2013

Writing this in early July 2013, after the heady heatwave that broke by 22nd, it’s easy to see more heatwaves continuing well into Autumn….in our dreams. Certainly the season starts with some highs and the area between GB and

Europe is where the best temps reign supreme for a while, so eastern GB looks to be enjoying some nice highs at this stage. To the west of GB some highs also linger but with mists and hazes and some cloud that stops Sun
performing as well as we would like. This looks like turning very autumnal by 5th October when I expect high winds and some stormy outcome.

In fact I expect signs of autumn to show early in leaves and grass due to the drought conditions that left herbiage unquenched and needing sprinklers to keep them moist. In such conditions we get early drop and dying out of
summer growth, the signs usually associated with Autumn in fact.

October charts brought a bit of a challenge. First of all for three weeks we get the same indicators for similar weather patterns for three weeks of the month from 5th-18th and even by 26th there is only a slight variation on the theme with a more intense outlook being generated.

Winter makes its presence around the corner quite clear by 10th November phase when temps try to remain mild but begin to give way to an icy cold front and freezing mists and fogs by 12-13th and this could create some transport
problems. it was chilly just looking at these temps let alone living with them!

This forecast takes us up to the end of November and will be updated in October to take us up to Christmas.

geese takeover September 2013

FM 19th-27th September
Could be some outpourings to the west prior to this phase, with any residue meandering eastwards from the outset on 27th. If you can remember back in 31st May and first week in June, the Mets kept telling us about the Azores
high and sure enough we got mosquito outbreaks in its wake!

We will still be enjoying a continuation of some good weather for this phase, another potential Azores streak that bathes us in some nice seasonally high temps. NW Scotland could see some variable temps with occasional
dullness, mists haze and cloudiness depending on altitude and this could slowly move further down the west. But overall a good weather trend to enjoy.

27th October-5th October

This is where Autumn discernibly moves in.

The fair weather continues for a few more days, but temps get cooler as the phase progresses growing autumnally cold by 30th when I expect precipitation to hit NW regions, i.e lakes area. Unsettled conditions turns the tide on the good weather from 29th with winds growing restless and ready to blow off the dead leaves. Winds grow ever more erratic by 1st keeping things cool and a little chilly, with sporadic rainy outbursts, mizzle and drizzles heralding the end of summer and dawn of Autumn. Temps much cooler by 3rd onwards when winds rev up in speed and temps grow even more variable and cold, could mean gales for some regions, but some sunshine afterwards for last 2 days I would think.

5th-11th October
The cold weather looks likely to continue with gentle southerlies around at the outset trying to ward off any bitterness, but with northerlies above we can expect mostly clouds forming and localised showery outbursts from 5th, moving eastwards.

By the 7th the weather gets much more unsettled with mists haze and cloud around watery places, with warmth and cold air vying with each for space. I expect clouds if not mists and haze to predominate by late afternoon or
evening, particularly to the eastern areas of our region.
8th Brings a cloudy morning, some mists may linger, more showery outburst likely. Easterlies predominate increasing cloudiness as the day wears on, erratic gustiness makes things unpleasant if not a little stormy with NW one of
the areas of GB most vulnerable to these outburst and squalls. Could be hail or sleet and it is cold so I’m not ruling out snow arriving or heralded by these weather conditions, and it could be highland areas that gets news of the impending arrival.
9th slightly milder conditions, snow still likely as previously mentioned and showery outbursts localised but very heavy at times, but some sunshine spells around to brighten up the outlook.
10th-11th Southerlies blow with a slight rise in mists and haze lingering , high humidity and isolated cloudbursts with heavy downpours for many regions, again looks most likely to North east and west at this stage.
1

1th-18th October

Clearer but cooler conditions rule off east of GB with these slowly moving in later this phase. Milder temps look more likely to far west of UK and this could clash with fogs and mists forming when the two meet.
Residual flood conditions could still be taking up traffic news at the outset and the NW region looks like one of most likely candidates.
A more biting chill factor arrives after 16th when temperatures will get colder as days progress, reminding us winter is on the way.

I expect sporadic isolated cold showery outburst 12-13th, hail or sleet for high places, some cloud to contend with but winds blowing them about creating some windows for sun to shine through now and again. Winds can be gusty
on some days. 13th sees snappy westerlies gusting at times and easterlies bringing in a cloudy outlook with localised showery outbursts, most likely before lunch, 15th and 17th stronger gusty outlook.

14th colder with some sun spells and less likelihood of showery outbreaks
15th Much more unsettled, winds get gustier and lustier and sharp
16th temps move cooler than previous days with frosts likely but a crisp atmosphere more moderate winds and clear visibility with lovely skies. High places could see snow and will be much colder than in lower areas.
17th Rain hail or even sleet, could be heavy at times beginning in the morning for us. Winds gusty, cold coming in from east, a touch of frost early in the morning and at night also heralded for the end of this phase.
18th seems to herald a likelihood of scattered showery outbreaks but read on………………..

18th-26th October

A continuation of similar weather to the last phase but with echoes of a chance of breaking the 1985 March Cambridgeshire 29.4C high on 1st October, but this time it looks at if Suffolk beats the temps with Felixstowe region the most likely winner. Certainly highs rules there from the 18th. This temp was broken 1st October 2011 when 29.9C was hit at Gravesend Kent, and highs will reach by18th a well.

The theme for weather in October 1985 for a similar chart to our current one was showery outbursts with thunder around the UK for 6 days between 2-9th October, and this pattern will repeat as some mugginess and warmth moves
in and isolated torrential downpours arrive as the phase unfolds. Some outbreaks can be short sharp hail showers as at Stainburn Cumbria when 20mm stones hit unsuspecting passers by on 4th of that month. The west of GB as
well as Scotland got the worst of the rain by 6th with snow falling to Cairngorms and Highlands 8th-9th—I expect a similar pattern to emerge as days progress. 1985 brought an Azores High into play and we miss the full heat of this
but a warm front is forming far wet and north of the Azores and we can expect some semi tropical lows to come over, but this is likely to form mists, haze clouds and fogs as it clashes with some of the colder air from 16th.

Isolated and scattered thunderstorms expect, to our region.

Sunset to sunrise should see less to no rainy outbursts for the most part and temps are very mild for the time of year. Evenings look likely to be a bit muggy and foggy, when usually a Full Moon sees clear night skies, but this
could change after midnight for a short while till after sunrise when precipitation favours falling at this stage of the moon.

Winds could get very lively to some regions with westerlies gusty and cutting at times, and northerlies joining in by 23rd but these usually bring a turn in the weather outlook and can clear up and bad conditions.

18th As previously forecast but the scattered showery stuff looks to be moving eastwards and seems further south. This is the day when Suffolk and SE regions get the highs. news of thunderstorms for GB could also be breaking.
Sun spells likely for us.
19th I expect a dry day with northerlies seeing off any total cloud cover forming, but it can be a little muggy with these temps. Fogs and mists likely near water over next few days.
20th Atmospheric disturbances expected from today. Localised sporadic downpours erratic, and intermittent during the day, heavy to some regions, ours too. A seismic time with EQ news for SE Russia or NE China…132E lat
55-60N long but 21st has more signals for exactitude? Semi tropical lows arrive with high humidity and cloudburst slowly circulating, thick hazes and fogs can also form with travel over the Atlantic under stress in these conditions. Gusty on occasions but mostly nebulous and variable breezes and winds.
21st Could be a drier outlook but high humidity and some cloud mists and fogs to valleys.
22nd Quick isolated and localised hail outbursts, but temps seasonally mild generally, very unsettled weather outlook.
23rd We can expect extremes of temps for the season to be causing raised eyebrows but I expect them to be on the warm side rather than colder than expected (famous last words!) Weather now gets pulled eastwards for a few
days and it does seem a little squally with variable winds, gusting at times and strong to NW and Scotland causing some travel problems on roads and highways. More mists fogs and haze around and by 24th onwards isolated
rainy weather travels eastwards with muggy conditions .
25th has some promise for sun spells and more semi tropical type temps but accompanies by mists and haze, so it looks like a cloudy night is heralded keeping the temps seasonably mild. Haze expect, mists and fogs to valleys
with variable winds continuing.

NT walk AmblesideOct 26th-3rd November

Perhaps levels of rain might be lower than we usually expect, and temps milder than expected for this time of year, and East Anglia seems to be getting a lot of the better ranges of sunshine with perhaps drier conditions and warmer
temps than the rest of us, I’m not ruling out drought conditions creating some problems for the region either.

For this phase I expect thunderstorms to arrive but little to no floods, although by the end of the phase heavier rain is likely, but the NW looks likely to get some pretty sharp or extreme outcomes.

Tornado Alley in the US looks busy at this time also.

26th Variable winds from the outset, some sunshine around but clouds developing, temps on the mild side

27th-29th Some quick sleet and sporadic showers expected, localised and intermittent but temps still mild generally and high humidity with occasional cloudbursts–quite sharp and heavy by 29th where NW sees the heavier precipitation.

From 29th weather gets easterly cloudier and skies duller and storms can be pushed northwards+ NE with outlook clearer for the southern regions. This system looks fast moving and consists of rain turning to sleet, snow with hail outbursts with winds breezy, very gusty and temps getting lower with rainfall cooling them off, some wild and windy weather is also expected.

1st Nov looks less unsettled with some chance of sunshine and clearer skies for days ahead, but breezy conditions are very active.

The last two days will have some sunshine during the day, but look more likely to see some rain travelling across by evening for us and for southern regions as well and strong westerlies remain gusty if not blizzard like, but some sunshine could also break out, but I expect snow to be in the news at the outset of our next phase Dublin and some parts of GB look to be white by 3rd, could be frost or snow…read on……

3d Nov-10th

A cold front arrives during this phase but turning milder by the end. 4th and 8th look to be the main culprits for wet weather, but other days can bring in some cold showery outbreaks. Winds should be less active for us.

