WINTER 2017 WEATHER BLOG

With not enough time to deliver a forecast for winter 2017 I decided instead to blog my old piece of research into references found in old texts about climate change, that old debate about whether the world is square round, doomed or saved….or just endlessly fascinating.

I am blogging this tp give fodder to the debate on climate change and global warming, with no bias or preference, just a tour of the debate over the centuries but in brief.

http://www.ebooksread.com/authors-eng/charles-lyell/the-students-elements-of-geology-hci/page-23-the-students-elements-of-geology-hci.shtml shows evidence of climate change through plants.

http://www.icecap.us/
http://www.sacred-texts.com/earth/pf/pf12.htm

Paradise Found, by William F. Warren, [1885], at sacred-texts.com

Some interesting findings to suggest that rather than being scaremongered into believing carbon emissions and burning fossils will destroy the planet ( though for sure some of the e methods of exploiting them do cause tremendous pollution and irreversible desecration of the environment), should we be delighting in the fact that climate change could take us back to our very origins. Here’s a tour of some ancient texts reportage of climate change down the ages:-

CHAPTER IV.
THE TESTIMONY OF PREHISTORIC CLIMATOLOGY.
Ver Iliad erat, ver magnus agebat Orbis.—Vergil.

One of the most startling and important of the scientific discoveries of the last twenty years has been that of the relics of a luxuriant Miocene flora in various parts of the Arctic regions. It is a discovery which was totally unexpected, and is even now considered by many men of science to be completely unintelligible, but it is so thoroughly established, and it has such an important bearing on the subjects we are discussing in the present volume, that it is necessary to lay a tolerably complete outline of the facts before our readers.—A. R. Wallace 1880).

It is now an established conclusion that the great aggressive faunas and floras of the continents have originated in the North, some of them within the Arctic Circle.—Principal Dawson (1883).

All the evidence at our command points to the Northern hemisphere as the birth-place of the class, Mammalia, and probably of all the orders.—Alfred Russel Wallace.

Another well-known naturalist says: “It should also be observed that in the beginning of things the continents were built up from North to South,—such has been, at least, the history of the North and South American and the Europeo-Asiatic and the African continents; and thus it would appear that north of the equator, at least, animals slowly migrated southward, keeping pace as it were with the growth and southward extension of the grand land-masses which appeared above the sea in the Paleozoic ages. Hence, scanty as is the Arctic and Temperate region of the earth at the present time, in former ages these regions were as prolific in life as the tropics now are, the latter regions, now so vast, having through all the Tertiary and Quaternary ages been undisturbed by great geological revolutions, and meanwhile been colonized by emigrants driven down by the incoming cold of the glacial period.” …..

……Professor Friedrich Müller, of Vienna, and Dr. Moritz Wagner, both of whom place the probable cradle of the race in some high latitude in Europe or Asia, lay the utmost stress upon the mighty climatic revolution which came in with the glacial age, ascribing to it the most stupendous and transforming influences that have ever affected mankind. 1 In our view the deterioration of natural environment reduced the
vigor and longevity of the race; in theirs it changed one of the tribes of the animal world into men! Which of these views is the more rational may safely be left to the reader’s judgment. Few will be disposed to accept the doctrine that man is simply a judiciously-iced pithecoid.

….We must now be prepared to admit that God can plant an Eden even in Spitzbergen; that the present state of the world is by no means the best possible in relation to climate and vegetation; that there have been and might be again conditions which could convert the ice-clad Arctic regions into blooming Paradises.—Principal J. W. Dawson.

Mr. Scribner’s answer to the question, “Where did Life begin?” human as well as floral and faunal life should be included. After examining these fresh lines of evidence it is believed that the reader will find more impressive than ever the words with which our author concludes his charming tractate:—

“Thus the Arctic zone, which was earliest in cooling down to the first and highest heat degree in the great life-gamut, was also first to become fertile, first to bear life, and first to send forth her progeny over the earth. So, too, in obedience to the universal order of things, she was first to reach maturity, first to pass all the subdivisions of life-bearing climate and finally the lowest heat degree in the great life-range, and so the first to reach sterility, old age, degeneration, and death. And now, cold and lifeless, wrapped in her snowy winding sheet, the once fair mother of us all rests in the frozen embrace of an ice-bound and everlasting sepulchre.”

http://www.sacred-texts.com/atl/rag/index.htm
RAGNAROK:THE AGE OF FIRE AND GRAVEL.BYIGNATIUS DONNELLY,
[1883]

Ragnarok, The Age of Fire and Gravel, proposes that a comet impacted the Earth several tens of thousands of years ago; the impact produced the ‘Drift’ layers of gravel which have been attributed to the Ice ages; this event destroyed a civilization which had high technology, a civilization which vanished completely except for some myths; the disaster was accompanied by catastrophic fire followed by years-long cloud cover and extreme cold. Humanity survived only by hiding in deep caves; when they re-emerged they had to restart civilization from scratch. Donnelly provides extensive geological, archeological, astronomical and mythological evidence for this theory. The book is not academic and often sensationalistic, but his populist style does not seem to detract from the argument.

Today, mass extinction from cometary impact is considered mainstream science, supported by a huge body of physical evidence.
More recently the book When the Earth Nearly Died When the Earth Nearly Died by D.S. Allan and J.B. Delair [1995] (reissued as Cataclysm: Compelling Evidence of a Cosmic Catastrophe in 9500 B.C.), brought together a mass of evidence that a catastrophic impact of extrasolar material occurred in 9,500 B.C.

You can also read how it may be that the Zoroastrians may have left us evidence that they were preparing for a nuclear disaster and how it may be that climate change is a result of extra terrestrial impacts of earth with comets and other objects…..

http://www.sacred-texts.com/afr/we/index.htm Wonderful Ethiopians
of the Ancient Cushite Empire by Drusilla Dunjee Houston
[1926, no renewal] read how the desert regions of Africa have been subjected to horrors of horrors….CLIMATE CHANGE!

CHAPTER III. ANCIENT ETHIOPIA, THE LAND.

The Nubo-Egyptian desert was once abundantly watered and a well timbered region. With the exclusion of the narrow Nile valley, all of this is generally a barren waste today. Geology reveals that in the primitive ages, this country had a moist climate like the Congo basin; but these conditions prevailed in remote geological times, probably before the creation of the delta. The changes that turned the Sahara into a burning waste in time made Upper Egypt dry and torrid. Keane describes its climate as often fatal to all but full blooded natives. Under those brazen skies the children of even Euro-African half castes seldom survive after the tenth or twelfth year. Passing southward, we find that ancient edifices occur throughout the whole extent of Ethiopia. In the olden days, the climate there was favorable to the nurturing and development of a high type of civilization and produced an Ethiopian so superior to the later types, that they were called by the ancients, “the handsomest men of the primeval world.”

http://www.sacred-texts.com/nam/ca/lly/lly64.htm

The Lore and the Lure of the Yosemite The Indians Their Customs, Legends and Beliefs, and the Story of Yosemite Herbert Earl Wilson
[1922]

Not only Africa but the Yosemite Valley as well…..was affected by climate change and not a motor car or airplane in sight….

‘It is known that since the beginning of time the surface of the earth has undergone various changes brought about by its cooling and shrinking and by internal eruptions and disturbances.

During one of these disturbances the region between the Pacific Ocean and the Rocky Mountains was affected. Here the surface of the earth was broken into great blocks and one of these, four hundred miles long and eighty miles wide, was pushed up at its eastern edge, separating it from the depressed region to the east, leaving a steep scarp, and pulled down at its western edge giving it a gentle slope to the sea.

The streams which flowed in diverse directions before the uplift of this block now were given a definite course flowing down the slope to the west and forming broad shallow valleys. One of these streams was the Merced River which now flows through the Yosemite Valley.

After a great period of time there occurred a second upward thrust which raised the eastern edge of the block to an elevation of several thousand feet making a distinct mountain range, later known as the Sierra Nevada. This second uplift gave to the western side a greater incline so that the Merced River was given enough velocity to enable it, through the millions of years elapsing before a third series of uplifts, to cut a narrower valley within its old broad valley.

The tributary streams which flowed parallel to the range and at right angles to the Merced River were not benefited by the tilting of the block, hence the deeper the main river cut the higher the side streams were left above it. With the broadening and leveling of its bed the Merced lost its cutting power and flowed lazily over the valley floor.

http://www.sacred-texts.com/cla/gibbon/01/daf01026.htm
Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Vol. 1 by Edward Gibbon 1776

We can learn ever so much about the impact of climate change in this book……
Find out how Germany has been affected by CLIMATE CHANGE…….which meant that vines brought to the dinner table were still frozen posing a problem for hungry diners…and find out if the reindeer ever lived in Germany…

‘The modern philosophers of Sweden seem agreed that the waters of the Baltic gradually sink in a regular proportion, which they have ventured to estimate at half an inch every year. Twenty centuries ago the flat country of Scandinavia must have been covered by the sea; while the high lands rose above the waters, as so many islands of various forms and dimensions. Such, indeed, is the notion given us by Mela, Pliny, and Tacitus, of the vast countries round the Baltic. See in the Bibliotheque Raisonnee, tom. xl. and xlv. a large abstract of Dalin’s History of Sweden, composed in the Swedish language.

Diodorus Siculus, l. v. p. 340, edit. Wessel. Herodian, l. vi. p. 221. Jornandes, c. 55. On the banks of the Danube, the wine, when brought to table, was frequently frozen into great lumps, frusta vini. Ovid. Epist. ex Ponto, l. iv. 7, 9, 10. Virgil. Georgic. l. iii. 355. The fact is confirmed by a soldier and a philosopher, who had experienced the intense cold of Thrace. See Xenophon, Anabasis, l. vii. p. 560, edit. Hutchinson. Note: The Danube is constantly frozen over. At Pesth the bridge is usually taken up, and the traffic and communication between the two banks carried on over the ice. The Rhine is likewise in many parts passable at least two years out of five. Winter campaigns are so unusual, in modern warfare, that I recollect but one instance of an army crossing either river on the ice. In the thirty years’ war, (1635,) Jan van Werth, an Imperialist partisan, crossed the Rhine from Heidelberg on the ice with 5000 men, and surprised Spiers. Pichegru’s memorable campaign, (1794-5,) when the freezing of the Meuse and Waal opened Holland to his conquests, and his cavalry and artillery attacked the ships frozen in, on the Zuyder Zee, was in a winter of unprecedented severity. – M. 1845.

Note: The passage of Caesar, “parvis renonum tegumentis utuntur,” is obscure, observes Luden, (Geschichte des Teutschen Volkes,) and insufficient to prove the reindeer to have existed in Germany. It is supported however, by a fragment of Sallust. Germani intectum rhenonibus corpus tegunt. – M. It has been suggested to me that Caesar (as old Gesner supposed) meant the reindeer in the following description. Est bos cervi figura cujus a media fronte inter aures unum cornu existit, excelsius magisque directum (divaricatum, qu ?) his quae nobis nota sunt cornibus. At ejus summo, sicut palmae, rami quam late diffunduntur. Bell. vi. – M. 1845.

http://www.sacred-texts.com/chr/ecf/008/0080496.htm Ante-Nicene Fathers, Vol. VIII The Twelve Patriarchs, Excerpts and Epistles, The Clementina, Apocrypha, Decretals, Memoirs of Edessa and Syriac Documents, Remains of the First Ages

A good source of ancient documentation quite long but this link takes you to the bit about climate…http://www.sacred-texts.com/chr/ecf/008/0080496.htm

Are the Romans responsible for climate change…..read on….

Chapter XXVII.—Doctrine of “Climates” Untenable.

“Moreover, we ought to remember the things which have been mentioned, that in the one country of India there are both persons who feed on human flesh, and persons who abstain even from the flesh of sheep, and birds, and all living creatures; and that the Magusæi marry their mothers and daughters not only in Persia, but that in every nation where they dwell they keep up their incestuous customs. 847 Then, besides, we have mentioned also innumerable nations, which are wholly ignorant of the studies of literature, and also some wise men have changed the laws themselves in several places; and some laws have been voluntarily abandoned, on account of the impossibility of observing them, or on account of their baseness. Assuredly we can easily ascertain how many rulers have changed the laws and customs of nations which they have conquered, and subjected them to their own laws. This is manifestly done by the Romans, who have brought under the Roman law and the civil decrees almost the whole world, and all nations who formerly lived under various laws and customs of their own. It follows, therefore, that the stars of the nations which have been conquered by the Romans have lost their climates and their portions.

Origin of Species, by Charles Darwin, 6th ed. [1872], at sacred-texts.com

Let’s see what Darwin had to say on the issue of climate…but surely he isn’t arguing we can adapt to climate change ….is he???….

‘The capacity of enduring the most different climates by man himself and by his domestic animals, and the fact of the extinct elephant and rhinoceros having formerly endured a glacial climate, whereas the living species are now all tropical or sub-tropical in their habits, ought not to be looked at as anomalies, but as examples of a very common flexibility of constitution, brought, under peculiar circumstances, into action.

How much of the acclimatisation of species to any peculiar climate is due to mere habit, and how much to the natural selection of varieties having different innate constitutions, and how much to both means combined, is an obscure question. That habit or custom has some influence, I must believe, both from analogy and from the incessant advice given in agricultural works, even in the ancient encyclopaedias of China, to be very cautious in transporting animals from one district to another. And as it is not likely that man should have succeeded in selecting so many breeds and sub-breeds with constitutions specially fitted for their own districts, the result must, I think, be due to habit. On the other hand, natural selection would inevitably tend to preserve those individuals which were born with constitutions best adapted to any country which they inhabited.

http://www.sacred-texts.com/chr/tbr/tbr094.htm
Now lets visit and old treatise named the Bible and see what Revelations we can find there …..millennia old I might add, that inform us of how old climate change actually is….THE NEW EARTH.
Rev. 21:1.
“Thus saith the Lord that created the heavens; He is God; that formed the earth and made it; He established it, He created it not a waste, He formed it to be inhabited.” See also Jer. 4:23-26. What caused the earth to become a waste after its original creation is not expressly stated. Some awful catastrophe must have befallen it. It is clear from the account of the Fall of Adam and Eve that sin existed before man was created. The inference is from Ezek. 28:12-19, and Isa. 14:12-14, that when the earth was originally created that Satan was placed in charge of it, and that he and his angels rebelled and led astray the inhabitants of the Original Earth, and that the Pre-Adamite race are now the demons who as they are permitted liberty seek to re-embody themselves in human beings that they may again dwell on the earth. It is clear that the Original Earth was inhabited, or God would not have blessed Adam and Eve and said–“Be fruitful and multiply and REPLENISH the Earth.” Gen. 1:28. It does not follow however that those inhabitants were human beings like ourselves. No human remains have been found ante-dating the creation of man.

http://www.sacred-texts.com/chr/tbr/index.htm The Book of Revelationby Clarence Larkin [1919]

‘Is there a conflict between the biblical and scientific theories of the origin of our planet and climate change??

There can be no question but what the Earth in its original formation required millions of years. There is ample time in the statement of Gen. 1:1 that–“In the BEGINNING God ‘created’ the heaven and the earth,” for all the “Geologic Ages” that science declares were necessary for the creation of the Earth. There is no conflict between the Bible and Science as to the time occupied in the formation of the Earth.

Happily, we are told not to worry about the earth being overcome by a natural process of climate change because:-
‘NEW HEAVEN AND A NEW EARTH.” 2. Pet. 3:13. These words of Peter reveal the fact that this Earth is to pass through 3 stages. First the Original Earth that “perished” by WATER. Second the Earth that is now, that is to be renovated or cleansed by FIRE. And the New Earth that is to exist forever. See the Chart “The Three Stages of the Earth.”

Goodness me…. a new earth that will last forever……..amazing…

“And I saw a new Heaven and a NEW EARTH: for the first heaven and the first earth were passed away; and there was no more sea.”

http://www.sacred-texts.com/piri/index.htm
Why haven’t we got a map to show how the UK was once joined to mainland Europe and other geo changes that would give us a better idea about how climate change is a natural process, pre the motor car, air travel and energy giants trying to charge us more for setting up sustainable fuel systems that none of us will be able to afford?

Such a map does exist though. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piri_Reis_map
The Piri Reis map is a patchwork which has gaps (most notably the Drake Passage between South America and Antarctica) which can be explained as non-overlapping areas between the source maps. Maps of the Ancient Sea Kings and Hapgood’s other book The Earth’s Shifting Crust, in which he advanced a theory of polar shifts, are controversial, and earned him the scorn of official academia.

http://www.sacred-texts.com/earth/jei/jei14.htm
A Journey to the Earth’s Interior
by Marshall B. Gardner
[1920]

Finally, in 1999 the http://www.dailycal.org/ featured an article by Westyn Branch-Elliman entitled Longterm Climate Change Due to Astronomical Cycles.

‘’Climate cycles on Earth are directly related to astronomical cycles in the solar system, UC Berkeley researchers have found.
The team of scientists collected evidence of ice ages stored at the bottom of the oceans and found that there is a distinct pattern of cycles – an ice age that lasts approximately 90,000 years is followed by a warm period that lasts approximately 10,000 years.
“Astronomy is responsible for almost all climate changes,” said project leader Richard Muller, a UC Berkeley professor of physics and a researcher at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratories. ‘’
In addition, the researchers examined the astronomical cycles caused by variations in the tilt of Earth’s orbit. They found that the tilt cycles match the cycles of the ice ages.
“When we look at ancient records of planets, these astronomical cycles appear in the climate record,” Muller said.
Due to gravitational forces caused by other planets, the tilt of Earth’s orbit changes depending on the position of these other objects.
“The orbit of the earth around the sun is constantly changing due to the gravitational effects of other planets,” Muller said.
The law of gravitation is dependent on the distance between two objects. When objects are closer together, they exert stronger forces on each other than when they are farther apart.
Other planets orbit the sun, so their proximity to Earth varies over time. Due to gravitational forces exerted by other planets, the tilt of Earth’s orbit changes in a cyclic pattern.
“By using the laws of physics, we can figure out what kind of cycles (other planets) induce on the orbit of the earth,” Muller said.
The two planets that most strongly affect the tilt of Earth’s orbit are Jupiter and Venus, Muller said. Jupiter is large an massive, so the planet exerts strong gravitational forces on Earth. Venus is relatively close to Earth, so it also has a large effect on the tilt of the orbit.
“Jupiter, which is the biggest planet (in our solar system), is the most important,” Muller said. “The other planet that is very important is Venus. Even though it is much smaller, it comes much closer to the earth.”

…………………………………………………. All of civilization has taken place during this short and relatively unusual warm period, which won’t last very long,” Muller said. “We have been through 10,000 (years of this warm period), so some time in the next 10,000 years, another ice age will arrive.”

FOOTNOTE Astro-meteorologists have been watching planetary cycles down millennia using satellite technology to forecast weather and still do so proficiently and accurately today.

SUMMER WEATHER 2016 West Yorkshire and Yonder

     Long Range Summer Forecast 2016 West Yorkshire and Yonder UK

 

These forecasts are delivered using ancient satellite technology, tried and tested for millennia and results from such usage first recorded on Antelope Tusks a couple of millennia ago, with method used still working and used by many skilled astro meteorologists who deliver very accurate long range seasonal forecasts for you to plan your season with.

 

 

 

SUMMER WEATHER 20016 Overview

Summer Season with some highs to come but interrupted by bad bits. 27^th June -4^th July sees some highs arriving but quick flash floods to some areas as a result. . The real high seem likely to develop for W Yorks by  30^th-31^st July and 30^th August.

 

Around 14^th July tell me if you get the tornado or wind funnel I forecast, for as they are not as spectacular as those in Tornado Alley, US, too few of these get reported in the UK, yet we know they arrive here.

 

I also see a seismic event for UK around 12^th July, so will be watching for news of this as well as for 2^nd-10th August showing a seismic outlook for the UK with 1W45 long from Shetland down to W Sussex singled out for source of origin, not sure which latitude but both extremes vulnerable Shetland region gets my vote. Some rumblings of tectonic plates to Celtic Sea also.

Meanwhile Papua New Guinea is exposed to seismicity this phase too.153E30 I’ll be watching out for this one.

26^th July-2^nd August sees more summer highs but also a drill, spill and kill incident somewhere off either the West of Orkney, the Tay region or Caernarfon area,  3 deg west longitude. 18th-25th August repeats DRILLS, SPILLS and KILLS again, yes it’s that time of year.  Offshore W of Shetland, to North Sea and offshore to English Channel 1-2 W long, but may be felt down t/out GB.I expect a few cetaceans on beach too……………………Apologies for so little time to track this and be more specific and to be truthful I always hope I am totally wrong about such forecasts……………………

Heavy rains expected to hit the west by 24^th August travelling to W Yorks by 25^th with highs following as mentioned earlier.

Venus at equinox 1st September augurs  early Autumn cooling, followed by the traditional cyclical start of the Autumn 22^nd  Sept at Sun’s equinox seeing very heavy rain arriving.

 

20th-27th June

 

The good news is this solstice, a beautiful Azores High is forming out in the Atlantic, so book a plane for there now….because the bad news is off the West coast of England a low is developing, stopping the high from coming our way. Oh dear..

