WINTER WEATHER W YORKS N YONDER 2016

Winter 2016

The lookout at this stage of the year end of 2015, time of finalising the forecast, doesn’t look good for the NW and Cumbrian regions where mists, very high humidity and floods may still be causing a damp and chilly surround.

The year starts Wet Wet Wet and looks set to continue the trend along with auguring some lower temps for the rest of the year to
come………camping may become a thing of the past…..for few years at least.

16th-24th Jan is a very eventful phase with headlines of EQ, pollution and mud/land/snow slides. Beginning of February is a bit challenging, but 10th Feb is great for outdoor pursuits.

22nd Feb-1st March look more settled with the planet Jupiter warding off any nasties out in the Mid Atlantic.

9th March onwards is a phase to watch for due to a return to conditions seen 3rd Dec onwards when weather wars broke out fostering many floods. While circa 6th March is very EQ sensitive.

This reminds me of old interpretations of ancient books that morphed into ”and prehistoric man worshipped their gods” …..errr……..of course enlightened people without prejudice or hidden agendas know the correct translation is ”they studied the planets. ”Astro mets use the ancient science of satellite technology to produce their forecasts long range, as done since Paleolithic times on antler bone, and highly honed in Sumerian and Babylonian times, then by Kepler and subsequently by intelligent long range forecasters such as McCormack and Pearce.

 

2nd-9th Jan

The final throes of 2015 will have seen roads with the usual rivulets forming in dips, drains and culverts yet again belching under the strain, and brolly and raincoat sales rising.

The first half of this phase has some strong but variable winds around but also mists and mizzles to add to the mix.

2nd Sees temps trying to get milder but breeziness offers wind chills. Mists and mizzles around with fogs, thicker mists to the west of the region, cloud around once the mists clear away
Mid morning seems to be slightly clearer but some showery outbursts arrive by 4pm into evening with sudden winter showers, sleet and hail. Mists may turn foggy if you are travelling beware. This trend continues into early 3rd

3rd-5th brings in some spurts of whipping gusts and more lusty showery outbursts into the evening with a gloominess beginning to roll into cloudier skies. Sporadic Gustiness increases on 4th and it is the 6th when this dies down. The north is much cloudier than the south of England and some stormy turbulence likely for northern UK over next few days.

6th-7th is less unsettled though some breeziness prevails. Showers follow early mistiness, mid day on 6th, temps seasonally mild leading to gloomy outlook on 7th and sudden lowering of temps high in atmosphere for frost even snow on very high ground, some sloughing downhill into valleys.
8th-9th clearer skies around 2am on 8th wont prevail, giving way to some easterly flows after mid day, bring in chilly damp conditions promising winter showers of rain turning to sleet and snow, very heavy to far west and north and in Dales, and on high ground such as Pennines so take care on the roads, snow will also expected in W Yorks.

 

10th-16th January

10th could see strong winds off W Ireland coastline but these are travelling westwards, and on 14-16th Jan this system is also operative.
Snow could still be covering some ground around W Yorks and yonder from the outset, but with temps getting colder it can turn frosty and icy as the days march onwards.
Some variable conditions but it does look like we get a few good days 15-16th while a storm is brewing out to sea.

10th Mists/mizzles clear by 8am onwards, some blue skies with cloud developing in mid pm, but remaining fair into the evening with any rain arriving to NW regions around 10pm, travelling east.

11th Similar to 10th though some precipitation potential mid morning, breezes wafting residue showers around, cloudier by mid pm, flurries expected as clouds that bring them form.

12th Sporadic hail and sleet from midnight intermittent into early morning, cooling temps and flurries on high ground keeping things cool, more sporadic outbursts/flurries during evening towards late at night. Rainier to NW regions from around 10pm. Winds stronger on high ground.

13th Clouds/ mists in valleys to start the day, which turns duller by mid morning with potential mizzles mid-day. Snow on high ground could drift down on wind but overnight looks clearer for better overnight conditions.

14th Any precipitation seems easterly of our region, some ghoulish winds haunt chimneys and alleyways, cloudy but fair day expected generally.

15th Storm breeding will be headlining today for areas out to sea. Inland looks gloomy with short sharp cutting showery outbursts from 1am onwards. Today and tomorrow should see some finer weather to enjoy with gradually clearer skies and undecided but strong northerlies trying to see off some of the gloomier weather.

16th May bring some sporadic intermittent fast and furious showers, mingling with winds, with frost to high ground early morning, and possibly lingering during the day, along with cooling temps and mists to valleys overnight as cloud grows thicker. Expect colder winter temps from now on.

 

16th-24th January

There are three major events for this phase. One is land/snow slides, the other is seismic affecting our region but also longitude from Brighton through Grimsby and northwards, 20th-22nd, my money is on 22nd, and the other is air and land pollution from the onset arising from widely fluctuating weather extremes and drilling activities–gas and deep cavernous rock minerals are likely to be actively triggered causing hazardous events.

Communication lines will also be at risk as well as transport routes where ice, blizzards and harsh weather breaks out.

Landslides expected to Komi, ASSR, Russian federation area 17th-19th, some seismicity affecting the area too.

Air pollution coming in from the east is highly likely to impact on health in W Yorks region.

16th As above some westerly battles with gloomy easterlies. Clear cool and crisp outlook.

17th Snow flurries likely around 6-8 am, mid day and evening; winter showers heavy to NW with rain sleet or snow in the mix, and travelling our way possibly overnight into 18th. NW Scotland could be seeing unsettled weather for seagoing.

18th A mixed bag will create problems with milder low lying currents overlaid with colder higher air strata, so in valleys expect milder temps but on high you will feel the cold coming in, and frostiness. This is a combination of freeze and thaw meeting and sudden thawing to soil can create slide hazards, snow or mudslides on mountains and moors, Pennines and cliffs. It all depends on altitude of regions affected.
Conditions established today also affect gases and other minerals underground.

18th into 19th Erratic winds NE and SE circulate with routes affect by blizzards and either rapidly thawing or rapidly freezing surfaces. Communication and power lines in Eastern areas can also be affected as blizzards begin to take hold.

20th Is very icy with blizzards continuing on high routes and to the north UK affecting comms mostly and exposed transport routes, but some sunshine may break through the mix up, the sun laughing at earthling folly! Ozone rich atmosphere operative today.

21st, Mists mizzles and gloominess freezing fogs at start of day, with spurts of icy hail and winds driving in sleet and sporadic winter outbursts till after midnight tonight. Today sees temps dropping low brining an icy cold day.

22nd Is when I expect seismic offerings so will be tracking where the EQ affects UK landmasses. Air and land pollution high today, so take care when out and about. Heavy winter showers expected to fall across mainland UK take care if travelling or check your air or train availability due to disruption over past few days.

23rd Freezing mists and fogs in high places, but less wind and more settled outlook ahead, with temps levelling out from icy, icy temps. Some clearer skies to help us feel less assaulted by weather dramas.

24th Jan – 1st Feb

Very cold, frosty time ahead, some icing on exposed watery places, but temps will get milder as this phase progresses. Some dry days with sunshine around, clearer evening skies keeping things cool, unless otherwise forecast.

Likely days for winter showers are 25th around 6-8pm when showers with sleet and snow and hail can race around. 28th sees a fair start with snow flurries around mid afternoon but 31st looks like being the worst day for rain stopping play but this looks like happening late evening around 9-11pm, and could continue into early next day.

Winds more settled, less blustery till 27th when they get gusty but a good day for drying out anything that got drenched.
EQ aftershocks may reverberate around S E seaboard US 25th or 30th Jan likely dates. The butterfly effect, cause damage in one part of the globe and see it affect another part………………………..

Mists, high humidity and cold damp air, though less cold by 30th when southerlies bring in some promise of more weather battles to come.

31st seems to potentially bring in more blizzards.

1st -8th Feb
The stormy nature continues but temps eventually less cutting by 6th. EQ potential again 2+ or – 4th, haven’t time to see where this is likely to be…east of UK suspect longitude 25 E

1st-2nd is full of blizzards intense from midnight to mid day with power lines and air traffic affected. the system begins off NW sea areas of Scotland and slowly moves SE over next 2-3 days eventually fizzling out to East sea regions Gales to high spots affect air travel and routes and comms. Gusty spurts lashing any prominent landmark. Worst of weather should ease after mid day 1st, but start up again early morning to mid day on 2nd, which will be a very unsettled outlook with winds of gusts at varying speeds, bringing in rain sleet and snow to high ground. Temps cold to freezing depending how exposed you are. Winds dying down on 2nd but evening could see potential residual precipitation.

3rd Low temps prevails, some cloud and sunshine, breezy. Cloud thickens by evening with potential for sporadic isolated sharp showers.

4th Weather systems move quickly eastwards so varying cloud, sunshine, fair and not so fair scurrying along. Some blue skies to enjoy with sunshine in the mix. Overnight into 5th could see some static outbursts.

5th Chilly start, gusty again, erratic sudden spurts, some static lightening may also arrive in the morning, with sleet or hail outbursts, mostly localised in micros.

6th-8th Northerlies are active now trying to clear the weather away some spits or spots around blowing in the wind but generally a fair outlook expected. 7th more likely to see more winter flurries arrive before mid day with snow in the mix, snow settling on residual frost likely. Winds can be active but not so strong as earlier in the phase.

 

8th-15th February

Winds are less active though any breeziness will contain a chilly feel. Northerlies are moving westwards warding off some of the worst of the weather out in mid Atlantic and iciness attempting to come down from Iceland, so we can expect some fairer weather to generally prevail. If you’re organising outdoor pursuits the 10th is a fantastic day to put in your diary—pay me later…

8th Sun with cloud expected during daytime. temps colding (yes I know its not in the dictionary)

9th is cool and fair with varying cloud but heavy winter showers expected to the west around10-11pm

10th Could see the heavy overnight winter shower coming over our region before the day breaks out into refreshing and fine outdoor atmospherics. Wind chills but exhilarating, very pleasant.

11th temps seasonally mild should still be fair conditions generally.

12th Cold temps with occasional isolated sporadic short sharp showers pm and late evening

13th A chill factor and a little bit clammy with mists and likely breezes could turn windy with aloft air chill factor.

14th This looks like either snow or sleet around in our region from early am not sure, sorry…might even be mists lingering but with humidity around during the daytime.

15th ongoing……………….

15th-22nd Feb

This phase sees temps growing colder to frosty but mostly uneventful headline weather wise. 15th-17th mainly dry some clouds around and southerly flows, so any precip forecast is expected to be light.

15th early am could see sleet and rainy spells heavy to the west snow in the mix at the start of day slowly travelling our way, skies clearer by 4-6pm but chilly conditions moving in late evening

16th showery before sunrise mists and mizzles potential some cloud around but mostly dry during the day.

17th similar outlook to yesterday though snow bearing clouds look to get heavily laden

18th breezy chills frosts but some blue sky with sunshine around, fairer southwards cloudier to north with southerly flows

19th Fair but nippy outlook mists and fogs to valleys and low lying roads by late pm and overnight, freeze fogs potential

20th Looks like blue skies around with sunshine but little warmth freeze fogs by evening again.

21st similar weather as previous days some static hard hitting showery stuff circa 7pm

22nd I expect sleet snow and rain to arrive and move across many regions of the UK today, potentially southwards around break of day but moving around. W Yorks looks like being hit circa 8pm Mod to heavy precip expected.