3rd Looks like a little warming for southern regions anyway, but there is also cloud around and cold pockets, with rain sleet and snow showery outbreaks.
4th A low system brings a cold front, not ruling out snow either, skies look dull with cold mists and fogs likely to coast and valleys, showers can be intermittent and drizzly the skies are much better before sunrise so get up early to see them!
5th Some sun attempts by morning, accompanied by quick hail and sleet showers, sporadic and localised, unsettled conditions with occ sun spells.
6th The next few days brings in some haze, variable winds, some dull cloudy weather from 6th, but some sun spells, 7th will be cloudier later with poor visibility trends, could be more drizzles overnight to next day 8th is calm but humid and mists from overnight, easterlies shows some muggy conditions around but a bright promise around 6-9 am
9th can see some sun around mid day a risk of short sharp showers around sunset and more easterlies keeping things a bit dull
10th Generally fair but a risk of showers again by evening.

10th-17th November

This is when temps come to be extremely wintery with icy cold conditions and freezing over likely. Generally fair conditions at the first few days between mists and showery outbursts

10th Some windy weather from the outset with easterlies gusting around mid day, but this gives way to calmer conditions later at night. Sporadic hail and sleet showers expected from around midnight to early 1 am on 10th onwards. freezing fogs likely late at night towards 11th so take care on the roads.
11th Rain and showery conditions moving to east of us, some southerlies around but mild, and more freezing fogs by evening.
12th Some cloud with sunny spells during the day
13th Cool with sun spells from sunrise onwards should be a nice by the afternoon but some clouds and mists to valleys expected by evening.
14th Hail and sleet can burst out but not be long lived otherwise some fair trned operating
15th Today brings a very noticeable cold low into play when we could see water begin to freeze over. Icy cold showers could break out late evening and there is some potential for sleet if not snow storms with higher elevations affected, but this cold front is going to be very chilling.

16th-17th Cloudy some gentle breezy conditions about, cloudier to northern parts, fairer to the south but chilly, some warmth from sun during mid day on 17th.

17th-25th November

This phase shows extremes of temp lowering to very icy with the big freeze coming over. By 20th we could see some cold air descending to meet iciness producing some wind emergencies down in the Midlands, and the west
could also see some action from westerlies veering north to try and clear everything up a bit.

East Anglia, Norfolk regions look very cold too, so does NW of Scotland where temps are very low the SW England and NE Scotland also look in line to get snowfall by 17/18th……….

17th-18th Looks windy to the east of us, temps nippy, frost on the ground likely with potential for sleet and winter showers giving a show of white cover. Some sun could be around to keep things cheerful, with evening skies being clearer but creating cold conditions due to no or little cloud cover.

19th-20th Some rising temps during the day with sunshine trying to gain control, but hail and sleet flurries look set to come over from the east for us, heavier to the eastern parts, heavier for us on 20th and to southern shores.
Today -20th-brings in the winds I mentioned above , these can be gusty, the Midlands and Scotland look worse hit by these, nippy, keeping things very cutting, temps very icy out of the daytime sunshine. I’m not ruling out sleet hail and snow blizzards with this wind, creating a bit of a news headline.
21st Icy showers arrive today possibly by lunchtime, some sun spells with cloud and some south-easterly air flows keeping things muggy during the day.
22nd is very unsettled with south westerlies around, could be a rough ride weather wise if not an all weather day when we get rain, hail sleets snow and sun till the weather decides what it is going to do. These outbursts will be very localised and intermittent through the day.
23rd Cloudy but fairer potential for snowfall also or sleet and hail creating fogs and mists by late afternoon due to high humidity and by 24th little to no or nebulous winds growing cloudier by evening with an intensely cold low front moving in heralding dull leaden skies and moving eastwards today and on 25th when easterlies make things gloomier Bbbbrrrrrrr……..

This post is also repeated on http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com
Reports on accuracy of weekly outcomes will be resumed at a later stage. Read previous postings on weekly feedback of previous seasons to get a measure of accuracy which is often 80-90% and for many weeks in a season it can be 100% using the same methods our ancient forecasters used to forecast weather using ancient satellite technology.

UK SUMMER WEATHER 2013 West Yorks and Yonder Long Range Forecast

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astrometeorology

Long Range Weather Forecasting that Doesn’t Cost the Earth

 

 

In February I published my Spring Forecast on my blogs at www.amazingweather.wordpress.com  so please visit there to keep up with the Spring long range forecast, also on www.ukweatherbrief.wordpress.com   where you can read feedback on previous season accuracy to verify results.

I realise some parts of W Yorks will often have rainfall or more sunshine than other parts, and due to such micros operating it is difficult to locate and forecast these within only one or two miles of each other, hence discrepancies often operating between my forecasting and localised weather micros throughout the region. Happily this is a rare perhaps once a month event, leaving an overall  reasonable reliability for our regional long range outcomes.
Introduction Summer 2013 UK W Yorks and Yonder

First of all I do have to write an explanation of why it is difficult delivering 100 per cent accurate forecasts for one region such as W Yorks. For 18th March, for example,  I had forecast it to be a fine start with hail before sunrise, but some mists and fogs to some localities. My locality had fogs, mists and continuous thin snow showers from very early am, clearly fulfilling the warning of fogs to some localities. I haven’t had time to see if anywhere in W Yorks got the fine start with hail, to test the fullness of the forecast. However, another forecast for 8th March was for a localised outbreak of hail and sleet, but sunshine and clear skies, cold temps and strong gusty winds. Instead we got thick cloud, gloomy, drizzly stuff with fogs later in the evening, so not a good forecast for my locality at all. HOWEVER, just a mile away, still in W Yorks going over to Otley the mists cleared to high visibility and finer weather conditions on this day, which is the locality for where my forecast was accurate. Otley and Addingham and other W Yorks towns, often deliver little micros that are difficult to pin down, and there is little I can do to prevent their weather often showing up stronger than that of other W Yorks regions on  around 10 per cent of occasions. This is one reason why I don’t promise 100 per cent accuracy for my outcomes.

Summer brings six planets to the northern hemisphere so summer should have some seasonally warm temps, but 2011 had some 6 planets in the north and that brought some colder conditions comparing it to 1993 which was very very cold with only three planets north. In August Venus moves south taking spring to their hemisphere early and perhaps auguring an earlier Autumn for us.

Junes seems to begin a cycle of flooding till 22nd July when it looks at this stage as if a heatwave arrives, but don’t raise your hopes too high! Nice temperatures look set to break out for the first part of July 8th-14th approximately depending on where in the UK you live.

So we seem to begin the summer with dangers of floods for the first half followed by either a heatwave or some hot summer temperatures bringing in cracking thunderstorms. I can guarantee the thunderstorms breaking out, but not for exact locations as they will be moving around quite rapidly on occasions.……..make sure your tent is waterproofed and earthed!  Mid July to end of August shows t/storms and lightening proliferating as temps get high and humid with a lot of static around.

22nd to 29th July looks a little tempestuous after some warm summer temps create a risk of static discharge and floods are likely to be in the news. This phase is reminiscent of April 2000 when rainfall was above average but Ireland got an unbeatable low of -8.2 degrees C. I don’t think we’ll be beating that temp, as this phase does look warmer than that! The eastern coast will be hit by scattered electrical outbursts from the start. Cumbria but mostly Eng/Welsh border does look vulnerable at this phase by 28-29th, so do some parts of Scotland, so I will be watching the news for outcomes. Also, we can expect news of some serious religious, financial and commercial discord at this time, with clergy and bankers as well as corporates under attack. News of more terrorist activity is also likelihood and I will be looking out for news of the sea–perhaps more piracy out there for this time of the year.
I took the following info about similar patterns for 3-4th July 2002 from the MET site to show you how this phase could pan out, as similar conditions prevail for this phase.
‘’Mean temperatures generally close to average across the whole of the UK. A very wet month across most parts, with some areas receiving three times their normal rainfall.

At Leuchars it was the wettest July since records began in 1922, with 145.8 mm. Temperatures touched 33 °C at Northolt on the 29th, with 83 mm at Marham, Norfolk on the 30th.

England and Wales diary of highlights

Unsettled and chilly first half followed by a warm dry spell, then more changeable. Hot and thundery later with some downpours and local flooding. Fresher closing days.

1st to 12th Unsettled and cool with frequent outbreaks of rain as low-pressure systems and their associated fronts traversed the region. Most days were decidedly wet especially in central and southern areas of England. The rain was often heavy and accompanied by thunder, the latter being reported on the 2nd, 3rd and 5th. Thundery showers also affected a number of places on the 10th to 12th.’’

 
Summer 2013 daily long range forecasts

 
16th-23rd June

This phase spans the solstice and with Glastonbury running this year, we normally expect mud baths and lots of wellies around to add to the fun of the festival……..I would have to spend a few hours with the special chart for Glastonbury to see whether it is likely to happen this way this year….though I haven’t looked up the date, though usually it occurs at the solstice. (Just took a look 26th-30th June…errmmmm looks like they got a proper forecast to help eliminate the usual solsticial mud bath then:-)
Certainly the weather is unsettled from 20th-22nd, and there is a high risk of mists and mugginess ruling off the west coast of Ireland and GB, and I hope this doesn’t spell more sea disasters to west of Ireland, as this chart I am looking at has echoes of November 2011 when a huge wave tipped over a boat off the coast, leaving six men in the water. This event could precede this weather during squalls of last phase, but better safe than sorry, as some strong gusty weather continues from last phase into 16th and 17th and some UK wide localised scattered thunderstorms could break out during this phase 16th-23rd, difficult to track as they will travel around.

Mistiness can break out over watery places in valleys and days around the solstice are likely candidates.

On a more positive note, temperatures look more summery for this time of the year as the sun makes a move into our hemisphere, but around 20th-22nd this produces unsettled weather

16th Sees temps rising but some very brisk gusty winds could keep things seasonally cool. Variable cloudiness, particularly over to the west of us, with a risk of heavy rainfall by very late evening. Some West NW gales or strong gusty conditions around some parts as well.

