AUTUMN WEATHER 2013: W. YORKS: UK: LONG RANGE FORECAST

Autumn 2013

Writing this in early July 2013, after the heady heatwave that broke by 22nd, it’s easy to see more heatwaves continuing well into Autumn….in our dreams. Certainly the season starts with some highs and the area between GB and

Europe is where the best temps reign supreme for a while, so eastern GB looks to be enjoying some nice highs at this stage. To the west of GB some highs also linger but with mists and hazes and some cloud that stops Sun
performing as well as we would like. This looks like turning very autumnal by 5th October when I expect high winds and some stormy outcome.

In fact I expect signs of autumn to show early in leaves and grass due to the drought conditions that left herbiage unquenched and needing sprinklers to keep them moist. In such conditions we get early drop and dying out of
summer growth, the signs usually associated with Autumn in fact.

October charts brought a bit of a challenge. First of all for three weeks we get the same indicators for similar weather patterns for three weeks of the month from 5th-18th and even by 26th there is only a slight variation on the theme with a more intense outlook being generated.

Winter makes its presence around the corner quite clear by 10th November phase when temps try to remain mild but begin to give way to an icy cold front and freezing mists and fogs by 12-13th and this could create some transport
problems. it was chilly just looking at these temps let alone living with them!

This forecast takes us up to the end of November and will be updated in October to take us up to Christmas.

September 2013

FM 19th-27th September
Could be some outpourings to the west prior to this phase, with any residue meandering eastwards from the outset on 27th. If you can remember back in 31st May and first week in June, the Mets kept telling us about the Azores
high and sure enough we got mosquito outbreaks in its wake!

We will still be enjoying a continuation of some good weather for this phase, another potential Azores streak that bathes us in some nice seasonally high temps. NW Scotland could see some variable temps with occasional
dullness, mists haze and cloudiness depending on altitude and this could slowly move further down the west. But overall a good weather trend to enjoy.

27th October-5th October

This is where Autumn discernibly moves in.

The fair weather continues for a few more days, but temps get cooler as the phase progresses growing autumnally cold by 30th when I expect precipitation to hit NW regions, i.e lakes area. Unsettled conditions turns the tide on the good weather from 29th with winds growing restless and ready to blow off the dead leaves. Winds grow ever more erratic by 1st keeping things cool and a little chilly, with sporadic rainy outbursts, mizzle and drizzles heralding the end of summer and dawn of Autumn. Temps much cooler by 3rd onwards when winds rev up in speed and temps grow even more variable and cold, could mean gales for some regions, but some sunshine afterwards for last 2 days I would think.

5th-11th October
The cold weather looks likely to continue with gentle southerlies around at the outset trying to ward off any bitterness, but with northerlies above we can expect mostly clouds forming and localised showery outbursts from 5th, moving eastwards.

By the 7th the weather gets much more unsettled with mists haze and cloud around watery places, with warmth and cold air vying with each for space. I expect clouds if not mists and haze to predominate by late afternoon or
evening, particularly to the eastern areas of our region.
8th Brings a cloudy morning, some mists may linger, more showery outburst likely. Easterlies predominate increasing cloudiness as the day wears on, erratic gustiness makes things unpleasant if not a little stormy with NW one of
the areas of GB most vulnerable to these outburst and squalls. Could be hail or sleet and it is cold so I’m not ruling out snow arriving or heralded by these weather conditions, and it could be highland areas that gets news of the impending arrival.
9th slightly milder conditions, snow still likely as previously mentioned and showery outbursts localised but very heavy at times, but some sunshine spells around to brighten up the outlook.
10th-11th Southerlies blow with a slight rise in mists and haze lingering , high humidity and isolated cloudbursts with heavy downpours for many regions, again looks most likely to North east and west at this stage.
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1th-18th October

Clearer but cooler conditions rule off east of GB with these slowly moving in later this phase. Milder temps look more likely to far west of UK and this could clash with fogs and mists forming when the two meet.
Residual flood conditions could still be taking up traffic news at the outset and the NW region looks like one of most likely candidates.
A more biting chill factor arrives after 16th when temperatures will get colder as days progress, reminding us winter is on the way.

I expect sporadic isolated cold showery outburst 12-13th, hail or sleet for high places, some cloud to contend with but winds blowing them about creating some windows for sun to shine through now and again. Winds can be gusty
on some days. 13th sees snappy westerlies gusting at times and easterlies bringing in a cloudy outlook with localised showery outbursts, most likely before lunch, 15th and 17th stronger gusty outlook.

