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Spring Weather 30th April-12th May 2012 W Yorks and Yonder

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29th April-7th May

The theme for this phase is wild and windy, don’t take your sailing boat out, or try flying a kite….good for getting the washing dry or finding all autumn leaves have now been swept away from the garden!
Some unusual weather for this phase with the overtone being wild if not gale force high speed winds causing havoc if not destruction to many UK areas and we will not be able to avoid the centre of this system blowing over.
High humidity is also around with warmth trying to encourage spring plants but causing moisture to rise and break out into cloudbursts. Some mists in valleys due to warmth from sun as well as rising temps but also some sunny weather around to enjoy, though the winds are going to be keeping everyone busy and will not allow much settled  enjoyment of what sunny days do arrive.
Scotland and exposed regions to North England gets hit far more violently than us with the wild and windy stuff will need to watch the headlines, and tornado to SW also needs watching for…

29th Early showery outbreaks as previously mentioned along with some whiplash westerlies creating wild conditions outdoors in exposed regions, but some sunshine as well.
30th Humidity begins to accumulate along with strong winds from yesterday continuing, but also some sunnier spells. Lovely blue skies expected by evening when northerlies are most active keeping things cool.
1st Showery outbreaks potential very early around sunrise, temps should rise today as sun gains height in sky, but westerlies are now kicking in with strong and erratic speeds, occasionally gale force or sometime quite fast. Sunshine with varying cloud levels.
2nd Intermittent sporadic showery conditions likely, temps remain seasonally warm in sunny areas, winds very strong to high speed gales especially overnight tonight and continuing into tomorrow.
3rd Seismic outlook so some news of the larger types of EQ for UK around this date, Heavier outbreaks today some will be rain, hail and even sleet, cutting at times. Conditions could be set to get a little milder but this brings potential for mists. Later in the day this should clear and turn into better weather conditions. Winds strong to high speed gales…a stormy outlook with echoes of the blizzards that hit Doncaster November 2010.I do expect the winds for this phase to create some damage and disruption to normal services.

4th-5th The rain will be moving over to eastern parts, leaving us  with a better outlook and temps rising to warmer ones, but some cold pockets lurking in shady and exposed areas. Should eventually be a good day for photographers with some electric blue skies. Tornado likely +/- 2-3 days today to SW region of UK.

6-7th  6th looks cool with cloud around clashing with warmer temps of previous days. Southerlies turn into strong easterlies by 7th but the worst of the wild and windy conditions look set to be subsiding but there could be some sporadic showery outbreaks, but good outdoor weather begins to break out and some sunshine to enjoy…..Some mistiness could lurk over valleys and near water 6-7th.

The Full Moon on 6th May is in Scorpio and is a very rare one ( a spring tide or Supermoon) as one astronomer  found it culminated within 1 minute of close perigee position, which is a hard record for any previous Full Moon to beat—-read this website for more….http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html

7th May-12th
There is a tendency for temps to try and rise this phase adding to humidity and some potential for static to build.  This is the closest perigee moon of 2012 and being in Scorpio can bring some extreme conditions affecting some regions of the globe. I haven’t taken time out to look at and locate many EQ for this Spring, though my winter forecasts are working very well as I write this in February when my forecast for an EQ In France has come true.
Coolness added to humidity, as summer tries to break through, will breed the static atmosphere which may create some muggy cloudy or misty conditions at the start of the phase. I’m just hoping I’ve balanced the timing and arrival of rising temps with other indications for cold dull weather, combined with some fine conditions trying to pass over our way as well for this phase. It’s such a shame Mercury keeps playing with Saturn as these two cause the duller conditions that interrupt some of the finer weather that otherwise would prevail for this phase, but there will be warmth from the sun its shady areas that keep hold of icy pockets. This kind of weather is when moisture rising in response to heat from the sun creates haziness.
7th Any showery outbreaks arrive early morning some cooler conditions compared to previous days with easterlies producing a little dullness. The Moon in Sagittarius can also bring some sun into play so lets hope there is some around between cloudiness that looks set to develop mid afternoon,  the evenings look clearer. Temps rise today and should reach above average with icy pockets left to shady areas.