 

Solstice day usually does bring some unsettled weather and 2016 summer solstice day 20th,  is no exception.

 

However, as it operates on a Full Moon day, we can expect some better conditions in the evenings of the first few days at least, but don’t put your brolly to bed just yet. Some disturbances at high altitudes mean the Helm Winds can knock you back on High Cup Nick, Pennine, Moor, or mountain pathways, and radio hams could find disturbances from static in isolated spots. Air and water travel may also see some rocky moments as highs vie with lows, and winds are erratic.

Seasonal temps expected to vary, but on the cool side to begin the season, and likely as not, throughout.

20th  Some lows with easterly gloom round, but generally unsettled outlook today as solsticial atmospherics rule. Some rain could be moving eastwards and some mists to valleys and lowlands expected. A few northerly attempts to try clear away any gloom and cloud, but I don’t expect persistent sun today.

21st Temps varying, some showery attempts likely but brief and scattered, cloud around too. Better by evening.

22nd Temps varying again, but cooler range prevail. High humidity, static  but some sunny intervals as clouds scurry by.

23rd Potentially the best date to warm your hands on the evening barbecue, sun, cloud around during the day.

24th Not much change from yesterday but could be more clouds to west and potential for a few showery bits over here too.

25th Looks like the threat of heavy showers begins to actualise today and on 26th.

26th I expect some heavy showers from mid morning and some strong whippy westerlies come in with these.

27th Sees the moon on the equator so weather patterns continue eastwards for a few days, but temps will begin to feel more summery from now on. Very sporadic winds with gusts and high speed on exposed areas, see the intro again for warnings given.  Cloud around but winds trying to move them on.

27th June-4th July

I expect some record highs for the season along with thundery and lightening outbreaks which will accompany heat moving northwards over coming eight days. Thunderstorms travel east. Any sudden heavy downpours will make way for brighter conditions, with flash floods to valleys expected to quickly pass over on western areas.

Mists and cloud predominantly in western shores. 30th looks the best of this block of weather outcomes.

 

27th  Sultry but winds are still high, gusty on high pathways, in the north mostly.

Intermittent sudden sporadic showery outbursts midnight to early am 28th.

28th and 29th look like the thundery outburst arrive after midnight as temps rise. West Yorks is in their pathway so I don’t expect to escape the onslaught. The days clear by mid day, so afternoons and evenings are generally better for outdoors.

30^th Fingers crossed all signs are for a more serene and reliable outlook with temps rising and some sunny weather to enjoy today and for 1st.

2nd Sultry, humid with temps still rising, could bring another static outburst early am before sunrise, not ruling out thunderstorms either, and rainy stuff on 3rd for many areas W Y and far beyond.

3rd –4th Little breeze but some blue skies likely once the wet stuff goes, slowly cooling after 4th.

 

4th-12th July

Highs stay in the Mid Atlantic sadly and weather systems in GB begin their journey from NW to SE over this phase.

Looks like some pollution across Europe continues to make its presence felt east of our borders (have we got any?)

Heavy outbursts of rain could hit NW regions of England and beyond but may not result in heavy flooding.

 

4th-5th Could see rain breaking out, heavy at times to NW and west coast regions, and low lying areas. Mists accompany. Fairer to the north with any residual storms of last phase slowly dying as they move SE direction.

6th Some noisy eerie breezy stuff but fair conditions for us and any rainy bits to the west begin to fizzle out as they travel over to our way and S. Easterly

7th  Less windy, some clearing skies, but temps on the cool side and any scattered outbreaks will be brief sporadic and around mid morning.

8th Northerlies active and clearing up conditions, some gloomy weather to the west, clouds mists to the east but better outlook by mid day, cloudier evening.

9th Dry day with sunshine and sweet breezes

10th Some gusty winds about today, westerly, some quick showery bursts could accompany, cooling temps, cloudy am but some sun spells.

11th Strong NW winds arise taking weather down south with it. Spurts of very gusty winds on high lands. Some cloud breaks with sun spells with this system.

12th Still windy, cooler and cloud around much like yesterday.

12th-19th July

 

Breezy windy, wet, cooler, highs to SW travelling further southwards. Unsettled for a few days with potential tornado or wind funnel to Midlands.

Could be a seismic event for us around the 12th too.

 

12th  Very unsettled atmosphere with potential rainy outbursts. Cloud around and mists lingering to some areas. Any rain arrives late evening.

13th Scattered showers before sunrise have a cooling effect on temps, sun plus cloud during the day, clearing skies by evening, but cloudier 9-10pm onwards and rain falling, mists likely.

14th Unsettled again, winds gusty westerly, tornado or wind spouts expected today to NE Scotland and or Midlands. Winds stronger on high ground to North Sunshine and cloud, dry but short scattered spells of rain by 8pm onwards.

15th Some gusty stuff, clearer skies, cool start early am. Showery by 9-10 am but soft breezes for us to dry out  by mid day. Some lightening releases static. Sun and clouds around.

17th Cool overnight into early am, more mod after sunrise and looks like weather stays to be fair for next few days…HURRAH!

26th July– 2nd August

 

This phase sees a drill, spill and kill incident somewhere off either the West of Orkney, the Tay region or Caernarfon area,  3 deg west longitude.

 

I always wonder when forecasting these, how much sperm whales and dolphins cost to replace….

The three quarter moon often brings in turbulence so best not book a getaway but even if I’m too late with the warning , all wont be lost with some good days to brighten up the phase.

Not a bad week for a British summer, when all is taken into consideration, but some interruptions of good weather expected, but they will be quick unless otherwise forecast. 29th singled out for rainy stuff and 30th-31st gets the highs.

Highs roll out in style to the east of GB, but inland there will be some developing too, with 30th singled out for our region.

Some sudden changes in temps can vary them over the phase so be assured that if it gets cool after rain the sun will soon return to warm you up again.

These are the high temps of Dog Days when Romans were aware there could be searing heat, prolonged, but difficult if on a war march. Hard times  for dogs too if tarmac or concrete gets hot, so take care of your dog and don’t leave it in the car on hot days.

A quick tour of these days:

Looks good fine and summery 26th- 28th, with sudden abrupt wind changes and erratic gusts kicking in by 27th

28th looks potentially showery with potential for sporadic isolated hail and sleet, but these won’t stay around and often leave sunny skies in their wake.

29th Oh dear I can guarantee rain, for many GB places in the form of scattered electrical showers. Some energetic gusties around too, with high spots and high altitudes affected.

30th continues as yesterday but the highs are high today, so some good temps as well as sunshine

31st The heat continues

1st August rain potential…sorry this always happens after a hot spell doesn’t it, but it won’t stay around, by sunset it will be better, but sunshine around as well today. Hail and sleet spells look likely to interrupt play and I’m not ruling out quick smattering of snow on very high northern parts……lots of condensation around due to cold air at start of day.

2nd New Moon, good weather sunrise to sunset usually but let’s look at the charts and see shall we……read on

2nd-10th August

A seismic outlook for the UK with 1W45 long from Shetland down to W Sussex singled out for source of origin, not sure which latitude but both extremes vulnerable Shetland region gets my vote. Some rumblings of tectonic plates to Celtic Sea also.

Meanwhile Papua New Guinea is exposed to seismicity this phase too.153E30 I’ll be watching out for this one.

2nd unsettled outlook as seismicity rules, temps still summery but cooling

3rd Sun and cloud around

4th-5th same as yesterday temps still lowering

6th no rain today…..hopefully….can’t see any….weather continues a downward trend..

7th some threat of precipitation with  NW more likely region for it

8th winds around or breezes blowing clouds over bog standard weather for next few days as systems migrate into southern regions.

 

10th-18th August

 

Just a quick tour for these days.

I’m not expecting a run of good weather, in fact some rainy spells could linger 11-12th early am -mid day time,  and arrive again  by 17th with temps cooling as a result. The 12th sees wet weather moving southwards as the low sinks, and

cool temps rule. The 13th sees the weather attempt to clean up a little after mid day. I don’t expect highs this phase, but very ordinary summer season weather.

13th-14th seems like  the best of the bunch with some blue skies and broken cloud, expect good conditions for photography, but rain could break out on high places inland, with mists around watery places. Some calmer spells around for these days.

15th16th uneventful but 16th-17th could see some hail or sporadic outbursts early am, though some clearer skies with sun spells later.

18th-25th August

DRILLS, SPILLS and KILLS again, yes it’s that time of year.

Offshore W of Shetland, to North Sea and offshore to English Channel 1-2 W long, but may be felt down t/out GB

I expect a few cetaceans on beach too……………………

Temps being climbing but don’t expect too much. Worst of weather to second half of phase.

 

Barbecue time for first few days, but get the heater out……………..

18th-19 th Erratic NW, gusty on high ground, sunshine with clouds scurrying by.

20th -21st Unsettled sunshine, clouds and sporadic short sharp showers around but they won’t linger. Midnight to mid day is likeliest time, evenings generally brighter after 8pm.  22nd sees some rise in temps but this brings some static outbursts along with it

23rd better outlook but don’t take any good weather for granted

24-25th Much friction weather wise with highs battling lows, warmer outlook but some very heavy rain to west travels this way by 25th. The NW Cumbria, Scotland and Wales get the worst of the downpours from 24th.

25th August -1st Sept

 

Guaranteed, no Azores High, BUT, temp do get pleasantly better than last week and we have at least 2 glorious days to come in this phase.

Some squally conditions continue at the start with high altitudes most affected. These will die down after first 2 days.

 

 

25th, as above but this could pass over by late pm, so not all the day is lost, some blue sky and cloud could make itself felt.

26th Humidity rules after rainy cloud burst around mid night, but the day may develop into a better one as a result, There is a counter clockwise flow of static which delivers quick sometimes heavy. downpours for a few days, but looks like ours is over and done with early this morning.

27th Very high seasonal temps today HURRAH the glorious weather arrives so put on your summer stuff to make the most of it over next few days…………………..

30th could see mists and haze coming out in response o higher temps with 31st being sultry. Slight cooling by 1st…….

1st -9^th Sept

Apologies for a quick tour, time restrictions apply…..

Pollution rests out in the Atlantic, probably residue from the drills spills and kills I mentioned earlier.

Venus is  equinoctial on 1st, but seems likely to affect us with hazes and more cloud around but by 7th she heralds lower temps with a cold front….

 

1st As previous, cool, rain in East still continuing, a fair day could break out in W Yorks

2nd Dry day, mists and hazes with sun behind cloud and some strong northerlies around

3rd brighter outlook

4th Rain, heavy at times from mid morning into afternoon

5th Mists, cloud and haze sun spells …perhaps

6th Sporadic rain, hail and sleet spells by 10pm, cloud around some sun spells during day

7th Cold front keeping things chilly less sunshine to keep us warm

8th unsettled but it will rain for sure

9th Rain likely to NW and strong high altitude winds running around icy on high places, gusty in stages

9th-16th Sept

Misty to Western regions and flash floods could be circulating as lowlands receive some heavy rainfall

9th Rain could be continuing from 8th until early morning, but drier outlook for later in the day

10th Cool, cloudy some northerlies trying to clear away the bad outbreak.

11th Cloud, potentially some sunshine but better by evening

 

12th Gusty some haze and mists around and lingering, spartan intermittent showers around mid am and later, but some sun spells too as gusts scurry clouds along.

13th Static, hail or sleet short and sharp overnight better outlook from  mid day.

14th Rain to North clouds, some sunshine late afternoon after sporadic showers.

15th  Rain coming could see some sun with clouds.

 

 

16th -22nd

The Full Moon will clear away the worst of the weather with some fairer evenings to enjoy, though the outlook is not good. I expect heavy levels of rain, more flash floods and a gloomy time.

21st will rain all day………………………………..and 22nd is equinoctial so very unsettled…..lots of wet stuff about.

 

I expect at least 80% + accuracy, and could do better if days were on 72 hours long…….sigh………………..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SPRING 2016 West Yorks and Yonder

Astro meteorology has been around for a couple of millennia and hasn’t brought any harm to the planet. Astro mets use tried and tested and highly honed techniques, along with fantastic insights from George McCormack who used Pearce, Goad and other brilliant astro mets, to add to Kepler and ancient mariner laws of celestial-terrestrial converging , to give long range forecasts of a meteorological nature.

We use satellite technology that has been around since time began and you can be very assured that long range astro meteorological forecasting doesn’t harm the planet at all.

Spring: West Yorks and Yonder 2016

The best outlook arrives 14th April when we see some nice spring days, but this is followed by an Arctic all time low to freeze any bedding plants, noses and toes, so beware the sudden seasonal turnaround.I don’t see any prolonged spells of great weather for May and June, and the floods seem likely to return at the run up to Summer solstice, but hopefully I might be wrong….

Spring is on time this year, but it may feel weathergeddon has broken out as very unsettled conditions continue.
There is a meteorological hit, and potentially man made disaster around the Orkney Islands, from the start of the equinox, sometimes this has been either military or law enforcement incident, and pollution around those parts, could be another drill explosion or sperm whale/ drillkill from the start of the season.

 

20th-23rd March

The Western areas gather warmth but this creates moisture as well, with eastern parts of GB meeting precipitation created by it over the coming days.
Flooding to some regions expected due to heavy levels of rainy outbursts, my forecast is for these to travel south easterly from NW Scotland moving SE to northern England and southwards, to eastern parts. I don’t see floods to Cumbria from this weather outburst for this phase, though already saturated areas wont be exempt from the assault. North Yorks and Northumberland more prone to flood news and Derry region of Ireland seems to get some bad weather too for this phase.

20th Very unsettled with sporadic strong gusty winds mists, fogs and mizzles from around sunrise, could be some sun attempts during the day but varying weather patterns move faster over next few days from NW to SE

21st Pluvial conditions with highs levels of mist, fogs and mizzles expected to linger, heavy rain from the start of the day and not much sun around as clouds linger to obscure it and mists and fogs in valleys cling to watery places. The evening is a better bet for slightly clearer skies, but no promises as this weather remains unsettled.

22nd Rainy outbursts come in with warm air from the west, heavy at the start of day, news of very strong winds. Flooding to already saturated areas

 

23rd-31st March

The Full Moon phase is normally the time of month when we get bad weather being moved away for a few days but this is and equatorial Full Moon and might operate slightly differently to herald some disturbed atmospherics as Spring birthing pains continue.

Some high tides may create sea disturbance to West of Ireland there is also high seismicity operative.

I see clearer skies but cold to eastern parts but some windy outbursts.

From the outset the damp air can create mould conditions for those gardeners with seeds or young plants growing.

An ancient meteorologist Junctinius tells us, when the eclipse is in an air sign there is scarcity, pestilence and tempests….so beware all you gardeners!

23rd Sporadic spurts often gusty in nature and westerly. A wet start but weather systems moving quickly along so will be an all weather day today though some breaks in the cloud will allow the sun to peek through now and again to say hello.. Expect gentle breezes to low lying areas but colder stronger winds to slightly higher altitudes. By evening some cold and gloomy conditions could hang around along with fogs and mists
24th Strong gusty westerlies today and winds could scatter some showers around a finer outlook by evening and clearer skies but this herald’s frost and strong ozone. Sleet and hail outbreaks 6-9 pm, localised, will leave likelihood of overnight frosts.
25th Some hope for warmer temps after a nippy start to the day, so some ice will begin to thaw. Finer outlook till mid day with mid afternoon showery outbursts mid afternoon, more prevalent to the north. Cloud around overnight.

26th High humidity with mists and cloud around but this is marked down as a nice Spring day on my calendar.
27th Cool frosty start again and another day like yesterday.
28th-30th Fair afternoon and evenings but mists to low lying areas and cloud forming later by evening so unsettled, but mostly dry.
30th Fair weather to the north lower temps expected but some showery outbursts likely from mid afternoon
31st This looks very exciting and wild and windy with strong gales at high speed along corridors to the NW/Scotland to keep everyone engaged with the weather dramas.

 

31st March-7th April

Gales at high speed across high transport routes will create traffic disruptions for a few days, air traffic and bridges affected too to NW/Scotland. Communication systems will also be affected along with electricity routes. Stormy conditions to northern parts.
Spring temps higher to the eastern regions.

31st. As previous, it looks dry for W Yorks but very very blustery, though there will be some warmth from sunshine letting us know Spring is here.
1st-4th Wont see settled weather but will have some dry days with occasionally gusty winds and breezes. Temps average for Spring though some cool crisp outlook for 2nd, fairer conditions stay in North England
4th Some potential for rainy outbreaks later in the day along with whippy westerlies. Some pollution expected to N Eastern areas.
5th-7th Very unsettled outlook, low temps, cloud around but also some accompanying fair spring weather in the mix

 

7th-14th April

The New Moon on 7th is perigee and closest of the year, and with Moon equatorial we normally would expect some entertaining weather dramas, but this being April it looks less like fireworks and more like damp squib.

From Hebrides to Spain via the Irish Sea looks like having mists and mellow fruitfulness, and more cloud developing as well as sea frets.

Some sea turbulence to sea far South West of Ireland for a few days, and some of it could hit NW Scotland but it is seafarers that need to take heed and listen to shipping forecasts.

7th Shows gentle breezes and spring like conditions.
8th Some mists or showers around mid morning but also some fine spring weather as Venus heads northward in declination, promising a Spring to put winter behind us.
9th Cool crisp with some blue skies to enjoy
10th Northern weather may change a little now, mists around, milder temps and some occasional gusty breezes. Any showers arrive from 4pm.
11th similar to yesterday
12th -13th Temps rising seasonally higher sun with cloud and mist potential, northerlies active, but there may also be some very heavy showery outbreaks too as heavens flood gates open, this seems more heavy to southern areas such Somerset regions, but Wales may also see some tidal surge too.
14th Mists and mizzles with northerlies trying to clear up worst of the weather.

 

14th-22nd April

This phase looks pleasantly spring like with some good outdoor weather to enjoy.
The Mid Atlantic looks choppy from the start and sea NW of Scotland seems rough with some precipitation travelling into north parts but doesn’t seems strong enough to reach further than North of England by 16th A second weather system to reach NW Scotland arrives a little more turbulence, but with not enough strength to travel further SE into England.

London is hit by mists and fogs that could disrupt air travel from 14th with a fine outlook ahead of that to the east.

14th The start of day could see mists to valleys but eventually brings a fine Spring outlook with blue skies and white fluffy clouds although some strong blustery winds and breezes could interrupt at sporadic intervals.
15th Continues yesterday’s trend with some cooling off by late evening after some warmth during the day
16th Some showery release potentially just April showers, localised hail but clearing after mid day

17th sun with cloud during the day, generally fair outlook
18th Fair outlook again but the winds could get more lively turning gusty over next few days
19th-22nd are likely to bring better temps to the south England with seasonal rise in warmth, gusty conditions but for us a continuing trend of fair Spring weather with warmth.
 

22nd April-30th April

This phase sees a direct contrast to the pleasant days previously enjoyed. Winter returns with a vengeance to assault Spring and we can expect Arctic lows fetching a big freeze to your nose and toes. You will experience sudden deep steep drops in temps so don’t take bright sunshine for granted. Highly likely that overnight gives clear skies but that means that little warmth is allowed to develop.

22nd Cold and penetrating some damp, drizzle and mizzle along with hail sleet and snow sporadic outbursts, the latter to high regions the former to low lying valleys. Gusty westerlies provide extra cutting chill and can be quite lashing at times.

23rd Frosty overnight and icy with more intermittent sporadic and localised varying wintery showery outbursts to mid morning Exceedingly cold to NW and high places.
24th Breathtakingly cold an intense cold front reigns and higher precipitation will hit the south of England with magnetic disturbances interfering with some comms.
25th -27th continues cold and frosty along with icy cold breezes. From today some rivers may be flooding and western regions look likely to be swamped on flood plains. Mists hover around watering places in lowlands while freezing fogs will arrive to high areas.

28th A tiny bit milder weather outlook takes the edge off the breathtaking chilly factor; clouds and mists but some sunshine might break through if we get lucky!….
29th Frosts less widespread, some thawing out and mists hide sunshine and easterlies keep it still a little bit gloomy.

30th Milder temps, less harsh and some sunshine around but could see some showery outbursts by evening

 

30th April-6th May
Rain forms out to sea NW coast of Scotland, clearly we need a rain carrier out there to catch it before it arrives….
Normally systems like this take two days to come inland so precipitation for NW Scotland travelling SE over two days, but I think it stays north of W Yorks and yonder.
Temps move towards less intense and thawing begins as moderating influences grow stronger towards the end of this phase.

30th as above with some mists or fogs around lingering over valleys with sun finding it hard to move them along.

1st Cloud around, hazes and mists with atmospherics disturbed for the next few days at high altitudes to the north so mountaineering radio addicts beware….your frequencies may freeze up!

2nd Rain arrives to Scotland’s shores as mentioned earlier. West Yorks get milder temps moving over but it still feels a bit muggy, so can’t see how good the day will turn out however…it wont be as bad as last week!
3rd HURRAH. Nice day, but some showery potential later in the afternoon or evening depending upon where you live for example Lancashire folk get these systems a few hours before we do………..
4th-6th The weather moves along slowly now, some sunshine and haziness and cloud around but temps improve all the time.
6th Some wild funnels of high speed corridors of wind could create wind funnels or mini tornadoes to W Midlands and lower SW belts. News of avalanches expected as thawing completes the phase.