14th colder with some sun spells and less likelihood of showery outbreaks
15th Much more unsettled, winds get gustier and lustier and sharp
16th temps move cooler than previous days with frosts likely but a crisp atmosphere more moderate winds and clear visibility with lovely skies. High places could see snow and will be much colder than in lower areas.
17th Rain hail or even sleet, could be heavy at times beginning in the morning for us. Winds gusty, cold coming in from east, a touch of frost early in the morning and at night also heralded for the end of this phase.
18th seems to herald a likelihood of scattered showery outbreaks but read on………………..

18th-26th October

A continuation of similar weather to the last phase but with echoes of a chance of breaking the 1985 March Cambridgeshire 29.4C high on 1st October, but this time it looks at if Suffolk beats the temps with Felixstowe region the most likely winner. Certainly highs rules there from the 18th. This temp was broken 1st October 2011 when 29.9C was hit at Gravesend Kent, and highs will reach by18th a well.

The theme for weather in October 1985 for a similar chart to our current one was showery outbursts with thunder around the UK for 6 days between 2-9th October, and this pattern will repeat as some mugginess and warmth moves
in and isolated torrential downpours arrive as the phase unfolds. Some outbreaks can be short sharp hail showers as at Stainburn Cumbria when 20mm stones hit unsuspecting passers by on 4th of that month. The west of GB as
well as Scotland got the worst of the rain by 6th with snow falling to Cairngorms and Highlands 8th-9th—I expect a similar pattern to emerge as days progress. 1985 brought an Azores High into play and we miss the full heat of this
but a warm front is forming far wet and north of the Azores and we can expect some semi tropical lows to come over, but this is likely to form mists, haze clouds and fogs as it clashes with some of the colder air from 16th.

Isolated and scattered thunderstorms expect, to our region.

Sunset to sunrise should see less to no rainy outbursts for the most part and temps are very mild for the time of year. Evenings look likely to be a bit muggy and foggy, when usually a Full Moon sees clear night skies, but this
could change after midnight for a short while till after sunrise when precipitation favours falling at this stage of the moon.

Winds could get very lively to some regions with westerlies gusty and cutting at times, and northerlies joining in by 23rd but these usually bring a turn in the weather outlook and can clear up and bad conditions.

18th As previously forecast but the scattered showery stuff looks to be moving eastwards and seems further south. This is the day when Suffolk and SE regions get the highs. news of thunderstorms for GB could also be breaking.
Sun spells likely for us.
19th I expect a dry day with northerlies seeing off any total cloud cover forming, but it can be a little muggy with these temps. Fogs and mists likely near water over next few days.
20th Atmospheric disturbances expected from today. Localised sporadic downpours erratic, and intermittent during the day, heavy to some regions, ours too. A seismic time with EQ news for SE Russia or NE China…132E lat
55-60N long but 21st has more signals for exactitude? Semi tropical lows arrive with high humidity and cloudburst slowly circulating, thick hazes and fogs can also form with travel over the Atlantic under stress in these conditions. Gusty on occasions but mostly nebulous and variable breezes and winds.
21st Could be a drier outlook but high humidity and some cloud mists and fogs to valleys.
22nd Quick isolated and localised hail outbursts, but temps seasonally mild generally, very unsettled weather outlook.
23rd We can expect extremes of temps for the season to be causing raised eyebrows but I expect them to be on the warm side rather than colder than expected (famous last words!) Weather now gets pulled eastwards for a few
days and it does seem a little squally with variable winds, gusting at times and strong to NW and Scotland causing some travel problems on roads and highways. More mists fogs and haze around and by 24th onwards isolated
rainy weather travels eastwards with muggy conditions .
25th has some promise for sun spells and more semi tropical type temps but accompanies by mists and haze, so it looks like a cloudy night is heralded keeping the temps seasonably mild. Haze expect, mists and fogs to valleys
with variable winds continuing.

Oct 26th-3rd November

Perhaps levels of rain might be lower than we usually expect, and temps milder than expected for this time of year, and East Anglia seems to be getting a lot of the better ranges of sunshine with perhaps drier conditions and warmer
temps than the rest of us, I’m not ruling out drought conditions creating some problems for the region either.

For this phase I expect thunderstorms to arrive but little to no floods, although by the end of the phase heavier rain is likely, but the NW looks likely to get some pretty sharp or extreme outcomes.

Tornado Alley in the US looks busy at this time also.

26th Variable winds from the outset, some sunshine around but clouds developing, temps on the mild side

27th-29th Some quick sleet and sporadic showers expected, localised and intermittent but temps still mild generally and high humidity with occasional cloudbursts–quite sharp and heavy by 29th where NW sees the heavier precipitation.

From 29th weather gets easterly cloudier and skies duller and storms can be pushed northwards+ NE with outlook clearer for the southern regions. This system looks fast moving and consists of rain turning to sleet, snow with hail outbursts with winds breezy, very gusty and temps getting lower with rainfall cooling them off, some wild and windy weather is also expected.