17th Temps warmer today, warmer still to eastern parts, with some nebulous wind spurts, and it looks like a dry day

18th Another dry day expected, variable cloud around but temps cooler than previous days.

19th Cloudy start likely but clearing to bring in a sunnier afternoon, this looks like a nice day with some nice blue skies to enjoy….

20th Unsettled weather today with a risk of early morning showers around and more risk of showers by evening, breezy outlook.

21st A lot more cloud around today, early and by evening, with light haze and mists to distant view and high ground and near watery places, some drizzly outbursts localised not for all areas W Yorks and yonder. To be honest I’m not ruling out a quick sleet or snow attempt either…

22nd High humidity likely trend, with quick outbursts of hard hitting precip very early am and near sunrise, cloud with sunshine expected.

23rd It looks rainy to far west of us before sunrise, and this could travel over to some parts of our region, and could even be a continuation of showery stuff from the night before, this looks like wafting in a cooler outlook, some sunshine could break out, but read on>>>>>>>>>>

23rd June -30th

High temperatures look likely to break out to the West of Ireland and Scotland’s West coast might benefit too for a change, helping them eliminate the gloomy conditions formerly reigning over there.

This could turn out to b a completely dry phase that sees off any bad weather, but I do see some precipitation arriving, but I can’t see heavy downpours arriving to bring floods, though it does look as if some parts of the UK could still be dealing with them at the outset due to rains of previous weeks.
Usually we can expect barbecue evenings during the Full Moon stage due to the Moon being high in the sky and warding off any rain attempts sunset to sunrise. I do, for the second half of this, see some seasonal highs arriving around second part of this phase, but some showery spells to keep you from getting too excited!

23rd as above

24th Risk of showers before sunset, but dry afterwards with some clouds, mists or haze around evening

Winds strong gusty and whipping at times NW in direction and varying speed over next few days.

25th Should be some rise in temps today but some static developing with a risk of lightening showers swarming around giving localised quick bursts. The outlook is unsettled with varying cloud cover but some sunshine expected.

26th Temps seasonally warm, some humidity, but should be a fair weather day. Risk of haziness by evening.

27th A bit unsettled but some higher temperatures built up with a risk of quick static localised showery outburst mid morning or just clouds, but temps rise again indicating a strong sunny arrival.

28th Same conditions as yesterday

29th A rainy outlook risk before sunrise continuing a risk to mid day, but after that some finer weather with refreshing air and good atmosphere to get some gardening done.

30th Quick sharp showers, similar to yesterday, around mid day but mostly clear and sunny.

 
30th June-8th July

At first this chart looked like a clearer, warmer phase, but under scrutiny it became more likely that some prolonged rain could arrive to spoil the nicer patterns, so I’m not ruling out higher precip to NE regions and perhaps others, but not as heavy to our region; this outpouring could put drains under stress and bring in some localised flooding around 1st and 2nd…but hopefully I get this completely wrong…

We will get some wet spells W Yorks and Yonder, but also some lovely outbreaks of nice warm summery weather, if not highs as well, for the second half of the phase.
30th As above with some gusty south westerlies around.

1st  Some sporadic sharp showery outbreaks here, but refreshing atmosphere even though dampness prevails, some leaden skies threatening to spoil things a little, with risk of a stormy outlook to NE of us with a risk of prolonged rain or showers keeping the outlook wet here as well. It could feel a little damp and chilly today as well. Showery outlook risks continuing into 2nd.

2nd Calmer outlook with some mists due to showers of yesterday, sultry conditions with potential for showers over higher areas such as the moors or just being surrounded by clouds (always a nice but spooky feeling up on the moors) cool but fresh atmospherics.

3rd Looks less wet, but mid day could see a risk of quick refreshing showery weather, some sun spells to brighten up the outlook.

4th Some cold pockets vying with warmer temps trying to break out, winds are erratic and keep things cool on high and in exposed regions, but there is also a warmer outlook growing stronger today with likelihood of sun spells.

5th NICE summery temps, blue skies and sunshine around, but a risk of quick showery outbursts for us, not sure abut the rest of the UK today though…

6th-8th Looks like the dry weather is more reliable with some nice temperatures and a brilliant atmosphere to enjoy good outdoor activity. 8th brings potential for some rainy stuff….but read on….

 
8th -16th July

I took some time out to look at important features for this chart and found 2 interesting record breaking incidents that wont occur during this phase…hopefully….

We have a similar chart to NM 22 June 1906 when record breaking high temperatures broke out, and though I do expect some nice seasonal highs for this phase, I don’t expect them to reach the same levels as then…..sadly, though we will get some nice warm temps hovering around–HURRAH.

I also took another look at the storm surge to Bristol and the Sun close to Mercury is supposed to bring strong winds, as in 1607, (and many times since then I might add) but I don’t see a similar storm surge, but I’m not ruling out very strong winds out to sea from 7th, and to our region on 9th. Saturn hovers around the west coast of GB from the start so it does look less sunny with lower temps there and winds look set to be strong for NW regions for the first few days, but then Silverdale in the NW can be a real wind tunnel any time of year………………………….

Photographers can expect some good visibility for the first few days as well, so get out your camera.

Temperature wise I expect seasonal highs to break out for the first part of this phase, with cooler temps after 13th
8th Sunshine around during the day with risk of quick scattered showers by evening. Temps should be warm today, the atmosphere should be clear, but cold pockets to exposed regions, and some strong gusty brisk westerlies could ward off the real highs. I do expect some sunshine today…..

9th Looks glorious for us with even higher temps ruling the day but some I’m afraid of a risk of very strong gusts and windy weather around, but this keeps things dry and hurries along any rain clouds that might try to spoil the UV count! Could be news of static outburst to west of us with mists or haze due to warming.

10th Cloudy if no0t gloomy start. More sunshine and some cloud likely but also blue skies around, some static could trigger localised sprays.

11th Temps still seasonally warm and rising, particularly south of us with perhaps lower pressure to the north, with risk of quick localised scattered cloudbursts

12th Things begin to unsettle a little today, temps still fair to moderately high, but could be cooler than previous days , Cloudy if not hazy early in the day and late at night, but fairer outlook during the day, some nebulous breezy conditions also.

13th Seismic conditions to East Asia, Japan regions today, I expect a sunny and warm outlook to prevail, but unsettled atmosphere with stronger N Westerlies

14th Risk of early showery stuff by mid day, but these look heavier to the west, sunny with isolated colder pockets for us in shady places, but less so by mid day.

15th Similar to yesterday with risk of quick sharp showery stuff if not hail by eve and potential for mist or haziness late evening. Breezy if not windy

16th A fair outlook, but very unsettled and lots of static forming, but winds to N West , could even be gales or stormy to highlands and news of thundery outbursts– late evening here>>>>>>>>>>>>>>read on for the next chapter in this weather story………………..

 
16th-22nd July

There are still some lovely almost tropical weather pockets around and Derry in Ireland looks likely to be where some of the good weather is, but so do John o Groats and Glucestershire regions, but this could turn around by 21/22nd when some cracking t/storms break out and some flash flooding is a risk.

I expect high levels of precipitation to arrive, and compete with records for July 2002 when three times the amount of average rainfall broke out and caused floods. I also expect a rash of higher than usual outbreaks of thunder and lightening storms

I’m not too happy with my forecast for this phase due to so many contradictory factors between highs and static outbursts travelling around and they are difficult to follow  demanding a lot of time and more charts which I don’t have time to do, so no promises…………….but for us I do expect heavy rain to hit by 21st but we also get some nice days to enjoy with some good temps, though not as high as previously, but still seasonally pleasant…The 18th-20th look like being more reliable for good weather outcomes

16th-17th Still appears lower temps could be NE, E Anglia looks well served with good weather, some warm weather around our parts creates risk of scattered migrating electrical outbursts overnight into 17th, heavy downpours accompany these, hopefully most of us will sleep through this, but some flash floods may result. Northern areas most prone to these outbreaks; including Scotland. 17th looks fine and sunny with warm temps around to keep us cheered up

18th -22nd Some cooling begins but 19th looks nice fair and sunny whilst 20th seems static with hazes forming, some muggy conditions around today and tomorrow. Some static lightening and thunder outbursts– highly probable over these days. 21st brings in high risk of downpours before or around mid day, these are very heavy as temps begin to rise again and some strong very gusty variable speed N Westerlies. Mid day 21st looks like the sun could shine through with a fine weather outlook for the afternoon, but the evening runs a risk of more heavy rain which could continue into 22nd cooling the atmosphere before sunrise, due to a very unsettled weather system breaking out warning of possible electrical outbursts accompanying rising temps, but the skies could clear easily leaving room for cloud but some sunshine and if you are resuming outdoor activity….take your brolly for these outbursts. Flash floods risk but some very warm trends also and should be a nice evening..read on

 
22nd July-29th July

In my dreams this is summer breaking out with at least barbecue evenings even if there is some cloud around during the day……..BUT, as I said this only happens in my dreams……

This weather phase left me exhausted, as if a tempest passed over! A lot of exciting weather to come.

This is the time of year when the sun is furtherest away from our planet and we often see a drop in temps and bad weather as if even the clouds above are grieving over the fact that school is out!

We do have a perigee on 21st, with Full Moon on 22nd so some of the warmer temps should be ruling both hemispheres. The East of England looks to be getting some fine summer sun with warm trends of summer temps (does it ever rain in Norfolk?) whilst the west is experiencing some low pressure with cooler temps, and this will change completely around by the end of this phase.

There is a risk of flash flooding due to risk of above average but torrential and quickly dispelled cloudbursts, the western regions from Keswick in a line down to Gloucestershire are most vulnerable towards the end of this phase, but Eastern coast of England down to Cambridge and beyond to Kent at the outset get hit by some spectacular lightening electrical storms.