22nd Feb-1st March

The worst of the weather stays in the Mid Atlantic for a while longer and this looks like being mild, with 28th unusually so for the season.

22nd as above with 23rd less likely to bring rain.

Without delivering a blow by blow account, I expect seasonally calmer trends with little precipitation or disturbance. Some cloud around but also some sunshine. 24th looks a little lively with gusty weather 25th is fair for the north with fast moving weather taking any rain threats away, 26th is blustery with erratic gusts, but mild temps, 27th is cool but clearer skies, varying winds with cloud scurrying along, thickening later into potential misty conditions near valleys and low lying routes.
28th will see mists and fogs in the evening and sun could find it hard to break through haziness during the day which will have very mild temps for a winter season.

29th still some mistiness and fogs but greater expectation of them clearing during the day

1st Cool fair weather could be disturbed after mid day by showers

1st-9th March

Seismic intensity magnifies around equatorial regions of Indonesia or of equatorial region of South America for this phase. 2nd -6th March above 5 mag expected.

Some mists, fogs or snow could be to the west of us but the outlook is eerily calmer than expected for this time of year, unless I missed something major….the calm before the storm perhaps however, here goes

1st is cool fine and fair some cloud around but nothing to worry about, and late evening skies look very clear indeed pehaps inviting frosts to form and mists.

2nd is similar to 1st but potential for showery outbursts around mid day, sudden sporadic and intermittent spells.
3rd Looks like a very nice day with a clear atmosphere for those with a camera

4th-5th again nice outside but some blustery whippy gusts beginning to get active

6th is disturbed and a little unsettled but by mid day again things should look good.

7th sees winter hail sleet and snow coming over, may be heavy at times, heavier to the west but travelling our way too arriving potentially circa 9 am

8th full of mists and fogs or haze so it will be hard for the sun to get through…could be mingled with some pollutants as well

9th-15th March

This looks like weather Armageddon when the weather shows us who is in charge, and it isn’t flood defences or other man made attempts to rule the globe! Weather alerts galore expected. Cyclone breeding off NE coast South America adding to turbulent Spring Tides expected to bring dangers to sea off Northern coast of Scotland and Orkneys breeding gales, within first few days, travelling to SE Scotland into North England and downwards .

Similar conditions to first week in December 2015 are set to break out. I often hope I get predictions like this wrong, so here’s hoping I am.

Blizzard territory likely to break out this phase….

This is a total solar eclipse with perigee Moon on 10th, so we expect some wild and extreme weather to come and continue. In December the world watched as floods broke through defences in Cumbria and many parts of the UK were assaulted by torrential rain, gales and landslides in Altura in the Highlands and at Ullswater, with gales across Wales and western parts to add to the spectacle.

Severely disturbed atmospherics continue, with record breaking outbursts expected, Lowestoft/E Anglia region singled out for
headlines–possible air and travel and sea disruptions but could also be lightening strikes, along with other parts of the UK seeing action hitting headlines.

The equinox isn’t far away and usually the heat of Australian summers get dragged up to clash with the cold of our winter breeding Spring in it’s wake. Spring with noisy labour pains.

Temps can be metal bending cold in high regions and as this crystallises it will drop down to meet the warm air travelling northward, often this results in tornadic breakouts circa 11th for W Midlands and circa 13th to some valleys as cold air falls downslope.

A quick tour of the drama begins with unsettled outlook for 9th-10th, showery outburst expected, but some fair weather possible during the day, though to the west there will already be signs of winter showers. Static outbursts expected
10th-11th The worst of the weather comes overnight 10-11th and looks set to migrate around the UK with record levels of precipitation as well as flash floods breaking out as the sleet, snow and rain circulates, W Yorks in the firing line for this event, as well as other regions. Fogs and mists highly likely near sea and valleys and watery areas.

Rivers and other watering places in low lying valleys expected to flood plains and beyond, so collect your cattle, and keep vulnerable creatures and people safe over next few days as well.

12th looks set to bring in some breezes with some milder outlook but humidity high with more wintery outbursts potential sleet/hail during the evening.

13th-15th Some isolated narrow storms travel through valleys with tornado potential to Midlands, air transport affected as well as high routes across Pennines and traffic on bridges over estuaries, as scattered electrical storms move around. There could also be news of more mudslides. Precipitation expected overnight 14-15th when mugginess and mists and cloudy conditions prevail.

Very strong northerlies around by 15th trying to clear away the mess King Weather has ruled us with. Tendency for cold miserable bouts of sleet, hail, snow and rain with valley areas feeling the brunt of high levels of accumulation……..

Rivers and other watering places in low lying valleys expected to flood plains and beyond, so collect your cattle, and keep vulnerable creatures and people safe

15th -20th March
More furies to contend with as a stormy outbursts hits from the West to NE GB, gale force winds arise strong and northerly, seagoing affected and major routes and air travel disturbed by this trend. More heavy precipitation coming in as the northerlies, often high speed and fierce, try seeing off the stormy weather. Western parts most hit with disruption to air, sea land, rail. Gales around from 15th, hurricane likely to rage in from the sea—-destructive by 16/17th., 18th might be more settled but not for long while 19th is very cold and windy with northerly chill.

The Equinox is early on 20th disturbing conditions further and sudden falls in temps partner a cold front descending from the north with sudden abundant rains to watering places in valleys overstretching capacity in rivers, on roads and low lying pathways and routes…….mass floods heralded.

Spring arrives with a grand entrance letting everyone know hell hath no fury like a global climate on the attack

 

Time to think of those wonderful summer days ahead…………..

AUTUMN 2015 Long Range Weather West Yorks N Yonder

Autumn Weather 2015.

Using satellite technology, all astro mets are able to see further ahead than traditional met methods allow, and use ancient satellite technology tried and tested for thousands of years.

I forecast for W Yorks N Yonder to make sure I can monitor my success rate as met forecasts often are different to what the outcome is.

Because micro weather patterns often circulate, such as mists, mizzles to valleys as Addingham, Ilkley and Otley, while hail and sleet can also travel micro style, as do some static showers, it takes too long to track them and would make the weather report too unwieldy to read, so if the forecast is for dry but over the road from you there is a shower or mist, this is the reason why.

10th-20th Oct looks stormy with flash floods likely, and Christmas could see high levels of precipitation with threat of floods for the season for some regions.

 

       Sept 21st-28th
Many changes as equinox arrives 23rd September with shifting planetary positions and move to closest perigee Moon 2015, adversely affecting the weather. Flash floods expected to headline to locations 24 east longitude of Britain. Rains will be heavy to East Britain around 26th, with 25th beginning the breeding of stormy outbursts to low lying areas in west regions; Ireland vulnerable to these, but they will travel over our way before moving eastwards. Expect choppy seas growing wilder over coming days with high tides causing probs on coastlines with mists n mizzles more likely to eastern shores.

 

14th-16th September sees more afflictions to East Asia regions such as China, Taiwan/Japan areas.

21st Sun with cloud, temps low to mod for season, some NE breezes, and any rainy outbursts will be further out to western regions of W Yorks.
22nd Clearer skies promising a fair day around sunrise but sporadic showers expected to come in as day progresses, heavier to west. Unsettled by late eve along with localised static outbursts to our region and yonder.
23rd Very unsettled today as the Sun moves into the southern hemisphere, with temps variable but some blue skies around and cool with much colder conditions to high or exposed places such as the Chevin, moors and highlands. Sudden sporadic micro hail or sleet showers can move around but wont be long lasting from 7-8 am and intermittently t/out the day and into next morning.

24th More rainy outbursts expected combined with northerlies trying to clear away the unsettled weather of previous days.

25th -26th Gusty westerlies around with a bright start 25th combining with gusty westerlies, but some stormy outcomes breeding to low lying areas indicating more unsettled weather, with very heavy rains forming flash floods expected further eastwards as referred to above, East Anglia may also see heavy rains. Mists, mizzles fogs and drizzles to eastern Brit generally.
27th A faster moving weather system begins to flow with warmer temps today but mugginess, could be misty start, cloud around and humidity. NE speedy winds arrive today

28th Sept-4th Oct
Temps begin to climb this phase peaking around 3rd. Expect clearer overnight skies generally, but some mugginess and clouds delivers mists and high humidity with clouds preventing sun shining fully during the day. The East coast of Britain gets the highs of the season, so book now to make the most of what looks like a mini Indian Summer coming in….

Some of the disturbances of previous week still operate and in W Yorks and Yonder there will be still some electrical outbursts with power lines affected, more fires to buildings could be in news.

28th Some warmth but also static outbursts. Winds strong NW with high areas more vulnerable to these speedy outbursts.

29th-4th looks likely to have showery outbursts due to rising temps, so humidity is high but rains can be refreshing. Winds die out after 30th.
1st Can be calm, misty, muggy in areas such as Addingham, Ilkley and other valleys, but higher ground should show a clearer outlook. A sultrier outcome prevails to southern Britain where mists and mizzles due to higher temps will be found. Around 2–5 am some mists and mizzles with cloud around to many Brit areas, but clearing for a better evening later in the day.
2nd-4th Windy/breezy with clearer skies indicating sunshine and warmth from sun and seasonal highs. Could be some sea disturbances NW Scotland region 1st-2nd so watch out for ocean news if you are a seabird.

4th Oct-13th Oct
Unusual Autumnal weather circulating and I had to look further than W Yorks and yonder to see what is going on and how it will break over our region as it travels. no guarantees due to some conflicting patterns making it difficult to see which would prevail.

Some sea disturbances moving around SE Anglia, Kent regions will create hazards for sea goers around 5-7th….but 6th is most likely day for culmination. Fruits and flowers affected by either drought for some regions, and humidity for others mould breeding conditions seem widespread.
Fogs mists and mizzles prevail more to eastern quarters, with some mini thundery showers circulating t/out this phase due to static build up as rising warmth hits falling lows.

4th Scattered showery outburst attempts from 6-10 am, with temps warming mod to high seasonal temps but causing static outbursts of hail and sleet by the evening rush hour.
5th Drier sun with cloud.
6th-7th A lot going on today with semi tropical lows off-shore East Anglia/Kent coastal regions migrating north-eastwards towards northern Midlands and further westwards during next few days. Troubled waters off-shore expected so check seagoing services.
Expect clouds to W Yorks and yonder as this humidity rises north, but fairer outcomes to our region than these southern parts. Further west of us on 6th another system shows some static creeps in around mid day and with an easterly wind/weather pattern we get some muggy atmospherics to contend with Some rain could break out but is more likely in southern GB and western areas.
By 7th Some mini cloudburst expected mostly in valleys where haziness is likely to prevail around watery places. Static, hazy and humid fungal, breeding weather travelling from S E towards NW regions.
8th-9th Cloud, mists mizzly, sultry and still but also foggy breakouts affecting traffic flow by rush hour after work, so visibility not clear. This looks like a damp wet and muggy day with southerly air flows keeping things muggy.
10th cooler temps around with clearer skies trying to break out some gusty breezes or winds helping move clouds away but this could be a day when thundery outbreaks arise, more evident to eastern parts.
11th Rain, sleet clouds and easterlies keeping things overcast, damp conditions if not heavy rain, fogs and mists to coast and inland valleys. It is fairer much further north from 10th-13th and we benefit too fairing better than southern regions, but with news of snow on mountains of Scotland not out of the question.
12th Looks cold overcast, gloomy and bleak with more lightening/ thundery outbursts….clearer better even sunnier outlook by evening around sunset…but read on will double check this…

12th-20th Oct
An exceedingly excitable weather phase with violent and intense electrical t/storms with lightening strikes, strong winds and floods expected, causing travel chaos and some damage to transport routes including M 62 and M1 and roads adjoining and city wide. Here is a quick tour rather than a detailed analysis……this is a very spectacular, dramatic and awesome weather phase. Normally a new moon brings rain from evenings into the night and at the outset this is the case, but with such strong celestial combinations it could be overruled and due to so much going on it would take too much space to record every detail of it.