8th Cold overnight and before sunrise with cloud around or dullness. Showery potential around sunrise, but hopefully some clue sky to come,  occasional lively and gusty N Westerlies, lower temps mingling with some warmth from humidity created by rising moisture as sun gets high during daytime, and it should be a fair day with few clouds,  though a Full Moon period often allows better skies at night.
9th -12th  After 9th looks drier. 9th looks to be the wettest day with N Westerlies trying to ward off any poorer weather and blowing clouds away. We could see better weather from later in the day on 9th continuing for the next 3 days with some mistiness around watery areas as temps rise, but cold pockets to shady areas. Winds are less active and some fine sunshine should be around to chase away any gloominess. Some more mists and/or cloudiness and N Westerlies on 12th…the good news is by 13th…it looks especially lovely and sunny and warm…….

Read www.amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is now posted keep coming back to find out

what awaits us in the summer season….go to www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

FEEDBACK 13th-29th April Spring Weather W Yorks and Yonder 2012

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FEEDBACK 13th -21stApril

Gales as forecast arrived to south and Bristol Channel 17th as well as mists to that some parts of England by 18th, so the overview for this phase was intact in that respect. Transport problems hit the headlines due to air flights at Heathrow being grounded due to a fire in one of the planes, but also weather warnings Wednesday 18th saw some slow-moving downpours, with hail and thunder. Some surface water flooding lead to difficult driving conditions, while coastal gales still raged at Bristol. Also, roads may be slippery in heavy hail bringing transport problems as forecast.

The mists and fogs I forecast arrived to the south regions by 17th and 18th.

13th Early showers before sunrise an overcast morning but fresh outdoors with some sun spells by 1 30pm. Temps cold, and sporadic light showers late in day and evening….hail showers for us 4pm approx. So my temps forecast not good for today which wasn’t as mild as expected.
14th Dry overcast am fresh nippy temps a little breeze around, with light intermittent showers further to west at Ilkley during the afternoon etc but remaining dry here
15th Sunny start cloudier by mid day chilly breezes keep things cool in sun, hail outbursts mid afternoon
16th Sunny start clouds thicker by mid day breezy but dry day, temps cool. I forecast potential rain for today but it remained dry, we were breezy here rather than windy.
17th Possible early showers, continuing till 10 00 am cloud with sun spells breezy and milder than yesterday but strong windy outbursts by 1 pm with more prolonged sun spells, showery again by 4 30pm with precipitation coming in with the winds which here became very strong almost in a funnel of speedy vortex bringing hail with it 6-7pm. Fogs and mists warning given out for south regions, so this part of my overview was accurate.
18th a Very rainy day from the start!! No sun shine till late pm………but rainy mizzle and drizzle kept breaking out and continuing into 19th giving us two days of wetness and miserable weather, with floods to Pocklington North Yorks for today….
20th Dry, bright but cloudy some short showery outbursts 12 pm Storms were very widespread to south of England today
21st Chilly, breezy sun with cloud at start of day sleet by 11 20 am more sleet hail outbursts in the afternoon, further to west at Ilkley and beyond had very heavy downpours…no electric blue sky day that I forecast sadly! Getting the washing dry wasn’t an option today either….apologies…..

Not a brilliant forecast this phase, with the prolonged rainy spells 18-19th not factored in, as well as sunshine forecasts being way out as well. The overview was very accurate but the daily forecasts for our locality were not reliable.

FEEDBACK 21st-29th April

Thankfully I got back on track by mid week with this weeks forecast, after being wide of the mark for the last phase. I wasn’t surprised at how the 22nd turned into a rainy day contradicting my prediction as this was a phase that activated the earlier Scorpio perigee and I was watching closely so see what the impact would be and I did make it clear I couldn’t be sure whether it would pour it down or not as this was a new situation not encountered for the past ten years. It did rain and quite heavily at intermittent intervals, and just when you thought it would stop and go away it started up again till overnight into 23rd…….no sunshine around at all to shout about….even the ducks look miserable at this stage…..