Best headlines seem likely to come in from the West of us….
21-22 as already mentioned this appears to be when cloudburst break in between higher range of temperatures, the east from Whitby, Grimsby to Cambridgeshire and beyond looks the best region for these scattered outbursts, and down to Devon areas there does look to be some conflicting weather systems with electrical outbursts accompanying some lovely warm temps. Expect an unsettled outlook with localise warmth then sudden pockets of cooling after showers for these two days, with lightening showers, heavy at times but very heavy for some as soon as they begin and leaving clearer skies in their wake as they travel onwards. We wont be as badly affected in our region and we can expect some cloudburst but also some sunshine between the clouds, 22nd looks cooler for us, some sun spells expected and a finer evening so get ready for a good evening walk…or drinking al fresco

23rd looks better though some mistiness and hazes could prevail but some sunshine in between with clearer night skies. A risk of a quick spurt of showery stuff before sunrise warmer muggy trends today.

24th Similar to yesterday with shower risk more likely around mid afternoon but it could turn out to be just some cloud coming over. Temps moderate, getting warmth if you see the sun and some southerly flows of weather coming over, gusty breezes at times.

25th Risk of short but heavy showers after start of day and before sunrise but it could just be mists or haze I’m seeing. Milder to cool conditions for the daytime, should be sunshine but cloud around as well. Seems like some pathways could be getting muddy….

26th News of weather system hitting the west today/tomorrow– Cumbria down Welsh borders and up to West of Scotland likely to be facing up to the worst of the weather being seen on satellites, with a risk of some flash floods. Temps very muggy and tropical rains could be localised for some areas inland with easterlies around keeping things a bit broody, and news of mudslides a risk so don’t walk near muddy cliffs or take care on high ground where footpaths need careful scrutiny.

I expect fogs, mists and haze overnight, more predominant to west, after some fairer evening weather for us.

27th Risk of showers for us 5-8am temps more humid than cold,, sun with cloud expected by afternoon, clearer evening sky,some broody easterlies along with southerly flows still knocking around posing a risk of quick showery outbursts which could continue into the next day…

28th A dull start before sunrise. Humidity levels high some mist and haze to west and around watery places and coastal regions, strong winds for some quarters, fine and sunny and warm for the afternoon with sun spells for us, but a quick cloud burst could stop play around 3-6pm but it will leave things feeling fresher afterwards.

29th Sorry but this looks like even more rain increasing risk of flash flooding from west to east and our region. Very windy outlook as well, I can’t rule out some strong winds accompanying weather trends 28th-29th……..wet wet wet…….is the theme but it will clear up the muggy trends and leave the atmosphere refreshed and by late afternoon on 29th it does look like the rains are further east of us leaving us to a drier outlook for the afternoon and eve. Cool temps 29th and we could see some blue skies around with sunshine.

 
29th July- 8th August

Sorry to say my charts look like floods are likely to be continuing from last phase, with more heavy rain to add to the chaos for this phase. Hopefully I’m wrong, but astrologers have a rule, see a thing three times and positively predict,  and there are three signifiers for heavy rain and floods evident, but it could be they are already over by 30th…let’s see…..

29th looks showery adding to high levels already falling, heavier to the north travelling east and causing flash floods…Suffolk looks to be getting some rain today as well Wind activity is easterly so a bit broody weather to be expected.

30th A better outlook, cooler due to rain in previous days, but exhilarating atmosphere with coolness pervading it. Sun with cloud expected.

31st More scattered outbreaks, moderate temps, for the afternoon cloud and quick but heavy showers. Mists haze or cloud by evening some sun might break through.

1st Aug. Risk of showers by breakfast, very unsettled outlook, some muggy conditions and risk of static outbursts today and these may be around very early, milder by middle of day, but it does look like late evening has some lovely clear skies for stargazers such as myself. Some strong gusty N Westerlies around today to keep things drying out

2nd. Moderate temps getting warmer, risk of heavy showers by late evening and into following morning, potentially a fair weather outlook during the afternoon.

3rd Looks like better summer conditions today with any outbursts staying off till evening if they do arrive to your locality.

4th Wind speed increased to eastern parts, but some N Westerlies bring down cooler temps today cool but dry weather, electrical outburst to high regions and northern areas. The afternoon looks cool but with sun spells, cloudier later.

5th Slightly milder today, breezy though could turn out to be a dry fair day with some warmth from sun in the afternoon.

6th 6-8th look like similar to 5th. Fairer days, breezy southerlies around turning NW by 8th, some cooling on 7th but very unsettled outlook for 8th

6th-14th August

Could this be a nice phase???

Although I studied the chart for hours and researched some unusual features in it, I found the outcome so difficult to define and I do not have a lot of confidence in it at all.

When we have a New Moon we normally get the drier weather during the day and any precipitation at evening and overnight. I don’t see excess precipitation for this phase, but the temperatures are not reliable either, nor are reliable unbroken sunny days.

At first the chart looked sunny glorious and warm, and for sure the 10th looks the most likely for this, but there are some dangers of showery and misty weather spoiling continuously clear days or prolonged sunny conditions.

Apologies if this doesn’t work out the way I forecast at this stage long range on  February 20th 2013!

6th-8th look like fine days with some lovely weather to enjoy on 6th as mentioned in previous phase.

8th looks a little more unsettled with more warming around and southerlies

9th seems to have some risk of showery weather but more for the southern regions. Some good visibility around pm and evening with brisk westerlies combining with easterly flows, gusty at times continuing into tomorrow.

10th seems to be very warm and humid and a risk of hazes or mists near watery places and in valleys overnight tonight, temps mild but could be very warm if not very high, generally a fair outlook.

11th Mists and risk of muggy start today but developing into some fair conditions which sees some varying trends on cloud and temps, easterlies and some dull gloomy skies by late afternoon and evening.

12th Some mists or cloud still lingering and today sees high risk of showery weather, but skies clearer by the afternoon.

13th Another showery outlook for today around sunrise, mugginess around from early morning which looks to be quite warm, the afternoon looks better.

14th brings in some gusty westerlies combined with easterlies turning NW by 15th when they promise to get very strong, Sun with cloud expected… read on………….

14th August -21st

Mostly dry with some static outbursts of hail and sharp showers, some mists and some wind disturbances with sporadic static outbursts for 15-16th, these can be heavy to some localities, hail to others and accompanied with thunder and lightening for others. Weather will better to south England and cloudier to the north.

The worst of the weather hits the southern hemisphere for these days….

14th I’m expecting warmth in the sun, temps moderate but rising gently, fresh atmosphere, with fleecy clouds, but some unsettled winds begin to come in

15th Erratic and gusty if not high speed to north west, this can bring a sudden drop to bring in colder temps to high ground and exposed areas. Clearer skies by late evening, fresh atmosphere white fluffy clouds in blue sky, but a risk of localised and sporadic hail or sharp shower weather due to clash with warm and cold air as warned in the introduction.

16th Cooler outlook some scattered electrical showers, risk of high speed winds and or gales for some regions, acute and sharp cutting gusty westerlies along with scattered static outbursts.

17th similar to yesterday but winds less volatile, still some unsettled conditions but a cool sunny outlook could prevail with some gusty weather.

18th Similar to yesterday with some warmth from sun at mid day but a risk of a shower to freshen things up

19th and 20th localised showery outlook rising temps by 20th calm with potential for mists to form particularly likely early on 20th, due to high humidity, but by late evening on 20th some fair weather outlook some cloud around.

21st More winds likely, high speed to high locations, cool outlook though some warmth during the day, static sporadic outbursts can arrive to keep temps on the lower side, better outlook by evening read on

 
21st 28th August

Cooler temperatures begin to arrive, with some mizzles drizzles for us, as well as some mists and fogs. The whole of the UK sees rain moving around 21st-22nd and some strong winds are expected keeping temps low even if the sun does try to shine. East Anglia looks to get some of the highs that remain on a diagonal flow up to NW Scotland from the outset, and the NW region Cumbria could also see some of these but a risk of fogs and mists arises from this system following the trail of any warmth.

21st-22nd Rapid static outbursts of sleet and sharp showers, high velocity winds with rain heavier to southern areas, radio disturbances from previous days continue for a few more days accompanying static outbursts. Northerlies operate trying to ward off heavier downfalls and the evening on 21st looks like some sunshine gives us a pleasanter evening. Overall the outlook is cool with winds much stronger and erratic by 22nd onwards accompanying rainfall circulating the UK.

23rd Intermittent short sharp showers, hail to some localities short sharp and swift, cutting but some blue skies and sun spells likely but very cold temps for us.

24th Very cold pockets , similar to yesterday more cloud around by late evening, if not mists and fogs.

25th Humidity high, clouds and risk of fog, damp conditions with mizzles and drizzly outbursts, winds very strong gusty westerlies, sudden localised squalls break out along canal banks and river ways in valleys, localised but very strong and can last up to one or two hours before settling down. Patchy fog and mists likely especially by late evening when they can be thicker creating transport probs due to low visibility.

26th Cloudy dull with easterlies early in the morning looking broody, a cold outlook, but some fairer outlook by mid day, sun with cloud around, risk of a sudden outbursts of localised sleet and hailstorms late afternoon, cold evening and could be some frost to wake up to next day

27th The outlook is clearer for today fairer weather to the north, some cloud to start with but clearing and a fresher atmosphere but some unsettled if not stormy conditions to follow……….

 
28th August -5th September

I get to this stage realising I try so hard to find some glorious uninterrupted sunny spells that it would be nice to just ignore the bad bits and pretend the highs that appear in some of the charts this phase, will not be interrupted by anything windy or wet…….in your dreams..
East Anglia to Kent look set to get some lovely highs, but then they always do……the best of the temps for the ending of summer occur mid ocean half way between Hull and Rotterdam, so book your ferry now……..
Back here in W Yorks and yonder, a different picture emerges, but we do get some warm weather if not constantly sunny days to come and the 5th does look rather pleasant……

28th –30th have high humidity with likelihood of fogs by night, with mists and hazes hanging around threatening to obscure the sunshine by day. Some breeziness turning easterly and broody on 29th. The 30thwith winds turn strong, erratic and very speedy at times, and gusty turning westerly then northerly by late at night on 30th, fetching some coolness down from the north. Cloudiness forming during the day on 3oth, and a risk of rain coming in with the winds, the northerlies clear skies overnight into early start 31st producing some white woolly clouds and clearer skies for early morning 31st, and late at night promises better conditions for the south of our region, but cloudier the further north you get,

31st During the day looks like seeing a risk of static outbursts, sporadic potential for localised thunderstorms for some regions, these cloudbursts look sporadic for us during the day and late at night.