12th-13th sees a taste of stormy outbursts stronger to western extremities i.e. Cornwall, Wales, NW Scotland and centring on Irish Sea. Ireland gets rising temps while mainland GB and W Yorks and yonder gets clearer skies but lower temps and we will hear of hail, sleet even snow to high ground. N Westerlies become strong and powerful during this phase. Winds will be howling around too.

13th-15th fairer days with 13th showing last pitch of rainy outbursts 6-8 am likely to finish off outpourings coming in from 12th with a fairer day to follow. Temps will be cold but skies will be clear and blue but winds will be strong and blustery blowing off your hat. Some quick showery outbursts intermittent, but mostly blue skies in between. 14th should be drier and more reasonable weather although a few scattered showers may break out, but by 15th strong winds continue with rising temps to west and t/storms can cause problems to transport routes.

16th More cracking electrical outbursts and there will be high amounts of speedy rainfall potentially creating floods to routes and places near rivers and lakes. Flash floods more likely further to western areas as we see heavy rain moving eastwards too. For us there should be some warmth and clearing occasionally to bluer skies with sunny spells alternating with sudden hail or sleet. Do prepare for the worst even if the skies seem to promise the best when you set off as these systems are speedy and can catch up with you with little warning.

17th Flood problems still trouble western regions where fogs and mists create low visibility, we may have fairer weather but the NW winds can soon scatter rogue showers around intermittently.
18th Storms still circulating with NW very strong it will be 19th before this drama of cracking static weather passes on leaving some destruction in its wake.

20th-27th Oct
At last a calm after the stormy outbursts of Autumn of the last few weeks. Some sunshine and good outdoors weather to come.

Temps are cooler but at least accompanied by calmer weather. Frosts likely but we will see some sunshine along the way.
20th-21st Some cloud around but a calmer autumn outlook with sunshine once mists clear, mini sporadic outbursts likely to 21st but this wont spoil outdoor events.

22nd Some gusty spurts around cheeky at times with cold frosts to keep you on your toes.

23rd Could see some precipitation, intermittent by late afternoon, cloud, mists and some unsettled weather but fair weather should prevail during the day.

24th Cold and cutting with gusty NW breezes/winds…this looks hazardous out to seas to Eastern regions. Frosts highly likely to form.

25th Looks like another good days for outdoors with fresh atmosphere, but very cold, though exhilarating. Some NW to nip your exposed extremities too.

26th Sporadic hail and sleet showery stuff around with gusty breezes turning windy and keeping things cold feeling wintery. Frosts also likely.
27th Very strong windy weather today likely to turn into gales to NW and on high ground..

27th Oct-3rd Nov
Strong winds and gales continue for the first two days of this phase, blustery weather as temps decline steadily. This is when we glimpse winter ahead.
Clearer skies at night allow temps to fall but this will please sky gazers.
It will be mountains, Pennines and moors that get the worst of some of the blasts blowing over with snow likely on very high ground.

27th-28th Very strong winds around with sudden spurts of speedy velocity, cold and cutting. Winds bring some rain on its wings and by 28th snow on high ground is expected, along with some sleet and strong NW Frost expect late night 28th. Cold, sunshine and cloud and windy weather for these two days with exhilarating fresh air to take your breath away.
29th Still windy but not as wild as previous days. Sunshine after a frosty start some roads could be icy. It seems too cold to allow rain to fall, but beyond W Yorks, to far west may have some outpourings today
30th The day seems sunny with cloud around, could be some freezing mists around valleys and low lying roads near watery areas.
31st Temps peak to coldest but a very bright sunny day expected.
1st-3rd Breezy conditions which can turn into whippy westerlies, frost around, some sunshine with cloud…..but read on for 3rd.

3rd-10th Nov
Indications are of a more settled phase with some gentle showery weather mostly overnight, and coldest temps gradually subsiding as 7th arrives.
3rd Looks to have sunshine and northerlies less active, but still chilly. Rain expected overnight into early 4th, bonfire piles will need to be kept dry if you want a good blaze for bonfire night— a little rain stills a great wind. Cloud and sunshine around for 4th -5th with more cloud expected to cover views of Taurids meteor showers. Cool but dry for 5th.
6th Looks fair by mid day some mists around watery places. Sudden winds spurts or breezy outbursts around today.
7th -10th Temps seasonally milder, with some showery outbursts. Clouds around with sun spells and mists/fogs likely.
11th Brings rain for the evening which will move eastwards overnight.

11th-19th Nov
We miss the weather dramas to be witnessed globally for this phase.
Temps still on seasonally mod to mild range and some fair days ahead until winds begin to be very lively from 15th.

11th can bring some showery outburst mid morning but this should be a fair day with sunshine.
12th Taurids are lively for sky watchers at night and sudden wind spurts will keep clouds moving to give occasional view of the night sky.
13th Northerlies seem strong today but outlook is for fair with fresh atmosphere after a cloudy night.
14th Rain or showers could miss our region, though some tail ends could be blown in by the wind mid morning. Cool with sunshine likely.
15th Some mists and clouds around but the afternoon should be sunny and fine. Windy outdoors
17th-18th Scattered showers likely, intermittent and sporadic turning to hail and sleet showers by 18th. The winds get extra lively for next few days. The Leonids may be difficult to spot with some cloud around.
19th Continuing windy with sun and clouds but also some showery weather later in the day……read on

19th-25th Nov
Not a pleasant outlook at all could turn out stormier than the outlook forecast for some isolated regions. News of landslides highly likely. Regions around John O Groats, Dundee, Gloucester, Cornwall, Blackpool, Keswick, Wigton regions look to encounter the worst of this weather and landslides could affect mountains and coastal areas.

Mists and mugginess can prevail with unsettled weather to come. Risk of high levels of rain from mid afternoon 19th creating isolated flash floods and very damp humid atmosphere.. Damp and oppressive weather around, not good for planning outdoor activities.
The 20th is unsettled with rains continuing and shows a little sun, with a lot of cloud also some winds racing around taking heavy rains eastwards. 22nd will see mini whirlwinds to some localities.
Excess cloud around and temps lowering again after 21st with potential for ice to form. Snow for mountains and Pennines peaks by 23rd when winds get wild and nasty, with cold, frosty outlook for us 23rd/ 24th onwards. 25th Continues the dark, dull gloomy weather with hazes, mists and fogs around and variable winds battling it out in sudden spurts.

25th Nov 2nd Dec
This phase should see an eventual turnaround on previous gloomy wet damp conditions. Temps get much colder and bring frost over, some iciness expected and it looks too cold to rain though some sporadic hail or sleet could affect isolated locales. Weather settles into cold frosty and less agitated by 27th for a few days and by 1st December it is looking very wintery.
Winds turning northerly to clear away the bad and bring in more settled outlook but will be chilly. 25th-29th has clearer calmer weather with sunshine, overnight frosts expected. 30th holds potential for showers around London areas, and 2nd could bring some winter showers to our regions.

3rd-11th December
Weather system flowing in from the East could be making headlines, as it did 13th 14th August when heavy rains came over from Spain and beyond. Some static conditions mean we can expect a few sleet and hail outbursts for this phase. Flash floods expected to cause problems to the western areas the general trend is for very heavy precipitation 3rd-5th causing more flash floods circulating to some southern regions too as with 13th/14th August.
This phase will prove extra stormy for Cork, Lewis and Stornaway with snow for Glencoe expected and a little turbulent for us too.

Some precipitation potential lingers to the west threatening to travel here to dampen our parade early morning on 3rd but we should see some sunshine breaking out in the afternoon with clearer skies by eve.
4th brings in some invigorating trends with blue skies and sunshine but winter temps leave an intense chill.
5th A little unsettled today and a mix of precipitation potential so winter outbursts likely with snow, sleet and hail in the mix, and some nippy breeziness to contend with.
6th Onwards continues chilly but less likelihood of showery outbursts, although 7th could see winter outbursts to eastern parts after sunrise. 8th sees northerlies active while 9th and 10th is cold but with sunshine around and some blue skies mid afternoon could bring some winter outburst around mid afternoon both days some sleet and snow expected.
11th Is when static brings down more cutting rain, hail, sleet and snow

The last three days will see likelihood of higher levels of winter showers crossing Gloucester, John o Groat’s regions.

11th-18th Dec
Gusty wind patterns for this phase but these can send clouds scurrying along and help dry out any winter precipitation.
11th sees some strong hail and sleet showers with gusts of NW. Air travel could be disrupted around these days, especially for those going to Iceland to see Santa, make sure your travel is insured. Disruptive weather mid Atlantic will interfere with journeys crossing them. Mists and fogs potential for early morning today and 12th, with some regions of UK seeing snow and sleet attempts.

13th-16th NW gusty weather, some haze, mist and cloud but with temps on the seasonally mod to mild side these won’t be freezing mists. Some showery outbursts around 8-10 pm on 13th, and evening to sunrise from 14th-15th with sunshine and cloud during the day. 16th continues the scattered showers theme but these will not be long lasting, though will cause mists to valleys.
17th Cloudy and misty start looks likely to be more cloud than sun today, Rain could be heavy over to far west regions
18th Doesn’t look healthy….read on

18th-25th December
Temps move towards very cold and wintery, turning to frosty by the last few days, with some bleak weather around for Christmas shopping.
The West coastal regions get covered in fogs mists and mizzles around the winter solstice on 22nd this year when the sun i giving Australia a dose of summer, and bringing us an awareness of how gloomy winter can be.

18th Winds with rain, scattered showery outlook rain could be heavy and NE Scotland looks likely to feel the heavy rains expected, some flash floods likely, but W Yorks seems to avoid these as fast moving weather systems move up from the south.
19th Cold temps with southerly systems active. Could turn frosty and snow to high ground highly evident. Air will be crisp and light snow, sleet and wintery outbursts continue from yesterday, some sunshine with cloud gathering gloomy during the day.
20th Could be muggy with some gusty weather at times very cold outlook but sun with cloud mid day, cloud more likely to northern parts and some of W Yorks, fairer weather to south.
21st Strong winds, spasmodically gusty and speedy at times look set to strike today and looks like blizzards herald the solstice. I expect hail, sleet and snow storms to develop as unsettled weather breaks out for 21st-22nd. Freezing fogs and mists develop to western coastal regions with some tidal traffic upsets due to low visibility/choppy seas. Expect transport routes to be affected, air travel included. Some fairer outlook trying to break out by pm on 22nd, but it will develop icily on high terrain by evening and overnight. Bleak weather for these two days.
23rd Outlook gloomy at times. Colder but less wild, sunshine with cloud by mid day with some northerlies trying to battle away the S Easterlies.
24th Fairer start and sunshine looks likely to prevail with occasional gusty breezes/winds fair to mod in strength, but some mists are likely, also some winter showers coming over W Yorks after mid day. This system is travelling eastwards on a very cold day and will affect eastern regions by 25th.
25th Happily the Northerlies are active today and these always clear away the bad weather–eventually. Wintery showers could greet the day around sunrise.
Full Moon Christmas Day indicates cold, frosty weather in winter. Mists break out, with some drizzles and mizzles to lowlands from Devon to East coast of Yorkshire.
The next few days will be very settled for W Yorks with clear evening skies but lots of frost around. However, the SE regions i.e East Anglia don’t seem to fare so well and some localised flash flooding may cause problems there and other southern regions, heavy precipitation expected.