23rd was dry by breakfast, though ground was swimming and puddly, and the temps were cold, but the sun attempted to break through by afternoon and if you managed to catch it, there was some warmth coming through to remind us of better times. This didn’t last long though and soon after the clouds threatened rain which became heavy by 5 30 pm approx perhaps confirming the 90% rule I told you about New Moon and better weather sunrise to sunset…
24th Sunny blue sky start deteriorated into overcast mid day, but dry, ave temps and very sunny by 4pm…..no conditions for the sun soak I was hoping for, but certainly an improvement on miserable days before….
25th -26th These two days brought prolonged rainy spells at times very heavy the forecast for these two days was pretty accurate….thank goodness….by 7pm on 25th the rain was torrential here and some showers on 26th also brought torrents causing flooding to roads locally. Visibility was poor due to rainy conditions and hilltops were obscured by mistiness of precip.
27th Short showery outbreaks in the morning, but the sky was cloudy, not sunny but the sun was trying to breakthrough by mid day and afternoon, giving us some brightness to sing about….and temps were much milder with some warmth trying to breakthrough. There were some brisk and lively breezy conditions around. The seaside resort to be today was St Anne’s which experienced a lovely sunny day.
28th Overcast and very windy by evening, some hail outbreaks mid morning and mid afternoon, temps cool skies clearer by evening a reasonable forecast for today though not exactly ”fine” it was better than previous days 29th Rain rain and rainageddon….can’t wait for warmageddon to arrive………….

A very disappointing forecast and no I didn’t see this level of consistent rain and near flood levels for W Yorks, so apologies for that…..though the clue was in my forecast that a same chart last

year ended the drought spell bringing in rain and I also warned that I wasn’t sure of how the apogee opposite perigee would manifest for this phase…..

Read http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is now posted keep coming back to find out

what awaits us in the summer season….go to http://www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

W Yorks and Yonder Long Range Weather Forecast 31st March-13th April

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March 31st-April 6th 

Outlook is for very cold temps to begin with but sunshine to brighten us up, and some warmer temps by 4th helping us look forward to summer. The windy weather continues and I expect reports of a t/storm to some region of the UK.

31st Strong gusty NW, lashing everything it meets, high speed to some regions. Sunny outlook but temps retaining icy pockets, cloud around but clearing as sun grows stronger by mid day. Potential for quick isolated hail outburst late afternoon

1st – 4th April some cloud around with nippy icy pockets, but lots of sunshine to enjoy by mid day. It’s the winds that create problems during these few days, any showery outbreaks icy cold hail or sleet, look set to arrive around midnight
4th Should see temperatures rising a little, wind still strong and gusty, some sunshine with cloud. Temps on high ground expected to drop to lows.
5th Same as 4th but cloudy or misty start and more cloud around in the evening, quick hail/sleet showers by midnight. Temps getting warmer with humidity around producing some warmer almost tropical outpourings to some regions beyond ours. Winds should be less active by today.
6th Sunny, and looks like  the warmest day of all, but some mists and clouds as a result. Some broody easterlies and southerlies warding off the cold pockets of previous days. A misty cloudy start but temps getting much more agreeable as day wears on.

6th-13th April

A similar chart to this one occurred in October 2009 when heavy rain arrived giving floods to Scotland. I do expect t/storms to be reported to some regions of the UK.

Well first of all we have the infamous perigee moon that always brings headlines to read about some major weather induced incident…I hesitate to say disaster as I don’t want to follow global warmers who hog headlines with disaster warnings all the time…since Aristotle’s day as it happens….still on with the weather…

This perigee moon gave a me a headache as earlier in February ( the same week I am writing this I might add) when I fully expected good old Scorpio Moon to bring heavy rain if not flooding, I was humiliated by the total drought that ensued!! Yes I VERY ACCURATELY forecast a weather system coming down from Foroyar which it did, and resulted in a high pressure system that blocked the Moon in Scorpio from delivering the floods I expected….Harrumph.  Iwas so annoyed at not expecting this to happen! So much so, that I hesitated to deliver this spring forecast which I was working on at the time, and felt like throwing in the towel on astro forecasting!
I still might have to if I have to resort to using jargon such as high and low pressure and isobars which is not what I want to do.