 

6th May- 13th May

I think for W Yorks this could be a dry phase with little rain to spoil play. For places yonder some drama could roll out in the form of static outbursts, thunder, lightening or both from 7th-9th as temperatures rise.

6th As above, fairer to S Eng, with mists clouds or mizzles drizzles to north around 4pm. A dry sunny outlook for W Yorks till evening
7th Looks like another spring day to enjoy with any rain coming overnight, some migrating static outbursts circulating generally yonder to W Yorks
8th Static again to South and north but any precipitation is soon forgotten as seasonal temps rise with likelihood of a fine day to come. The NW looks the worst hit early morning, it may try pour some remaining rain here, but the outlook is for a seasonally warm Spring day for W Yorks
9th Temps peaking, calm misty start, sultry weather in warmth
10th Looks like a serene day with blue skies and little clouds and sun shining down….nice day
11th Some cloud around but still nearly as good as yesterday. Before mid night would be time when any rain might spoil play, could just be more clouds forming
12th -13th Only mists spoil these days with sun and haziness likely, breezy southerlies active. Temps adjust to lower slightly.
13th-21st May

A rather drill tour of weather for this phase with temps lowering from the highs of previous days reaching quite damp and chilly for the last part as precipitation cools the air, and by 20th singled out for coolest of the phase.
The second half changes in more unsettled conditions with precipitation upsetting some regions, more to the Northern parts.

13th-15th starts with some likelihood of static and mists from 13th, but sunshine likely during the daytime. 14th brings in some southerly breezes and moderate temps prevail, some sunshine during the day and same on 15th which looks fairer with warmth from the sun.

16th could bring short sharp showery unsettled weather forming, evening most likely time for some quick showery outbursts for W Yorks, as well as at the start of the day. Some sunshine will be around during the day and this trend continues into 17th
18th more showery intervals but these are continuing sporadic and may miss some localities. I expect some record rainfall to some far north western areas from Scotland down to Cumbria. These are isolated micros. We could see some of these waft over in the afternoon–heavy to some localities.
19th The weather begins to see lower range of temps and generally fair for us but interrupted by some intermittent outbursts of widely scattered precipitation for some areas.
20th Mists and cloud with cooler range of temps making things a little chilly and damp. Unsettled weather, misty or cloudy around sunrise with some sunshine later in the morning. Very heavy showers expected for the NW regions for the afternoon, some residue here but clearing late evening.
21st Hopefully today sees off the gloomier stuff but it does augur cool spring temps, but some better weather outdoors breaking out.
 

21st-29th May

This phase is very difficult to report due to so many conflicting weather patterns and foul battling fair with few seeming to win out ultimately.
Static outbursts migrates fetching threats of thunder and lightening but rain may or not follow depending on your terrain and location. For sure lower valleys and river clearly show stress by the end of the phase with the potential for high levels of rivers bursting banks and low lying roads under water.
Northerlies operate the first few days trying to settle the weather affair and see off precipitation.

No guarantees for this forecast due to complex and conflicting systems operating.

Basically 21st- 24th brings the fairer outlook but sunshine and warmth can soon disappear and sudden outbursts may threaten the day. 22nd seems to be dry and temps pleasantly rising, this creates more static and humidity, but winds get stirred and some lightening or thundery outbreaks in some regions, may or not bring rain. My bet is on dry for us in W Yorks. 23rd looks a little cloudy perhaps even gloomy but the skies should clear overnight. 24th seems slightly milder with some warmth from the sun after mid day

25th South westerly mix fetches threat of mists, mizzles and some muggy conditions with showery outbursts likely late afternoon. Winds more westerly and gusty later in the day and into following day
26th Seems like a dry day for us rumbles of thunder to distance, along with lightening potential but the NW regions are on the receiving end of the real outpouring
27th a little turbulent; some mists and clouds but a warming factor around to create hope of better things to come, the sun could shine through in stages.
28th Seems like a dry day for us but certainly some precipitation is threatening to head our way and could arrive by evening and continue into the next day turning quite heavy especially to NE Scotland down into Cumbria and southwards, leaving rivers bursting banks and roads in valleys a little bit wet. Buy a canoe!

It’s great to be wrong with a forecast such as this turning into wonderfully dry weather…..but I don’t think that will happen yet…..but hey Mars is perigee now and usually brings in highs….read on….

 

29th May-5th June

With Mars now perigee on 30th we normally encounter drought and parching temps so during this phase we will encounter some rising temps drawn up from the South gradually as the phase unfolds.
The South Eng gets the higher ranges from 29th and these gradually move northwards over the coming days.
There are some wonderful features for W Yorks for this phase, much needed after the turbulence rocking around last week. Drought seems more likely for longitudes 2 degrees west of us and places around Auchterarder, Edin and Salcombe Glasgow/Dumfries seem likely to enjoy better, drier weather and higher temps…lucky you!

29th Wet outpourings continue, as before, with rivers at high levels. Around 4pm more rain likely to W Yorks after a cloudy day with some sun around.. Mod temps for the season.

30th Cloudy with sunshine but misty to watery places in valleys, mists and hazes develop evening and early morning as temps rise.

31st–4th looks very fine indeed with some pleasant warmth from the sun, but also some high humidity as residual precipitation dries out. Warmth drawing further northwards from southern regions over these days, as a slow moving weather continues to prevail.

4th Expect some heavy rain arriving for us during the evening after a fair warm sunny day with some cloud around. This will be heavy rainfall continuing into the 5th.

5th a fairer outlook only after mid day….sorry….new rainfall levels established for some western parts for this time of year….

 

Prettiest Village in Yorkshire Dales

5th-12th June

Sadly it looks like the return to similar weather at the Winter solstice run up, with floodageddon all over again.
Hopefully I am SOOOOoooooo wrong, but I don’t think I am…………….
Lowlands/valleys and river ways, misty and hazy during the daytime and fogs developing at night time.

Flash floods keep on coming and if you are in an area outside of NW and SE Scotland and Eng then you might escape the worst of the very wet weather. Flash floods to Western parts at the beginning, move to NE parts see 10-12th

5th as before with heavy precipitation moving around the UK migrating up through northern England into Scotland by 6th W Yorks sees some better weather after rain subsides by evening.

6th Temps reach seasonal highs, but there is a lot of humidity around. Mists may hide sun till mid day.

7th Looks like a better bet weather wise with some sunshine and warmth
8th turn of the day sees heavy rain again but by breakfast onwards sunshine with cloud around, but muggy
9th Sunshine and cloud, south easterlies keep it a bit gloomy but some gusty spurts of westerlies move it along.
10th-12th Looks reasonable for W Yorks but flash flooding to NE Scotland/ England North Yorks too keeps things sombre
12th turns into a nice Spring day…aha if only summer were here…..don’t worry it is coming…..

 

My Favourite Place Friar’s Crag Walk

12th-20th June

I expect more flash floods due to heavy waterlogged areas continuing to get heavy flash downpours NE Scotland/England Northern Yorkshire, Cumbria and Wales from the outset. rivers overflowing and flooding roads and routes in valleys flooded too….all good fun if you are wearing wellies, but not if your home is flooded again, so a great time to book a helping hol with those who are worn out with water…..

Some strong winds along narrow corridors and in high places with likelihood of wind funnels and I expect some tornado to West Midland region around 18th.

For W Yorks and Yonder the 13th June is wet for us around sunrise but for days after it will be very windy with gusty westerlies operative and W Yorks moves towards the solstice on 20th with better drier weather but Summer is coming in on a boat, just like the Egyptian Rah, so expect more stormy waves as the sun rises above the equator….what will summer bring I wonder……

WINTER WEATHER W YORKS N YONDER 2016

Winter 2016

The lookout at this stage of the year end of 2015, time of finalising the forecast, doesn’t look good for the NW and Cumbrian regions where mists, very high humidity and floods may still be causing a damp and chilly surround.

The year starts Wet Wet Wet and looks set to continue the trend along with auguring some lower temps for the rest of the year to
come………camping may become a thing of the past…..for few years at least.

16th-24th Jan is a very eventful phase with headlines of EQ, pollution and mud/land/snow slides. Beginning of February is a bit challenging, but 10th Feb is great for outdoor pursuits.

22nd Feb-1st March look more settled with the planet Jupiter warding off any nasties out in the Mid Atlantic.

9th March onwards is a phase to watch for due to a return to conditions seen 3rd Dec onwards when weather wars broke out fostering many floods. While circa 6th March is very EQ sensitive.

This reminds me of old interpretations of ancient books that morphed into ”and prehistoric man worshipped their gods” …..errr……..of course enlightened people without prejudice or hidden agendas know the correct translation is ”they studied the planets. ”Astro mets use the ancient science of satellite technology to produce their forecasts long range, as done since Paleolithic times on antler bone, and highly honed in Sumerian and Babylonian times, then by Kepler and subsequently by intelligent long range forecasters such as McCormack and Pearce.

 

2nd-9th Jan

The final throes of 2015 will have seen roads with the usual rivulets forming in dips, drains and culverts yet again belching under the strain, and brolly and raincoat sales rising.

The first half of this phase has some strong but variable winds around but also mists and mizzles to add to the mix.

2nd Sees temps trying to get milder but breeziness offers wind chills. Mists and mizzles around with fogs, thicker mists to the west of the region, cloud around once the mists clear away
Mid morning seems to be slightly clearer but some showery outbursts arrive by 4pm into evening with sudden winter showers, sleet and hail. Mists may turn foggy if you are travelling beware. This trend continues into early 3rd

3rd-5th brings in some spurts of whipping gusts and more lusty showery outbursts into the evening with a gloominess beginning to roll into cloudier skies. Sporadic Gustiness increases on 4th and it is the 6th when this dies down. The north is much cloudier than the south of England and some stormy turbulence likely for northern UK over next few days.

6th-7th is less unsettled though some breeziness prevails. Showers follow early mistiness, mid day on 6th, temps seasonally mild leading to gloomy outlook on 7th and sudden lowering of temps high in atmosphere for frost even snow on very high ground, some sloughing downhill into valleys.
8th-9th clearer skies around 2am on 8th wont prevail, giving way to some easterly flows after mid day, bring in chilly damp conditions promising winter showers of rain turning to sleet and snow, very heavy to far west and north and in Dales, and on high ground such as Pennines so take care on the roads, snow will also expected in W Yorks.

 

10th-16th January

10th could see strong winds off W Ireland coastline but these are travelling westwards, and on 14-16th Jan this system is also operative.
Snow could still be covering some ground around W Yorks and yonder from the outset, but with temps getting colder it can turn frosty and icy as the days march onwards.
Some variable conditions but it does look like we get a few good days 15-16th while a storm is brewing out to sea.

10th Mists/mizzles clear by 8am onwards, some blue skies with cloud developing in mid pm, but remaining fair into the evening with any rain arriving to NW regions around 10pm, travelling east.

11th Similar to 10th though some precipitation potential mid morning, breezes wafting residue showers around, cloudier by mid pm, flurries expected as clouds that bring them form.

12th Sporadic hail and sleet from midnight intermittent into early morning, cooling temps and flurries on high ground keeping things cool, more sporadic outbursts/flurries during evening towards late at night. Rainier to NW regions from around 10pm. Winds stronger on high ground.

13th Clouds/ mists in valleys to start the day, which turns duller by mid morning with potential mizzles mid-day. Snow on high ground could drift down on wind but overnight looks clearer for better overnight conditions.

14th Any precipitation seems easterly of our region, some ghoulish winds haunt chimneys and alleyways, cloudy but fair day expected generally.

15th Storm breeding will be headlining today for areas out to sea. Inland looks gloomy with short sharp cutting showery outbursts from 1am onwards. Today and tomorrow should see some finer weather to enjoy with gradually clearer skies and undecided but strong northerlies trying to see off some of the gloomier weather.

16th May bring some sporadic intermittent fast and furious showers, mingling with winds, with frost to high ground early morning, and possibly lingering during the day, along with cooling temps and mists to valleys overnight as cloud grows thicker. Expect colder winter temps from now on.

 

16th-24th January

There are three major events for this phase. One is land/snow slides, the other is seismic affecting our region but also longitude from Brighton through Grimsby and northwards, 20th-22nd, my money is on 22nd, and the other is air and land pollution from the onset arising from widely fluctuating weather extremes and drilling activities–gas and deep cavernous rock minerals are likely to be actively triggered causing hazardous events.

Communication lines will also be at risk as well as transport routes where ice, blizzards and harsh weather breaks out.

Landslides expected to Komi, ASSR, Russian federation area 17th-19th, some seismicity affecting the area too.

Air pollution coming in from the east is highly likely to impact on health in W Yorks region.

16th As above some westerly battles with gloomy easterlies. Clear cool and crisp outlook.

17th Snow flurries likely around 6-8 am, mid day and evening; winter showers heavy to NW with rain sleet or snow in the mix, and travelling our way possibly overnight into 18th. NW Scotland could be seeing unsettled weather for seagoing.

18th A mixed bag will create problems with milder low lying currents overlaid with colder higher air strata, so in valleys expect milder temps but on high you will feel the cold coming in, and frostiness. This is a combination of freeze and thaw meeting and sudden thawing to soil can create slide hazards, snow or mudslides on mountains and moors, Pennines and cliffs. It all depends on altitude of regions affected.
Conditions established today also affect gases and other minerals underground.

18th into 19th Erratic winds NE and SE circulate with routes affect by blizzards and either rapidly thawing or rapidly freezing surfaces. Communication and power lines in Eastern areas can also be affected as blizzards begin to take hold.

20th Is very icy with blizzards continuing on high routes and to the north UK affecting comms mostly and exposed transport routes, but some sunshine may break through the mix up, the sun laughing at earthling folly! Ozone rich atmosphere operative today.

21st, Mists mizzles and gloominess freezing fogs at start of day, with spurts of icy hail and winds driving in sleet and sporadic winter outbursts till after midnight tonight. Today sees temps dropping low brining an icy cold day.

22nd Is when I expect seismic offerings so will be tracking where the EQ affects UK landmasses. Air and land pollution high today, so take care when out and about. Heavy winter showers expected to fall across mainland UK take care if travelling or check your air or train availability due to disruption over past few days.

23rd Freezing mists and fogs in high places, but less wind and more settled outlook ahead, with temps levelling out from icy, icy temps. Some clearer skies to help us feel less assaulted by weather dramas.

24th Jan – 1st Feb

Very cold, frosty time ahead, some icing on exposed watery places, but temps will get milder as this phase progresses. Some dry days with sunshine around, clearer evening skies keeping things cool, unless otherwise forecast.

Likely days for winter showers are 25th around 6-8pm when showers with sleet and snow and hail can race around. 28th sees a fair start with snow flurries around mid afternoon but 31st looks like being the worst day for rain stopping play but this looks like happening late evening around 9-11pm, and could continue into early next day.

Winds more settled, less blustery till 27th when they get gusty but a good day for drying out anything that got drenched.
EQ aftershocks may reverberate around S E seaboard US 25th or 30th Jan likely dates. The butterfly effect, cause damage in one part of the globe and see it affect another part………………………..

Mists, high humidity and cold damp air, though less cold by 30th when southerlies bring in some promise of more weather battles to come.

31st seems to potentially bring in more blizzards.

1st -8th Feb
The stormy nature continues but temps eventually less cutting by 6th. EQ potential again 2+ or – 4th, haven’t time to see where this is likely to be…east of UK suspect longitude 25 E

1st-2nd is full of blizzards intense from midnight to mid day with power lines and air traffic affected. the system begins off NW sea areas of Scotland and slowly moves SE over next 2-3 days eventually fizzling out to East sea regions Gales to high spots affect air travel and routes and comms. Gusty spurts lashing any prominent landmark. Worst of weather should ease after mid day 1st, but start up again early morning to mid day on 2nd, which will be a very unsettled outlook with winds of gusts at varying speeds, bringing in rain sleet and snow to high ground. Temps cold to freezing depending how exposed you are. Winds dying down on 2nd but evening could see potential residual precipitation.

3rd Low temps prevails, some cloud and sunshine, breezy. Cloud thickens by evening with potential for sporadic isolated sharp showers.

4th Weather systems move quickly eastwards so varying cloud, sunshine, fair and not so fair scurrying along. Some blue skies to enjoy with sunshine in the mix. Overnight into 5th could see some static outbursts.

5th Chilly start, gusty again, erratic sudden spurts, some static lightening may also arrive in the morning, with sleet or hail outbursts, mostly localised in micros.

6th-8th Northerlies are active now trying to clear the weather away some spits or spots around blowing in the wind but generally a fair outlook expected. 7th more likely to see more winter flurries arrive before mid day with snow in the mix, snow settling on residual frost likely. Winds can be active but not so strong as earlier in the phase.

 

8th-15th February

Winds are less active though any breeziness will contain a chilly feel. Northerlies are moving westwards warding off some of the worst of the weather out in mid Atlantic and iciness attempting to come down from Iceland, so we can expect some fairer weather to generally prevail. If you’re organising outdoor pursuits the 10th is a fantastic day to put in your diary—pay me later…

8th Sun with cloud expected during daytime. temps colding (yes I know its not in the dictionary)

9th is cool and fair with varying cloud but heavy winter showers expected to the west around10-11pm

10th Could see the heavy overnight winter shower coming over our region before the day breaks out into refreshing and fine outdoor atmospherics. Wind chills but exhilarating, very pleasant.

11th temps seasonally mild should still be fair conditions generally.

12th Cold temps with occasional isolated sporadic short sharp showers pm and late evening

13th A chill factor and a little bit clammy with mists and likely breezes could turn windy with aloft air chill factor.

14th This looks like either snow or sleet around in our region from early am not sure, sorry…might even be mists lingering but with humidity around during the daytime.

15th ongoing……………….

15th-22nd Feb

This phase sees temps growing colder to frosty but mostly uneventful headline weather wise. 15th-17th mainly dry some clouds around and southerly flows, so any precip forecast is expected to be light.

15th early am could see sleet and rainy spells heavy to the west snow in the mix at the start of day slowly travelling our way, skies clearer by 4-6pm but chilly conditions moving in late evening

16th showery before sunrise mists and mizzles potential some cloud around but mostly dry during the day.

17th similar outlook to yesterday though snow bearing clouds look to get heavily laden

18th breezy chills frosts but some blue sky with sunshine around, fairer southwards cloudier to north with southerly flows

19th Fair but nippy outlook mists and fogs to valleys and low lying roads by late pm and overnight, freeze fogs potential

20th Looks like blue skies around with sunshine but little warmth freeze fogs by evening again.

21st similar weather as previous days some static hard hitting showery stuff circa 7pm

22nd I expect sleet snow and rain to arrive and move across many regions of the UK today, potentially southwards around break of day but moving around. W Yorks looks like being hit circa 8pm Mod to heavy precip expected.

22nd Feb-1st March

The worst of the weather stays in the Mid Atlantic for a while longer and this looks like being mild, with 28th unusually so for the season.

22nd as above with 23rd less likely to bring rain.

Without delivering a blow by blow account, I expect seasonally calmer trends with little precipitation or disturbance. Some cloud around but also some sunshine. 24th looks a little lively with gusty weather 25th is fair for the north with fast moving weather taking any rain threats away, 26th is blustery with erratic gusts, but mild temps, 27th is cool but clearer skies, varying winds with cloud scurrying along, thickening later into potential misty conditions near valleys and low lying routes.
28th will see mists and fogs in the evening and sun could find it hard to break through haziness during the day which will have very mild temps for a winter season.

29th still some mistiness and fogs but greater expectation of them clearing during the day

1st Cool fair weather could be disturbed after mid day by showers

1st-9th March

Seismic intensity magnifies around equatorial regions of Indonesia or of equatorial region of South America for this phase. 2nd -6th March above 5 mag expected.

Some mists, fogs or snow could be to the west of us but the outlook is eerily calmer than expected for this time of year, unless I missed something major….the calm before the storm perhaps however, here goes

1st is cool fine and fair some cloud around but nothing to worry about, and late evening skies look very clear indeed pehaps inviting frosts to form and mists.

2nd is similar to 1st but potential for showery outbursts around mid day, sudden sporadic and intermittent spells.
3rd Looks like a very nice day with a clear atmosphere for those with a camera

4th-5th again nice outside but some blustery whippy gusts beginning to get active

6th is disturbed and a little unsettled but by mid day again things should look good.

7th sees winter hail sleet and snow coming over, may be heavy at times, heavier to the west but travelling our way too arriving potentially circa 9 am

8th full of mists and fogs or haze so it will be hard for the sun to get through…could be mingled with some pollutants as well

9th-15th March

This looks like weather Armageddon when the weather shows us who is in charge, and it isn’t flood defences or other man made attempts to rule the globe! Weather alerts galore expected. Cyclone breeding off NE coast South America adding to turbulent Spring Tides expected to bring dangers to sea off Northern coast of Scotland and Orkneys breeding gales, within first few days, travelling to SE Scotland into North England and downwards .

Similar conditions to first week in December 2015 are set to break out. I often hope I get predictions like this wrong, so here’s hoping I am.

Blizzard territory likely to break out this phase….