I don’t see snow for us on 25th, but Boxing Day does show frost, potentially snowfall or sleet and hail by late evening, depending on how high your location is.

New Years day looks a better bet weather wise with a fair outlook for those going to the races.

UK WEATHER BRIEF SPRING 2015: Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder

Best dog ever

First of all apologies to those people who have signed up for regular reading, life and the universe had other plans for recent seasons.
I can’t promise normal service resumed, but promise I will make every effort to do so as it would be reckless to ignore years of skill developed by using astrology to forecast weather.

I can’t promise 90%-100% accuracy for this forecast as I know for sure I abandoned looking at the wind charts settling instead for expedience and using indicators in the other charts instead. I do expect 60%-80% and for sure some weeks may even move towards being 100% accurate, and I do hope this will be the June part of the forecast which will bring in some fine weather if not a flaming June living up to normal expectations.

Spring Weather 2015

The New Moon on 20th March reached perigee on 19th so is not quite a massive headline supermoon but will bring some unsettled weather as this is also the day of the equinox, and the sun rising into the northern hemisphere along with the moon we will see some fast moving weather systems, so don’t expect sunshine or rain to stay around for long. However, this perigee is quite long lasting as some of my weather buddy friends point out (noteably the ever watchful Ken Paone) and Robert Nolle calls it a ‘stealth supermoon’ due to it forming an eclipse while perigee lasts from 13th-27th March capturing the equinoctial phase.

Not only that NM being at the end of one sign and ready to move into another we can expect trends to vary quite dramatically from the outset. The last time we had a New Moon at this stage of motion heralding Spring, was 1996, however this wasn’t eclipsed. I failed to find any records of weather drama for the UK, which is not to say there wasn’t; just that most websites I searched had headlines for other months and years than this. I do expect some spring tides to be wary of at coastal places, with sea frets and mists more to the east coast, but if you like the spectacle of sea horses and crashing waves the coast is where you need to be for this these few days. An eclipse can often nullify expected outcomes, whilst a perigee Moon can often exaggerate them, whilst a planet moving from water to a fire sign can often bring spectacular results all on its ownsome. Certainly the Sun cuspal for the equinox on 20th will bring in some static atmospheric turbulence and with the Moon in tow this indicates mists and fogs.

I’ll be watching the eastern central Philippine area to see if a hurricane arrives there around 20th-21st, but it will be fast moving and short-lived.

Here is a brief tour only:

 

20th-27th March

20th Very unsettled with one weather system soon replacing another in quick succession: cloudier if not gloomy to some areas by evening, and some nebulous wind flow.
21st Wetness seems to stay to the west of us, though some may blow over to parts of W Yorks, with some hail and sleet showers rapidly arising then stopping suddenly as it began, more likely to south of England, but in fast moving pockets. Usually weather like is accompanied with sunshine, but this can soon be overtaken by cloud as well so any sun spells may not be long lasting. 8-10pm could also see more outbursts as described. Some cold whippy northerlies and westerlies could be attempting to clear way the unsettled weather from today.
22nd Clouds around, humidity hints at warmer temps, clouds and mist by late evening.
23rd Some warmth could break out today but humidity rules so misty pockets could spoil visibility, especially at the start of the day (this means at the turn of day around midnight onwards beyond 1am) so take care whilst travelling throughout Yorkshire and beyond….Some cold pockets out of the sun where breezes wind around corners and some cloud around.
24th I expect some showery outbursts today evening the likely time centreing around 3-4pm. Mists and clouds rule especially denser to the east regions, Spring April like showers highly likely so don’t take a sunny spell for granted. Still some warmth around so a heartening trend for gardeners with bulbs enjoying the weather. I also expect some whippy westerlies to be active today, more so to the NW regions.
25th Cooler temps sun with cloud around, micro hail and sleet outbreaks, particularly in the evening, interfere with sunny spells.
26th NW winds in spurts bring in icy temps to high and exposed places, but ensure clouds get blown away faster leaving a promise of sunshine as well……………………but not for long……………………….read on

27th March to 3rd April

Rain over the West will slowly, oh so slowly, beginning to move into West Yorkshire from today and will bring some heavy outbursts which will leave roads flooding as it moves on. I expect parts of Cumbria to be vulnerable to this from the 26th, as well as some places in W Yorks where rivers and lakes and flood plains will be witness to the incoming deluge. Ireland, Wales and Western Isles of Scotland will also take in this system from the outset. The East of use fares slightly better, but rain will travel in their direction by 28th when it is heavier to W Yorks before moving east.

Winds will still be keeping temps cool on high or exposed areas and will be quite brisk and Nor westerly

The 31st sees off the worst of this slow moving system but is still unsettled, while the 1st is calmer in outlook with no surprises weather wise, and the 2nd brings cooler conditions to E Anglia but fairer weather to the north, some easterlies threatening to spoil things again with a bit of gloom and some unsettled winds around, but by evening the sun is beckoning and promises a better day to enjoy for 3rd….enjoy……………..a lovely Spring day at last.

4th — 12th April

Some migrating lightening and t/storms likely making it difficult to positively locate them without taking a long time, but they can be expected during daytime rather than the night. Eastern parts of UK, East Anglia especially will see a lot of this type of weather.

4th potential showery outbursts by mid day with sporadic hail sleet type outbursts in some pockets of W Yorks during mid afternoon, so sunshine in between these outbursts. Eastern UK could see some of these outbursts
5th Rain likely to move down eastern coastal areas, dry to W Yorks but cool, very cool and lots of static around. Some occasional sun spells
6th Thunderstorms look likely mid morning to North, South and Eastern parts of Britain, W Yorks may get some inward moving systems but for us this clears by 1-2pm when sunshine and better weather should break out. North Westerlies strong and active but will hopefully take away the static stormy breakouts.
7th Cool day with some sunshine around but NW winds are strong and cutting, on high ground and coming downslope so watch out when travelling in valleys where wind tunnels can create problems.
8th Cold day with some cloud around , winds are still active keeping things cold but blowing clouds away to leave some gaps with blue sky coming through. Unsettled outlook by evening.
9th Much better outdoor weather today temps can be warmer than previous days
10th Cool but sunny with temps warming up. Winds could prove lively and highly excitable at times.
11th Should be a better Spring day with some warmth around come the 12th ……………………………………

My mum is so going to miss me this time of the year

12th-18th April
A generally fair but blustery phase, overall cool, breezy just about says it all, but there should some sunshine around too with Spring warmth for first few days.
The winds excited on 10th may continue to affect NW regions which could encounter comms and transport probs, while from 12th-14th hail sleet and snow outbreaks to NW Brit regions could see snowfall on highland areas.

12th Cold start; warmth from Sun by mid day and afternoon. Some mists could arise near watery places. Temps rising with southerlies.
13th Warmth around mid day and pm, but this could trigger a quick shower or two mid afternoon scattered and intermittent until before sunrise on 14th. Some mists also due to warmth creating moisture.
14th Some dampness remains but temps mod for season and some sunshine could break out between clouds, with potential for rain after mid day.
15th Cool, breezy and cloud around, easterlies bring in some gloomy conditions, lowering temps.
16th A slow moving weather pattern with clouds around, lower temps but it will be fairer to areas to in North and South Britain. Some gentle southerlies around too.
17th A fairer outlook for today.

18th-25th April

Temps look like being seasonally lower range for us, but down in Aus they could be battling the usual treetop fiery outbursts so watch the weather news for these headlines……

Overall drier weather should prevail until last two days, with some good spring-like days emerging, notably 21st- 22nd when ozone highs should keep everyone happy, so try get outdoors for the spring lift, but wrap up warmly…..

18th Southerly flows, some sunshine to enjoy during the day but by mid night it looks like some scattered stormy outbreaks stop play outdoors.
19th A few micro showers around breakfast time and again by teatime 6pmish but some sunshine in between but remember temps will be lower than usual, though some warmth from the sun at mid day onwards.
20th Should turn into a lovely spring day, a great day for getting sheets dry but watch out for those whippy keen westerlies if you are kite flying or ballooning..
21st The ozone highs arrive so expect a sunny day; cold, if not nippy, but great for outdoors. Northerlies keep things cooler but fresher.
22nd Winds northerly then whippy westerly and pretty speedy by late evening could be lively but at least they keep any clouds from turning things grey……..but
23rd-24th are the days when rain may arrive to spoil things heavier to mid day on 24th when it should subside…temps lower still to that of previous days.

25th April-4th May

The eastern coastal regions look to be enjoying some sea mists due to getting the best of the sunshine from the outset with E Anglia getting what highs of Spring are operating, but it should also be reasonably spring like with sunshine to W Yorks at the start. Temps fresh and moderately Spring like with some improved temps by 27th, but not for long….

25th-26th Sudden air frosts but generally fair, sun with cloud around. Good for photography so get the camera ready
27th Sees better temps slowly arising along with less cloud
28th Some mists or cloudiness bring potential for showery outbursts, here by around 7pm
29th Cooler, sun with cloud and mists to watery areas
30th Fast moving system now, with showery outburst potential before sunrise over next few days, clouds and mist around to western areas so don’t expect too much sunshine to stay around today.
1st –3rd Breezy, cool Westerlies argue with Easterly flows unsettling the atmosphere and allowing for some gloom to slowly develop over next few days. Frosty with intermittent hail or sleet showers in between sun spells leaving it cooler but with sun around by 3rd.

My Favourite Place Friar’s Crag Walk

4th-11th May

This phase doesn’t look good at all. Weather headlines for Cumbria expected, generally most of Britain will not enjoy great conditions. Conflicting weather systems leave things very unsettled from the outset with clouds and winds keeping the sun at bay. Temps stay below normal range until 6th when things can warm up, but this may just trigger mists and mizzles afterwards.

4th Very unsettled outlook develops and prevails over next few days with gloomy easterlies arguing with westerlies, and ain may result, heavy at times.
5th Could see stormy outbursts with NW regions getting the worst of the weather, clearer by evening
6th Better day after a misty cloudy start cool but some blue skies around with breezes keeping temps cool.
7th Some warming of temps today but clouds around, mists develop later in the day near watery places
8th Some rain expected around sunrise, if not continuing sporadically from night before. Cloud around not sure if the sun will get out today.
9th Skies should be clearer temps less harsh but winds variable with intermittent sharp, scattered showers expected along with sun spells
10th Looks like the better weather is on its way………………..read on……….