1st-5th Rain travelling south to east regions but we could see some heavy outbursts by late evening on 1st for W Yorks regions.

2nd onwards look like better days some mists and hazes could linger but temps set to still be summery and warm but humid 4th onwards, and a fine evening looks to break out on 4th. It looks breezier for this half with things cooling a little at night with air frosts likely overnight. 3rd is static hazy and humid with some darker clouds forming mid day, better weather by evening with a crisp and fresher outlook. 5th looks lovely at this stage….and from yesterday we could be in for those fine evenings when people sit out and enjoy convivial refreshment al fresco…..but read on>>>>>

 
5th-12th September

This looks like a drier phase with some sunshine around to remind us of summer. There are echoes of September 2011 when we had a heatwave for the last throes of summer, but don’t expect that on this occasion, and remember that there were some very strong winds around as well as rain as a result of that unusually warm weather.

Overall this phase looks drier until we get to the 10th when some precipitation looks likely to come in from the western parts hitting them worse than our region. Some strong winds could create problems for some regions for this phase also.

5th-6th Looks fair for us with some fine seasonally high temps on 5th, but there can also be sudden drops in temperatures so don’t take any warmth from the sun for granted, and if you are fell walking the drops will hit the tops first before descending downwards to valleys where areas in shadow will feel chilly. Cloudiness could set in from late evening on 6th

7th looks cloudy from the turn of the day but then it looks better from perhaps sunrise with some fair weather beckoning you into outdoor activity for the morning of the day and beyond with some warmth from the sunshine, but with some gusty outbursts.

8th A misty or cloudy start, lower temps and risk of some dullness but some sun spells expected for the afternoon, more cloudy possibly misty again by late evening.

9th A breezy outlook with some trends for more turbulent weather for some regions with strong gusty winds. Sun with cloud for the early part of the day, some warmth from sun, but clouds forming late evening warn of rain risk ahead.

10th-12th Strong, breezy if not windy, a fair start to the day on 10th but things getting duller as day progresses with a risk of rain arriving later in the afternoon and evening with more precipitation likely on following days. Some mists near waterways can be expected.

 
12th-19th September

The weather gets very busy for this phase and my satellite technology shows highs reigning across from Cornwall to the N E coast at Whitby, and anyone on that line across England can expect the best of a mini heatwave for a couple of days.

12th-13th Temperatures may be a little bit lower to the east to start with where some NW keep things cool, but some blue skies are left behind in their wake leaving a warm glow in the sunshine. I expect a little cloud to form by evening, but we should see some sunshine breaking out all over.

14th Today sees more highs but unsettled with likelihood of some quick static outbursts of hail and sleet in response to higher temps on previous days. It is calm misty/cloudy and sultry to begin the day, gusty North Westerlies rev up and can become strong for some regions in exposed areas to the west and north, mid day should be fine for us with a risk of showery outbreaks to high places. I’ll be looking to see if we get Fohn winds at this time of the phase, these are nice warm breezes that feel like someone left the hair drier on…..the hail storms are more likely late afternoon and evening. I do expect sunshine for daytime.

15th-16th is when the fun starts, but there should still be sunshine around the middle of the day on 15th. We can expect some static outbursts with scattered hailstorms late afternoon becoming strong overnight, with severe outbursts scattered, sporadic and intermittent, more intense to NW and Scotland as a cold front comes in to fight with the sultry conditions of previous days. Some strong gusty winds of varying speed with a breeding ground for localised tornadic outbursts, these storms can affect comms systems and air travel. There should be some blue skies around as well during the daytime.

17th shows very strong gusty westerlies, a mild start but much cooler by late afternoon with an unsettled outlook due to fast moving clouds which may prevent sun from getting through

18th-19th Stormy weather can be moving northwards, broody easterlies with risk of fogs and mists, and to be honest it does look like some heavy rain begins to fall late afternoon and evening on 18th, if it doesn’t then I’m just looking at some very dull leaden skies with risk of drizzle and mizzly stuff and cooler northerlies breaking out on 19th trying to clear things up. The NW looks to be worst hit by the precipitation on these days.

 summer 2013

Spring UK Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder 2013

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Spring 2013

Spring 2013

Spring UK Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder

Cold and wet with snow thrown in just about sums up this Spring season.

Spring is late arriving this year and will be characterised by some strong if not fierce windy outbursts watch out for such conditions from 18th- 25th April for wild conditions to reign. This phase is also the best temperature wise and a great time to book a holiday in Ireland where it looks like the highest temps will be reported.
25th April to 2nd May looks like a slow moving system coming down from a low to NW region moves slowly across to the east spoiling the outlook a little but manifesting the continuing clash of highs with low and producing some high humidity and pluvial conditions along with mists and hazes.
June doesn’t look very flaming this year with some reminders of last year Jubilee conditions returning to haunt us and floods breaking out as rivers come full capacity creating flood alerts predominantly to the east and SE by 16th June, but the western parts are also under assault from heavy moisture mist and fogs hanging around some of those parts for weeks at a time prior to this.

Very unsettled conditions for this phase as Spring tries to break through, with some unseasonably cold conditions prevailing.

Mists and fogs to watery places will form as warmer temps try to ward off cold descending air masses, with mists and squalls more prevalent to the N East.

Very strong if not gale force winds arrive by 22nd with tornado breeding conditions likely to midlands SE regions.
Winds are very sporadic from 22nd onwards, strong at times and we will see transport systems affected as well as communication systems.

19-20th March unsettled weather with cold temps, potential frosty outlook and southerlies and NW air breeziness brining in some intermittent showery outbreaks localise with hail and sleet coming in and snow potential for high ground.
21st Cold day, some sun but attempts at warming by mid day, quick icy showers could ring in the start of this day.

22nd Very unsettled with sleet, hail and snow blizzards potential, the south looks to be worst hit by precipitation at this stage. Winds more lively becoming strong and gusty with tornado breeding conditions to S E Midland areas. Very strong winds to our region by 10 pm with blizzards likely to come in overnight into 23rd accompanied by high velocity winds t/out UK and some scattered electrical storms. Transport and communication systems upset by this outburst of squally weather. Areas between 30-40 degrees over in Europe also look to be having some fun with the weather at this stage.

23rd Very cold outlook, mostly cloudy, some sun attempts by mid day, sporadically strong winds continue with mists and fogs around late evening.

24th Spring makes another try at breaking through today, arriving later than usual. Some windy conditions stay around, outlook very unsettled, static conditions are lively so quick sporadic localised showers can be expected as the day begins particularly. Clearer skies before sunrise with some milder temps attempting to ward of the nippier ones ruling previous days. Mists and fogs near watering places as a result.

25th Clear skies to start us off a dry day with cold pockets but some good conditions for getting outdoors and flying your kite in the windy weather! We should see lots of sunshine along with some cloudy stuff. HURRAH!

26th Weather systems begin to move in an S E direction a cool sunny outlook with some cold pockets to contend with.

27th Looks more static and some electrical outbursts expected…difficult to locate these sadly…..read on…..

27th March-3rd April

Tricky chart to read with many hidden and unusual combinations of weather systems, so I’m not very confident of the forecast at this stage but here goes……
Previous combinations of the type we meet this phase arrived last year when mudslides affected the N E regions near Berwick upon Tweed and Hexham whilst down in East Anglia lovely summery weather broke out, though some spray did arrive to interrupt clearer conditions than those upsetting rail routes in other areas from 26th June.
News of mudslides not beyond the bounds of expectation…oh if only I had a team of workers I could be more specific…….

Not only that another similar outbreak of bad weather hit us in November 2011 when Stonehaven in Scotland got a 100 year record broken as floods broke out whilst in Hampshire mini tornadoes surprised a few folk.

I do expect some flooding for this phase and it does look likely to be the N E regions again, but hopefully I am so wrong you just ignore this forecast…here goes……..

27th Heavy rain looks likely to be travelling eastwards from the start of the day (start means after midnight) but we can also expect temps to rise today and dryness to prevail as day draws onwards with northerlies active trying to dry everything out and blow away the poor conditions……some Seismicity around last time this occurred it was Cumbria region….

28th Dry but cooler day some warmth from the sun by middle of the day when sun is stronger, but some cold pockets around especially in high exposed places, Cloud around late evening.
29th Broody outlook today if not oppressive, could be some sunshine around but again cold pockets keep things cool in shade by late evening, clouds forming could bring in some prolonged precipitation that lasts far into the night and into 30th…I am not dismissing flooding due to strain on drains and it looks like north and n eastern areas already pointed out in the intro that are vulnerable….

30th as already mentioned some sunshine could break out but some loud around also clouds if not mists by evening or it may be frost as well…..

31st Better outlook for today sunshine with cloud, milder conditions but sun manages to warm things up for the afternoon a little bit.

1st April Warmer or milder seasonal temps expect these to go up today…..

2nd Some precipitation to eastern quarters could be off shore Brid, Scarborough and Whitby….hope it isn’t Whitby under assault yet again….cooler temps sunshine around as well, some gusty weather to contend with also.

3rd read on as this looks quite changeable

3rd-10th April
Looking back over my weather history the last time we had a chart similar to this over the past four years was April 2009 when Mars was on the equator and whilst the temps were spring like and warm there was a lot of heavy rain and thunderstorms broke out to Leicestershire and beyond. Similarly January 2010 when icy temps reigned with arctic lows coming over, a lot of precipitation arrived along with thunderstorms to the Huddersfield and beyond regions, with floods due to thaws with Scotland hit badly by fogs and mists causing chaos.