This is a total solar eclipse with perigee Moon on 10th, so we expect some wild and extreme weather to come and continue. In December the world watched as floods broke through defences in Cumbria and many parts of the UK were assaulted by torrential rain, gales and landslides in Altura in the Highlands and at Ullswater, with gales across Wales and western parts to add to the spectacle.

Severely disturbed atmospherics continue, with record breaking outbursts expected, Lowestoft/E Anglia region singled out for
headlines–possible air and travel and sea disruptions but could also be lightening strikes, along with other parts of the UK seeing action hitting headlines.

The equinox isn’t far away and usually the heat of Australian summers get dragged up to clash with the cold of our winter breeding Spring in it’s wake. Spring with noisy labour pains.

Temps can be metal bending cold in high regions and as this crystallises it will drop down to meet the warm air travelling northward, often this results in tornadic breakouts circa 11th for W Midlands and circa 13th to some valleys as cold air falls downslope.

A quick tour of the drama begins with unsettled outlook for 9th-10th, showery outburst expected, but some fair weather possible during the day, though to the west there will already be signs of winter showers. Static outbursts expected
10th-11th The worst of the weather comes overnight 10-11th and looks set to migrate around the UK with record levels of precipitation as well as flash floods breaking out as the sleet, snow and rain circulates, W Yorks in the firing line for this event, as well as other regions. Fogs and mists highly likely near sea and valleys and watery areas.

Rivers and other watering places in low lying valleys expected to flood plains and beyond, so collect your cattle, and keep vulnerable creatures and people safe over next few days as well.

12th looks set to bring in some breezes with some milder outlook but humidity high with more wintery outbursts potential sleet/hail during the evening.

13th-15th Some isolated narrow storms travel through valleys with tornado potential to Midlands, air transport affected as well as high routes across Pennines and traffic on bridges over estuaries, as scattered electrical storms move around. There could also be news of more mudslides. Precipitation expected overnight 14-15th when mugginess and mists and cloudy conditions prevail.

Very strong northerlies around by 15th trying to clear away the mess King Weather has ruled us with. Tendency for cold miserable bouts of sleet, hail, snow and rain with valley areas feeling the brunt of high levels of accumulation……..

Rivers and other watering places in low lying valleys expected to flood plains and beyond, so collect your cattle, and keep vulnerable creatures and people safe

15th -20th March
More furies to contend with as a stormy outbursts hits from the West to NE GB, gale force winds arise strong and northerly, seagoing affected and major routes and air travel disturbed by this trend. More heavy precipitation coming in as the northerlies, often high speed and fierce, try seeing off the stormy weather. Western parts most hit with disruption to air, sea land, rail. Gales around from 15th, hurricane likely to rage in from the sea—-destructive by 16/17th., 18th might be more settled but not for long while 19th is very cold and windy with northerly chill.

The Equinox is early on 20th disturbing conditions further and sudden falls in temps partner a cold front descending from the north with sudden abundant rains to watering places in valleys overstretching capacity in rivers, on roads and low lying pathways and routes…….mass floods heralded.

Spring arrives with a grand entrance letting everyone know hell hath no fury like a global climate on the attack

 

Time to think of those wonderful summer days ahead…………..

Summer 2015 Part Two, W Yorks and Yonder

Summer Weather Part Two 2015 AUGUST 2015

The following weather forecasts proved very challenging as the atmosphere remains unsettled due to
so much going on celestially and affecting the atmosphere surrounding planet earth. Do take time to
read my Aug 29th -Sept forecast where I draw from a 19th century successful and much respected British weather forecaster named Saxby whose book you can download FOR FREE here:-

 

https://books.google.com/books?id=oQoFAAAAQAAJ

For those wanting a look at how well forecasting  weather long range using ancient earth satellite technology is, please do visit  my other blog at http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com

which  used to report on the outcomes of weather to give an idea of how accurate my long range forecast was.

 

July 31st-7th August 2015

It took a while to study the charts for this phase due to so much going on and echoing previous years of seismic outcomes, which need a lot of research and cross checking.
Firstly there are seismic factors operative which I haven’t timed or located precisely, because my main focus has to be the weather with limited time available, rather than EQ or extreme weather in other parts of the globe to ours. However, I can say I expect an EQ to west UK regions, Blackpool area, as well as/or instead of Tectonic plates in Irish sea which often tremors across to southern Brit shores.
I also firmly expect EQ to SW China, in early August, centring a few tens of kilometres east of where
one struck Yunnam region in 2013, this may arrive later, around 10th, when a lot of disturbance rocks
things up. Taiwan also looks vulnerable too, as well as NE of New Zealand in the southern hemisphere,
However, back to the weather and this phase is a very unsettled one with so much going on up in the
heavens, so don’t expect a smooth ride weather wise, I certainly won’t be booking days away.
Some very bad weather is tempered by some good weather trying to control it, and as they battle with
each other we will end up with some good some bad…. From the outset a slow moving system is
moving in with some gloomy outlook at times, but don’t worry it wont be allowed to rain on your parade
for long…..but we can expect some thunder, lightening and hail and sporadic hail outbursts to keep
your investment in your umberella worth the buying of it…

The warmth will be more due to cloud keeping temps from being too cool mostly fair to north unless
otherwise specified.

Here is a quick tour 31st July-7th Aug:-

31st and 1st Very unsettled; isolated hail and sporadic localised showers active during the day, cool and some clear skies by early to late evening, but some humidity and cloud around, with mists to some valleys.

2nd Seismic outbursts likely today. Northerlies active trying to clear away the bad weather vibes,
occasionally very gusty as day gets older, some rainy outburst potential early morning before
breakfast. More cloud, rain and mists likely to NW of our region, but it wont stay around all day.

3rd Some isolated showers localised, so not widespread or long lasting. Very unsettled again some
occasional sun spells but not reliable for the great outdoors during the day, the evenings will generally
be better.

4th An improvement today on former days for our region with some calmer conditions along with more
sun and settled weather.

5th Showers around sunrise more cloud around with more showery outcomes likely to NW than we get
here.

6th Some cloud here and more windy than yesterday, but occasional sun outbursts, cloudier to the
north however, and fairer to southern regions with temps rising on previous days, but this could result in some thundery outbursts during daytime for some localities.
7th-14th August
This phase sees mists and mizzles to the west regions of Britain for 7th-8th. The weather continues to remain unsettled until 10th when static is high and headlines could be about the EQ I mentioned earlier. Days after 10th is when weather calms down a bit and slowly takes bad outburst to the east of us. Some thundery spells likely for first few days but some areas will not get the rain that threatens to accompany them in sudden showery bursts for some localities in our region.

We don’t revisit the highs of July just yet, but this will change later in the month ……………temps will try
to rise but be thwarted by cool northerlies at times and some sudden showery stuff bringing in some
cooling, though precipitation will not be heavy. Temps look set to be cooler than July’s highs, but with rising trends over first half of the phase.

7th Some northerlies around keeping things cool, mists/mizzles to West Brit, mists could also lie in valleys Addingham, Ilkley etc. Some showery outbursts likely around 6-9am moving around different localities.
Cloud competes with sun spells during the day.

8th-9th Shows some annoying showery intermittent spells from mid-day 8th-mid-day 9th keeping
things cool and some thundery outbursts could also threaten to spoil play, some localities wont get the
rain just the thunder. Restless weather continues but by 9th we could see more sun between clouds
instead of behind them with warmth from the sun wrestling with cool spells.

10th Remains variable breezy/windy/gusty NW around, especially on high land, these will blow gloomy
clouds away so that later in the day we will see a more settled outcome arriving with cool drier air
conditions remaining over next few days with more sun around but on 11th rainy/showery outbursts
expected around 6-8pm. 12th should be a normal summer day but still some breeziness around. 13th
could revisit thundery or static outbursts on high ground to the NW regions, trickling over to W Yorks
and yonder (overnight into 14th) and sudden mini squalls could spoil sea going activities also, usually
this trend also sees some blue skies as well so I don’t expect much cloud to linger but sudden cool
conditions can catch you off guard if outdoors.
14th-22nd August

There are drought indicators from now on but also some indications of precipitation which I don’t expect to be heavy or prolonged, or even useful for filling up lakes, reservoirs or rivers, which do look sadly quite depleted nowadays, probably due to high abstraction levels, which does leave a worrying trend for landscapes dependent upon higher levels.

There seems to be a low blocking an Azores high sadly, so I don’t expect glorious high temps, unless
you are holidaying in the Azores which looks quite sultry. The low runs across NW Scotland also
reaching Cork regions of Ireland bringing some showery stuff into play as well as intermittent drizzly bits
with a few expected reports of hail as well.

Some t/storms also expected during this phase, —–yet again…this is the year for t/storms folks, enjoy
the weather drama! I will watch for headlines around buildings being damaged due to lightening strikes
in our region, and to high pylons or electricity systems W Yorks and Yonder…hopefully I’m
wrong……Happily I don’t expect a lot of heavy precip. to arrive with it, and most will arrive overnight or
late evening, but from the outset it does look like gusty sometimes strong windy conditions flail around
from the NW for a few more days, annoyingly, as it will keep off any benefit of higher temps from
sunshine outbreaks. This phase reminds us of 16th July phase when rain and overnight t/storms didn’t
stop play but did keep you on your toes, or under your cagoule for half an hour or so, if outdoors walking
the fells.

14th Should be a good day outdoors overall, but some hail potential intermittent and short lived, but
being blown around by some blustery weather, in between it will but mostly sunny and fair weather,
apart from those cool windy bits that occasionally gust around on exposed places where they will rev
up a little to strong and speedy, so take your ear muffs if mountain climbing….

15th The winds still active with cooler temps but should be a dry outdoor day with sunshine around.

16-17th rising temps could create a bit of static that creates thundery threats, mostly overnight, some
sultry conditions around followed by quick dashing about showery stuff just after mid day, and sun
with cloud, but bright weather expected for daytime activity and once any showery stuff quickly
moves on. Cloudier to northern parts, fairer to southern ones, 17th brighter than 16th. These two days
look to be the warmest for this phase.

18th-19th some showery outbursts again, spartan and intermittent with gusty westerlies veering
around on 19th. Again the showery stuff looks to arrive after lunch, but wont be too heavy and will
leave brighter conditions once they pass over, could be quick sleet or hurting hail showers.

20th Gusty and variable N.Westerly winds expected to be lively again but bright weather around during
daytime.

21st Some cloud developing today between sunny spells, the evening is clearer and brighter skies
prevail until more showery threats spoil play around 6-9 pm by 22nd the cloud could get thicker but
some warm sultry weather around due to cloud keeping the earth warm overnight.
22nd -29th August

Mist, mizzles and humidity breaking out from Cornwall up to Wigton areas Cumbria and over towards NE Scotland with highs coming over from Azores to west of that line of weather, with expectation of warmer trends moving down S Eastwards as days progress, culminating in a lovely summer day by 26th.

What else did you want to know?

22nd-29th can bring in some cloud spells with 27th-29th being mild and fair weather but again with mists expected in valleys and over watering places. Generally that’s all that’s required to cover what
should be finer weather generally for us to enjoy for this phase, any thundery outbursts on 23rd would
only serve to freshen the air and will be short lived but cracking around 6-10pm
29th August to 5th September

Last 3 phase charts proved really tricky due to so many things going on weather wise and needing detailed tracking to pull out weather for W Yorks and Yonder. However, here goes with an added advantage of lessons learned from a man called Saxby ( 19th century weather forecaster) who, pre expensively funded met office, delivered trusted, relied upon long range weather forecasts using lunar phases and a priori knowledge of the use of these by Kepler etc. Farmers would circulate these forecasts as would mariners who knew as a result when to avoid storms on days singled out by Saxby.

Saxby found that at times of New Moon perigee and either equatorial or at highest point in the sky in
the north or south hemisphere, cyclones would form to the east of Trinidad and then travel to Britain 9
days later (7th Sept in this instance 2015) creating many sea and other disturbances 3-4 days after perigee, which is on 30th in this instance. And so although the Moon on 29th August is Full, rather than Saxby’s preferred NM, I take it too to be a cyclone breeder due to being FM 29th, perigee on 30th and on equator travelling North on 31st, heralding a big storm coming over to Britain.

Interestingly the charts I use for forecasting with, mapping celestial events with terrestrial locations,
show that on 29th nearby Trinidad Pluto Squares Uranus (with a very wide orb or distance), indicating weather is being brewed in that region, as Saxby would warn at a New Moon in his developing forecasting system.

Saxby tells us that dangers to shipping would pass N W of GB at a NM, and we can see, that in the Full
Moon chart Saturn is semi square Pluto at a point to NW of Scotland, about 50 degrees North latitude,
20 deg longitude, heralding some stormy weather brewing out to sea in NW Scotland, and creating bad
weather for sailors in that region for this phase from 29th onwards. This system will travel inland bringing some turbulence with it and travel to SE Scotland and perhaps the North Eng taking 4+ days to travel over from point of brewing at sea to N Eng, after 29th. It will be interesting to track and verify this at the end of August.

Meanwhile in W Yorks and Yonder (and in the Lakes) the Full Moon usually indicates clearer skies after sunset to sunrise, which is good news for campers wanting to stay dry overnight! Here are the outcomes I expect for this phase:-

29th Warming trends but unsettled weather. Sporadic variable showers, heavy for some further west,
localised and not long lasting around 4-6pm, cool breezes blowing on exposed areas and mists and
mizzles around in valleys and near watery places such as bogs and wetlands on fells and moors.

30th More early mists and mizzles as sun rise with some precipitous weather mid morning but should
leave a drier afternoon with some sunshine and warmth-should be a good day.

31st Unsettled again- some cloud around with some shower attempts aroun7-9, this is the day when
NW Scotland sees rough weather out to sea, , but here we will see some sunshine with warmth.

1st Mists, sun, cloud, hazes, unexpected localised hail outbursts, all in the weather mix, depending
where you are in W Yorks, the warmth will breed showery outburst for many around 4-6pm. By 9pm
mists will be forming to valleys and watery places. Some blustery south easterlies today and tomorrow.

2nd Rain clouds forming further west herald intermittent but refreshing quick showery outbursts in the morning, sun but with cloud around mostly during the day and evening, higher rainfall expected further west…lakes area….

3rd Some gusty breezes blowing clouds away so sun can break through and temps should be better
today with more sunshine to enjoy.

4th secondary sea disturbances warned by Saxby for today, so watch sea forecast, squally sea going,
and in some valleys. Weather could develop as sticky, static and clammy with N Westerlies strong at
times on high ground—Lakes and Pennines and moors and fells which foil temps rising as high as we
would like, but sunshine will be out there between some cloud hanging around, and showery outburst
7-9 am likely, but clearing as day progresses to blue overnight skies.

5th Generally sunny with temps warming but I’m not ruling out a quick shower between 3-5 pm, some
gusty breezes and winds around keeping things cool.

6th A clear start with sunshine and warmer trends. Rainfall expected to travel east today and be heavy
to the east of W Yorks than any that might threaten these parts. Read 6th for next phase to get a
clearer picture……………

 

5th-13th September

A quick tour of the highlights for this phase. Sunshine won’t be absent; prolonged sunnydays not on offer, cloud will quickly form then move on to be rapidly replaced with other cloud that on occasions will block out the brightness of the sun. The trend is for static conditions mostly.

Thunderstorms are likely to break out again, and they will be cracking and a wonderful spectacle. Days
singled out are 8th overnight, when strong gusty winds whip around (keep your tent pegs well
hammered, and don’t forget the gyre ropes and moor your boat safely) and t/storm again 12th at late
pm to evening time but again overnight so migrating t/storms around Britain likely to provide
excitement.

The northern lights will provide more spectacles that are fascinating to watch once skies clear up.
We can expect much wind around sometimes quite strong and keeping things cool, causing those sea
problems due to the cyclone activity mentioned earlier, these should subside greatly by 10th.
Rain will be heavier to southern England/E Anglia as with earlier rain that delivered one months precip
in one day on Friday 24th July. 11th looks likely candidate for rainy weather to travel up England and
beyond.

12th looks cool but clearer skies and sunshine but not a lot of warmth, unless you stay sheltered, 6th
gives the best of the warmth which afterwards begins to wane.

The 9th-12th are better weatherwise, but13th seems the most likely candidate for a better sunny day
and good outdoor weather…..but read on….

13th-21st September

During this phase we move towards the equinox on 23rd September, with 13th being a solar eclipse, but a few emerging factors celestially are revving things up across the globe and Pakistan and surrounding countries look to be on the receiving end of the worst they can bring this time of year.

We look gloomy this end of the globe here is a quick un-detailed tour which isn’t very optimistic it looks
likely fogs and mists and sea frets are further over to the East, but some fogs around major routes in our
area, to upset travel at this stage generally. Temps are on the cool side too.

13th is cloudy gloomy with easterlies bring in some gloom with a fast moving rainy mass far west
coming our way falling from before sunrise on 14th and I’m not sure it wont stay around, but things will
remain unsettled until 15th when easterlies veer westwards clearing the gloominess and leaving a way
towards drier conditions with blue skies and woolly clouds.

16th rain over to the west is causing problems to travel there we get sunshine and cloud with the rain
arriving again in the evening around 4 pm for a couple of hours.

17th cloudy start with mists likely clearing at sunrise humidity prevails but some brightness and sunny
spells from after sunrise could stay around during the day.

18th Highly unsettled and this is the day Pakistan and regions will encounter the worst of the flooding
monsoon levels. Here it will vacillate between sun and cloud but don’t expect a great outdoor
experience.

19th I expect rain to fall from 1am onwards leaving it wet and muggy for the morning dash, with
perhaps fogs and mists to contend with.

20th looks clearer and more settled. Warmer in Aus, than here, and it’s their Spring breaking out! Today
should bring a better day but not anything to write home about.

21st Some showers around, intermittent but very obvious around 1-3pm when it will be gloomy…oh
dear, return for the Autumn outlook later

Mayburgh Henge, sadly only one standing stone remains, finders not keepers please put them back! They belong to all of us.

UK WEATHER BRIEF SPRING 2015: Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder

Best dog ever

First of all apologies to those people who have signed up for regular reading, life and the universe had other plans for recent seasons.
I can’t promise normal service resumed, but promise I will make every effort to do so as it would be reckless to ignore years of skill developed by using astrology to forecast weather.

I can’t promise 90%-100% accuracy for this forecast as I know for sure I abandoned looking at the wind charts settling instead for expedience and using indicators in the other charts instead. I do expect 60%-80% and for sure some weeks may even move towards being 100% accurate, and I do hope this will be the June part of the forecast which will bring in some fine weather if not a flaming June living up to normal expectations.

Spring Weather 2015

The New Moon on 20th March reached perigee on 19th so is not quite a massive headline supermoon but will bring some unsettled weather as this is also the day of the equinox, and the sun rising into the northern hemisphere along with the moon we will see some fast moving weather systems, so don’t expect sunshine or rain to stay around for long. However, this perigee is quite long lasting as some of my weather buddy friends point out (noteably the ever watchful Ken Paone) and Robert Nolle calls it a ‘stealth supermoon’ due to it forming an eclipse while perigee lasts from 13th-27th March capturing the equinoctial phase.

Not only that NM being at the end of one sign and ready to move into another we can expect trends to vary quite dramatically from the outset. The last time we had a New Moon at this stage of motion heralding Spring, was 1996, however this wasn’t eclipsed. I failed to find any records of weather drama for the UK, which is not to say there wasn’t; just that most websites I searched had headlines for other months and years than this. I do expect some spring tides to be wary of at coastal places, with sea frets and mists more to the east coast, but if you like the spectacle of sea horses and crashing waves the coast is where you need to be for this these few days. An eclipse can often nullify expected outcomes, whilst a perigee Moon can often exaggerate them, whilst a planet moving from water to a fire sign can often bring spectacular results all on its ownsome. Certainly the Sun cuspal for the equinox on 20th will bring in some static atmospheric turbulence and with the Moon in tow this indicates mists and fogs.

I’ll be watching the eastern central Philippine area to see if a hurricane arrives there around 20th-21st, but it will be fast moving and short-lived.

Here is a brief tour only:

 

20th-27th March

20th Very unsettled with one weather system soon replacing another in quick succession: cloudier if not gloomy to some areas by evening, and some nebulous wind flow.
21st Wetness seems to stay to the west of us, though some may blow over to parts of W Yorks, with some hail and sleet showers rapidly arising then stopping suddenly as it began, more likely to south of England, but in fast moving pockets. Usually weather like is accompanied with sunshine, but this can soon be overtaken by cloud as well so any sun spells may not be long lasting. 8-10pm could also see more outbursts as described. Some cold whippy northerlies and westerlies could be attempting to clear way the unsettled weather from today.
22nd Clouds around, humidity hints at warmer temps, clouds and mist by late evening.
23rd Some warmth could break out today but humidity rules so misty pockets could spoil visibility, especially at the start of the day (this means at the turn of day around midnight onwards beyond 1am) so take care whilst travelling throughout Yorkshire and beyond….Some cold pockets out of the sun where breezes wind around corners and some cloud around.
24th I expect some showery outbursts today evening the likely time centreing around 3-4pm. Mists and clouds rule especially denser to the east regions, Spring April like showers highly likely so don’t take a sunny spell for granted. Still some warmth around so a heartening trend for gardeners with bulbs enjoying the weather. I also expect some whippy westerlies to be active today, more so to the NW regions.
25th Cooler temps sun with cloud around, micro hail and sleet outbreaks, particularly in the evening, interfere with sunny spells.
26th NW winds in spurts bring in icy temps to high and exposed places, but ensure clouds get blown away faster leaving a promise of sunshine as well……………………but not for long……………………….read on

27th March to 3rd April

Rain over the West will slowly, oh so slowly, beginning to move into West Yorkshire from today and will bring some heavy outbursts which will leave roads flooding as it moves on. I expect parts of Cumbria to be vulnerable to this from the 26th, as well as some places in W Yorks where rivers and lakes and flood plains will be witness to the incoming deluge. Ireland, Wales and Western Isles of Scotland will also take in this system from the outset. The East of use fares slightly better, but rain will travel in their direction by 28th when it is heavier to W Yorks before moving east.