11th May-18th

Not a very good outlook with some turbulence still operating though East Anglia looks to be the lucky part of the UK with better conditions augured. Temps still staying below seasonal average but the heavy rains look to be behind us for this phase. Less sun to enjoy than we would like, and we’ll be left putting heads down and getting on with it. Still, that’s Spring moving towards a better outlook for June…hopefully….here’s a very brief tour for W Yorks region

11th Could be some scattered showers around, suns spells possible today
12th Mists, gloomy to western parts but westerlies are getting lively today so should help blow some clouds around leaving gaps for sunshine to come through.13th A rather bland spring day for us.
14th More unsettled conditions sun around with humidity developing.
15th Sun with cloud and winds vying with each other again.

18th-25th May
This phase begins with wet weather but refreshing the gloomy atmosphere of previous days. Still some unsettled atmospherics that can interfere with air traffic, but the last few days hold a hint of better days to come. The damp chill of former days might not be so oppressive this phase.
18th showery very early before or around sunrise, clearing by mid day if not mid morning. Northerlies argue with westerlies, expect some wind chills to remind us this is Spring not summer.
19th-20th similar to yesterday but winds get more active and keep things cool, less likelihood of showers breaking out.
21st The weather begins to warm up a little with expectation of sunshine for today.
22nd It will definitely rain today…really it will…watch for 1-2pm
23rd -25th Isolated cloudburst expected potential for news of tornado affecting Midlands as winds may get a bit wilder, rising temps however, breezy, sudden wind spurts but fairer weather slowly breaks out but this means mists can form and it is they that can interfere with flights.

25th May 2nd June
Don’t worry the good weather news comes soon for June, just watch it trying to breakthrough valorously during this phase!
There will be some mists around mainly eastern quarters, but also to valleys as descending cold clashes with arising heat trends, and some lashing westerlies may cause problems by 27th, troubling some to NW Scotland. The south looks to get the fairer weather but this will change by 31st.
Generally a good phase for gardeners to watch their crops thrive on the weather conditions.

25th Stratus clouds dominate the north with hail and sleet likely to sporadically hit pockets to the north, with highlands getting snow. Very cold on high ground with chills lowering temps as they fall leading to some mists forming to valleys, late evening as well. In between showery outbursts some sunshine could be present but these micros are difficult to track-probably valleys such as Ilkley, Addingham will get the mists while Grassington will see fairer weather.
26th A misty start with lots of cloud around clearing by mid day leading to cool but sunnier outlook
27th A fast moving system aided by some high speed lashing westerlies sunshine covered by clouds as they speed along.
28th A more settled outlook as winds subside with warmth from sun by mid day onwards HURRAH! Summer beckons….
29th Variable breezes, sun with cloud.
30th Some mists around early morning but clearing away later, however it does look as though some more rain makes its presence felt by evening so don’t take anything for granted when the sun shines.
31st Sun provides heat but forms clouds drying up any rain from previous day leaving cloud around for 1st which could stay gloomy, but generally the pattern from 31st- 2nd is one of a fairer
outlook to the north with temps lowering on previous days and some cloud around……..But oh look at 2nd June………book this for your day off and plan a mega outing……………….might even be a great evening for a barbie!

2-9th June

This is the phase when you can get out the barbies, put on your best summer gear and plan for some great outdoors. The only blot on the horizon is some fast and furious sleet and hail and lightening storms raging around by 6th, like a petulant winter trying to stop summer from arriving. Expect both lows and highs with some areas reporting extremes for that day.

2nd Cool sunny day with warmth from sun pretty comforting by mid day onwards
3rd A lovely evening for sure, during the day some varying temps could see cold in shade and exposed areas but temps in sun in sheltered areas will be lovely
4th Fairer weather to north especially
5th some early mists as the earth warms up clearing the way for rising temps today, another lovely evening to enjoy outdoors
6th An all weather day with highs and sudden lows and some static around causing micro hail and sleet showery stuff, some lightening around too as micros circulate inland and to lowlands.
Take your brolly but don’t expect outbursts to last long, it’s a war of the weather but summer wins! Records could be broken today weather wise, some localities could end up with misty stuff but don’t worry it wont stay around long term..
7th onwards some lovely highs can now rule with fair summer weather and higher temps to enjoy though on 9th will be interfered with by whippy, cheeky, gusts and spurts of Nor westerlies.

9th-16th June

A very quick tour of the weather for this phase brings in seasonal record breaking highs by 11th-16th. The East looks set to be where the best weather of all is, the west could see a little more cloud, but overall this is summer at last with sunshine to enjoy.
Overall expect wholesome weather great for outdoors and smell the ozone. Scattered clouds, blue skies and perfect days to enjoy
9th-14th sees southerlies around while the 9th is a glorious day, the 12th could see some scattered precipitation on 12th, the 11th sees a real ratcheting up of temps with some isolated hail shower potential to some pockets mainly east late evening.
14th-16th potential for some breeziness turning NW but at least it keeps Mr Rain from spoiling things.

Aaaaah Summer days

Summer Solstice phase 16th-24th June

Slightly more cloud for us this last phase of Spring, but overall we can expect some fair weather to continue along with seasonal higher range of temps. Some breezes could keep things seasonally cool by 19th as the sun gets ready to rise even higher in the sky which of course always brings in some disturbance as we enjoy all those squelchey wellies around
Glastonbury…they might get drier ground this year!
On 21st, solstice day, we can expect a little cooling with some cloud playing with sun spells around mid day, breezy but overall fair weather to enjoy.
Records for the East GB expected.

AUTUMN WEATHER 2013: W. YORKS: UK: LONG RANGE FORECAST

Autumn 2013

Writing this in early July 2013, after the heady heatwave that broke by 22nd, it’s easy to see more heatwaves continuing well into Autumn….in our dreams. Certainly the season starts with some highs and the area between GB and

Europe is where the best temps reign supreme for a while, so eastern GB looks to be enjoying some nice highs at this stage. To the west of GB some highs also linger but with mists and hazes and some cloud that stops Sun
performing as well as we would like. This looks like turning very autumnal by 5th October when I expect high winds and some stormy outcome.

In fact I expect signs of autumn to show early in leaves and grass due to the drought conditions that left herbiage unquenched and needing sprinklers to keep them moist. In such conditions we get early drop and dying out of
summer growth, the signs usually associated with Autumn in fact.

October charts brought a bit of a challenge. First of all for three weeks we get the same indicators for similar weather patterns for three weeks of the month from 5th-18th and even by 26th there is only a slight variation on the theme with a more intense outlook being generated.

Winter makes its presence around the corner quite clear by 10th November phase when temps try to remain mild but begin to give way to an icy cold front and freezing mists and fogs by 12-13th and this could create some transport
problems. it was chilly just looking at these temps let alone living with them!

This forecast takes us up to the end of November and will be updated in October to take us up to Christmas.

September 2013

FM 19th-27th September
Could be some outpourings to the west prior to this phase, with any residue meandering eastwards from the outset on 27th. If you can remember back in 31st May and first week in June, the Mets kept telling us about the Azores
high and sure enough we got mosquito outbreaks in its wake!

We will still be enjoying a continuation of some good weather for this phase, another potential Azores streak that bathes us in some nice seasonally high temps. NW Scotland could see some variable temps with occasional
dullness, mists haze and cloudiness depending on altitude and this could slowly move further down the west. But overall a good weather trend to enjoy.

27th October-5th October

This is where Autumn discernibly moves in.

The fair weather continues for a few more days, but temps get cooler as the phase progresses growing autumnally cold by 30th when I expect precipitation to hit NW regions, i.e lakes area. Unsettled conditions turns the tide on the good weather from 29th with winds growing restless and ready to blow off the dead leaves. Winds grow ever more erratic by 1st keeping things cool and a little chilly, with sporadic rainy outbursts, mizzle and drizzles heralding the end of summer and dawn of Autumn. Temps much cooler by 3rd onwards when winds rev up in speed and temps grow even more variable and cold, could mean gales for some regions, but some sunshine afterwards for last 2 days I would think.

5th-11th October
The cold weather looks likely to continue with gentle southerlies around at the outset trying to ward off any bitterness, but with northerlies above we can expect mostly clouds forming and localised showery outbursts from 5th, moving eastwards.

By the 7th the weather gets much more unsettled with mists haze and cloud around watery places, with warmth and cold air vying with each for space. I expect clouds if not mists and haze to predominate by late afternoon or
evening, particularly to the eastern areas of our region.
8th Brings a cloudy morning, some mists may linger, more showery outburst likely. Easterlies predominate increasing cloudiness as the day wears on, erratic gustiness makes things unpleasant if not a little stormy with NW one of
the areas of GB most vulnerable to these outburst and squalls. Could be hail or sleet and it is cold so I’m not ruling out snow arriving or heralded by these weather conditions, and it could be highland areas that gets news of the impending arrival.
9th slightly milder conditions, snow still likely as previously mentioned and showery outbursts localised but very heavy at times, but some sunshine spells around to brighten up the outlook.
10th-11th Southerlies blow with a slight rise in mists and haze lingering , high humidity and isolated cloudbursts with heavy downpours for many regions, again looks most likely to North east and west at this stage.
1

1th-18th October

Clearer but cooler conditions rule off east of GB with these slowly moving in later this phase. Milder temps look more likely to far west of UK and this could clash with fogs and mists forming when the two meet.
Residual flood conditions could still be taking up traffic news at the outset and the NW region looks like one of most likely candidates.
A more biting chill factor arrives after 16th when temperatures will get colder as days progress, reminding us winter is on the way.

I expect sporadic isolated cold showery outburst 12-13th, hail or sleet for high places, some cloud to contend with but winds blowing them about creating some windows for sun to shine through now and again. Winds can be gusty
on some days. 13th sees snappy westerlies gusting at times and easterlies bringing in a cloudy outlook with localised showery outbursts, most likely before lunch, 15th and 17th stronger gusty outlook.

14th colder with some sun spells and less likelihood of showery outbreaks
15th Much more unsettled, winds get gustier and lustier and sharp
16th temps move cooler than previous days with frosts likely but a crisp atmosphere more moderate winds and clear visibility with lovely skies. High places could see snow and will be much colder than in lower areas.
17th Rain hail or even sleet, could be heavy at times beginning in the morning for us. Winds gusty, cold coming in from east, a touch of frost early in the morning and at night also heralded for the end of this phase.
18th seems to herald a likelihood of scattered showery outbreaks but read on………………..

18th-26th October

A continuation of similar weather to the last phase but with echoes of a chance of breaking the 1985 March Cambridgeshire 29.4C high on 1st October, but this time it looks at if Suffolk beats the temps with Felixstowe region the most likely winner. Certainly highs rules there from the 18th. This temp was broken 1st October 2011 when 29.9C was hit at Gravesend Kent, and highs will reach by18th a well.

The theme for weather in October 1985 for a similar chart to our current one was showery outbursts with thunder around the UK for 6 days between 2-9th October, and this pattern will repeat as some mugginess and warmth moves
in and isolated torrential downpours arrive as the phase unfolds. Some outbreaks can be short sharp hail showers as at Stainburn Cumbria when 20mm stones hit unsuspecting passers by on 4th of that month. The west of GB as
well as Scotland got the worst of the rain by 6th with snow falling to Cairngorms and Highlands 8th-9th—I expect a similar pattern to emerge as days progress. 1985 brought an Azores High into play and we miss the full heat of this
but a warm front is forming far wet and north of the Azores and we can expect some semi tropical lows to come over, but this is likely to form mists, haze clouds and fogs as it clashes with some of the colder air from 16th.