This leads me to understand that we will get fogs and mists this time around, along with heavy precipitation in the form of wintery showers, hail sleet and snow very heavy amounts expected sometimes localised but t/out the UK by 7th possible overnight from 6th so prolonged and causing problems in its wake, with thundery outburst localised around 5-6th.

In brief this phase is cold, damp, misty, wet and windy……………………….potential for tornado or wind spouts for 5th-6th

3rd Gusty westerlies still around from yesterday with potential winter showers by afternoon
4th Cooler outlook, some sun southerly movement of weather quick sporadic showers by afternoon, localised so difficult to track.
5th Intermittent sporadic fast icy winter showers, heavier by evening, temps slightly milder. Some mists and haze developing near watery places due to cold and warmer air clashing and wind spouts potential to SW in Midland areas–more likely on 6th>>>>>>>>>>>>>
6th Isolated showery intervals broody conditions with humidity high giving potential to breed mists fogs and haziness, this looks denser to western quarters. Southerlies bringing in snow or winter showers with N W regions up to Scotland getting heaviest outpourings. The precipitation could last overnight into 7th
7th Winter showers throughout UK with some snow expected, very heavy at times and causing traffic upheavals, some regions could see flooding.
8th Sun trying to break through the haze milder temps around with some cold pockets to contend with, more spartan sudden and quick snow/hail/sleet outbreaks potential by afternoon.
9th Showers look likely to NW regions today with some gusty westerlies that could bring some of this precipitation over to our parts on the wind a hazy start early morning.
10th Some milder Spring conditions but humidity still high.

New Moon 10 April -18th
The theme for this phase is lack of sunshine, varying extremes of temps breeding viruses due to misty muggy conditions with some snow attempts coming over with easterly flows. Cold, mostly, but blustery with mistiness and fogs around.

10th Some sun attempts potential by the afternoon, localised showery outbreaks with westerlies, showers intermittent, fogs and mists over to western regions, some snow could come in with easterly flows to southern regions and reach here potentially but no promises, scurrying clouds, unsettled conditions.
11th Some more westerlies. Cool cloudy start of day trying to clear by breakfast, clouds mists could be hovering near watery places in valleys, mid day looks clearer but cool, more moderate temps varying by late afternoon. Wintery showery outbreaks more likely to east of us—-Far East over Europe but flowing towards us. I’m not ruling out some mists and mizzles for today and this could be from late in the day into morning on 12th
12th Seems to be a little milder but some cold pockets lingering, mid day could bring some sunny outbreaks, no guarantees at this stage, easterlies and north easterlies make it a little blustery.
13th Westerlies turn southerly by late in the evening. Looks misty or cloudy with potential for drizzle stuff in some localities. Cold pockets still around so wrap up warm. Misty or cloudy by midnight. Temps are very unsettled and can vary from some milder ranges to extremely cold.
14th Similar to yesterday, some dampness prevails with potential for mizzles.
15th Temps variable again but it does look milder by late evening, blustery breezy conditions blowing clouds along so sunshine in between cloudiness, but it does look a little hazy till late morning.
16th
Much milder temps prevailing but gusty westerlies still keeping things lively. Looks cloudy late evening and still blustery if not gloomy
17th Rain guaranteed today coming in from the west hitting us around 9 am depending on whether my pc has calculated the maths It does look clearing to better conditions by evening with milder temps….but this April don’t forget…when winter and summer battle it out.
Temps look to be rising by early 18th in fact it looks like a high comes in to make us feel summer is just around the corner….this is a very warm outlook…………………………….

April 18th-25th
The best place to be to hit the highs of Spring this phase is Ireland, especially Derry where the best of the temps break out to let us know summer has arrived……errrmmmmm except there is a cold front to the eat of UK warning that all isn’t as good as it looks. Some will hit the highs some will get the lows whilst some will get both on the same day! I’m not ruling out snow or sleet or hail either, and we will hear news of a big seismic event this phase to keep us glued to weather reports in the news……looks likely to hit the mid Atlantic Ridge as well as East of Japan.

18th Temps high tropical heat wave seems to bring a welcome invitation to strip off, but don’t be fooled….very high winds become active, but sultry conditions around by late evening
19th Another fair day fairer to the north rising temps north westerlies gusting and variable sun with cloud
20th Glorious weather expected……..high pressure moving eastwards some fierce erratic winds coming from west could prove troublesome however
21st Windy weather can spoil the outlook some lows clashing with highs will produce localised sporadic hail or sleet outbursts
22nd Winds still erratic sleet and hail potential arrives today after a clear start before sunrise, these wintery outbursts could continue intermittently t/out today and tomorrow as lows clash with highs, some clouds coming in mists and haziness could also develop, high pressure still moving easterly late evening clashing with cold and causing hail and winter showers.
23rd As yesterday very unsettled conditions so don’t take any sunny outbursts for settled weather as this can change from one minute to the next, though trends for warmer or milder temps by the afternoon, and some static outbursts likely with some northerly winds still gusty and strong.
24th Some mists clouds or haze by evening and a cloudy if hazy start of day, but the daytime should be fair, mild to warm temps if a little muggy but northerlies keep things fresh trying to ward off any bad weather threats.
25th Some high temps again but some cloud around with static cloudbursts potentially sleet or hail likely some arriving from midnight into the morning but sporadic and intermittent today.

25th April -2nd May
Some challenging conditions for me to read for this phase, so don’t rely on the outcomes too much at this stage which is the result of a partial lunar eclipse in sultry Scorpio promising some extremes of weather outcomes, so nothing is taken for granted….no guarantees but I don’t think I’ll find many trustworthy away days for this phase………………………….hopefully 1st and 2nd as well as 27th will prove best of the bunch. A low operates and can bring in a bit of a stormy outlook , some weather extremes highly likely, wind being one of them, and I am not discounting a snowfall attempt for some localities either–25th-28th highly likely suspects. OK just took a look at the weather expert Ken Ring’s email from January when he told me he expected snow for our region for 28th and 29th, so I seem to be on the right track here……..thank goodness…….

25th As above

26th Some static outbursts continue, but humidity is high and temps still seem sultry and mild with wind conditions nebulous and variable with northerlies and southerlies competing causing unsettled atmospherics. Some winter shower potential around along with some cloudiness but some sun spells.
27th Static and hazy conditions continue sun with cloud likely with the warmth going south leaving some mists potential mizzles and haziness or just cloud around early in the morning and evening.
28th A potential low operates and there looks to be a greater likelihood of windy weather and showery outbursts, some sleet or snow can shock some localities, but some clearer conditions by the afternoon this low looks more prevalent to the NW region where colder weather breaks out, but it will move slowly eastwards over coming few days passing us on its way. This system looks like a stormy outlook, showery rainy and a little gloomy. Cooler temps on previous days likely for next few days.
29th Cooler temps, very strong gusty westerlies clashing with easterlies creating blustery winds and showery outbursts as the low passes slowly east. Fogs or mists for evening
30th More showery stuff from the west before sunrise, winds continue gusty and blustery, but some sunshine expected to break out after sunrise but clouds around in the afternoon
1st Northerlies arrive and they usually bring in an attempt to clear things up a little, cold start but temps getting seasonally milder as day progresses, some cloud around with sun.
2nd Same as yesterday with some showery outbreaks risk for early morning but clearer outlook late afternoon and evening. Temps beginning to rise again…….

2nd May -10th
A static phase with some highs but this creates tendency for cracking thunder and lightening for many parts of UK which breaks out 4th-7th, but more likely for 5th in our region. My maps show low to he north with highs to the south and trouble when they meet………………………..
8th-10th will bring some showery conditions that are refreshing and clear up any residual static.

2nd As above, sun with cloud added, showers localised.
3rd Cooler outlook, easterlies bring in some broodiness, cold pockets around and air frosts likely overnight into 4th, mists and mizzles moves around UK with some hail and sleet outbreaks, most likely late evening for us.
4th Some squally conditions with WN Westerlies breeding occasionally very gusty air flows, sun with scurrying clouds. Some news of lightening strikes for some UK areas.
5th Our day for static outbursts -sporadic, intermittent with lightening and thunder likely.
6th Warmer temps today should be lovely bluer skies by the afternoon, variable winds with gusty westerlies strong at times. More static outbursts potential to some nearby regions –audible here also.
7th overnight air frost, cool outlook but fair weather gusty weather could continue
8th – 10th some fairer weather likely any showers will be refreshing and hopefully short-lived, pleasant outdoors even in the rainy spells– intermittent with variable winds continuing mostly westerly. This being a quarter moon the rule of thumb is drier conditions for midnight to mid-day.

10th -18th May
I’m trying so hard to find a good weather phase but am failing miserably, so let’s hope I got the whole thing wrong and the met says wonderful weather is about to break out….if only…
This map looks a little stormy and snow is likely to break out at any time on any day, when will we put it behind us I wonder. Floods to some regions west of us are also possible.
10th snow likely to be coming down of far NE of coast of Scotland, today is damp cool and breezy and may be strong at times snow is heralded for late evening…sorry about that…I could be wrong, but my chart says snow lands here around 22:19 and is likely to be heavy……..strong winds may accompany this influx
11th A warmer day so all that snow might thaw rapidly, it will be cloudier to the north today including us, with mists or lower visibility around sunrise but some outbreaks of hail and sleet showers also likely 607pm but no guarantees they don’t arrive at other times…
12th More snow potential by evening…………………………….cool during the day especially on high ground milder to southern parts of UK.
13th Sunshine with loud expected, weird and nebulous wind conditions turning north westerly could be some wind spouts, potential mists by evening and snow flurries not discounted
14th Icy, sunny, cool, breezy northerlies and westerlies calmer conditions.
15th Not the best day in fact mists mizzles and rainy outbreaks travel t/out GB today rain hail sleet and a bit of snow in the mix but skies clearer by late evening if you are sky watching…
16th A quick cloudburst not unlikely for start of day, temps moderate, breezy and occasionally very windy potential today gusty variable wind activity.
17th Warm and sunny with some cool pockets in shade and on high exposed areas settled outlook
18th Some icy sleet showery weather not long lasting sudden sporadic and intermittent auguring cold conditions temp wise. Wind activity variable lower temps, fairer to north GB.