Winds will still be keeping temps cool on high or exposed areas and will be quite brisk and Nor westerly

The 31st sees off the worst of this slow moving system but is still unsettled, while the 1st is calmer in outlook with no surprises weather wise, and the 2nd brings cooler conditions to E Anglia but fairer weather to the north, some easterlies threatening to spoil things again with a bit of gloom and some unsettled winds around, but by evening the sun is beckoning and promises a better day to enjoy for 3rd….enjoy……………..a lovely Spring day at last.

4th — 12th April

Some migrating lightening and t/storms likely making it difficult to positively locate them without taking a long time, but they can be expected during daytime rather than the night. Eastern parts of UK, East Anglia especially will see a lot of this type of weather.

4th potential showery outbursts by mid day with sporadic hail sleet type outbursts in some pockets of W Yorks during mid afternoon, so sunshine in between these outbursts. Eastern UK could see some of these outbursts
5th Rain likely to move down eastern coastal areas, dry to W Yorks but cool, very cool and lots of static around. Some occasional sun spells
6th Thunderstorms look likely mid morning to North, South and Eastern parts of Britain, W Yorks may get some inward moving systems but for us this clears by 1-2pm when sunshine and better weather should break out. North Westerlies strong and active but will hopefully take away the static stormy breakouts.
7th Cool day with some sunshine around but NW winds are strong and cutting, on high ground and coming downslope so watch out when travelling in valleys where wind tunnels can create problems.
8th Cold day with some cloud around , winds are still active keeping things cold but blowing clouds away to leave some gaps with blue sky coming through. Unsettled outlook by evening.
9th Much better outdoor weather today temps can be warmer than previous days
10th Cool but sunny with temps warming up. Winds could prove lively and highly excitable at times.
11th Should be a better Spring day with some warmth around come the 12th ……………………………………

My mum is so going to miss me this time of the year

12th-18th April
A generally fair but blustery phase, overall cool, breezy just about says it all, but there should some sunshine around too with Spring warmth for first few days.
The winds excited on 10th may continue to affect NW regions which could encounter comms and transport probs, while from 12th-14th hail sleet and snow outbreaks to NW Brit regions could see snowfall on highland areas.

12th Cold start; warmth from Sun by mid day and afternoon. Some mists could arise near watery places. Temps rising with southerlies.
13th Warmth around mid day and pm, but this could trigger a quick shower or two mid afternoon scattered and intermittent until before sunrise on 14th. Some mists also due to warmth creating moisture.
14th Some dampness remains but temps mod for season and some sunshine could break out between clouds, with potential for rain after mid day.
15th Cool, breezy and cloud around, easterlies bring in some gloomy conditions, lowering temps.
16th A slow moving weather pattern with clouds around, lower temps but it will be fairer to areas to in North and South Britain. Some gentle southerlies around too.
17th A fairer outlook for today.

18th-25th April

Temps look like being seasonally lower range for us, but down in Aus they could be battling the usual treetop fiery outbursts so watch the weather news for these headlines……

Overall drier weather should prevail until last two days, with some good spring-like days emerging, notably 21st- 22nd when ozone highs should keep everyone happy, so try get outdoors for the spring lift, but wrap up warmly…..

18th Southerly flows, some sunshine to enjoy during the day but by mid night it looks like some scattered stormy outbreaks stop play outdoors.
19th A few micro showers around breakfast time and again by teatime 6pmish but some sunshine in between but remember temps will be lower than usual, though some warmth from the sun at mid day onwards.
20th Should turn into a lovely spring day, a great day for getting sheets dry but watch out for those whippy keen westerlies if you are kite flying or ballooning..
21st The ozone highs arrive so expect a sunny day; cold, if not nippy, but great for outdoors. Northerlies keep things cooler but fresher.
22nd Winds northerly then whippy westerly and pretty speedy by late evening could be lively but at least they keep any clouds from turning things grey……..but
23rd-24th are the days when rain may arrive to spoil things heavier to mid day on 24th when it should subside…temps lower still to that of previous days.

25th April-4th May

The eastern coastal regions look to be enjoying some sea mists due to getting the best of the sunshine from the outset with E Anglia getting what highs of Spring are operating, but it should also be reasonably spring like with sunshine to W Yorks at the start. Temps fresh and moderately Spring like with some improved temps by 27th, but not for long….

25th-26th Sudden air frosts but generally fair, sun with cloud around. Good for photography so get the camera ready
27th Sees better temps slowly arising along with less cloud
28th Some mists or cloudiness bring potential for showery outbursts, here by around 7pm
29th Cooler, sun with cloud and mists to watery areas
30th Fast moving system now, with showery outburst potential before sunrise over next few days, clouds and mist around to western areas so don’t expect too much sunshine to stay around today.
1st –3rd Breezy, cool Westerlies argue with Easterly flows unsettling the atmosphere and allowing for some gloom to slowly develop over next few days. Frosty with intermittent hail or sleet showers in between sun spells leaving it cooler but with sun around by 3rd.

My Favourite Place Friar’s Crag Walk

4th-11th May

This phase doesn’t look good at all. Weather headlines for Cumbria expected, generally most of Britain will not enjoy great conditions. Conflicting weather systems leave things very unsettled from the outset with clouds and winds keeping the sun at bay. Temps stay below normal range until 6th when things can warm up, but this may just trigger mists and mizzles afterwards.

4th Very unsettled outlook develops and prevails over next few days with gloomy easterlies arguing with westerlies, and ain may result, heavy at times.
5th Could see stormy outbursts with NW regions getting the worst of the weather, clearer by evening
6th Better day after a misty cloudy start cool but some blue skies around with breezes keeping temps cool.
7th Some warming of temps today but clouds around, mists develop later in the day near watery places
8th Some rain expected around sunrise, if not continuing sporadically from night before. Cloud around not sure if the sun will get out today.
9th Skies should be clearer temps less harsh but winds variable with intermittent sharp, scattered showers expected along with sun spells
10th Looks like the better weather is on its way………………..read on……….

11th May-18th

Not a very good outlook with some turbulence still operating though East Anglia looks to be the lucky part of the UK with better conditions augured. Temps still staying below seasonal average but the heavy rains look to be behind us for this phase. Less sun to enjoy than we would like, and we’ll be left putting heads down and getting on with it. Still, that’s Spring moving towards a better outlook for June…hopefully….here’s a very brief tour for W Yorks region

11th Could be some scattered showers around, suns spells possible today
12th Mists, gloomy to western parts but westerlies are getting lively today so should help blow some clouds around leaving gaps for sunshine to come through.13th A rather bland spring day for us.
14th More unsettled conditions sun around with humidity developing.
15th Sun with cloud and winds vying with each other again.

18th-25th May
This phase begins with wet weather but refreshing the gloomy atmosphere of previous days. Still some unsettled atmospherics that can interfere with air traffic, but the last few days hold a hint of better days to come. The damp chill of former days might not be so oppressive this phase.
18th showery very early before or around sunrise, clearing by mid day if not mid morning. Northerlies argue with westerlies, expect some wind chills to remind us this is Spring not summer.
19th-20th similar to yesterday but winds get more active and keep things cool, less likelihood of showers breaking out.
21st The weather begins to warm up a little with expectation of sunshine for today.
22nd It will definitely rain today…really it will…watch for 1-2pm
23rd -25th Isolated cloudburst expected potential for news of tornado affecting Midlands as winds may get a bit wilder, rising temps however, breezy, sudden wind spurts but fairer weather slowly breaks out but this means mists can form and it is they that can interfere with flights.

25th May 2nd June
Don’t worry the good weather news comes soon for June, just watch it trying to breakthrough valorously during this phase!
There will be some mists around mainly eastern quarters, but also to valleys as descending cold clashes with arising heat trends, and some lashing westerlies may cause problems by 27th, troubling some to NW Scotland. The south looks to get the fairer weather but this will change by 31st.
Generally a good phase for gardeners to watch their crops thrive on the weather conditions.

25th Stratus clouds dominate the north with hail and sleet likely to sporadically hit pockets to the north, with highlands getting snow. Very cold on high ground with chills lowering temps as they fall leading to some mists forming to valleys, late evening as well. In between showery outbursts some sunshine could be present but these micros are difficult to track-probably valleys such as Ilkley, Addingham will get the mists while Grassington will see fairer weather.
26th A misty start with lots of cloud around clearing by mid day leading to cool but sunnier outlook
27th A fast moving system aided by some high speed lashing westerlies sunshine covered by clouds as they speed along.
28th A more settled outlook as winds subside with warmth from sun by mid day onwards HURRAH! Summer beckons….
29th Variable breezes, sun with cloud.
30th Some mists around early morning but clearing away later, however it does look as though some more rain makes its presence felt by evening so don’t take anything for granted when the sun shines.
31st Sun provides heat but forms clouds drying up any rain from previous day leaving cloud around for 1st which could stay gloomy, but generally the pattern from 31st- 2nd is one of a fairer
outlook to the north with temps lowering on previous days and some cloud around……..But oh look at 2nd June………book this for your day off and plan a mega outing……………….might even be a great evening for a barbie!

2-9th June

This is the phase when you can get out the barbies, put on your best summer gear and plan for some great outdoors. The only blot on the horizon is some fast and furious sleet and hail and lightening storms raging around by 6th, like a petulant winter trying to stop summer from arriving. Expect both lows and highs with some areas reporting extremes for that day.

2nd Cool sunny day with warmth from sun pretty comforting by mid day onwards
3rd A lovely evening for sure, during the day some varying temps could see cold in shade and exposed areas but temps in sun in sheltered areas will be lovely
4th Fairer weather to north especially
5th some early mists as the earth warms up clearing the way for rising temps today, another lovely evening to enjoy outdoors
6th An all weather day with highs and sudden lows and some static around causing micro hail and sleet showery stuff, some lightening around too as micros circulate inland and to lowlands.
Take your brolly but don’t expect outbursts to last long, it’s a war of the weather but summer wins! Records could be broken today weather wise, some localities could end up with misty stuff but don’t worry it wont stay around long term..
7th onwards some lovely highs can now rule with fair summer weather and higher temps to enjoy though on 9th will be interfered with by whippy, cheeky, gusts and spurts of Nor westerlies.

9th-16th June

A very quick tour of the weather for this phase brings in seasonal record breaking highs by 11th-16th. The East looks set to be where the best weather of all is, the west could see a little more cloud, but overall this is summer at last with sunshine to enjoy.
Overall expect wholesome weather great for outdoors and smell the ozone. Scattered clouds, blue skies and perfect days to enjoy
9th-14th sees southerlies around while the 9th is a glorious day, the 12th could see some scattered precipitation on 12th, the 11th sees a real ratcheting up of temps with some isolated hail shower potential to some pockets mainly east late evening.
14th-16th potential for some breeziness turning NW but at least it keeps Mr Rain from spoiling things.

Aaaaah Summer days

Summer Solstice phase 16th-24th June

Slightly more cloud for us this last phase of Spring, but overall we can expect some fair weather to continue along with seasonal higher range of temps. Some breezes could keep things seasonally cool by 19th as the sun gets ready to rise even higher in the sky which of course always brings in some disturbance as we enjoy all those squelchey wellies around
Glastonbury…they might get drier ground this year!
On 21st, solstice day, we can expect a little cooling with some cloud playing with sun spells around mid day, breezy but overall fair weather to enjoy.
Records for the East GB expected.

AUTUMN WEATHER 2013: W. YORKS: UK: LONG RANGE FORECAST

Autumn 2013

Writing this in early July 2013, after the heady heatwave that broke by 22nd, it’s easy to see more heatwaves continuing well into Autumn….in our dreams. Certainly the season starts with some highs and the area between GB and

Europe is where the best temps reign supreme for a while, so eastern GB looks to be enjoying some nice highs at this stage. To the west of GB some highs also linger but with mists and hazes and some cloud that stops Sun
performing as well as we would like. This looks like turning very autumnal by 5th October when I expect high winds and some stormy outcome.

In fact I expect signs of autumn to show early in leaves and grass due to the drought conditions that left herbiage unquenched and needing sprinklers to keep them moist. In such conditions we get early drop and dying out of
summer growth, the signs usually associated with Autumn in fact.

October charts brought a bit of a challenge. First of all for three weeks we get the same indicators for similar weather patterns for three weeks of the month from 5th-18th and even by 26th there is only a slight variation on the theme with a more intense outlook being generated.

Winter makes its presence around the corner quite clear by 10th November phase when temps try to remain mild but begin to give way to an icy cold front and freezing mists and fogs by 12-13th and this could create some transport
problems. it was chilly just looking at these temps let alone living with them!

This forecast takes us up to the end of November and will be updated in October to take us up to Christmas.

September 2013

FM 19th-27th September
Could be some outpourings to the west prior to this phase, with any residue meandering eastwards from the outset on 27th. If you can remember back in 31st May and first week in June, the Mets kept telling us about the Azores
high and sure enough we got mosquito outbreaks in its wake!

We will still be enjoying a continuation of some good weather for this phase, another potential Azores streak that bathes us in some nice seasonally high temps. NW Scotland could see some variable temps with occasional
dullness, mists haze and cloudiness depending on altitude and this could slowly move further down the west. But overall a good weather trend to enjoy.

27th October-5th October

This is where Autumn discernibly moves in.

The fair weather continues for a few more days, but temps get cooler as the phase progresses growing autumnally cold by 30th when I expect precipitation to hit NW regions, i.e lakes area. Unsettled conditions turns the tide on the good weather from 29th with winds growing restless and ready to blow off the dead leaves. Winds grow ever more erratic by 1st keeping things cool and a little chilly, with sporadic rainy outbursts, mizzle and drizzles heralding the end of summer and dawn of Autumn. Temps much cooler by 3rd onwards when winds rev up in speed and temps grow even more variable and cold, could mean gales for some regions, but some sunshine afterwards for last 2 days I would think.

5th-11th October
The cold weather looks likely to continue with gentle southerlies around at the outset trying to ward off any bitterness, but with northerlies above we can expect mostly clouds forming and localised showery outbursts from 5th, moving eastwards.

By the 7th the weather gets much more unsettled with mists haze and cloud around watery places, with warmth and cold air vying with each for space. I expect clouds if not mists and haze to predominate by late afternoon or
evening, particularly to the eastern areas of our region.
8th Brings a cloudy morning, some mists may linger, more showery outburst likely. Easterlies predominate increasing cloudiness as the day wears on, erratic gustiness makes things unpleasant if not a little stormy with NW one of
the areas of GB most vulnerable to these outburst and squalls. Could be hail or sleet and it is cold so I’m not ruling out snow arriving or heralded by these weather conditions, and it could be highland areas that gets news of the impending arrival.
9th slightly milder conditions, snow still likely as previously mentioned and showery outbursts localised but very heavy at times, but some sunshine spells around to brighten up the outlook.
10th-11th Southerlies blow with a slight rise in mists and haze lingering , high humidity and isolated cloudbursts with heavy downpours for many regions, again looks most likely to North east and west at this stage.
1

1th-18th October

Clearer but cooler conditions rule off east of GB with these slowly moving in later this phase. Milder temps look more likely to far west of UK and this could clash with fogs and mists forming when the two meet.
Residual flood conditions could still be taking up traffic news at the outset and the NW region looks like one of most likely candidates.
A more biting chill factor arrives after 16th when temperatures will get colder as days progress, reminding us winter is on the way.

I expect sporadic isolated cold showery outburst 12-13th, hail or sleet for high places, some cloud to contend with but winds blowing them about creating some windows for sun to shine through now and again. Winds can be gusty
on some days. 13th sees snappy westerlies gusting at times and easterlies bringing in a cloudy outlook with localised showery outbursts, most likely before lunch, 15th and 17th stronger gusty outlook.

14th colder with some sun spells and less likelihood of showery outbreaks
15th Much more unsettled, winds get gustier and lustier and sharp
16th temps move cooler than previous days with frosts likely but a crisp atmosphere more moderate winds and clear visibility with lovely skies. High places could see snow and will be much colder than in lower areas.
17th Rain hail or even sleet, could be heavy at times beginning in the morning for us. Winds gusty, cold coming in from east, a touch of frost early in the morning and at night also heralded for the end of this phase.
18th seems to herald a likelihood of scattered showery outbreaks but read on………………..

18th-26th October

A continuation of similar weather to the last phase but with echoes of a chance of breaking the 1985 March Cambridgeshire 29.4C high on 1st October, but this time it looks at if Suffolk beats the temps with Felixstowe region the most likely winner. Certainly highs rules there from the 18th. This temp was broken 1st October 2011 when 29.9C was hit at Gravesend Kent, and highs will reach by18th a well.

The theme for weather in October 1985 for a similar chart to our current one was showery outbursts with thunder around the UK for 6 days between 2-9th October, and this pattern will repeat as some mugginess and warmth moves
in and isolated torrential downpours arrive as the phase unfolds. Some outbreaks can be short sharp hail showers as at Stainburn Cumbria when 20mm stones hit unsuspecting passers by on 4th of that month. The west of GB as
well as Scotland got the worst of the rain by 6th with snow falling to Cairngorms and Highlands 8th-9th—I expect a similar pattern to emerge as days progress. 1985 brought an Azores High into play and we miss the full heat of this
but a warm front is forming far wet and north of the Azores and we can expect some semi tropical lows to come over, but this is likely to form mists, haze clouds and fogs as it clashes with some of the colder air from 16th.

Isolated and scattered thunderstorms expect, to our region.

Sunset to sunrise should see less to no rainy outbursts for the most part and temps are very mild for the time of year. Evenings look likely to be a bit muggy and foggy, when usually a Full Moon sees clear night skies, but this
could change after midnight for a short while till after sunrise when precipitation favours falling at this stage of the moon.

Winds could get very lively to some regions with westerlies gusty and cutting at times, and northerlies joining in by 23rd but these usually bring a turn in the weather outlook and can clear up and bad conditions.

18th As previously forecast but the scattered showery stuff looks to be moving eastwards and seems further south. This is the day when Suffolk and SE regions get the highs. news of thunderstorms for GB could also be breaking.
Sun spells likely for us.
19th I expect a dry day with northerlies seeing off any total cloud cover forming, but it can be a little muggy with these temps. Fogs and mists likely near water over next few days.
20th Atmospheric disturbances expected from today. Localised sporadic downpours erratic, and intermittent during the day, heavy to some regions, ours too. A seismic time with EQ news for SE Russia or NE China…132E lat
55-60N long but 21st has more signals for exactitude? Semi tropical lows arrive with high humidity and cloudburst slowly circulating, thick hazes and fogs can also form with travel over the Atlantic under stress in these conditions. Gusty on occasions but mostly nebulous and variable breezes and winds.
21st Could be a drier outlook but high humidity and some cloud mists and fogs to valleys.
22nd Quick isolated and localised hail outbursts, but temps seasonally mild generally, very unsettled weather outlook.
23rd We can expect extremes of temps for the season to be causing raised eyebrows but I expect them to be on the warm side rather than colder than expected (famous last words!) Weather now gets pulled eastwards for a few
days and it does seem a little squally with variable winds, gusting at times and strong to NW and Scotland causing some travel problems on roads and highways. More mists fogs and haze around and by 24th onwards isolated
rainy weather travels eastwards with muggy conditions .
25th has some promise for sun spells and more semi tropical type temps but accompanies by mists and haze, so it looks like a cloudy night is heralded keeping the temps seasonably mild. Haze expect, mists and fogs to valleys
with variable winds continuing.

Oct 26th-3rd November

Perhaps levels of rain might be lower than we usually expect, and temps milder than expected for this time of year, and East Anglia seems to be getting a lot of the better ranges of sunshine with perhaps drier conditions and warmer
temps than the rest of us, I’m not ruling out drought conditions creating some problems for the region either.

For this phase I expect thunderstorms to arrive but little to no floods, although by the end of the phase heavier rain is likely, but the NW looks likely to get some pretty sharp or extreme outcomes.

Tornado Alley in the US looks busy at this time also.

26th Variable winds from the outset, some sunshine around but clouds developing, temps on the mild side

27th-29th Some quick sleet and sporadic showers expected, localised and intermittent but temps still mild generally and high humidity with occasional cloudbursts–quite sharp and heavy by 29th where NW sees the heavier precipitation.