Isolated and scattered thunderstorms expect, to our region.

Sunset to sunrise should see less to no rainy outbursts for the most part and temps are very mild for the time of year. Evenings look likely to be a bit muggy and foggy, when usually a Full Moon sees clear night skies, but this
could change after midnight for a short while till after sunrise when precipitation favours falling at this stage of the moon.

Winds could get very lively to some regions with westerlies gusty and cutting at times, and northerlies joining in by 23rd but these usually bring a turn in the weather outlook and can clear up and bad conditions.

18th As previously forecast but the scattered showery stuff looks to be moving eastwards and seems further south. This is the day when Suffolk and SE regions get the highs. news of thunderstorms for GB could also be breaking.
Sun spells likely for us.
19th I expect a dry day with northerlies seeing off any total cloud cover forming, but it can be a little muggy with these temps. Fogs and mists likely near water over next few days.
20th Atmospheric disturbances expected from today. Localised sporadic downpours erratic, and intermittent during the day, heavy to some regions, ours too. A seismic time with EQ news for SE Russia or NE China…132E lat
55-60N long but 21st has more signals for exactitude? Semi tropical lows arrive with high humidity and cloudburst slowly circulating, thick hazes and fogs can also form with travel over the Atlantic under stress in these conditions. Gusty on occasions but mostly nebulous and variable breezes and winds.
21st Could be a drier outlook but high humidity and some cloud mists and fogs to valleys.
22nd Quick isolated and localised hail outbursts, but temps seasonally mild generally, very unsettled weather outlook.
23rd We can expect extremes of temps for the season to be causing raised eyebrows but I expect them to be on the warm side rather than colder than expected (famous last words!) Weather now gets pulled eastwards for a few
days and it does seem a little squally with variable winds, gusting at times and strong to NW and Scotland causing some travel problems on roads and highways. More mists fogs and haze around and by 24th onwards isolated
rainy weather travels eastwards with muggy conditions .
25th has some promise for sun spells and more semi tropical type temps but accompanies by mists and haze, so it looks like a cloudy night is heralded keeping the temps seasonably mild. Haze expect, mists and fogs to valleys
with variable winds continuing.

Oct 26th-3rd November

Perhaps levels of rain might be lower than we usually expect, and temps milder than expected for this time of year, and East Anglia seems to be getting a lot of the better ranges of sunshine with perhaps drier conditions and warmer
temps than the rest of us, I’m not ruling out drought conditions creating some problems for the region either.

For this phase I expect thunderstorms to arrive but little to no floods, although by the end of the phase heavier rain is likely, but the NW looks likely to get some pretty sharp or extreme outcomes.

Tornado Alley in the US looks busy at this time also.

26th Variable winds from the outset, some sunshine around but clouds developing, temps on the mild side

27th-29th Some quick sleet and sporadic showers expected, localised and intermittent but temps still mild generally and high humidity with occasional cloudbursts–quite sharp and heavy by 29th where NW sees the heavier precipitation.

From 29th weather gets easterly cloudier and skies duller and storms can be pushed northwards+ NE with outlook clearer for the southern regions. This system looks fast moving and consists of rain turning to sleet, snow with hail outbursts with winds breezy, very gusty and temps getting lower with rainfall cooling them off, some wild and windy weather is also expected.

1st Nov looks less unsettled with some chance of sunshine and clearer skies for days ahead, but breezy conditions are very active.

The last two days will have some sunshine during the day, but look more likely to see some rain travelling across by evening for us and for southern regions as well and strong westerlies remain gusty if not blizzard like, but some sunshine could also break out, but I expect snow to be in the news at the outset of our next phase Dublin and some parts of GB look to be white by 3rd, could be frost or snow…read on……

3d Nov-10th

A cold front arrives during this phase but turning milder by the end. 4th and 8th look to be the main culprits for wet weather, but other days can bring in some cold showery outbreaks. Winds should be less active for us.

3rd Looks like a little warming for southern regions anyway, but there is also cloud around and cold pockets, with rain sleet and snow showery outbreaks.
4th A low system brings a cold front, not ruling out snow either, skies look dull with cold mists and fogs likely to coast and valleys, showers can be intermittent and drizzly the skies are much better before sunrise so get up early to see them!
5th Some sun attempts by morning, accompanied by quick hail and sleet showers, sporadic and localised, unsettled conditions with occ sun spells.
6th The next few days brings in some haze, variable winds, some dull cloudy weather from 6th, but some sun spells, 7th will be cloudier later with poor visibility trends, could be more drizzles overnight to next day 8th is calm but humid and mists from overnight, easterlies shows some muggy conditions around but a bright promise around 6-9 am
9th can see some sun around mid day a risk of short sharp showers around sunset and more easterlies keeping things a bit dull
10th Generally fair but a risk of showers again by evening.

10th-17th November

This is when temps come to be extremely wintery with icy cold conditions and freezing over likely. Generally fair conditions at the first few days between mists and showery outbursts

10th Some windy weather from the outset with easterlies gusting around mid day, but this gives way to calmer conditions later at night. Sporadic hail and sleet showers expected from around midnight to early 1 am on 10th onwards. freezing fogs likely late at night towards 11th so take care on the roads.
11th Rain and showery conditions moving to east of us, some southerlies around but mild, and more freezing fogs by evening.
12th Some cloud with sunny spells during the day
13th Cool with sun spells from sunrise onwards should be a nice by the afternoon but some clouds and mists to valleys expected by evening.
14th Hail and sleet can burst out but not be long lived otherwise some fair trned operating
15th Today brings a very noticeable cold low into play when we could see water begin to freeze over. Icy cold showers could break out late evening and there is some potential for sleet if not snow storms with higher elevations affected, but this cold front is going to be very chilling.

16th-17th Cloudy some gentle breezy conditions about, cloudier to northern parts, fairer to the south but chilly, some warmth from sun during mid day on 17th.

17th-25th November

This phase shows extremes of temp lowering to very icy with the big freeze coming over. By 20th we could see some cold air descending to meet iciness producing some wind emergencies down in the Midlands, and the west
could also see some action from westerlies veering north to try and clear everything up a bit.

East Anglia, Norfolk regions look very cold too, so does NW of Scotland where temps are very low the SW England and NE Scotland also look in line to get snowfall by 17/18th……….

17th-18th Looks windy to the east of us, temps nippy, frost on the ground likely with potential for sleet and winter showers giving a show of white cover. Some sun could be around to keep things cheerful, with evening skies being clearer but creating cold conditions due to no or little cloud cover.

19th-20th Some rising temps during the day with sunshine trying to gain control, but hail and sleet flurries look set to come over from the east for us, heavier to the eastern parts, heavier for us on 20th and to southern shores.
Today -20th-brings in the winds I mentioned above , these can be gusty, the Midlands and Scotland look worse hit by these, nippy, keeping things very cutting, temps very icy out of the daytime sunshine. I’m not ruling out sleet hail and snow blizzards with this wind, creating a bit of a news headline.
21st Icy showers arrive today possibly by lunchtime, some sun spells with cloud and some south-easterly air flows keeping things muggy during the day.
22nd is very unsettled with south westerlies around, could be a rough ride weather wise if not an all weather day when we get rain, hail sleets snow and sun till the weather decides what it is going to do. These outbursts will be very localised and intermittent through the day.
23rd Cloudy but fairer potential for snowfall also or sleet and hail creating fogs and mists by late afternoon due to high humidity and by 24th little to no or nebulous winds growing cloudier by evening with an intensely cold low front moving in heralding dull leaden skies and moving eastwards today and on 25th when easterlies make things gloomier Bbbbrrrrrrr……..

This post is also repeated on http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com
Reports on accuracy of weekly outcomes will be resumed at a later stage. Read previous postings on weekly feedback of previous seasons to get a measure of accuracy which is often 80-90% and for many weeks in a season it can be 100% using the same methods our ancient forecasters used to forecast weather using ancient satellite technology.

FEEDBACK Long Range Weather Forecast 19th July – 2nd August

FEEDBACK 19th-26th August

19th brought heavy showers in the early monring with sun and cloud later and warm temps but some breezy conditions, a dry day though some localised showers were widespread as I expected.
20th Very early light showers but another dry day for us cludy though with sun spells as forecast
21st Sunny and dry day as forecast
22nd light early shower, cloudy but a sunny day develpping by mid day, windy but hot in the sun as forecast, but no showers for us.
23rd Very windy conditions blue skies wool packed cloud with temps ave to high depending on how sheltered or in shade you were, given a cool windy outlook.
24th-28th Generally the weather turned out to be be fair to good but I wasn’t in my usual locality though given I foecast good weather to the east coast, I have to say I was delighted to find my foecast, given early this year, was correct as the east coast was enjoying excellent summer conditions in spite of the met giving poor conditions to the North of England. I was at Whitby where folk were saying they had enjoyed fantastic highs and sun from Saturday 21st……….and notice my foecast, delivered in February said that the East Coast of Yorkshire would have good place for highs from the start of this pahse…so an excellent result for this phase forecast. Thursday 26th was the one to watch out for as the met forecast t/storms for this day and these didn’t materialise at all instead there was just a break in blue sky conditions with rain arriving early on Wednesday but only in drizzles that didn’t spoil outdoor pursuits.

An excellent long range forecast for this phase.

26th July- 2nd August FEEDBACK
26th-28th as above, lovely weather
29th cluody, some sun and some brief localised showers around W Yorks
30th Cloudy day with occasional sun spells cooer temp[s due to breezes and windiness.
31st Cloudy all day, cooler temps, some few sun spells drizzles by late evening leading to mistiness and fog patches late at night
1st August Cloudy start, sun attempts by mid day, sun and showers in the afternoon and evening soradic as forecast.
2nd Sunny generally though a quick showery outburst in the afternoon, not long lasting though and ave to warm temps…..

Cooler temps this phase than the previous one as forecast……

Feedback Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorkshire and Yonder 3rd-19th July 2012

FEEDBACK 3rd-11th July
Certainly there was a weather battle but only one person I know in the whole of the UK could insist drought was ruling the summer, and she lives in Oxfordshire. However, by the end of the week she apologised as more rains created floods to Cornwall ensuring she could no longer continue believing we were in the grip of drought as her town remained dry whilst the rest of us watched flood headlines raging all week!

Unsettled air certainly raged around and static burst arrived here by 4th and on 5th we were treated to a mega 1 hourly amount of thunderous outbursts with lightening and almost monsoon levels of rain by 6-8 pm Thursday 5th.
The drought was finally even if reluctantly, declared over as the last four water authorities in the south removed the dreaded hosepipe ban as waters welled up everywhere and overflowed, leaving no one in any doubt that we were having a washout summer season!