18th-2 5th May
Hold on to your hats because this does look windy still BUT it does look like some fair weather breaks out…HURRAH……
Systems operating for this phase include real heat off south west coast of Ireland, oh the luck of the Irish,, the Orkneys look to be having fair weather too, it’s cloudier and more moderate from the Hebrides to mid south coast of England, while we get mostly fine conditions but any rain or gloom sets in while we are fast asleep….the 21st and 24th looks pretty temperate with some warmth to make seedlings spring up and sing.

18th- 21st looks like fair weather breaking out sleet showers still potential more to the south and eastern regions from 18th. Northerlies get strong on 19th and some cold pockets still remain in shade and on high ground, but fine weather for the daytime. 20th Fine skies for photography with gentler breeziness prevailing clouds forming later in the day and continuing overnight with some potential for sudden static outbursts continuing into early 21st. 21st Sees winds revving up and getting stronger north westerly and blustery as easterlies join in late afternoon, some showery outbreaks potential from very early morning, but temps rising during the day for a fair but very windy outlook till late evening.

22nd Looks to be higher temps kicking in warding off any cool pockets but some static build with mists or haze late evening potentially. Breezy weather.
23rd Blue skies some cloud breezy
24th lovely warm temps a hazy day, sun with cloud and gusty breezes
25th Today looks like some showery weather arrives by mid morning.

25th May -31st
The better temps are to SW tips of England -Cornwall– this phase. Wetter conditions prevail to NW Scotland, Ireland and SW Wales. A weather system passing down east coast moves further over to the continent from the outset. There is a flood or high precipitation warning for this phase but I think it will be in the wetter areas already mentioned to western regions.
Although temps do rise bring in some hope summer is around the corner, we get lower ranges of temps that break out for our region…sorry folks…go to Cornwall to get the best of the highs! East Anglia looks OK as well……

25th Fair for outdoors during the day, but some showery stuff could break out in localities around sunrise and evening around 6-7 pm, with fairer conditions southwards to us. Wins look gusty N Westerlies
26th Nice warm summery day shower potential till mid morning but some warmth in sun from mid day onwards
27th Some nice wool packed clouds in a bright blue sky, lovely outlook for photography, expect temps to rise again today.
28th Favours outdoors some easterlies turning southerly which can produce a little broodiness, but southerlies are warm but clouds breeding late evening, but a calm outlook weather wise for us.
29th Sporadic intermittent showery stuff could linger and be prolonged today, mists potential around sunrise after heat of yesterday breeding muggy conditions, I don’t see a lot of sun breaking out today.
30th Mists haze or cloud around to start the day, some finer weather by mid day as sun gets strong if it does break through the haze.
31st Similar to yesterday with the added ingredient of livelier windy weather but some fairer outlook can also arrive as sun gets stronger during the day. Mizzly and drizzly to western quarters if not higher levels of rain arriving with rivers at high to flood levels……………the conditions in the next phase see floods arriving in greater levels……………..read on

31st May -8th June

Wet, misty hazy foggy but some fair conditions to greet us as well. This is a Hollywood blockbuster weather movie with weather extremes battering Britain, and I can’t wait to see how it pans out. The plot is floods, floods, widespread floods and more floods and heavy rain when it arrives, record breaking weather breaks out. Flash floods to arrive, widespread, some misty dull weather to lowland in valleys and squalls covering limited areas and possibly near tornado outbreaks. Rivers will be flooding valleys, transport routes and flood plains for this phase…………………………………………..
Highs to SE tip of Kent at the outset, Ireland looks to get the worst of the downpours, rivers breach flood levels across the UK. 1st- 2nd looks set for thunderstorms breaking out.

31st Mists hazy start mizzles not unlikely, gusty westerlies, rain heavier to far western regions and to southern regions at this stage but it will move around the UK…..
1st Cold dry fronts from the north, dips to temps eastward with lows, rise in temps here, better temps milder to west but it does look like rain can circulate the UK today reminiscent of Jubilee days last year, oh dear, hope I am wrong….
2nd Showery outlook early morning could improve to sunnier later in day
3rd High humidity, mists near water, fairer to north, but some fair conditions as day progresses, calm outlook before the storm…….
4th Nice day sun with cloud, easterlies prevail so muggy atmosphere around.
5th should be a refreshing weather outlook even if a few showery localised arrive
7th Rise in temps today and over next few days, nebulous windy and muggy conditions, thick haze to lowland valleys, rising temps cloying and muggy, cloudy with cloudbursts expected, not good for air transport, scattered t/storms around UK, torrential rain expected with potential for flash floods and river breaches across UK western areas most affected….

8th-16th June
Some warm temps continue from 7th. Static, misty, muggy even squally to some parts and I expect very heavy precipitation to arrive with 9-11th singled out for first battering and overnight on 15-16th the second round of drenching levels leading to flood alerts. The general rule of thumb is the worst of the rainy weather arrives mostly from sunset to sunrise. More mists and mizzly breakouts to the west for this phase…..sea frets risks to those areas.

8th Strong westerlies gusty at time move away the southerly conditions yesterday and break into strong squally North Westerlies with unsettled outlook as a result of continuing conflicts between highs and lows. Some sun around between cloudiness but cool temps clash with warmth of rising temps in previous days, and there is a risk of whirlwinds and tornado breeding to midlands near eastern quarters.
9th A risk of heavy showers over to the west and south east, but they could also move over and reach our region later in the day, these could be hail sleet and snow mixed in, high ground vulnerable to snow elements more than us. This is Spring competing with summer and winter telling us not to forget to keep the wellies ready along with rain mac…..
10th Some sun might show its face between clouds coming over today, but with heavier outpourings coming overnight into early morning to sunrise on 11th Gusty westerlies keep things cool temps
11th Gusty westerlies and it looks squally for some regions inland misty and dull near rivers and watery areas, temps variable but sometimes trying to rise, Derry regions in Ireland as well as East Anglia seem to have some of the extremes around this date. Evening looks brighter but not for long as the bad conditions keep things dull again by 8 pm onwards approx.
12th Some finer conditions possible before sunrise, eastern areas look vulnerable to squalls whirlwinds and tornado breeding conditions, cold day but some sunshine. Mists and cloud could be difficult to get rid of near valleys by the afternoon and the risk of snow sleet or hail for 10 pm onwards, or it could just be fogs that I can see with news of blizzards biting hard and causing probs….
13th Some quick static outpourings again today but temps look more congenial, still on cool side, with the atmosphere getting fresher cold evening with clearer skies before midnight
14th Skies clearer at the beginning of the day around sunrise, a rise in temps fair outlook, rain again by late afternoon/ evening to northern regions and here, and northerlies revving up trying to clear up the muggy trends of former days…
15th better outlook today but don’t hold your breath….overnight rain expected again into 16th and rivers are by now at flood levels with southern and eastern parts of GB most at risk, sticky muggy day for 16th warmer temps but what a mess to some regions trying to dry out……..gusty NW might help a little but a risk of scattered t/storms also reigns.

Summer Long Range Forecast using original earth friendly satellite technology is already being viewed and will be posted asap……………..

Feedback Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorkshire and Yonder 3rd-19th July 2012

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FEEDBACK 3rd-11th July
Certainly there was a weather battle but only one person I know in the whole of the UK could insist drought was ruling the summer, and she lives in Oxfordshire. However, by the end of the week she apologised as more rains created floods to Cornwall ensuring she could no longer continue believing we were in the grip of drought as her town remained dry whilst the rest of us watched flood headlines raging all week!

Unsettled air certainly raged around and static burst arrived here by 4th and on 5th we were treated to a mega 1 hourly amount of thunderous outbursts with lightening and almost monsoon levels of rain by 6-8 pm Thursday 5th.
The drought was finally even if reluctantly, declared over as the last four water authorities in the south removed the dreaded hosepipe ban as waters welled up everywhere and overflowed, leaving no one in any doubt that we were having a washout summer season!

EARTHQUAKES
The seismic indicators brought an avalanche in Mont Blanc mountains where sadly two men from our region were killed by an avalanche along with others attempting to climb the French alps. I also expected reports of an EQ to Beijing region of China but the nearest I got was M6.3 – 99km S of Dushanzi, China 2012-06-29 21:07:32 UTC which is quite a long way to the SE of Bejjing which was where I expected a hit to be honest……
The Kazakstan ones weren’t in evidence for Omsk and Alma Ata but these hit Russia and I need to check if they are along the path I picked out for Omsk etc…
1 5.1 285km E of Kuril’sk, Russia 2012-07-11 02:50:02 45.344°N 151.519°E 49.3
2 5.7 281km E of Kuril’sk, Russia 2012-07-11 02:31:17 45.414°N 151.467°E
3 Quite a few at 4 or 5 magnitude east of Kuril’sk —– i.e 4.7 265km E of Kuril’sk, Russia 2012-07-08 16:58:28 45.465°N 151.259°E 49.4 and one bigger 6 + magnitude one for 8th July 6.0 268km E of Kuril’sk, Russia 2012-07-08 11:33:02 45.502°N 151.285°E

In fact most of the EQ for Russia were beyond 140 East, so it is interesting that I didn’t hit the target for my forecast on this occasion.