From 29th weather gets easterly cloudier and skies duller and storms can be pushed northwards+ NE with outlook clearer for the southern regions. This system looks fast moving and consists of rain turning to sleet, snow with hail outbursts with winds breezy, very gusty and temps getting lower with rainfall cooling them off, some wild and windy weather is also expected.

1st Nov looks less unsettled with some chance of sunshine and clearer skies for days ahead, but breezy conditions are very active.

The last two days will have some sunshine during the day, but look more likely to see some rain travelling across by evening for us and for southern regions as well and strong westerlies remain gusty if not blizzard like, but some sunshine could also break out, but I expect snow to be in the news at the outset of our next phase Dublin and some parts of GB look to be white by 3rd, could be frost or snow…read on……

3d Nov-10th

A cold front arrives during this phase but turning milder by the end. 4th and 8th look to be the main culprits for wet weather, but other days can bring in some cold showery outbreaks. Winds should be less active for us.

3rd Looks like a little warming for southern regions anyway, but there is also cloud around and cold pockets, with rain sleet and snow showery outbreaks.
4th A low system brings a cold front, not ruling out snow either, skies look dull with cold mists and fogs likely to coast and valleys, showers can be intermittent and drizzly the skies are much better before sunrise so get up early to see them!
5th Some sun attempts by morning, accompanied by quick hail and sleet showers, sporadic and localised, unsettled conditions with occ sun spells.
6th The next few days brings in some haze, variable winds, some dull cloudy weather from 6th, but some sun spells, 7th will be cloudier later with poor visibility trends, could be more drizzles overnight to next day 8th is calm but humid and mists from overnight, easterlies shows some muggy conditions around but a bright promise around 6-9 am
9th can see some sun around mid day a risk of short sharp showers around sunset and more easterlies keeping things a bit dull
10th Generally fair but a risk of showers again by evening.

10th-17th November

This is when temps come to be extremely wintery with icy cold conditions and freezing over likely. Generally fair conditions at the first few days between mists and showery outbursts

10th Some windy weather from the outset with easterlies gusting around mid day, but this gives way to calmer conditions later at night. Sporadic hail and sleet showers expected from around midnight to early 1 am on 10th onwards. freezing fogs likely late at night towards 11th so take care on the roads.
11th Rain and showery conditions moving to east of us, some southerlies around but mild, and more freezing fogs by evening.
12th Some cloud with sunny spells during the day
13th Cool with sun spells from sunrise onwards should be a nice by the afternoon but some clouds and mists to valleys expected by evening.
14th Hail and sleet can burst out but not be long lived otherwise some fair trned operating
15th Today brings a very noticeable cold low into play when we could see water begin to freeze over. Icy cold showers could break out late evening and there is some potential for sleet if not snow storms with higher elevations affected, but this cold front is going to be very chilling.

16th-17th Cloudy some gentle breezy conditions about, cloudier to northern parts, fairer to the south but chilly, some warmth from sun during mid day on 17th.

17th-25th November

This phase shows extremes of temp lowering to very icy with the big freeze coming over. By 20th we could see some cold air descending to meet iciness producing some wind emergencies down in the Midlands, and the west
could also see some action from westerlies veering north to try and clear everything up a bit.

East Anglia, Norfolk regions look very cold too, so does NW of Scotland where temps are very low the SW England and NE Scotland also look in line to get snowfall by 17/18th……….

17th-18th Looks windy to the east of us, temps nippy, frost on the ground likely with potential for sleet and winter showers giving a show of white cover. Some sun could be around to keep things cheerful, with evening skies being clearer but creating cold conditions due to no or little cloud cover.

19th-20th Some rising temps during the day with sunshine trying to gain control, but hail and sleet flurries look set to come over from the east for us, heavier to the eastern parts, heavier for us on 20th and to southern shores.
Today -20th-brings in the winds I mentioned above , these can be gusty, the Midlands and Scotland look worse hit by these, nippy, keeping things very cutting, temps very icy out of the daytime sunshine. I’m not ruling out sleet hail and snow blizzards with this wind, creating a bit of a news headline.
21st Icy showers arrive today possibly by lunchtime, some sun spells with cloud and some south-easterly air flows keeping things muggy during the day.
22nd is very unsettled with south westerlies around, could be a rough ride weather wise if not an all weather day when we get rain, hail sleets snow and sun till the weather decides what it is going to do. These outbursts will be very localised and intermittent through the day.
23rd Cloudy but fairer potential for snowfall also or sleet and hail creating fogs and mists by late afternoon due to high humidity and by 24th little to no or nebulous winds growing cloudier by evening with an intensely cold low front moving in heralding dull leaden skies and moving eastwards today and on 25th when easterlies make things gloomier Bbbbrrrrrrr……..

This post is also repeated on http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com
Reports on accuracy of weekly outcomes will be resumed at a later stage. Read previous postings on weekly feedback of previous seasons to get a measure of accuracy which is often 80-90% and for many weeks in a season it can be 100% using the same methods our ancient forecasters used to forecast weather using ancient satellite technology.

UK SUMMER WEATHER 2013 West Yorks and Yonder Long Range Forecast

Long Range Weather Forecasting that Doesn’t Cost the Earth

 

 

In February I published my Spring Forecast on my blogs at www.amazingweather.wordpress.com  so please visit there to keep up with the Spring long range forecast, also on www.ukweatherbrief.wordpress.com   where you can read feedback on previous season accuracy to verify results.

I realise some parts of W Yorks will often have rainfall or more sunshine than other parts, and due to such micros operating it is difficult to locate and forecast these within only one or two miles of each other, hence discrepancies often operating between my forecasting and localised weather micros throughout the region. Happily this is a rare perhaps once a month event, leaving an overall  reasonable reliability for our regional long range outcomes.
Introduction Summer 2013 UK W Yorks and Yonder

First of all I do have to write an explanation of why it is difficult delivering 100 per cent accurate forecasts for one region such as W Yorks. For 18th March, for example,  I had forecast it to be a fine start with hail before sunrise, but some mists and fogs to some localities. My locality had fogs, mists and continuous thin snow showers from very early am, clearly fulfilling the warning of fogs to some localities. I haven’t had time to see if anywhere in W Yorks got the fine start with hail, to test the fullness of the forecast. However, another forecast for 8th March was for a localised outbreak of hail and sleet, but sunshine and clear skies, cold temps and strong gusty winds. Instead we got thick cloud, gloomy, drizzly stuff with fogs later in the evening, so not a good forecast for my locality at all. HOWEVER, just a mile away, still in W Yorks going over to Otley the mists cleared to high visibility and finer weather conditions on this day, which is the locality for where my forecast was accurate. Otley and Addingham and other W Yorks towns, often deliver little micros that are difficult to pin down, and there is little I can do to prevent their weather often showing up stronger than that of other W Yorks regions on  around 10 per cent of occasions. This is one reason why I don’t promise 100 per cent accuracy for my outcomes.

Summer brings six planets to the northern hemisphere so summer should have some seasonally warm temps, but 2011 had some 6 planets in the north and that brought some colder conditions comparing it to 1993 which was very very cold with only three planets north. In August Venus moves south taking spring to their hemisphere early and perhaps auguring an earlier Autumn for us.

Junes seems to begin a cycle of flooding till 22nd July when it looks at this stage as if a heatwave arrives, but don’t raise your hopes too high! Nice temperatures look set to break out for the first part of July 8th-14th approximately depending on where in the UK you live.

So we seem to begin the summer with dangers of floods for the first half followed by either a heatwave or some hot summer temperatures bringing in cracking thunderstorms. I can guarantee the thunderstorms breaking out, but not for exact locations as they will be moving around quite rapidly on occasions.……..make sure your tent is waterproofed and earthed!  Mid July to end of August shows t/storms and lightening proliferating as temps get high and humid with a lot of static around.

22nd to 29th July looks a little tempestuous after some warm summer temps create a risk of static discharge and floods are likely to be in the news. This phase is reminiscent of April 2000 when rainfall was above average but Ireland got an unbeatable low of -8.2 degrees C. I don’t think we’ll be beating that temp, as this phase does look warmer than that! The eastern coast will be hit by scattered electrical outbursts from the start. Cumbria but mostly Eng/Welsh border does look vulnerable at this phase by 28-29th, so do some parts of Scotland, so I will be watching the news for outcomes. Also, we can expect news of some serious religious, financial and commercial discord at this time, with clergy and bankers as well as corporates under attack. News of more terrorist activity is also likelihood and I will be looking out for news of the sea–perhaps more piracy out there for this time of the year.
I took the following info about similar patterns for 3-4th July 2002 from the MET site to show you how this phase could pan out, as similar conditions prevail for this phase.
‘’Mean temperatures generally close to average across the whole of the UK. A very wet month across most parts, with some areas receiving three times their normal rainfall.

At Leuchars it was the wettest July since records began in 1922, with 145.8 mm. Temperatures touched 33 °C at Northolt on the 29th, with 83 mm at Marham, Norfolk on the 30th.

England and Wales diary of highlights

Unsettled and chilly first half followed by a warm dry spell, then more changeable. Hot and thundery later with some downpours and local flooding. Fresher closing days.

1st to 12th Unsettled and cool with frequent outbreaks of rain as low-pressure systems and their associated fronts traversed the region. Most days were decidedly wet especially in central and southern areas of England. The rain was often heavy and accompanied by thunder, the latter being reported on the 2nd, 3rd and 5th. Thundery showers also affected a number of places on the 10th to 12th.’’

 
Summer 2013 daily long range forecasts

 
16th-23rd June

This phase spans the solstice and with Glastonbury running this year, we normally expect mud baths and lots of wellies around to add to the fun of the festival……..I would have to spend a few hours with the special chart for Glastonbury to see whether it is likely to happen this way this year….though I haven’t looked up the date, though usually it occurs at the solstice. (Just took a look 26th-30th June…errmmmm looks like they got a proper forecast to help eliminate the usual solsticial mud bath then:-)
Certainly the weather is unsettled from 20th-22nd, and there is a high risk of mists and mugginess ruling off the west coast of Ireland and GB, and I hope this doesn’t spell more sea disasters to west of Ireland, as this chart I am looking at has echoes of November 2011 when a huge wave tipped over a boat off the coast, leaving six men in the water. This event could precede this weather during squalls of last phase, but better safe than sorry, as some strong gusty weather continues from last phase into 16th and 17th and some UK wide localised scattered thunderstorms could break out during this phase 16th-23rd, difficult to track as they will travel around.

Mistiness can break out over watery places in valleys and days around the solstice are likely candidates.

On a more positive note, temperatures look more summery for this time of the year as the sun makes a move into our hemisphere, but around 20th-22nd this produces unsettled weather

16th Sees temps rising but some very brisk gusty winds could keep things seasonally cool. Variable cloudiness, particularly over to the west of us, with a risk of heavy rainfall by very late evening. Some West NW gales or strong gusty conditions around some parts as well.

17th Temps warmer today, warmer still to eastern parts, with some nebulous wind spurts, and it looks like a dry day

18th Another dry day expected, variable cloud around but temps cooler than previous days.

19th Cloudy start likely but clearing to bring in a sunnier afternoon, this looks like a nice day with some nice blue skies to enjoy….

20th Unsettled weather today with a risk of early morning showers around and more risk of showers by evening, breezy outlook.

21st A lot more cloud around today, early and by evening, with light haze and mists to distant view and high ground and near watery places, some drizzly outbursts localised not for all areas W Yorks and yonder. To be honest I’m not ruling out a quick sleet or snow attempt either…

22nd High humidity likely trend, with quick outbursts of hard hitting precip very early am and near sunrise, cloud with sunshine expected.

23rd It looks rainy to far west of us before sunrise, and this could travel over to some parts of our region, and could even be a continuation of showery stuff from the night before, this looks like wafting in a cooler outlook, some sunshine could break out, but read on>>>>>>>>>>

23rd June -30th

High temperatures look likely to break out to the West of Ireland and Scotland’s West coast might benefit too for a change, helping them eliminate the gloomy conditions formerly reigning over there.

This could turn out to b a completely dry phase that sees off any bad weather, but I do see some precipitation arriving, but I can’t see heavy downpours arriving to bring floods, though it does look as if some parts of the UK could still be dealing with them at the outset due to rains of previous weeks.
Usually we can expect barbecue evenings during the Full Moon stage due to the Moon being high in the sky and warding off any rain attempts sunset to sunrise. I do, for the second half of this, see some seasonal highs arriving around second part of this phase, but some showery spells to keep you from getting too excited!

23rd as above

24th Risk of showers before sunset, but dry afterwards with some clouds, mists or haze around evening

Winds strong gusty and whipping at times NW in direction and varying speed over next few days.

25th Should be some rise in temps today but some static developing with a risk of lightening showers swarming around giving localised quick bursts. The outlook is unsettled with varying cloud cover but some sunshine expected.

26th Temps seasonally warm, some humidity, but should be a fair weather day. Risk of haziness by evening.

27th A bit unsettled but some higher temperatures built up with a risk of quick static localised showery outburst mid morning or just clouds, but temps rise again indicating a strong sunny arrival.

28th Same conditions as yesterday

29th A rainy outlook risk before sunrise continuing a risk to mid day, but after that some finer weather with refreshing air and good atmosphere to get some gardening done.

30th Quick sharp showers, similar to yesterday, around mid day but mostly clear and sunny.

 
30th June-8th July

At first this chart looked like a clearer, warmer phase, but under scrutiny it became more likely that some prolonged rain could arrive to spoil the nicer patterns, so I’m not ruling out higher precip to NE regions and perhaps others, but not as heavy to our region; this outpouring could put drains under stress and bring in some localised flooding around 1st and 2nd…but hopefully I get this completely wrong…

We will get some wet spells W Yorks and Yonder, but also some lovely outbreaks of nice warm summery weather, if not highs as well, for the second half of the phase.
30th As above with some gusty south westerlies around.

1st  Some sporadic sharp showery outbreaks here, but refreshing atmosphere even though dampness prevails, some leaden skies threatening to spoil things a little, with risk of a stormy outlook to NE of us with a risk of prolonged rain or showers keeping the outlook wet here as well. It could feel a little damp and chilly today as well. Showery outlook risks continuing into 2nd.

2nd Calmer outlook with some mists due to showers of yesterday, sultry conditions with potential for showers over higher areas such as the moors or just being surrounded by clouds (always a nice but spooky feeling up on the moors) cool but fresh atmospherics.

3rd Looks less wet, but mid day could see a risk of quick refreshing showery weather, some sun spells to brighten up the outlook.

4th Some cold pockets vying with warmer temps trying to break out, winds are erratic and keep things cool on high and in exposed regions, but there is also a warmer outlook growing stronger today with likelihood of sun spells.

5th NICE summery temps, blue skies and sunshine around, but a risk of quick showery outbursts for us, not sure abut the rest of the UK today though…

6th-8th Looks like the dry weather is more reliable with some nice temperatures and a brilliant atmosphere to enjoy good outdoor activity. 8th brings potential for some rainy stuff….but read on….

 
8th -16th July

I took some time out to look at important features for this chart and found 2 interesting record breaking incidents that wont occur during this phase…hopefully….

We have a similar chart to NM 22 June 1906 when record breaking high temperatures broke out, and though I do expect some nice seasonal highs for this phase, I don’t expect them to reach the same levels as then…..sadly, though we will get some nice warm temps hovering around–HURRAH.

I also took another look at the storm surge to Bristol and the Sun close to Mercury is supposed to bring strong winds, as in 1607, (and many times since then I might add) but I don’t see a similar storm surge, but I’m not ruling out very strong winds out to sea from 7th, and to our region on 9th. Saturn hovers around the west coast of GB from the start so it does look less sunny with lower temps there and winds look set to be strong for NW regions for the first few days, but then Silverdale in the NW can be a real wind tunnel any time of year………………………….

Photographers can expect some good visibility for the first few days as well, so get out your camera.

Temperature wise I expect seasonal highs to break out for the first part of this phase, with cooler temps after 13th
8th Sunshine around during the day with risk of quick scattered showers by evening. Temps should be warm today, the atmosphere should be clear, but cold pockets to exposed regions, and some strong gusty brisk westerlies could ward off the real highs. I do expect some sunshine today…..

9th Looks glorious for us with even higher temps ruling the day but some I’m afraid of a risk of very strong gusts and windy weather around, but this keeps things dry and hurries along any rain clouds that might try to spoil the UV count! Could be news of static outburst to west of us with mists or haze due to warming.

10th Cloudy if no0t gloomy start. More sunshine and some cloud likely but also blue skies around, some static could trigger localised sprays.

11th Temps still seasonally warm and rising, particularly south of us with perhaps lower pressure to the north, with risk of quick localised scattered cloudbursts

12th Things begin to unsettle a little today, temps still fair to moderately high, but could be cooler than previous days , Cloudy if not hazy early in the day and late at night, but fairer outlook during the day, some nebulous breezy conditions also.

13th Seismic conditions to East Asia, Japan regions today, I expect a sunny and warm outlook to prevail, but unsettled atmosphere with stronger N Westerlies

14th Risk of early showery stuff by mid day, but these look heavier to the west, sunny with isolated colder pockets for us in shady places, but less so by mid day.

15th Similar to yesterday with risk of quick sharp showery stuff if not hail by eve and potential for mist or haziness late evening. Breezy if not windy

16th A fair outlook, but very unsettled and lots of static forming, but winds to N West , could even be gales or stormy to highlands and news of thundery outbursts– late evening here>>>>>>>>>>>>>>read on for the next chapter in this weather story………………..

 
16th-22nd July

There are still some lovely almost tropical weather pockets around and Derry in Ireland looks likely to be where some of the good weather is, but so do John o Groats and Glucestershire regions, but this could turn around by 21/22nd when some cracking t/storms break out and some flash flooding is a risk.

I expect high levels of precipitation to arrive, and compete with records for July 2002 when three times the amount of average rainfall broke out and caused floods. I also expect a rash of higher than usual outbreaks of thunder and lightening storms

I’m not too happy with my forecast for this phase due to so many contradictory factors between highs and static outbursts travelling around and they are difficult to follow  demanding a lot of time and more charts which I don’t have time to do, so no promises…………….but for us I do expect heavy rain to hit by 21st but we also get some nice days to enjoy with some good temps, though not as high as previously, but still seasonally pleasant…The 18th-20th look like being more reliable for good weather outcomes

16th-17th Still appears lower temps could be NE, E Anglia looks well served with good weather, some warm weather around our parts creates risk of scattered migrating electrical outbursts overnight into 17th, heavy downpours accompany these, hopefully most of us will sleep through this, but some flash floods may result. Northern areas most prone to these outbreaks; including Scotland. 17th looks fine and sunny with warm temps around to keep us cheered up

18th -22nd Some cooling begins but 19th looks nice fair and sunny whilst 20th seems static with hazes forming, some muggy conditions around today and tomorrow. Some static lightening and thunder outbursts– highly probable over these days. 21st brings in high risk of downpours before or around mid day, these are very heavy as temps begin to rise again and some strong very gusty variable speed N Westerlies. Mid day 21st looks like the sun could shine through with a fine weather outlook for the afternoon, but the evening runs a risk of more heavy rain which could continue into 22nd cooling the atmosphere before sunrise, due to a very unsettled weather system breaking out warning of possible electrical outbursts accompanying rising temps, but the skies could clear easily leaving room for cloud but some sunshine and if you are resuming outdoor activity….take your brolly for these outbursts. Flash floods risk but some very warm trends also and should be a nice evening..read on

 
22nd July-29th July

In my dreams this is summer breaking out with at least barbecue evenings even if there is some cloud around during the day……..BUT, as I said this only happens in my dreams……

This weather phase left me exhausted, as if a tempest passed over! A lot of exciting weather to come.

This is the time of year when the sun is furtherest away from our planet and we often see a drop in temps and bad weather as if even the clouds above are grieving over the fact that school is out!

We do have a perigee on 21st, with Full Moon on 22nd so some of the warmer temps should be ruling both hemispheres. The East of England looks to be getting some fine summer sun with warm trends of summer temps (does it ever rain in Norfolk?) whilst the west is experiencing some low pressure with cooler temps, and this will change completely around by the end of this phase.

There is a risk of flash flooding due to risk of above average but torrential and quickly dispelled cloudbursts, the western regions from Keswick in a line down to Gloucestershire are most vulnerable towards the end of this phase, but Eastern coast of England down to Cambridge and beyond to Kent at the outset get hit by some spectacular lightening electrical storms.

Best headlines seem likely to come in from the West of us….
21-22 as already mentioned this appears to be when cloudburst break in between higher range of temperatures, the east from Whitby, Grimsby to Cambridgeshire and beyond looks the best region for these scattered outbursts, and down to Devon areas there does look to be some conflicting weather systems with electrical outbursts accompanying some lovely warm temps. Expect an unsettled outlook with localise warmth then sudden pockets of cooling after showers for these two days, with lightening showers, heavy at times but very heavy for some as soon as they begin and leaving clearer skies in their wake as they travel onwards. We wont be as badly affected in our region and we can expect some cloudburst but also some sunshine between the clouds, 22nd looks cooler for us, some sun spells expected and a finer evening so get ready for a good evening walk…or drinking al fresco

23rd looks better though some mistiness and hazes could prevail but some sunshine in between with clearer night skies. A risk of a quick spurt of showery stuff before sunrise warmer muggy trends today.