In spite of the above, there will be some fine weather to enjoy and evenings for this phase usually bring pleasanter conditions, while there will be some windy weather and some rain around–well it is a perigee moon phase…..but there is also a massive drought indicator as well planet wise…
Oh and if you are laughing at the fact the moon perigee has anything to do with weather….shame really as there are some immaculate studies that show a significant correlation between high precipitation at the time of perigee moons, though of course not all perigees will bring high levels of rainfall.
6th as forecast previously

7th Some mists or cloud around, muggy conditions with easterlies and southerlies active keeping conditions seasonally mild outlook is for rain heavy at times for late afternoon with some clearer skies late evening and overnight

8th Some showery outbreaks 3-5 am, unsettled atmosphere with cloudiness around till later in afternoon, temps cooler than yesterday, some sporadic breeziness southerly and westerly for today and tomorrow.

9th Same as yesterday with some potential for sporadic hail and sleet outbreaks. Sun with cloud during day.

10th-11th Cloudy start but sunnier afternoon and evening, temps cool. 11th looks brighter than 10th

12th Sun with cloud around, temps warming up, some easterly breeziness and clear evening skies good for outdoors and gardening or even a stroll…famous last words!

13th  Sunshiny start and looks like some nice spring temps remind us summer is just around the corner…easterly breezes keep the warmth notched up.

Read amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and the WHOLE OF Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is nearly ready to post to keep coming back to find out what awaits us in the summer

season….go to www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

 

Apologies for the display in this forecast, can’t figure why changes aren’t being made by the edit in wordpress….hopefully it wont affect the weather outlook:-)

18th December -1st January 2012 Long Range Weather Forecast for W Yorkshire and Yonder

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18th Some N Westerlies active icy temps, winter snow showers highly likely with snow bearing cloud coming over but some sunshine around between         showers.
19th Fogs/mists around especially in low lying valleys, clearing mid morning but returning late evening combining with nebulous breezy twirls.
20th Frosty or foggy outlook. Snow clouds again from very early in the morning could bring more wintry fall during afternoon, clearer skies around mid day                some mists fog by evening and S Easterlies flows for us with poorer weather to the W and SW of the country.
21st S Easterlies unsettle the outlook and bring scattered winter showers and more snow for high ground. Frosty start with sudden hail or sleet outbursts  from          7-8 am for our region clearer skies with    some sun mid day, and potential for snow flurries  mid afternoon and evening coming in from over western                  regions.
22nd Icy cold outlook brings in some mists and fogs, very unsettled outlook for today for sure, but some sun outbreaks can keep us optimistic for better days               ahead. There will be ice around but also some thawing during daytime so take care of slippery conditions when travelling.
23rd N Westerlies, strong at times, clear away some of gloom and better conditions begin to arrive with sunshine but cold temps during the day. Fogginess                  around overnight 23/24th
24th Some fair outdoor weather again conditions similar to yesterday but N Westerlies turn into some southerlies  making it moist and cooler to North UK,         slightly more temperate to S England. Could be a few quick ice sleet or snow outbursts in the afternoon coming in from the West.  Looks like we get some sunshine also to herald Christmas Day.
22nd for this phase is cold enough to snow and heralds a few days to follow that are lovely sunny, cold with the bluest of skies…get your camera out…but freezing fog outbreaks could arrive in the evening and overnight with icy or oily conditions on roads and footpaths.
24th December -1st January
This is a Full Moon for Christmas day and on such a day we can generally expect the daytime to be fairer with any poorer weather arriving at night.

Everyone wants to know if it will snow on Christmas Day and in October I was in the local BBC radio studios with one of the TV mets who was asked to say whether snow would arrive today. No answer arrived, and I had to say we both wouldn’t expect snow in Leeds on Christmas Day as it is a highly unusual occurrence. However, I also said I hadn’t yet done the charts for this time of year and now that I have……..well I’m not so sure!