EARTHQUAKES
The seismic indicators brought an avalanche in Mont Blanc mountains where sadly two men from our region were killed by an avalanche along with others attempting to climb the French alps. I also expected reports of an EQ to Beijing region of China but the nearest I got was M6.3 – 99km S of Dushanzi, China 2012-06-29 21:07:32 UTC which is quite a long way to the SE of Bejjing which was where I expected a hit to be honest……
The Kazakstan ones weren’t in evidence for Omsk and Alma Ata but these hit Russia and I need to check if they are along the path I picked out for Omsk etc…
1 5.1 285km E of Kuril’sk, Russia 2012-07-11 02:50:02 45.344°N 151.519°E 49.3
2 5.7 281km E of Kuril’sk, Russia 2012-07-11 02:31:17 45.414°N 151.467°E
3 Quite a few at 4 or 5 magnitude east of Kuril’sk —– i.e 4.7 265km E of Kuril’sk, Russia 2012-07-08 16:58:28 45.465°N 151.259°E 49.4 and one bigger 6 + magnitude one for 8th July 6.0 268km E of Kuril’sk, Russia 2012-07-08 11:33:02 45.502°N 151.285°E

In fact most of the EQ for Russia were beyond 140 East, so it is interesting that I didn’t hit the target for my forecast on this occasion.

FLOODS AND LIGHTENING STRIKES TO EAST OF US

I did warn in February in my summer season blog, that countries one hour ahead of us for this phase would be the worst hit by weather indicators I saw in charts for this season and it seems I was correct and clearly Russia, one hour and more ahead of us, was one of the worst hit with 2 months rainfall arriving in only a few hours to cause chaos, Krymsk saw a third of houses flooded on 7th, some areas has flash floods rising seven metres high, and the port at Novorossiisk in the Krasnador region had to shut down. Many more similar headlines kept pouring out of Russia this phase accompanying some of our own weather headlines which were nearly as bad. People further east in Russia were hit by lightening striking children during unusually heavy storm in Moscow. 13.07.2012: 14 killed in lightning strikes in India’s storms JULY 13: Man survived after lightning strike in East Kazakhstan region. 11 July 2012, 11:04. I did warn that lightening strikes would be spectacular for this phase……….and they certainly were with headlines streaming in from all over the globe of hits to buildings and people in the northern hemisphere at least…

OUR LOCAL WEATHER RESULT
3rd was overcast very mild temps muggy conditions high humidity and a mild breeze but showery by 8pm onwards.
4th Cloudy muggy and showery by 4 pm thunderstorm by 5 40pm
5th-6th Dry bright but cloudy daytime but prolonged thundery outbursts by 6 50pm followed by torrents of rain till 8 pm then again into following day which was a complete washout as rain continued to pour relentlessly accompanied by mists I had said would characterise this summer’s weather. ( a good forecast for rain and static outbursts but a poor forecast for sunshine and blue skies in between!!)
7th No rain thank goodness, but the ground was exceedingly soggy and it was muggy and misty from the drenching of previous two days. Sun spells by late am full cloud for afternoon but sunshine till 7pm and just when you
thought it couldn’t rain any more it did at 7 10 pm…..in fact flood warnings were springing up all over the UK by now and sales of wellies and brollies must have rocketed…..
8th Ground soggy and spongy and slippery, cloudy am, temps mild, no breeze, cloudy pm showery rainy by 5pm approx very muggy conditions for evening. (not good days for the sunbathing I said you would get then–not enough
sunshine around !)
9th Sun spells to let us know what we are missing, cloudy though but dry, thank goodness, then heavy showers 1 pm onwards but drier later in day (unsettled as forecast)
10th Mists due to moisture till 2 pm overcast, drizzles and mizzles to keep us miserable no breeze and a cool temp. ( I forecast for highs but it didn’t feel that way though there was a lot of humidity around)
11th Some sun spells again and clouds around a quick shower by 9 30 am dry later and breezy, then sunny by 4pm average temps but still a washout summer, but this days forecast wasn’t too way out thank goodness…

I’m not surprised my forecasts are not as clearly successful as normal as the weather patterns are so unusually unsettled the lack of a stable pattern was difficult for any met to be confident of. I said ”Erratic weather conditions at this part of the weather phase…..” and for sure this was the best thing I could have forecast……erratic weather conditions seem to be the norm now for summer 2012……..Hebden Bridge got flooded three times by this stage of summer and within a few weeks of each other, not only that there are two many floods reports from all around the UK for me to incorporate them into my feedback so I’m just keeping to local outcomes as above, as I have recorded them.

FEEDBACK 12th July-19th

12th a dry day mostly sunny and some cloud around. fairly accurate forecast though no showers around at sunrise as forecast
13th Early shower overcast day so not a good forecast for today though as expected a dry day and no rain arrived
14th Tiny amount of spray 4 pm but otherwise sunny with cloud spells, breezy with ave temps but varying hot spells in sun. A very good forecast for today
15th Sunny day blue skies with white fluffy clouds, but winds were strong at times and blustery keeping things cool in exposed areas. Another good forecast, not sure what direction these cool winds were though
16th Overcast day some spray around 10 40 am, then rain around from 1-2pm, remaining cloudy. Very breezy afternoon. A very good forecast.
17th Very light spartan showers from early morning and again around 9am in our locality. I suspect other localities got variances on these time wise, showery attempts at intermittent intervals during the afternoon along with some sunspells and cloud. Showers continued at intervals in the evening when winds got stronger and more blustery. a fairly accurate forecast for today.
18th Overcast start, strong blustery winds/breezes. A mini shower around 9 am with clearer sunnier afternoon occasional high temps varying with cooling strong alternating breeze/windy weather
19thVery heavy very early morning shower leaving the morning feeling refreshed and cool, but temps got warmer during daytime with sunshine and cloud, though some localised spartan showers did browse around.

So long range forecasting arrives back on track at last…..
Don’t forget my full season is published on http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com always months ahead of the weather arriving with no last minute updates.

FEEDBACK Weather 19th June- 3rd July W Yorks and Yonder

FEEDBACK 19th June-3rd July
The overview for this phase said it all. Glastonbury didn’t happen this year but we did see people in muddy wellies at the Isle of White festival where mud baths were enjoyed by all as the foul weather over-ran the event, but at least everyone remained in good festival spirit!

20th was bright and sunny with some breezes and warm temps but cloudy by evening heralding the very heavy rain for 21st and 22nd No blue skies at all, so a bad forecast, but then I was expecting cooler conditions to reign but it rained instead —torrentially!
23rd was drier with some sun spells and the occasional showery outburst with stronger windy spells as well and much cooler temps. I’m not sure which region got t/storms but none encountered in my locality. I think the 23rd forecast for rain continuing overnight was two days out and should have been dated 21st/22nd weather….must do better at timing next season!!
24th Showery before 4 am suny by 8-9 am with occasional showery spells later and strong gusty winds rather than nebulous breezes that I expected.
25th was a dry day with some sun spells………….
26th-27th unfortunately no feedback as I wasn’t here to keep a check on outcomes for the weather………though I expect my forecasts for these two days were more accurate than for the previous days…..

I did warn in my introduction to the season that this summer would echo that of 1685 when similar planetary conditions brought drought, paricularly for the south, until June…..and certainly this general forecast seems to be coming true. By the end of June hosepipe bans were lifted, especially to the south.

 

27th June- 3rd July 

I can’t give feedback for the 27th -3rd July due to being in the south of England where weather to East Anglia at least was fairer than in our region. The 28th June gave amazing weather events to the NE where mudslides captured headlines, and elsewhere rain caused havoc with rail and road travel, but not to the SE region where I was….In fact though a t/storm was forecast by the met for my SE region we got only a spattering of a shower before 9 am and a lovely sunny day to follow…

My own W Yorks and Yonder forecast was brief for this phase with only an overview which didn’t mention the flooding and chaos, and I have no idea how bad it was in W Yorks. I’ll be honest and say that the chart for this overview was challenging and I was very wary of any interpretation it defied!

Certainly by 1-3rd fairer days broke out, as forecast, with temps mild and muggy, haven’t had time to check my forecast for static in Scotland, but certainly the muggy conditions contained static energy to these parts too, leading to showery outbursts late on 3rd.

The overview I gave seems wide of the mark for I forecast fine weather to the east coast, which was where the NE mudslides occurred on 28th, but I was on the SE coast, and my forecast was fine for that region! Oh dear, I seem to be off kilter and not as accurate as usual for this season. Certainly it wasn’t a good forecast for the NE, and I have no idea how accurate I was for W Yorks either.

Thankfully my summer forecasts only go up to the end of August for the summer season and lessons have been learned which I can only hope stand me in a more accurate state for the forecasts for the rest of the year.

By June we had many planets changing signs and the Venus Sun combination, which was challenging the usual outcomes of forecasts I am used to reading, but hopefully I should be returning to my higher accuracy levels for September onwards……fingers crossed…

Interesting though that the usual Full Moon clearer weather pattern isn’t happening this year, it seems to be the New Moon that’s bringing the highs and clearer outlook. and the quarter Moon sometimes bringing worse weather than the three quarter Moon…….this could be a clue to planning my next getaway for good weather so I can make the most of what is becoming the wash out summer I told friends to expect back in February…..

Weather Forecast 28th May-19th June 2012 W Yorks and Yonder

       

28th May-4th June
 Windy, cold but drier phase but t/storms could break out to some regions, west looks likely area. Short spells of showery outbreaks interrupt dry sunny weather.

28th Sun with cloud and cold temps mists and mizzles near watery places in valleys but any poor weather is moving fast so shouldn’t stay around to spoil things too much. Some sunshine expected during the day. Any static outbursts will soon be over.
29th Today is hard to convey as conditions forecast isolated and heavy downpours for some localities. This is a day when you set off to Otley/Bolton Abbey etc from Horsforth/Yeadon in fine weather only to find you end up in a downpour, then get back home to find it was a lovely day  and you missed out on the good weather!! Some sunshine and blue sky expected but cloudier evening. Temps moderate though cooler in localities where rain falls.
30th A fairer day average temps with cold pockets in shade, ground may be wet but gusty wins should be drying things out.
31st Could be a shower after midnight but sunnier by sunrise with whippy westerlies lashing your face in exposed areas.
1st More muggy trends southerly breezes keep things getting too cool but brining in cloudiness. Scattered showery conditions but sunny as fast moving cloud travels over.
2nd Watery Neptune stations today but seems to be bringing mists mizzles and haziness to western regions beyond ours. Mod temps with some scattered showery spells but some sunshiny bits as well
3-4th Gusty easterlies arrive for three days sustaining a static outlook and more showery outbreaks. Showery late 3rd and into early 4th. Sun with cloud for 4th which looks like a better day

4th June-11th
A FINE WEATHER WEEK HURRAH! VENUS SUN conjunction.

GET OUT THE BBQ! I’m booking away days for this phase which looks like the best of the weather for us for Spring so far. When looking at these charts I always have an eye on the best weeks to book away days and so far have felt that no week looked good enough to guarantee long lasting warmth and less humidity and consistent good conditions. This week ticks all the boxes. A Full Moon usually brings good evenings with fine skies that sees everyone heading for bistro or bar by the river or canal and this week should be no exception. For many days to come it looks like flaming June lives up to its reputation………………..( Quick note and update:-  remember I wrote these forecasts and published them early Jan-Feb but happily the hot sunshine arrived earlier than forecasted, and luckily I managed to getaway to enjoy it, hopefully this forecast will also turn out sunnier than expected)
Some exciting astronomical event for this week will hit the headlines and it will be Venus retrograding over the Sun in the sky which you may recall also occurred in 2004. For us this is extra special as it combines with a sensitive position in one of the charts I use for forecasting temperatures, and augurs a high for our region especially.