24th Similar to yesterday with shower risk more likely around mid afternoon but it could turn out to be just some cloud coming over. Temps moderate, getting warmth if you see the sun and some southerly flows of weather coming over, gusty breezes at times.

25th Risk of short but heavy showers after start of day and before sunrise but it could just be mists or haze I’m seeing. Milder to cool conditions for the daytime, should be sunshine but cloud around as well. Seems like some pathways could be getting muddy….

26th News of weather system hitting the west today/tomorrow– Cumbria down Welsh borders and up to West of Scotland likely to be facing up to the worst of the weather being seen on satellites, with a risk of some flash floods. Temps very muggy and tropical rains could be localised for some areas inland with easterlies around keeping things a bit broody, and news of mudslides a risk so don’t walk near muddy cliffs or take care on high ground where footpaths need careful scrutiny.

I expect fogs, mists and haze overnight, more predominant to west, after some fairer evening weather for us.

27th Risk of showers for us 5-8am temps more humid than cold,, sun with cloud expected by afternoon, clearer evening sky,some broody easterlies along with southerly flows still knocking around posing a risk of quick showery outbursts which could continue into the next day…

28th A dull start before sunrise. Humidity levels high some mist and haze to west and around watery places and coastal regions, strong winds for some quarters, fine and sunny and warm for the afternoon with sun spells for us, but a quick cloud burst could stop play around 3-6pm but it will leave things feeling fresher afterwards.

29th Sorry but this looks like even more rain increasing risk of flash flooding from west to east and our region. Very windy outlook as well, I can’t rule out some strong winds accompanying weather trends 28th-29th……..wet wet wet…….is the theme but it will clear up the muggy trends and leave the atmosphere refreshed and by late afternoon on 29th it does look like the rains are further east of us leaving us to a drier outlook for the afternoon and eve. Cool temps 29th and we could see some blue skies around with sunshine.

 
29th July- 8th August

Sorry to say my charts look like floods are likely to be continuing from last phase, with more heavy rain to add to the chaos for this phase. Hopefully I’m wrong, but astrologers have a rule, see a thing three times and positively predict,  and there are three signifiers for heavy rain and floods evident, but it could be they are already over by 30th…let’s see…..

29th looks showery adding to high levels already falling, heavier to the north travelling east and causing flash floods…Suffolk looks to be getting some rain today as well Wind activity is easterly so a bit broody weather to be expected.

30th A better outlook, cooler due to rain in previous days, but exhilarating atmosphere with coolness pervading it. Sun with cloud expected.

31st More scattered outbreaks, moderate temps, for the afternoon cloud and quick but heavy showers. Mists haze or cloud by evening some sun might break through.

1st Aug. Risk of showers by breakfast, very unsettled outlook, some muggy conditions and risk of static outbursts today and these may be around very early, milder by middle of day, but it does look like late evening has some lovely clear skies for stargazers such as myself. Some strong gusty N Westerlies around today to keep things drying out

2nd. Moderate temps getting warmer, risk of heavy showers by late evening and into following morning, potentially a fair weather outlook during the afternoon.

3rd Looks like better summer conditions today with any outbursts staying off till evening if they do arrive to your locality.

4th Wind speed increased to eastern parts, but some N Westerlies bring down cooler temps today cool but dry weather, electrical outburst to high regions and northern areas. The afternoon looks cool but with sun spells, cloudier later.

5th Slightly milder today, breezy though could turn out to be a dry fair day with some warmth from sun in the afternoon.

6th 6-8th look like similar to 5th. Fairer days, breezy southerlies around turning NW by 8th, some cooling on 7th but very unsettled outlook for 8th

6th-14th August

Could this be a nice phase???

Although I studied the chart for hours and researched some unusual features in it, I found the outcome so difficult to define and I do not have a lot of confidence in it at all.

When we have a New Moon we normally get the drier weather during the day and any precipitation at evening and overnight. I don’t see excess precipitation for this phase, but the temperatures are not reliable either, nor are reliable unbroken sunny days.

At first the chart looked sunny glorious and warm, and for sure the 10th looks the most likely for this, but there are some dangers of showery and misty weather spoiling continuously clear days or prolonged sunny conditions.

Apologies if this doesn’t work out the way I forecast at this stage long range on  February 20th 2013!

6th-8th look like fine days with some lovely weather to enjoy on 6th as mentioned in previous phase.

8th looks a little more unsettled with more warming around and southerlies

9th seems to have some risk of showery weather but more for the southern regions. Some good visibility around pm and evening with brisk westerlies combining with easterly flows, gusty at times continuing into tomorrow.

10th seems to be very warm and humid and a risk of hazes or mists near watery places and in valleys overnight tonight, temps mild but could be very warm if not very high, generally a fair outlook.

11th Mists and risk of muggy start today but developing into some fair conditions which sees some varying trends on cloud and temps, easterlies and some dull gloomy skies by late afternoon and evening.

12th Some mists or cloud still lingering and today sees high risk of showery weather, but skies clearer by the afternoon.

13th Another showery outlook for today around sunrise, mugginess around from early morning which looks to be quite warm, the afternoon looks better.

14th brings in some gusty westerlies combined with easterlies turning NW by 15th when they promise to get very strong, Sun with cloud expected… read on………….

14th August -21st

Mostly dry with some static outbursts of hail and sharp showers, some mists and some wind disturbances with sporadic static outbursts for 15-16th, these can be heavy to some localities, hail to others and accompanied with thunder and lightening for others. Weather will better to south England and cloudier to the north.

The worst of the weather hits the southern hemisphere for these days….

14th I’m expecting warmth in the sun, temps moderate but rising gently, fresh atmosphere, with fleecy clouds, but some unsettled winds begin to come in

15th Erratic and gusty if not high speed to north west, this can bring a sudden drop to bring in colder temps to high ground and exposed areas. Clearer skies by late evening, fresh atmosphere white fluffy clouds in blue sky, but a risk of localised and sporadic hail or sharp shower weather due to clash with warm and cold air as warned in the introduction.

16th Cooler outlook some scattered electrical showers, risk of high speed winds and or gales for some regions, acute and sharp cutting gusty westerlies along with scattered static outbursts.

17th similar to yesterday but winds less volatile, still some unsettled conditions but a cool sunny outlook could prevail with some gusty weather.

18th Similar to yesterday with some warmth from sun at mid day but a risk of a shower to freshen things up

19th and 20th localised showery outlook rising temps by 20th calm with potential for mists to form particularly likely early on 20th, due to high humidity, but by late evening on 20th some fair weather outlook some cloud around.

21st More winds likely, high speed to high locations, cool outlook though some warmth during the day, static sporadic outbursts can arrive to keep temps on the lower side, better outlook by evening read on

 
21st 28th August

Cooler temperatures begin to arrive, with some mizzles drizzles for us, as well as some mists and fogs. The whole of the UK sees rain moving around 21st-22nd and some strong winds are expected keeping temps low even if the sun does try to shine. East Anglia looks to get some of the highs that remain on a diagonal flow up to NW Scotland from the outset, and the NW region Cumbria could also see some of these but a risk of fogs and mists arises from this system following the trail of any warmth.

21st-22nd Rapid static outbursts of sleet and sharp showers, high velocity winds with rain heavier to southern areas, radio disturbances from previous days continue for a few more days accompanying static outbursts. Northerlies operate trying to ward off heavier downfalls and the evening on 21st looks like some sunshine gives us a pleasanter evening. Overall the outlook is cool with winds much stronger and erratic by 22nd onwards accompanying rainfall circulating the UK.

23rd Intermittent short sharp showers, hail to some localities short sharp and swift, cutting but some blue skies and sun spells likely but very cold temps for us.

24th Very cold pockets , similar to yesterday more cloud around by late evening, if not mists and fogs.

25th Humidity high, clouds and risk of fog, damp conditions with mizzles and drizzly outbursts, winds very strong gusty westerlies, sudden localised squalls break out along canal banks and river ways in valleys, localised but very strong and can last up to one or two hours before settling down. Patchy fog and mists likely especially by late evening when they can be thicker creating transport probs due to low visibility.

26th Cloudy dull with easterlies early in the morning looking broody, a cold outlook, but some fairer outlook by mid day, sun with cloud around, risk of a sudden outbursts of localised sleet and hailstorms late afternoon, cold evening and could be some frost to wake up to next day

27th The outlook is clearer for today fairer weather to the north, some cloud to start with but clearing and a fresher atmosphere but some unsettled if not stormy conditions to follow……….

 
28th August -5th September

I get to this stage realising I try so hard to find some glorious uninterrupted sunny spells that it would be nice to just ignore the bad bits and pretend the highs that appear in some of the charts this phase, will not be interrupted by anything windy or wet…….in your dreams..
East Anglia to Kent look set to get some lovely highs, but then they always do……the best of the temps for the ending of summer occur mid ocean half way between Hull and Rotterdam, so book your ferry now……..
Back here in W Yorks and yonder, a different picture emerges, but we do get some warm weather if not constantly sunny days to come and the 5th does look rather pleasant……

28th –30th have high humidity with likelihood of fogs by night, with mists and hazes hanging around threatening to obscure the sunshine by day. Some breeziness turning easterly and broody on 29th. The 30thwith winds turn strong, erratic and very speedy at times, and gusty turning westerly then northerly by late at night on 30th, fetching some coolness down from the north. Cloudiness forming during the day on 3oth, and a risk of rain coming in with the winds, the northerlies clear skies overnight into early start 31st producing some white woolly clouds and clearer skies for early morning 31st, and late at night promises better conditions for the south of our region, but cloudier the further north you get,

31st During the day looks like seeing a risk of static outbursts, sporadic potential for localised thunderstorms for some regions, these cloudbursts look sporadic for us during the day and late at night.

1st-5th Rain travelling south to east regions but we could see some heavy outbursts by late evening on 1st for W Yorks regions.

2nd onwards look like better days some mists and hazes could linger but temps set to still be summery and warm but humid 4th onwards, and a fine evening looks to break out on 4th. It looks breezier for this half with things cooling a little at night with air frosts likely overnight. 3rd is static hazy and humid with some darker clouds forming mid day, better weather by evening with a crisp and fresher outlook. 5th looks lovely at this stage….and from yesterday we could be in for those fine evenings when people sit out and enjoy convivial refreshment al fresco…..but read on>>>>>

 
5th-12th September

This looks like a drier phase with some sunshine around to remind us of summer. There are echoes of September 2011 when we had a heatwave for the last throes of summer, but don’t expect that on this occasion, and remember that there were some very strong winds around as well as rain as a result of that unusually warm weather.

Overall this phase looks drier until we get to the 10th when some precipitation looks likely to come in from the western parts hitting them worse than our region. Some strong winds could create problems for some regions for this phase also.

5th-6th Looks fair for us with some fine seasonally high temps on 5th, but there can also be sudden drops in temperatures so don’t take any warmth from the sun for granted, and if you are fell walking the drops will hit the tops first before descending downwards to valleys where areas in shadow will feel chilly. Cloudiness could set in from late evening on 6th

7th looks cloudy from the turn of the day but then it looks better from perhaps sunrise with some fair weather beckoning you into outdoor activity for the morning of the day and beyond with some warmth from the sunshine, but with some gusty outbursts.

8th A misty or cloudy start, lower temps and risk of some dullness but some sun spells expected for the afternoon, more cloudy possibly misty again by late evening.

9th A breezy outlook with some trends for more turbulent weather for some regions with strong gusty winds. Sun with cloud for the early part of the day, some warmth from sun, but clouds forming late evening warn of rain risk ahead.

10th-12th Strong, breezy if not windy, a fair start to the day on 10th but things getting duller as day progresses with a risk of rain arriving later in the afternoon and evening with more precipitation likely on following days. Some mists near waterways can be expected.

 
12th-19th September

The weather gets very busy for this phase and my satellite technology shows highs reigning across from Cornwall to the N E coast at Whitby, and anyone on that line across England can expect the best of a mini heatwave for a couple of days.

12th-13th Temperatures may be a little bit lower to the east to start with where some NW keep things cool, but some blue skies are left behind in their wake leaving a warm glow in the sunshine. I expect a little cloud to form by evening, but we should see some sunshine breaking out all over.

14th Today sees more highs but unsettled with likelihood of some quick static outbursts of hail and sleet in response to higher temps on previous days. It is calm misty/cloudy and sultry to begin the day, gusty North Westerlies rev up and can become strong for some regions in exposed areas to the west and north, mid day should be fine for us with a risk of showery outbreaks to high places. I’ll be looking to see if we get Fohn winds at this time of the phase, these are nice warm breezes that feel like someone left the hair drier on…..the hail storms are more likely late afternoon and evening. I do expect sunshine for daytime.

15th-16th is when the fun starts, but there should still be sunshine around the middle of the day on 15th. We can expect some static outbursts with scattered hailstorms late afternoon becoming strong overnight, with severe outbursts scattered, sporadic and intermittent, more intense to NW and Scotland as a cold front comes in to fight with the sultry conditions of previous days. Some strong gusty winds of varying speed with a breeding ground for localised tornadic outbursts, these storms can affect comms systems and air travel. There should be some blue skies around as well during the daytime.

17th shows very strong gusty westerlies, a mild start but much cooler by late afternoon with an unsettled outlook due to fast moving clouds which may prevent sun from getting through

18th-19th Stormy weather can be moving northwards, broody easterlies with risk of fogs and mists, and to be honest it does look like some heavy rain begins to fall late afternoon and evening on 18th, if it doesn’t then I’m just looking at some very dull leaden skies with risk of drizzle and mizzly stuff and cooler northerlies breaking out on 19th trying to clear things up. The NW looks to be worst hit by the precipitation on these days.

 

Spring UK Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder 2013

Spring 2013

Spring UK Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder

Cold and wet with snow thrown in just about sums up this Spring season.

Spring is late arriving this year and will be characterised by some strong if not fierce windy outbursts watch out for such conditions from 18th- 25th April for wild conditions to reign. This phase is also the best temperature wise and a great time to book a holiday in Ireland where it looks like the highest temps will be reported.
25th April to 2nd May looks like a slow moving system coming down from a low to NW region moves slowly across to the east spoiling the outlook a little but manifesting the continuing clash of highs with low and producing some high humidity and pluvial conditions along with mists and hazes.
June doesn’t look very flaming this year with some reminders of last year Jubilee conditions returning to haunt us and floods breaking out as rivers come full capacity creating flood alerts predominantly to the east and SE by 16th June, but the western parts are also under assault from heavy moisture mist and fogs hanging around some of those parts for weeks at a time prior to this.

Very unsettled conditions for this phase as Spring tries to break through, with some unseasonably cold conditions prevailing.

Mists and fogs to watery places will form as warmer temps try to ward off cold descending air masses, with mists and squalls more prevalent to the N East.

Very strong if not gale force winds arrive by 22nd with tornado breeding conditions likely to midlands SE regions.
Winds are very sporadic from 22nd onwards, strong at times and we will see transport systems affected as well as communication systems.

19-20th March unsettled weather with cold temps, potential frosty outlook and southerlies and NW air breeziness brining in some intermittent showery outbreaks localise with hail and sleet coming in and snow potential for high ground.
21st Cold day, some sun but attempts at warming by mid day, quick icy showers could ring in the start of this day.

22nd Very unsettled with sleet, hail and snow blizzards potential, the south looks to be worst hit by precipitation at this stage. Winds more lively becoming strong and gusty with tornado breeding conditions to S E Midland areas. Very strong winds to our region by 10 pm with blizzards likely to come in overnight into 23rd accompanied by high velocity winds t/out UK and some scattered electrical storms. Transport and communication systems upset by this outburst of squally weather. Areas between 30-40 degrees over in Europe also look to be having some fun with the weather at this stage.

23rd Very cold outlook, mostly cloudy, some sun attempts by mid day, sporadically strong winds continue with mists and fogs around late evening.

24th Spring makes another try at breaking through today, arriving later than usual. Some windy conditions stay around, outlook very unsettled, static conditions are lively so quick sporadic localised showers can be expected as the day begins particularly. Clearer skies before sunrise with some milder temps attempting to ward of the nippier ones ruling previous days. Mists and fogs near watering places as a result.

25th Clear skies to start us off a dry day with cold pockets but some good conditions for getting outdoors and flying your kite in the windy weather! We should see lots of sunshine along with some cloudy stuff. HURRAH!

26th Weather systems begin to move in an S E direction a cool sunny outlook with some cold pockets to contend with.

27th Looks more static and some electrical outbursts expected…difficult to locate these sadly…..read on…..

27th March-3rd April

Tricky chart to read with many hidden and unusual combinations of weather systems, so I’m not very confident of the forecast at this stage but here goes……
Previous combinations of the type we meet this phase arrived last year when mudslides affected the N E regions near Berwick upon Tweed and Hexham whilst down in East Anglia lovely summery weather broke out, though some spray did arrive to interrupt clearer conditions than those upsetting rail routes in other areas from 26th June.
News of mudslides not beyond the bounds of expectation…oh if only I had a team of workers I could be more specific…….

Not only that another similar outbreak of bad weather hit us in November 2011 when Stonehaven in Scotland got a 100 year record broken as floods broke out whilst in Hampshire mini tornadoes surprised a few folk.

I do expect some flooding for this phase and it does look likely to be the N E regions again, but hopefully I am so wrong you just ignore this forecast…here goes……..

27th Heavy rain looks likely to be travelling eastwards from the start of the day (start means after midnight) but we can also expect temps to rise today and dryness to prevail as day draws onwards with northerlies active trying to dry everything out and blow away the poor conditions……some Seismicity around last time this occurred it was Cumbria region….

28th Dry but cooler day some warmth from the sun by middle of the day when sun is stronger, but some cold pockets around especially in high exposed places, Cloud around late evening.
29th Broody outlook today if not oppressive, could be some sunshine around but again cold pockets keep things cool in shade by late evening, clouds forming could bring in some prolonged precipitation that lasts far into the night and into 30th…I am not dismissing flooding due to strain on drains and it looks like north and n eastern areas already pointed out in the intro that are vulnerable….

30th as already mentioned some sunshine could break out but some loud around also clouds if not mists by evening or it may be frost as well…..

31st Better outlook for today sunshine with cloud, milder conditions but sun manages to warm things up for the afternoon a little bit.

1st April Warmer or milder seasonal temps expect these to go up today…..

2nd Some precipitation to eastern quarters could be off shore Brid, Scarborough and Whitby….hope it isn’t Whitby under assault yet again….cooler temps sunshine around as well, some gusty weather to contend with also.

3rd read on as this looks quite changeable

3rd-10th April
Looking back over my weather history the last time we had a chart similar to this over the past four years was April 2009 when Mars was on the equator and whilst the temps were spring like and warm there was a lot of heavy rain and thunderstorms broke out to Leicestershire and beyond. Similarly January 2010 when icy temps reigned with arctic lows coming over, a lot of precipitation arrived along with thunderstorms to the Huddersfield and beyond regions, with floods due to thaws with Scotland hit badly by fogs and mists causing chaos.

This leads me to understand that we will get fogs and mists this time around, along with heavy precipitation in the form of wintery showers, hail sleet and snow very heavy amounts expected sometimes localised but t/out the UK by 7th possible overnight from 6th so prolonged and causing problems in its wake, with thundery outburst localised around 5-6th.

In brief this phase is cold, damp, misty, wet and windy……………………….potential for tornado or wind spouts for 5th-6th

3rd Gusty westerlies still around from yesterday with potential winter showers by afternoon
4th Cooler outlook, some sun southerly movement of weather quick sporadic showers by afternoon, localised so difficult to track.
5th Intermittent sporadic fast icy winter showers, heavier by evening, temps slightly milder. Some mists and haze developing near watery places due to cold and warmer air clashing and wind spouts potential to SW in Midland areas–more likely on 6th>>>>>>>>>>>>>
6th Isolated showery intervals broody conditions with humidity high giving potential to breed mists fogs and haziness, this looks denser to western quarters. Southerlies bringing in snow or winter showers with N W regions up to Scotland getting heaviest outpourings. The precipitation could last overnight into 7th
7th Winter showers throughout UK with some snow expected, very heavy at times and causing traffic upheavals, some regions could see flooding.
8th Sun trying to break through the haze milder temps around with some cold pockets to contend with, more spartan sudden and quick snow/hail/sleet outbreaks potential by afternoon.
9th Showers look likely to NW regions today with some gusty westerlies that could bring some of this precipitation over to our parts on the wind a hazy start early morning.
10th Some milder Spring conditions but humidity still high.

New Moon 10 April -18th
The theme for this phase is lack of sunshine, varying extremes of temps breeding viruses due to misty muggy conditions with some snow attempts coming over with easterly flows. Cold, mostly, but blustery with mistiness and fogs around.