Certainly there is some white stuff around from the start and that is likely a leftover from the previous phase. Some snow can be seen to be forming off the coast of SW Iceland on 24th and definitely heading our way, it’s likely to hit NW Scotland by 25th so they are the lucky ones. or not…! It could arrive here by the afternoon on 25th.. so Santa Klaus looks like sending us a nice timely white gift wrapping…or not if I’m way off the mark. I am 100% sure this is snow arriving however, by the time it reaches us in the afternoon the sun could be strong enough to turn it into sleet or rainy weather, so don’t hold your breath….I only give a 95% forecast that it will snow in Leeds on Christmas Day, and do wish I could be more certain.

25th Brings potential for snow flurries  around 3. 45 am , then again another try  around  10 30 am, with cloud/mists in valleys but clearer skies by afternoon with sunshine and some southerly flows around. By around 20:15 it is likely that winter snows hail and sleet showers will be around to West and N West of England

26th Some sun and cloud in the morning, mists in low lying areas, clearer skies  by 5-6pm. Southerlies are still active but temps take a plunge when N Easterlies join in the affray and snow likely again today localised and scattered late evening 22:00 approx. Boxing Day can often be a sunny outdoor day and this looks set to follow the pattern..

27th Potential for snow to continue falling into the early hours 1 am onwards this morning leaving a cold frosty outlook to start the day, sunshine likely by late morning with temps less cold than previous day

28th No precipitation expected here, and it should clear to be a sunny day with some N Westerlies around

29th Slightly milder temps but similar to yesterday some  S Easterlies which often make the atmosphere a little muggy.

30th Some frostiness with a quick sharp showery micro and localised outlook potential for mid afternoon, cold nippy temps Strong winds, though variable at times, for the next three days mostly NW clearing the atmosphere.

31st Showery from around 4pm with winds as described yesterday intermittent rain throughout is likely.
1st January 2012 More moderate temps with sunshine during the day but windy conditions as described on 30th.

My FULL Weather Forecast for the 2012 Winter Season is now uploaded onto my website www.starsite.org.uk and is also produced on my blog at  amazingweather.wordpress.com

 

Feedback 4th-12th October West Yorks and Beyond

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FEEDBACK 4th-12th October
4th Tuesday Rain had moved to far east regions today leaving us still cloudy but bright, breezes turning to very strong windy weather by 2 30pm, seasonally moderate but cool temps by evening, with conditions for thunder reported from Staffordshire region from 3rd and northern parts of Scotland for today.
5th Wednesday Very strong winds, sunshine with cloud spells, sudden spartan showery condtions from 7-7:30pm onwards
6th Thursday Showery conditions from last night continue for short intervals throughout the day, heavy at times, sun with cloudy spells with scattered showers across the region keeping temps cool. Fast icy hail outbreak around 4 pm.
7th Friday scattered showers continue across the region till around 6-6:30 am fizzling out to very spartan leaving us with longer sunny intervals today, light cloud and still very windy.
8th Saturday No sun at all, just rain bearing clouds and intermittent drizzle throughout the day, along with nebulous breezes, rain continues into evening but no thundery outbreak in immediate locality, temps seasonally moderate
9th Overcast day again with sun a temps around 4pm but only fleeting. S W winds around, drier day than yesterday.
10th Blustery winds drizzly mizzly day ground wet and cloudy day. Strong overnight winds 12 am onwards into 11th
11th Blustery strong winds from 1am, calmer as day wore on, to breezy by mid day, ground still wet and muggy mizzly drizzly rainy outbursts during morning, settling to drier weather for afternoon with breeziness prevailing. Mistiness down in valleys and near canals rivers during morning to mid day…as forecast in my predictions…good forecast for today

You can read the following online account of how well part my weeklyweather forecast fared in a test of skill between myself, leading met John Kettley the Met Offfice AND……a penguin and a baby……yes really a penguin and a baby…………..  http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/3862336/You-better-ask-a-baby-about-weather.html

 

Read http://amazingweather.wordpress.com for longer range predictions/weather forecasts for AUTUMN 2011 or go to https://ukweatherbrief.wordpress.com
Read http://learnastrometeorology.wordpress.com to find out some interesting information about weather forecasting visit … http://www.starsite.org.uk/1491.html for more discussion astro meteorology and access FREE lessons in weather forecasting and lots of free book downloads with much more..