FLOODS AND LIGHTENING STRIKES TO EAST OF US

I did warn in February in my summer season blog, that countries one hour ahead of us for this phase would be the worst hit by weather indicators I saw in charts for this season and it seems I was correct and clearly Russia, one hour and more ahead of us, was one of the worst hit with 2 months rainfall arriving in only a few hours to cause chaos, Krymsk saw a third of houses flooded on 7th, some areas has flash floods rising seven metres high, and the port at Novorossiisk in the Krasnador region had to shut down. Many more similar headlines kept pouring out of Russia this phase accompanying some of our own weather headlines which were nearly as bad. People further east in Russia were hit by lightening striking children during unusually heavy storm in Moscow. 13.07.2012: 14 killed in lightning strikes in India’s storms JULY 13: Man survived after lightning strike in East Kazakhstan region. 11 July 2012, 11:04. I did warn that lightening strikes would be spectacular for this phase……….and they certainly were with headlines streaming in from all over the globe of hits to buildings and people in the northern hemisphere at least…

OUR LOCAL WEATHER RESULT
3rd was overcast very mild temps muggy conditions high humidity and a mild breeze but showery by 8pm onwards.
4th Cloudy muggy and showery by 4 pm thunderstorm by 5 40pm
5th-6th Dry bright but cloudy daytime but prolonged thundery outbursts by 6 50pm followed by torrents of rain till 8 pm then again into following day which was a complete washout as rain continued to pour relentlessly accompanied by mists I had said would characterise this summer’s weather. ( a good forecast for rain and static outbursts but a poor forecast for sunshine and blue skies in between!!)
7th No rain thank goodness, but the ground was exceedingly soggy and it was muggy and misty from the drenching of previous two days. Sun spells by late am full cloud for afternoon but sunshine till 7pm and just when you
thought it couldn’t rain any more it did at 7 10 pm…..in fact flood warnings were springing up all over the UK by now and sales of wellies and brollies must have rocketed…..
8th Ground soggy and spongy and slippery, cloudy am, temps mild, no breeze, cloudy pm showery rainy by 5pm approx very muggy conditions for evening. (not good days for the sunbathing I said you would get then–not enough
sunshine around !)
9th Sun spells to let us know what we are missing, cloudy though but dry, thank goodness, then heavy showers 1 pm onwards but drier later in day (unsettled as forecast)
10th Mists due to moisture till 2 pm overcast, drizzles and mizzles to keep us miserable no breeze and a cool temp. ( I forecast for highs but it didn’t feel that way though there was a lot of humidity around)
11th Some sun spells again and clouds around a quick shower by 9 30 am dry later and breezy, then sunny by 4pm average temps but still a washout summer, but this days forecast wasn’t too way out thank goodness…

I’m not surprised my forecasts are not as clearly successful as normal as the weather patterns are so unusually unsettled the lack of a stable pattern was difficult for any met to be confident of. I said ”Erratic weather conditions at this part of the weather phase…..” and for sure this was the best thing I could have forecast……erratic weather conditions seem to be the norm now for summer 2012……..Hebden Bridge got flooded three times by this stage of summer and within a few weeks of each other, not only that there are two many floods reports from all around the UK for me to incorporate them into my feedback so I’m just keeping to local outcomes as above, as I have recorded them.

FEEDBACK 12th July-19th

12th a dry day mostly sunny and some cloud around. fairly accurate forecast though no showers around at sunrise as forecast
13th Early shower overcast day so not a good forecast for today though as expected a dry day and no rain arrived
14th Tiny amount of spray 4 pm but otherwise sunny with cloud spells, breezy with ave temps but varying hot spells in sun. A very good forecast for today
15th Sunny day blue skies with white fluffy clouds, but winds were strong at times and blustery keeping things cool in exposed areas. Another good forecast, not sure what direction these cool winds were though
16th Overcast day some spray around 10 40 am, then rain around from 1-2pm, remaining cloudy. Very breezy afternoon. A very good forecast.
17th Very light spartan showers from early morning and again around 9am in our locality. I suspect other localities got variances on these time wise, showery attempts at intermittent intervals during the afternoon along with some sunspells and cloud. Showers continued at intervals in the evening when winds got stronger and more blustery. a fairly accurate forecast for today.
18th Overcast start, strong blustery winds/breezes. A mini shower around 9 am with clearer sunnier afternoon occasional high temps varying with cooling strong alternating breeze/windy weather
19thVery heavy very early morning shower leaving the morning feeling refreshed and cool, but temps got warmer during daytime with sunshine and cloud, though some localised spartan showers did browse around.

So long range forecasting arrives back on track at last…..
Don’t forget my full season is published on http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com always months ahead of the weather arriving with no last minute updates.

West Yorks and Yonder Weather Forecast 3rd – 19th July

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3rd July-11th July

Drought indicator battle with planets trying to produce cloud and unsettled air and more lightening or static outbursts for this phase. However, it does look like there are some windy trends that upset fine days and from the outset some disruptive weather unsettles the finer outlook. The drought phase, lasting till 2017 I might add, is hitting the south more than the north and looks like getting more noticeable for this time of year with farmers struggling to keep plants properly nourished.

There are some seismic indicators as well and this echoes disturbances such as those at Zermatt in January when an avalanche trapped people in the mountain village, also by end of January we had record snow and disruptions toair travel as well as people dying on street in eastern Europe due to the lows, with Heathrow and other airports encountering problems with flight schedules as well. This freak weather looks likely to occur again due to weather disturbances high up in the atmosphere, bringing in news from Eastern Europe about record breaking weather–could be t/storms that feature, causing problems.

This is a full moon phase normally the barbecue phase for summer addicts or for evening walks and al fresco dining. I honestly don’t think you will be disappointed, although the sun is apogee at the moment and this often means lower temps at this time of year, so I’m surprised to see so many planets battling to keep things summery for this phase, thank goodness.. I do expect some lightening strikes to be quite spectacular for this phase.

3rd brings in some gusty windy westerlies but still some southerlies around keeping things seasonally mild but I do expect temps to climb today also. Cooler outlook for evening so wrap up warm if you are planning a barbecue, and Ido recommend putting the fire in a sheltered place to avoid winds blowing flames where you don’t want them to be! The air is unsettled and as mentioned in the previous forecast I can’t rule out a flash t/storm for today ( oh dear as I post this on 5th I see I’m one day out again for the t/storm forecast as this occurred yesterday 4th at 5 40 pm!! WHOOPS how bad am I getting…yes I know I did these in February but I still shouldn’t be a day out with forecasts, sorry everyone) but these will be localised static outbursts and it’s difficult to see at this stage exactly where they’ll fall, but I do expect them to be over as quickly as they began with no lingering. (no it didn’t linger, but brought a five minute downpour, then another by 7-8pm speedily over so accurate on that score)

4th Could see some cloud around after a cool night but I also expect some sunshine along with continuing sporadic and gusty westerlies vying with southerly breezes. Some strong NW arrive mid afternoon but southerlies are staying around for a few days to stop things from turning exceedingly stormy or too cold. Temps will drop suddenly so be prepared to wrap up when they do.

5th-6th More static around lightening strikes potential, erratic hail, isolated showers very localised, with very strong gusty NW winds active veering strong gusty and westerly late at night on 5th staying until 6th. Some sunshine in between sporadic static outbursts, in fact there should be a lot of sunshine and blue skies making it an excellent time for photographers.

 Some seismic elements around as well so news of either volcanic outpourings or big EQ expected +/- 2-3 days. One of the areas singled out are Omsk and Alma Ata regions of Kazakhstan…..East region of Beijing alsovulnerable…..haven’t time to look at the southern hemisphere…

7th-8th Should see temps rising higher, drought conditions causing problems but good days for sunbathing I expect…..outlook unsettled from tomorrow so make the most of this trend

9th A scattered showery outlook, but not heavy for us if they do arrive here, very spartan indeed and a fine outlook for temps rising for our region and beyond. Changes begin to come in weather wise. Some fogs and mists or hazes could create problems for air traffic at this time expect increasing humidity and cloud from today.
Some windy conditions cause problems possibly to the SW region of England I’ll be on watch for tornado breeding but always get foiled by the fact that our British press prefers US tornado reporting to our own, making it impossible for anyone seeing a localised tornado to see the importance of reporting it sadly…….. Weather  conditions begin to change today with a more unsettled outlook reigning, isolated storms can spring up for some regions and by 10th it does look like the west is looking at some scattered showery conditions coming in after the highs create more static. The 10th looks like more highs are around with some northerly flows

11th Most likely day for rain to arrive from the west and travel east, but there is a drought indicator as well, but this may just have blocked precipitation being too heavy in previous days, so although temps are seasonally high I don’t see this rain being heavy or prolonged, more like a sudden outburst that soon passes over and refreshes the atmosphere from early morning Erratic weather conditions at this part of the weather phase…..

11th-19th July
Some high temps arrive again halfway through this phase but we can also expect some cold and draftiness from variable  breezes and windiness gusting at times from 11-15th Easterlies get stronger by 15th with gusty westerlies strong and speedy at times by afternoon on 16th, but temps climb faster from today. Rain more than likely for 17th and 18th

11th As previously forecast
12th A dry sunny day expected any showery outbreaks would arrive at 6-7 am potentially
13th Some cloud around from 1am with potential for shower but by sunrise it looks like a fine weather outlook for today. seasonally average temps continuing
14th Sunshine and cloud around with warmth from sun, clouds expected to form by evening when some easterlies get kick started and warm air could create haziness to watery areas.
15th Fine start some clouds forming quick sporadic probably localised showery precip around 5-6 am cool start but sunny with temps rising as sun gets higher easterlies prevailing
16th Cloud or rain expected mid morning and some quick hail showers can arrive bringing localised sporadic scattered outbreaks again by late afternoon. Gusty westerlies could be bringing in some rain late afternoon, getting gusty and speedy at times.
17th Expect some high temps to reign today but around 1am some showery stuff could water the garden and this could be a longer rainy spell than in previous days So it could be a cloudy start that develops into sunshine and blue skies as the day progresses with warmth increasing.
18th Some mists cloud or haziness, even showery stuff at start of day and into the morning but a fine afternoon is likely with temps climbing a little higher than yesterday, but this could result in some cloudiness with showery stuff by evening ….19th looks wild and windywait for next phase to be posted………………

 

Here’s hoping I redeem my forecasting for these two weeks of weather predicitions:-)