2004 saw many floods for the Yorkshire region but a staggeringly dramatic flood for Boscastle by August 16th, in the west peninsular which I had only visited a few weeks before the landslides and huge torrents of water ravaged the tiny village. I’m watching events following this years Venus Sun conjunction on 6th June.

4th Cool but sunny, some easterlies still hovering, but the worst of the mists and mizzles look to be near Dundee, Carmarthen, Lewis and Cork areas not ours.
5th A hot day and some great weather in following days it is only once we get to 10th that some mists and haze or even precipitation around 12-2pm can break up the nice weather.
11th brings in some gusty NW but temps rising high so we’ll see what is coming up for the next phase….read on….

4th June-19th

This week continues the good weather trends and summer really settles into some lovely temps and dry weather with some high ozone coming over with blue skies and heady outlook for some fine days. Some gusty winds and breeziness but I doubt they will spoil the outdoor activity and although some scattered spray and showers can be released by the static conditions created by the highs I doubt they will spoil outdoor activity until later in the phase.

11th Slightly unsettled atmosphere can lead to some scattered showers around, some gusty cold NW around but also some blue skies with wool packed clouds temps increasingly warmer as the day progresses
2nd same as yesterday with some gusty westerlies keeping things lively a slight cooling till sun gains strength at mid day
13th Wholesome outdoor conditions along with some easterly flows, some cloud around but higher temp range expected today
14th Temps remain higher range scattered showers over as soon as they begin and quite refreshing
15th -16th weather of previous days should continue with some northerlies around on 15th
17th Brings a high with rising temps and high ozone and some blue sky expected but some warning of a scattered showery outlook after sunrise along with gusty westerlies from today could be some mistiness around near water and in valleys due to higher temps over previous days.
18th Some more cloud around and breezy conditions continue, strong at times
19th A very wet front seems likely to pass over to the eastern parts and could be prolonged precipitation that creates mists and fogs as it travels. High levels of precip expected and the high temps can be a little muggy today, but who cares….summer is clearly on the way and we have just been reminded of that in the previous days…..

 

Enjoy the weather whatever it may be and wherever you are

FEEDBACK 13th-29th April Spring Weather W Yorks and Yonder 2012

FEEDBACK 13th -21stApril

Gales as forecast arrived to south and Bristol Channel 17th as well as mists to that some parts of England by 18th, so the overview for this phase was intact in that respect. Transport problems hit the headlines due to air flights at Heathrow being grounded due to a fire in one of the planes, but also weather warnings Wednesday 18th saw some slow-moving downpours, with hail and thunder. Some surface water flooding lead to difficult driving conditions, while coastal gales still raged at Bristol. Also, roads may be slippery in heavy hail bringing transport problems as forecast.

The mists and fogs I forecast arrived to the south regions by 17th and 18th.

13th Early showers before sunrise an overcast morning but fresh outdoors with some sun spells by 1 30pm. Temps cold, and sporadic light showers late in day and evening….hail showers for us 4pm approx. So my temps forecast not good for today which wasn’t as mild as expected.
14th Dry overcast am fresh nippy temps a little breeze around, with light intermittent showers further to west at Ilkley during the afternoon etc but remaining dry here
15th Sunny start cloudier by mid day chilly breezes keep things cool in sun, hail outbursts mid afternoon
16th Sunny start clouds thicker by mid day breezy but dry day, temps cool. I forecast potential rain for today but it remained dry, we were breezy here rather than windy.
17th Possible early showers, continuing till 10 00 am cloud with sun spells breezy and milder than yesterday but strong windy outbursts by 1 pm with more prolonged sun spells, showery again by 4 30pm with precipitation coming in with the winds which here became very strong almost in a funnel of speedy vortex bringing hail with it 6-7pm. Fogs and mists warning given out for south regions, so this part of my overview was accurate.
18th a Very rainy day from the start!! No sun shine till late pm………but rainy mizzle and drizzle kept breaking out and continuing into 19th giving us two days of wetness and miserable weather, with floods to Pocklington North Yorks for today….
20th Dry, bright but cloudy some short showery outbursts 12 pm Storms were very widespread to south of England today
21st Chilly, breezy sun with cloud at start of day sleet by 11 20 am more sleet hail outbursts in the afternoon, further to west at Ilkley and beyond had very heavy downpours…no electric blue sky day that I forecast sadly! Getting the washing dry wasn’t an option today either….apologies…..

Not a brilliant forecast this phase, with the prolonged rainy spells 18-19th not factored in, as well as sunshine forecasts being way out as well. The overview was very accurate but the daily forecasts for our locality were not reliable.

FEEDBACK 21st-29th April

Thankfully I got back on track by mid week with this weeks forecast, after being wide of the mark for the last phase. I wasn’t surprised at how the 22nd turned into a rainy day contradicting my prediction as this was a phase that activated the earlier Scorpio perigee and I was watching closely so see what the impact would be and I did make it clear I couldn’t be sure whether it would pour it down or not as this was a new situation not encountered for the past ten years. It did rain and quite heavily at intermittent intervals, and just when you thought it would stop and go away it started up again till overnight into 23rd…….no sunshine around at all to shout about….even the ducks look miserable at this stage…..

23rd was dry by breakfast, though ground was swimming and puddly, and the temps were cold, but the sun attempted to break through by afternoon and if you managed to catch it, there was some warmth coming through to remind us of better times. This didn’t last long though and soon after the clouds threatened rain which became heavy by 5 30 pm approx perhaps confirming the 90% rule I told you about New Moon and better weather sunrise to sunset…
24th Sunny blue sky start deteriorated into overcast mid day, but dry, ave temps and very sunny by 4pm…..no conditions for the sun soak I was hoping for, but certainly an improvement on miserable days before….
25th -26th These two days brought prolonged rainy spells at times very heavy the forecast for these two days was pretty accurate….thank goodness….by 7pm on 25th the rain was torrential here and some showers on 26th also brought torrents causing flooding to roads locally. Visibility was poor due to rainy conditions and hilltops were obscured by mistiness of precip.
27th Short showery outbreaks in the morning, but the sky was cloudy, not sunny but the sun was trying to breakthrough by mid day and afternoon, giving us some brightness to sing about….and temps were much milder with some warmth trying to breakthrough. There were some brisk and lively breezy conditions around. The seaside resort to be today was St Anne’s which experienced a lovely sunny day.
28th Overcast and very windy by evening, some hail outbreaks mid morning and mid afternoon, temps cool skies clearer by evening a reasonable forecast for today though not exactly ”fine” it was better than previous days 29th Rain rain and rainageddon….can’t wait for warmageddon to arrive………….

A very disappointing forecast and no I didn’t see this level of consistent rain and near flood levels for W Yorks, so apologies for that…..though the clue was in my forecast that a same chart last

year ended the drought spell bringing in rain and I also warned that I wasn’t sure of how the apogee opposite perigee would manifest for this phase…..

Read http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is now posted keep coming back to find out

what awaits us in the summer season….go to http://www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

W Yorks and Yonder Long Range Weather Forecast 31st March-13th April

March 31st-April 6th 

Outlook is for very cold temps to begin with but sunshine to brighten us up, and some warmer temps by 4th helping us look forward to summer. The windy weather continues and I expect reports of a t/storm to some region of the UK.

31st Strong gusty NW, lashing everything it meets, high speed to some regions. Sunny outlook but temps retaining icy pockets, cloud around but clearing as sun grows stronger by mid day. Potential for quick isolated hail outburst late afternoon

1st – 4th April some cloud around with nippy icy pockets, but lots of sunshine to enjoy by mid day. It’s the winds that create problems during these few days, any showery outbreaks icy cold hail or sleet, look set to arrive around midnight
4th Should see temperatures rising a little, wind still strong and gusty, some sunshine with cloud. Temps on high ground expected to drop to lows.
5th Same as 4th but cloudy or misty start and more cloud around in the evening, quick hail/sleet showers by midnight. Temps getting warmer with humidity around producing some warmer almost tropical outpourings to some regions beyond ours. Winds should be less active by today.
6th Sunny, and looks like  the warmest day of all, but some mists and clouds as a result. Some broody easterlies and southerlies warding off the cold pockets of previous days. A misty cloudy start but temps getting much more agreeable as day wears on.

6th-13th April

A similar chart to this one occurred in October 2009 when heavy rain arrived giving floods to Scotland. I do expect t/storms to be reported to some regions of the UK.

Well first of all we have the infamous perigee moon that always brings headlines to read about some major weather induced incident…I hesitate to say disaster as I don’t want to follow global warmers who hog headlines with disaster warnings all the time…since Aristotle’s day as it happens….still on with the weather…

This perigee moon gave a me a headache as earlier in February ( the same week I am writing this I might add) when I fully expected good old Scorpio Moon to bring heavy rain if not flooding, I was humiliated by the total drought that ensued!! Yes I VERY ACCURATELY forecast a weather system coming down from Foroyar which it did, and resulted in a high pressure system that blocked the Moon in Scorpio from delivering the floods I expected….Harrumph.  Iwas so annoyed at not expecting this to happen! So much so, that I hesitated to deliver this spring forecast which I was working on at the time, and felt like throwing in the towel on astro forecasting!
I still might have to if I have to resort to using jargon such as high and low pressure and isobars which is not what I want to do.

In spite of the above, there will be some fine weather to enjoy and evenings for this phase usually bring pleasanter conditions, while there will be some windy weather and some rain around–well it is a perigee moon phase…..but there is also a massive drought indicator as well planet wise…
Oh and if you are laughing at the fact the moon perigee has anything to do with weather….shame really as there are some immaculate studies that show a significant correlation between high precipitation at the time of perigee moons, though of course not all perigees will bring high levels of rainfall.
6th as forecast previously

7th Some mists or cloud around, muggy conditions with easterlies and southerlies active keeping conditions seasonally mild outlook is for rain heavy at times for late afternoon with some clearer skies late evening and overnight

8th Some showery outbreaks 3-5 am, unsettled atmosphere with cloudiness around till later in afternoon, temps cooler than yesterday, some sporadic breeziness southerly and westerly for today and tomorrow.

9th Same as yesterday with some potential for sporadic hail and sleet outbreaks. Sun with cloud during day.

10th-11th Cloudy start but sunnier afternoon and evening, temps cool. 11th looks brighter than 10th

12th Sun with cloud around, temps warming up, some easterly breeziness and clear evening skies good for outdoors and gardening or even a stroll…famous last words!

13th  Sunshiny start and looks like some nice spring temps remind us summer is just around the corner…easterly breezes keep the warmth notched up.

Read amazingweather.wordpress.com for the full season forecast, and the WHOLE OF Spring season is already posted if you want to plan ahead…Summer is nearly ready to post to keep coming back to find out what awaits us in the summer

season….go to www.starsite.org.uk if you would like to know more about the growth of astrometeorology down the centuries…

 

Apologies for the display in this forecast, can’t figure why changes aren’t being made by the edit in wordpress….hopefully it wont affect the weather outlook:-)