10th Some sun attempts potential by the afternoon, localised showery outbreaks with westerlies, showers intermittent, fogs and mists over to western regions, some snow could come in with easterly flows to southern regions and reach here potentially but no promises, scurrying clouds, unsettled conditions.
11th Some more westerlies. Cool cloudy start of day trying to clear by breakfast, clouds mists could be hovering near watery places in valleys, mid day looks clearer but cool, more moderate temps varying by late afternoon. Wintery showery outbreaks more likely to east of us—-Far East over Europe but flowing towards us. I’m not ruling out some mists and mizzles for today and this could be from late in the day into morning on 12th
12th Seems to be a little milder but some cold pockets lingering, mid day could bring some sunny outbreaks, no guarantees at this stage, easterlies and north easterlies make it a little blustery.
13th Westerlies turn southerly by late in the evening. Looks misty or cloudy with potential for drizzle stuff in some localities. Cold pockets still around so wrap up warm. Misty or cloudy by midnight. Temps are very unsettled and can vary from some milder ranges to extremely cold.
14th Similar to yesterday, some dampness prevails with potential for mizzles.
15th Temps variable again but it does look milder by late evening, blustery breezy conditions blowing clouds along so sunshine in between cloudiness, but it does look a little hazy till late morning.
16th
Much milder temps prevailing but gusty westerlies still keeping things lively. Looks cloudy late evening and still blustery if not gloomy
17th Rain guaranteed today coming in from the west hitting us around 9 am depending on whether my pc has calculated the maths It does look clearing to better conditions by evening with milder temps….but this April don’t forget…when winter and summer battle it out.
Temps look to be rising by early 18th in fact it looks like a high comes in to make us feel summer is just around the corner….this is a very warm outlook…………………………….

April 18th-25th
The best place to be to hit the highs of Spring this phase is Ireland, especially Derry where the best of the temps break out to let us know summer has arrived……errrmmmmm except there is a cold front to the eat of UK warning that all isn’t as good as it looks. Some will hit the highs some will get the lows whilst some will get both on the same day! I’m not ruling out snow or sleet or hail either, and we will hear news of a big seismic event this phase to keep us glued to weather reports in the news……looks likely to hit the mid Atlantic Ridge as well as East of Japan.

18th Temps high tropical heat wave seems to bring a welcome invitation to strip off, but don’t be fooled….very high winds become active, but sultry conditions around by late evening
19th Another fair day fairer to the north rising temps north westerlies gusting and variable sun with cloud
20th Glorious weather expected……..high pressure moving eastwards some fierce erratic winds coming from west could prove troublesome however
21st Windy weather can spoil the outlook some lows clashing with highs will produce localised sporadic hail or sleet outbursts
22nd Winds still erratic sleet and hail potential arrives today after a clear start before sunrise, these wintery outbursts could continue intermittently t/out today and tomorrow as lows clash with highs, some clouds coming in mists and haziness could also develop, high pressure still moving easterly late evening clashing with cold and causing hail and winter showers.
23rd As yesterday very unsettled conditions so don’t take any sunny outbursts for settled weather as this can change from one minute to the next, though trends for warmer or milder temps by the afternoon, and some static outbursts likely with some northerly winds still gusty and strong.
24th Some mists clouds or haze by evening and a cloudy if hazy start of day, but the daytime should be fair, mild to warm temps if a little muggy but northerlies keep things fresh trying to ward off any bad weather threats.
25th Some high temps again but some cloud around with static cloudbursts potentially sleet or hail likely some arriving from midnight into the morning but sporadic and intermittent today.

25th April -2nd May
Some challenging conditions for me to read for this phase, so don’t rely on the outcomes too much at this stage which is the result of a partial lunar eclipse in sultry Scorpio promising some extremes of weather outcomes, so nothing is taken for granted….no guarantees but I don’t think I’ll find many trustworthy away days for this phase………………………….hopefully 1st and 2nd as well as 27th will prove best of the bunch. A low operates and can bring in a bit of a stormy outlook , some weather extremes highly likely, wind being one of them, and I am not discounting a snowfall attempt for some localities either–25th-28th highly likely suspects. OK just took a look at the weather expert Ken Ring’s email from January when he told me he expected snow for our region for 28th and 29th, so I seem to be on the right track here……..thank goodness…….

25th As above

26th Some static outbursts continue, but humidity is high and temps still seem sultry and mild with wind conditions nebulous and variable with northerlies and southerlies competing causing unsettled atmospherics. Some winter shower potential around along with some cloudiness but some sun spells.
27th Static and hazy conditions continue sun with cloud likely with the warmth going south leaving some mists potential mizzles and haziness or just cloud around early in the morning and evening.
28th A potential low operates and there looks to be a greater likelihood of windy weather and showery outbursts, some sleet or snow can shock some localities, but some clearer conditions by the afternoon this low looks more prevalent to the NW region where colder weather breaks out, but it will move slowly eastwards over coming few days passing us on its way. This system looks like a stormy outlook, showery rainy and a little gloomy. Cooler temps on previous days likely for next few days.
29th Cooler temps, very strong gusty westerlies clashing with easterlies creating blustery winds and showery outbursts as the low passes slowly east. Fogs or mists for evening
30th More showery stuff from the west before sunrise, winds continue gusty and blustery, but some sunshine expected to break out after sunrise but clouds around in the afternoon
1st Northerlies arrive and they usually bring in an attempt to clear things up a little, cold start but temps getting seasonally milder as day progresses, some cloud around with sun.
2nd Same as yesterday with some showery outbreaks risk for early morning but clearer outlook late afternoon and evening. Temps beginning to rise again…….

2nd May -10th
A static phase with some highs but this creates tendency for cracking thunder and lightening for many parts of UK which breaks out 4th-7th, but more likely for 5th in our region. My maps show low to he north with highs to the south and trouble when they meet………………………..
8th-10th will bring some showery conditions that are refreshing and clear up any residual static.

2nd As above, sun with cloud added, showers localised.
3rd Cooler outlook, easterlies bring in some broodiness, cold pockets around and air frosts likely overnight into 4th, mists and mizzles moves around UK with some hail and sleet outbreaks, most likely late evening for us.
4th Some squally conditions with WN Westerlies breeding occasionally very gusty air flows, sun with scurrying clouds. Some news of lightening strikes for some UK areas.
5th Our day for static outbursts -sporadic, intermittent with lightening and thunder likely.
6th Warmer temps today should be lovely bluer skies by the afternoon, variable winds with gusty westerlies strong at times. More static outbursts potential to some nearby regions –audible here also.
7th overnight air frost, cool outlook but fair weather gusty weather could continue
8th – 10th some fairer weather likely any showers will be refreshing and hopefully short-lived, pleasant outdoors even in the rainy spells– intermittent with variable winds continuing mostly westerly. This being a quarter moon the rule of thumb is drier conditions for midnight to mid-day.

10th -18th May
I’m trying so hard to find a good weather phase but am failing miserably, so let’s hope I got the whole thing wrong and the met says wonderful weather is about to break out….if only…
This map looks a little stormy and snow is likely to break out at any time on any day, when will we put it behind us I wonder. Floods to some regions west of us are also possible.
10th snow likely to be coming down of far NE of coast of Scotland, today is damp cool and breezy and may be strong at times snow is heralded for late evening…sorry about that…I could be wrong, but my chart says snow lands here around 22:19 and is likely to be heavy……..strong winds may accompany this influx
11th A warmer day so all that snow might thaw rapidly, it will be cloudier to the north today including us, with mists or lower visibility around sunrise but some outbreaks of hail and sleet showers also likely 607pm but no guarantees they don’t arrive at other times…
12th More snow potential by evening…………………………….cool during the day especially on high ground milder to southern parts of UK.
13th Sunshine with loud expected, weird and nebulous wind conditions turning north westerly could be some wind spouts, potential mists by evening and snow flurries not discounted
14th Icy, sunny, cool, breezy northerlies and westerlies calmer conditions.
15th Not the best day in fact mists mizzles and rainy outbreaks travel t/out GB today rain hail sleet and a bit of snow in the mix but skies clearer by late evening if you are sky watching…
16th A quick cloudburst not unlikely for start of day, temps moderate, breezy and occasionally very windy potential today gusty variable wind activity.
17th Warm and sunny with some cool pockets in shade and on high exposed areas settled outlook
18th Some icy sleet showery weather not long lasting sudden sporadic and intermittent auguring cold conditions temp wise. Wind activity variable lower temps, fairer to north GB.

18th-2 5th May
Hold on to your hats because this does look windy still BUT it does look like some fair weather breaks out…HURRAH……
Systems operating for this phase include real heat off south west coast of Ireland, oh the luck of the Irish,, the Orkneys look to be having fair weather too, it’s cloudier and more moderate from the Hebrides to mid south coast of England, while we get mostly fine conditions but any rain or gloom sets in while we are fast asleep….the 21st and 24th looks pretty temperate with some warmth to make seedlings spring up and sing.

18th- 21st looks like fair weather breaking out sleet showers still potential more to the south and eastern regions from 18th. Northerlies get strong on 19th and some cold pockets still remain in shade and on high ground, but fine weather for the daytime. 20th Fine skies for photography with gentler breeziness prevailing clouds forming later in the day and continuing overnight with some potential for sudden static outbursts continuing into early 21st. 21st Sees winds revving up and getting stronger north westerly and blustery as easterlies join in late afternoon, some showery outbreaks potential from very early morning, but temps rising during the day for a fair but very windy outlook till late evening.

22nd Looks to be higher temps kicking in warding off any cool pockets but some static build with mists or haze late evening potentially. Breezy weather.
23rd Blue skies some cloud breezy
24th lovely warm temps a hazy day, sun with cloud and gusty breezes
25th Today looks like some showery weather arrives by mid morning.

25th May -31st
The better temps are to SW tips of England -Cornwall– this phase. Wetter conditions prevail to NW Scotland, Ireland and SW Wales. A weather system passing down east coast moves further over to the continent from the outset. There is a flood or high precipitation warning for this phase but I think it will be in the wetter areas already mentioned to western regions.
Although temps do rise bring in some hope summer is around the corner, we get lower ranges of temps that break out for our region…sorry folks…go to Cornwall to get the best of the highs! East Anglia looks OK as well……

25th Fair for outdoors during the day, but some showery stuff could break out in localities around sunrise and evening around 6-7 pm, with fairer conditions southwards to us. Wins look gusty N Westerlies
26th Nice warm summery day shower potential till mid morning but some warmth in sun from mid day onwards
27th Some nice wool packed clouds in a bright blue sky, lovely outlook for photography, expect temps to rise again today.
28th Favours outdoors some easterlies turning southerly which can produce a little broodiness, but southerlies are warm but clouds breeding late evening, but a calm outlook weather wise for us.
29th Sporadic intermittent showery stuff could linger and be prolonged today, mists potential around sunrise after heat of yesterday breeding muggy conditions, I don’t see a lot of sun breaking out today.
30th Mists haze or cloud around to start the day, some finer weather by mid day as sun gets strong if it does break through the haze.
31st Similar to yesterday with the added ingredient of livelier windy weather but some fairer outlook can also arrive as sun gets stronger during the day. Mizzly and drizzly to western quarters if not higher levels of rain arriving with rivers at high to flood levels……………the conditions in the next phase see floods arriving in greater levels……………..read on

31st May -8th June

Wet, misty hazy foggy but some fair conditions to greet us as well. This is a Hollywood blockbuster weather movie with weather extremes battering Britain, and I can’t wait to see how it pans out. The plot is floods, floods, widespread floods and more floods and heavy rain when it arrives, record breaking weather breaks out. Flash floods to arrive, widespread, some misty dull weather to lowland in valleys and squalls covering limited areas and possibly near tornado outbreaks. Rivers will be flooding valleys, transport routes and flood plains for this phase…………………………………………..
Highs to SE tip of Kent at the outset, Ireland looks to get the worst of the downpours, rivers breach flood levels across the UK. 1st- 2nd looks set for thunderstorms breaking out.

31st Mists hazy start mizzles not unlikely, gusty westerlies, rain heavier to far western regions and to southern regions at this stage but it will move around the UK…..
1st Cold dry fronts from the north, dips to temps eastward with lows, rise in temps here, better temps milder to west but it does look like rain can circulate the UK today reminiscent of Jubilee days last year, oh dear, hope I am wrong….
2nd Showery outlook early morning could improve to sunnier later in day
3rd High humidity, mists near water, fairer to north, but some fair conditions as day progresses, calm outlook before the storm…….
4th Nice day sun with cloud, easterlies prevail so muggy atmosphere around.
5th should be a refreshing weather outlook even if a few showery localised arrive
7th Rise in temps today and over next few days, nebulous windy and muggy conditions, thick haze to lowland valleys, rising temps cloying and muggy, cloudy with cloudbursts expected, not good for air transport, scattered t/storms around UK, torrential rain expected with potential for flash floods and river breaches across UK western areas most affected….

8th-16th June
Some warm temps continue from 7th. Static, misty, muggy even squally to some parts and I expect very heavy precipitation to arrive with 9-11th singled out for first battering and overnight on 15-16th the second round of drenching levels leading to flood alerts. The general rule of thumb is the worst of the rainy weather arrives mostly from sunset to sunrise. More mists and mizzly breakouts to the west for this phase…..sea frets risks to those areas.

8th Strong westerlies gusty at time move away the southerly conditions yesterday and break into strong squally North Westerlies with unsettled outlook as a result of continuing conflicts between highs and lows. Some sun around between cloudiness but cool temps clash with warmth of rising temps in previous days, and there is a risk of whirlwinds and tornado breeding to midlands near eastern quarters.
9th A risk of heavy showers over to the west and south east, but they could also move over and reach our region later in the day, these could be hail sleet and snow mixed in, high ground vulnerable to snow elements more than us. This is Spring competing with summer and winter telling us not to forget to keep the wellies ready along with rain mac…..
10th Some sun might show its face between clouds coming over today, but with heavier outpourings coming overnight into early morning to sunrise on 11th Gusty westerlies keep things cool temps
11th Gusty westerlies and it looks squally for some regions inland misty and dull near rivers and watery areas, temps variable but sometimes trying to rise, Derry regions in Ireland as well as East Anglia seem to have some of the extremes around this date. Evening looks brighter but not for long as the bad conditions keep things dull again by 8 pm onwards approx.
12th Some finer conditions possible before sunrise, eastern areas look vulnerable to squalls whirlwinds and tornado breeding conditions, cold day but some sunshine. Mists and cloud could be difficult to get rid of near valleys by the afternoon and the risk of snow sleet or hail for 10 pm onwards, or it could just be fogs that I can see with news of blizzards biting hard and causing probs….
13th Some quick static outpourings again today but temps look more congenial, still on cool side, with the atmosphere getting fresher cold evening with clearer skies before midnight
14th Skies clearer at the beginning of the day around sunrise, a rise in temps fair outlook, rain again by late afternoon/ evening to northern regions and here, and northerlies revving up trying to clear up the muggy trends of former days…
15th better outlook today but don’t hold your breath….overnight rain expected again into 16th and rivers are by now at flood levels with southern and eastern parts of GB most at risk, sticky muggy day for 16th warmer temps but what a mess to some regions trying to dry out……..gusty NW might help a little but a risk of scattered t/storms also reigns.

Summer Long Range Forecast using original earth friendly satellite technology is already being viewed and will be posted asap……………..

Long Range Weather W Yorks and Yonder 2nd August – 24th

2-9th August
The low temps for the south continue to make themselves felt and this phase brings potential for high levels of precipitation, but having examined where this is going to be most felt I have arrived at the conclusion that a new business could now be established with a water carrier going out to sea to collect the massive amounts of rain water about to fall mid Atlantic for this phase…contact me for further details about where this new enterprise could be…..

Conflicting warmth and dryness with cool wetness defied teasing out for daily forecasts, so I decided to just stick to a tour of weather outcomes for the phase, though I think the cool wetness lies to the lower south and warmth and dryness is above Midlands and beyond to the north, though East Anglia looks like seeing more warmth and sunshine than we do…

Remember it is a Full Moon that brings barbecue time but this is a rather risky time (March2012) to forecast for consistency in weather outlook to support it. Usually a Full Moon does clear up bad weather, and we can expect better evening  than daytime weather…I’m not happy with this forecast at all….We usually get cooler nights for this time of the month as there is less cloud around overnight, but there is a lot of cloud and mist around for this phase.

2nd A sporadic showery outlook some sunshine between clouds. Temps climbing but humidity is high bringing mistiness near watery places. Seems like a calm before the storm develops today
3rd Mists and mizzles around especially near valleys and watering places, even fogs. Humidity is high  and thick hazes mists and fogs cause travel problems high humidity continues.
4th Similar outlook continues from yesterday but some some sunshine expected.  Scattered showers or mizzles potential around sunrise, but clearer outlook by evening
5th More settled now till 6th when at the start of the day some rain and heavy showers looks likely, the evening looks clearer

7th a quick downpour around sunrise again cool temps  sun with cloud and another showery outlook more prolonged by evening 7pm time
8th Temps look set to be warmer today and tomorrow  rising temps with southerlies

 

9-17th August

I had to track back a long way to see a similar chart to this rare display of weather outcomes..I also had to return to 1982 to see what Saturn battling with Mars brought while in fair weather sign Libra. I got lucky and found a brilliant account of severe thunderstorms from May till late summer accompanying this outlook and a wonderfully detailed account on the net,  of how bad weather battled with some high temperatures to create thunder and lightening during July 1982. However, in 1982 there were lots of other planets joining in the affray, and this isn’t happening this time around, though I do expect something exciting by the end of this phase in the form of t/storms and even high levels of precipitation to some parts of the UK with weather warnings in place….The first half of this phase is good but the change comes in from 12th when the air begins to get unsettled.

9th Looks like some showery weather coming in from the west but the air is generally refreshing and good for outdoors, we may escape with a few spits and spots blown in on wind, southerlies are strong with some mists to watery areas and still air, higher temps range and some sultry conditions by evening.
10th Should be a lovely serene summers day
11th Temps still seasonally high with wool packed clouds, any rain coming in should be out of the way 2-3am if it does wend its way here, some whistling breeziness could start up heralding some changes to come in the fair trends
12th Conflicting air currents between hot and cold begin to make themselves felt. There is humidity and static around and lightening strikes can begin to break out from today, warning of rain threats.
13th I expect our region to encounter some heavy outbreaks of rain today from early morning. Temps are still on the high if muggy side and mistiness is hogging some watery and lowland areas marring visibility Ipswich looks most affected by misty mizzly and drizzly conditions so I’ll be catching up with their weather outlook for this phase to check my forecast result.  The weather continues to remain unsettled as temps are on the rise again by the afternoon which is generally a fair outcome.
14th Some highs expected for 14th creating more static, while my money is on 15th for more lightening and thunder strikes which for some regions beyond ours will be awesome. Some lowland areas can expect windstorms
16th Seems like the weather is less unsettled with temps rising and some nice woolly cloud around. Some westerly breezes prevail.
17th brings another very high temperature day and some good weather but check any modifications to this in my next forecast…….
17th-24th August
This phase is unsettled and it took a while to decide that its migrating droughts hitting the headlines at this time of the year. I expect headlines similar to the ones we got for January this year when an avalanche hit Zermatt and Bosnia and beyond had the coldest temps on record to east of Europe…..I only wish I could spend more time analysing the trends across Europe to see how this will manifest weather wise for this summer, though I do expect the drought will be heavy to those parts, as will temps reaching viciously high levels……..
We have the conflict of highs and lows continuing, though I am trying to stay communicative in plain English rather than resort to obscure messages used by many forecasters. In a nutshell it seems that there is the threat of stormy outbursts, but somehow the planets prevent these from breaking out into too much rainy stuff and we get some high temperatures and fair weather, though breezes and gusty winds can interfere with smooth sailing….or help it along!
The conflict in fair and foul conditions centres over the middle of England from north to south and going across east coast of Scotland. It seems to convey that the drought for the eastern quarter, East Anglia especially, will continue to cause problems at this time of year. The fair is weather we all enjoy; the foul is a trend to parching conditions that isn’t good for harvests and farmers. 
Astro mets will know that the drought conditions are peaking now and won’t return to increasing heavy rainy wet conditions until 2017/19 when the planetary cycle reverses the trend for migrating droughts.

17th Fair weather around with high temp range, dry conditions but some risk of scattered localised showery conditions 5am and 5 pm time wise approx. Temps cooler slightly by evening.
18th Some gusty breezy/windy conditions NW for north Eng and Scotland especially and high ground, we will get gusty breeziness ad risk or more localised hail showery outbreaks, but this also goes with blue skies and fluffy cloud conditions.
19th Cloud with sunshine spells, cloudier outlook for morning  with more risk of scattered showers, some cloud coming over mid afternoon but clearer overnight skies into tomorrow morning, temps on seasonally warm. Windy from last night N Westerly
20th rising temps, abnormally dry conditions ruling, with clear skies risk of some scattered showers and southerlies blowing. Looks like an uncomfortably warm night as well….
21st Muggy conditions around today, haziness and static atmosphere, some breezes to keep things aired, some cloudburst potential late at night and into following morning
22nd Cloud and mizzles potential but a finer outlook for the afternoon, warmth from sun and night skies look clear.
23rd Moon is perigee today, close to the earth so exerting a strong pull on tides, cloudy start if not haziness for watery areas, temps still seasonally high today. The afternoon looks better than the morning for clearer skies and sunshine.
24th Hazes mists and cloudiness around today especially to lowland areas, southerlies active and gusty, warm temps and high humidity. Clear overnight skies

 

You can read the full summer season to end of August on  http://www. UKweatherbrief.wordpress.com

You can find out more about astro meteorology down the ages on my website at www.starsite.org.uk