1st Nov looks less unsettled with some chance of sunshine and clearer skies for days ahead, but breezy conditions are very active.

The last two days will have some sunshine during the day, but look more likely to see some rain travelling across by evening for us and for southern regions as well and strong westerlies remain gusty if not blizzard like, but some sunshine could also break out, but I expect snow to be in the news at the outset of our next phase Dublin and some parts of GB look to be white by 3rd, could be frost or snow…read on……

3d Nov-10th

A cold front arrives during this phase but turning milder by the end. 4th and 8th look to be the main culprits for wet weather, but other days can bring in some cold showery outbreaks. Winds should be less active for us.

3rd Looks like a little warming for southern regions anyway, but there is also cloud around and cold pockets, with rain sleet and snow showery outbreaks.
4th A low system brings a cold front, not ruling out snow either, skies look dull with cold mists and fogs likely to coast and valleys, showers can be intermittent and drizzly the skies are much better before sunrise so get up early to see them!
5th Some sun attempts by morning, accompanied by quick hail and sleet showers, sporadic and localised, unsettled conditions with occ sun spells.
6th The next few days brings in some haze, variable winds, some dull cloudy weather from 6th, but some sun spells, 7th will be cloudier later with poor visibility trends, could be more drizzles overnight to next day 8th is calm but humid and mists from overnight, easterlies shows some muggy conditions around but a bright promise around 6-9 am
9th can see some sun around mid day a risk of short sharp showers around sunset and more easterlies keeping things a bit dull
10th Generally fair but a risk of showers again by evening.

10th-17th November

This is when temps come to be extremely wintery with icy cold conditions and freezing over likely. Generally fair conditions at the first few days between mists and showery outbursts

10th Some windy weather from the outset with easterlies gusting around mid day, but this gives way to calmer conditions later at night. Sporadic hail and sleet showers expected from around midnight to early 1 am on 10th onwards. freezing fogs likely late at night towards 11th so take care on the roads.
11th Rain and showery conditions moving to east of us, some southerlies around but mild, and more freezing fogs by evening.
12th Some cloud with sunny spells during the day
13th Cool with sun spells from sunrise onwards should be a nice by the afternoon but some clouds and mists to valleys expected by evening.
14th Hail and sleet can burst out but not be long lived otherwise some fair trned operating
15th Today brings a very noticeable cold low into play when we could see water begin to freeze over. Icy cold showers could break out late evening and there is some potential for sleet if not snow storms with higher elevations affected, but this cold front is going to be very chilling.

16th-17th Cloudy some gentle breezy conditions about, cloudier to northern parts, fairer to the south but chilly, some warmth from sun during mid day on 17th.

17th-25th November

This phase shows extremes of temp lowering to very icy with the big freeze coming over. By 20th we could see some cold air descending to meet iciness producing some wind emergencies down in the Midlands, and the west
could also see some action from westerlies veering north to try and clear everything up a bit.

East Anglia, Norfolk regions look very cold too, so does NW of Scotland where temps are very low the SW England and NE Scotland also look in line to get snowfall by 17/18th……….

17th-18th Looks windy to the east of us, temps nippy, frost on the ground likely with potential for sleet and winter showers giving a show of white cover. Some sun could be around to keep things cheerful, with evening skies being clearer but creating cold conditions due to no or little cloud cover.

19th-20th Some rising temps during the day with sunshine trying to gain control, but hail and sleet flurries look set to come over from the east for us, heavier to the eastern parts, heavier for us on 20th and to southern shores.
Today -20th-brings in the winds I mentioned above , these can be gusty, the Midlands and Scotland look worse hit by these, nippy, keeping things very cutting, temps very icy out of the daytime sunshine. I’m not ruling out sleet hail and snow blizzards with this wind, creating a bit of a news headline.
21st Icy showers arrive today possibly by lunchtime, some sun spells with cloud and some south-easterly air flows keeping things muggy during the day.
22nd is very unsettled with south westerlies around, could be a rough ride weather wise if not an all weather day when we get rain, hail sleets snow and sun till the weather decides what it is going to do. These outbursts will be very localised and intermittent through the day.
23rd Cloudy but fairer potential for snowfall also or sleet and hail creating fogs and mists by late afternoon due to high humidity and by 24th little to no or nebulous winds growing cloudier by evening with an intensely cold low front moving in heralding dull leaden skies and moving eastwards today and on 25th when easterlies make things gloomier Bbbbrrrrrrr……..

This post is also repeated on http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com
Reports on accuracy of weekly outcomes will be resumed at a later stage. Read previous postings on weekly feedback of previous seasons to get a measure of accuracy which is often 80-90% and for many weeks in a season it can be 100% using the same methods our ancient forecasters used to forecast weather using ancient satellite technology.